danfrodo

I saw some good news today. I've been worried about how well the pipeline of weapons is getting to the front. NYTimes article today indicates that US supplied weapons were actually getting there very quickly. I was thinking bureacracy and logistical friction would cause long delays. And now I hope for some kind of non-linear event to break the current flow of events. I was hoping for Putin to be overthrown somehow, but that hasn't happened. Maybe a better chance is for mass mutinies of russian units who are hungry & scared. We see it on very small scale as perfectly fine vehicles being abandoned, but hopefully it will spread. Or if not mutinies then low enough morale that units are not combat effective, falling back immediately upon taking fire.

That's a great campaign. One thing I'd say is keep the T34-85s back and engage w the shermans. Don't want to lose the bigger guns to AT guns and then run into a panther. Also make sure to take good ground level view of the terrain. Understanding the dead ground and fields of fire is critical. There's some pretty fierce fights in that campaign. Some battles start easy and them BAM you're in a serious fight w powerful german forces.

The russian authorities seem to be leasing buses for the protestors, which maybe tells us something. I've seen the buses in multiple videos w the courageous and possibly doomed shoved onto them. So will Putin kill thousands of his own people? Send them to gulags? keep them in prison? -- and where's he gonna get the prison space? Maybe he'll contract w USA's private prison industry.

definitely a lot of signs of desperation on russian side. Civilian trucks being hauled in, maybe just grabbed from their russian owners by military? that should anger the populace. Russian still has huge numbers it can bring in, but if they are truck-jacking their own people that's an interesting sign.

adding on to earlier posts: There's lots of talk about other actors seeing Ukraine war and thinking they should make a move. That's why it's so important to make sure everyone knows that actions like this will bring huge costs for their rather questionable gains, if any. Already, even if the Russians finally take Kyiv & some territory, anyone w eyeballs will see it is a $100 spent for the purpose of gaining a penny. So I am w Steve et al on this. Ukraine war makes other actors much less likely to misbehave. They are watching how desperate Putin is right now and that's w one of the most secure dictatorships on earth. China is not launching amphibious attack on taiwan -- why would they, when they can just pound Taipei w cruise missiles until Taiwan makes concessions. And Erdogan is not nearly as secure as Putin, especially give that elements of his military tried to overthrow him rather recently.

they fled after artillery strike? I'd rather flee an arty strike in a vehicle, but this is a nice UA outcome. I keep asking myself if I'm being deluded by anecdotal evidence, but there's just too many of these abandoned vehicles to deny to that russian army has a very serious morale issue. This a powerful unit and they all just fled under fire? And the earlier video showing entire russian arty battery completely destroyed, that's says UA still has organized army, not just hit & run. Another thing is that is interesting is how there's no front line for the russians. All these ambushed convoys and then UA & militia troops just milling about, unconcerned. So the red areas on the maps maybe should be red polka dots.

So Putin now decides to take an american woman basketball star hostage?????

my gawd, that convoy is like a mile long. Dozens of vehicles. what did this??

Yo, let's not punch a man who sounds like out-suffered nearly all of us when it comes to war, pariticularly wars built on lies

Belittled? not my me. Thanks for sharing that. Note that I was strongly opposed to the invasion of Iraq, knowing then as I do now it was just a powerplay by Cheney et al, duping a lazy, incurious president into a gigantic mess. And hurting your so, permanently. That doesn't mean that all those kids that signed up & served were in the wrong, they were brave and served and fought and died and were maimed in something they thought was right. I also, through reading only, not through your experience, know that the vietnam war was a bright shining lie, to steal a phrase. So we agree. The only thing we disagree on is whether this new war is justified for international intervention. Is this whole thing another bright shining lie? You don't want intervention. You may totally be right. I at least want us to forge out a big safe zone in western Ukraine before it's (possibly) too late. I am looking months out and thinking european nations will start feeling overwhelmed by refugees, and nasty demagoges will use that to gain power. So my safe zone is about helping the displaced, keeping Ukraine alive, and also showing Putin there's a hard line he better not cross, while knowing that there's probably a refugee backlash in the near future. I get that direct intervention is probably a really bad idea. But I still like the safe zone.

While direct attacks of any sort by NATO forces would be big escalation, the safe zone would be emphasized as humanitarian and defensive. Yes, arms would leave that safe zone for the east and Putin will flip out over that, but that makes it all that much better. If he attacked those NATO forces he could really get hurt badly by retaliatory strikes; badly enough he might actually be compelled to remove forces from much of Ukraine.

