danfrodo

Good thoughts from "the night crew" -- that's what I call the folks that post while UKR sleeps. Dan/CA, your point is excellent. Trying to undermine Belarus dictator seems like a cheap way to make a big, nonlinear event in this war. how possible is that? how unpopular is his regime and the war? Earlier post says the train folks don't like the war.

Ah, yeah, you are probably right. Use Belarus to secure supply lines & maybe RU units even take some Belarus BMPs & tanks. I sure hope the Belarus military stages a coup. That's the only hope Belarus has to not be treated the same as Putin's regime.

I hope the confidence many of us feel vs Belarus army is not hubris -- the gods punish hubris. So If they are staging at Gomel that is a long way from being able to cut supply lines. They have to move a long way west and will be spotted. Once they turn south UKR will know where they will cross the border. So what are they up to? Maybe cut supply lines by attacking south to the west of Kyiv. Maybe protect left flank of the RU western Kyiv forces. Maybe go east of the Dnieper to try to solidify the contested areas b/w chernihiv to bovary. I think this could be trouble just due to shear volume of forces if they move south to the east of the Dnieper. If they go west and then south (to cut Polish supply chain) they'll probably get ambushed every 5 km once they cross the border -- so I am hoping they do this. Nice long columns that need to make big advances.

well said, Kinophile. The only thing I'd add is that some actually smart person would've focused on ending corruption and making Russia's economy, education, and infrastructure work, while being a reliable business partner. Anyone Russian thinking that territorial conquest is the path to .... anything??-- is not smart in the first place; it's just ego, distorted nationalism and emotion doing the thinking.

While this information is still anecdotal, it does add to the growing list of anecdotes that support what US and NATO officials are describing as the "BFC Steve" scenario. This scenario is considered by senior diplomatic and defense officials as being, using technical language, "really fricking great".

Except that if Baltic states weren't in NATO he'd probably be picking them off one at a time right now and tackling Ukraine later. The reality is that Putin is a threat to the freedom and sovereignity of former USSR nations (and others) and the only thing keeping him on any kind of leash was fear of NATO article 5. Like w Hitler, he pushed and got away with it, did it again, and again, and so decided he was a genius and west was weak. Ooopsy.

And maybe this the future. Russia tries to dig in and UKR doesn't want to frontally attack. So UKR fights a war against supply lines and hopes the RU units will break as they run out of supplies. So can RU actually protect supply lines to all these disparate areas while having sufficient strength to make something that looks like 'front lines'? I guess we shall see.

Just got back from being 99% off-grid in the desert for a while, was good for my mental health. Too much work and too much Hitler -- I mean Putin. Caught up on posts, a lot going on, but seems that if something non-linear does not occur it could be long, bloody, destructive slog. I just checked weather for Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariopul. Warm days w no rain for a week. Are we now rooting for or against rain for those here how are pro-UKR?

Thanks, looks like fun!

Nice. This is a good reminder to me that I need to play some SF2 as canadians.

GODDAMMIT SBURKE STFU! yes, Kettler double posts. he is older and in ill health. WTF is your excuse for posting about every double post he does? Do you see how that immediately doubles the wasted space? then kettler responds, tripling the pointlessness. Do you not have a the ability to ignore or skim past something you've already see? Jeebus, get a f-ing grip. (And then I respond here, adding to the wasted space ) How about if someone double posts we all just ignore because we've already seen it? Instead of adding more useless BS to what is otherwise the best source of UKR war info around. And remember that folks are in different time zones and might have 5 pages to skim through from the night before. So folks might miss stuff.

how did this never occur to me? I've been really worried about distribution of the supplies coming in from the west. Turns out Ukrainians all have cars! This will go down in history. car companies should make truck and SUV commercials about "tough enough for Ukrainians, tough enough for you!". So when russian airforce goes hunting for supply lines, do they just shoot up every vehicle they see? probably make more sense to knock out bridges, but they can't knock out all the bridges.

So conspiracy mongering folks, LOTS of places have bio labs that study deadly pathogens. Where the F do you think vaccines come from? Do you think all the world's disease fighters just sit around and wait to be attacked by the next mutation of something. WTF does this have to do w anything? Please just stop. No one gives a F about this. It's not any excuse for this invasion and you are just feeding propaganda. Did any of you see the post from a couple days ago about idiots chasing shiny objects? Look in mirror. I guess I have a vacation coming but someone has to say STFU. GO SOMEWHERE ELSE W YOUR IRRELEVANT BS.

I think it's safe to say there will be very few prisoners taken of these fellas. Do they have any idea what they are walking into? and I am guessing they were 'volunteered' by Assad in thanks for all the murder and mayhem provided by Putin in Syria. I hope they all die, and soon, and badly.

even MORE captured T72s?!?!?! Those threads earlier about UKR having more tanks than they started with sure look like a good bet. I gotta say, this warms my heart. Every one of these destroyed/captured vehicles, often w a bunch of militia troops, old men, standing around admiring their own handiwork. This is becoming an avalance.

yes, l'm w Kraze here. Let's not waste forum space discussing the pretext Belarus stupidity. Like the bio-lab bulls-t. None of this matters because none of this is the reason for invading Ukraine. All that actually matters is that there's a war of conquest by a totalitarian dictatorship nation against a free, sovereign nation. And if Putin does somehow 'win' it will be a slaughter for Ukrainians + a new economic & civil liberty dark age.

What are the paths expected if Belarus does attack? how does that terrain look? I am hoping UKR can slow/stop any advances via ambushes & blown bridges & the like. It would be great to see the Belarus army march in, get smacked hard, then mutiny and go back home. What I worry about is that even a bad belaurus army has to be countered, and UKR already quite stretched. On the plus side, it could lead to coup in belarus, and yet another country turning away from Putin.

I hope these UKR infantry attacks don't get caught by russian artillery. They hopefully have enough missiles to fight off armor & helicopters, but arty could be ugly. Ambushes are a lot safer than attacks, as all us CM folks know.

(deleted a not nice post)

This is great. They forgot the other offer: or pilot can choose this nice $50k stinger missile.

Classic case of imperial overreach. Potemkin economy, potemkin military. The only thing real is the stranglehold this monster has over the state.

The videos we do see w abandonded/destroyed russian equipment show UKR folks just walking around without concern. Which perhaps indicates that those red areas on the situation maps should be polka dots, not solid areas. How is it that UKR is owning the terrain around these very valuable russian assets? Because as was stated earlier, they only control the land they stand on. Every new destroyed Russian unit makes me feel better as to Steve's 'collapse' theory

yes, too much distraction, but also some amazing content. More smashed russian units, the latest one from desertFox was tanks, not just trucks & light armor. There's some punching going on.

Yeah, good point. Once they sell out the current inventory, it's over.

I have multiple thoughts on this. One, as expected, we see UKR troops off the main roads, I am guessing they are working into ambush position for RU troops near roads. Two, they are just bristling w AT weapons. Three, DANG THAT IS SCARY! Out there in the woods w nothing but twigs between a soldier and AK rounds; this aint paintball. Brave men, well armed. My hat is off to them. I hope their hunts were successful. Four, the assymetry of small infantry teams w AT moving to attack the roadbound RU units w multi-millions of dollars of gear.