Bulletpoint, I have only one question for you that really matters: When the hell is Borgen season 4 coming out??? And if this war is delaying that then I definitely think NATO should intervene. Nyborg would vote for the safe zone, I am completely confident of that. This is Danmark's best export and I want it now!

My rational mind thinks you are quite right, Bulletpoint! But I am completely enraged at this and am tired of cowering from despots who use the "watch out, I'm craaaaaaazy!" threat to intimidate others. So I want a safe zone declared in western Ukraine, protected by NATO land and air forces (I think this is not an insane idea). And I want US drones to start attacking Russian columns (this might be insane).

ohhhh, thanks Haiduk. So the convoy was actually attacked, but covered by snow. what a great treasure for the defenders. I hope lots of good supplies. Glory to the heroes of the courageous nation of Ukraine! I am voting for western air forces to attack ASA, at least drones, but I am unfortunately I am not in charge.

I wonder why there was no one there? no dead bodies? no blood? wtf? And it looks like a large convoy indeed. There's just so many of these videos now. And like Steve said, if a company or battalion has supplies planned via said convoy, it's not like there's another bunch of trucks & supplies sitting around as a backup. It would take a lot of time to put together a replacement convoy, which would also be robbing vehicles and supplies from somewhere else.

wow, what amazing coverage of this war. Definitely better than anywhere else. So, what does Putin know? does he see these videos of entire columns captured, mostly intact? Does he know that all that fancy equipment that parades past him in Moscow doesn't actually exist in the field? My point is that he might actually only be hearing what he wants to hear. When upper management (in this case, Putin), trains an organization over years that he wants to hear good news, that's what will be provided. So does he actually have a realistic idea of what's going on? I am sure he does at home level, but does he see these videos? On the fighting side of things, it seems that while russians advance along main roads, their supply/support tails are being attacked since the advance bypasses so much terrain. So the russians don't have enough troops to both advance and to actually pacify the areas they advance through. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are getting nicely supplied by taking all the stuff that's supposed to feed the enemy advance. This is amazing. And it works because the Ukrainians aren't giving up once their area has bad guys driving through it, as would normally be the case for most people. And so now he bans facebook, et al, in desperate attempt to keep folks in the dark. But anyone w half a brain would know that doing this means Putin is covering something up. So here's to hoping there's a lot of folks w more than half a brain.

I am not saying I am surprised by things being roadbound and the implications. I am saying I was struck by how a very small force could have significantly disproportionate results in ways that were not available in WW2. Blocking a dutch road and knocking out tanks required close combat if it's panzerfaust or panzershreck. If it's AT gun it's highly immobile and so can fire can be concentrated on that point via direct fire or mortars. But modern squad is killing w ATGMs at hundreds of meters and can displace w/o abandoning equipment.

So Putin cuts Facebook & other forums, and law coming out w 15 year sentence for contradicting official war propaganda. Interesting just how much he fears folks knowing things. It says he does worry about public opinion. It'll be interesting to see how well the Big Lie works there. Goodness knows that utterly absurd Big Lie campaigns never work in the 'civilized' and educated west ....... There was video of reporter asking Russians, on camera, what they thought -- like they are gonna tell the truth on something as widely viewed as CNN! They'd be arrested ASAP.

wait, coke is not doing anything about Russia? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO diet coke is the last vice I have left. I haven't had a drink in 20 years and now coke stabs me in the back when it's all I have left?

On the tactical side of things, I am struck by how much can be done w so little. With the mud, the russian forces are mostly roadbound. As they venture onto smaller roads passing through woods & villages the leading vehicles are hit. The entire avenue of advance just backs up (we know this because the videos are made by the UA forces who own the territory after the attack). So it's interesting how in these conditions of mud and mostly smaller roads, even a squad or two can close an entire battalion group pretty easily. Hit hard, either displace or wait for the next sortie to come down the road. If spotting shells come in, run back to next position and wait. ATGMs (+ courage!) really are wonder weapons.

is a joke, yes. If they lost zoom chat, then they'd be doomed.

I use a mix of linux & MS systems all day, every day. It used to be that the linux systems were insanely better. Now, both are actually really really good. But those forced updates are sure a nice place to wreck every laptop in russian military....

Or be more subtle and just do the forced updates that take forever and ever. Then have the updates add memory leaks that drive computer into the ground, needing reboot w yet another forced update. Russia will be screaming for mercy in no time. Oh, wait, this is my life already! (in all fairness, MS OS & SW has gotten infinitely better than it used to be, but makes for a good joke still)

why does putin need to take ukraine to stay in charge? I'm not following that. The biggest risk to his power he could possibly take was trying to take Ukraine.

I believe this would be an allusion to the rumors that Putler will declare martial law?