danfrodo

Russians still have teeth, unfortunately. Very sad to see, Haiduk. My condolences for the ongoing murders of your countrymen. Hopefully in the expected Russian Donbas offensive they will once again go full Guderian and race down single roads, heedless of securing any width. Then Ukraine forces can cut them off and chop them up. Definitely a lot easier than trying to displace dug in troops that have supplies.

wow, thanks for sharing that video. Really shows just how badly russians got hit here, and the intensity of the fighting.

Saw last night and today that poll shows 83% of russians support war against ukraine. This is an absurd thing to report as if it's true. In a country where even calling it a 'war' gets you 15 years in prison, who's gonna tell the poll they oppose it? It'd be like looking at popularity polls of kim jong un in N Korea. "new poll shows 100% popular support for N Korean leader, deeply contradicting what outside experts were saying"

I see some interesting thoughts above on how what happens in the south will shape the end game. I am hoping Ukrainian forces can cause some serious collapse of Russian forces in vital sectors so as to negate the current Russian gains. But that sounds very difficult unless there's plenty of rot in the Russian forces there.

Machor, thanks for your thoughts. I was NOT in any way sending any shade your way. It's always good to question our narratives. I am always looking for an excuse to pee on Bret Stephens, though. He has written some unbelievably stupid s--t and every time I see one of his pieces I consider cancelling my NYTimes subscription. In this he comes up w a hypothesis that doesn't even fit the known facts. It's astonishing. An intelligent version of the article would have been "Putin can still pull a pyhhric victory out this by taking the natural gas fields and further emasculating his opposition". But that's a long way off from being so stupid as to even dream this was some brilliant scheme. This is a flaming fiasco but he still could end up taking things from Ukraine. At great cost, insane cost.

I think I get the gist of the article, it's just that he could've done all this at far lower cost and much faster if that had been his actual plan. It's a nice what-if but it just doesn't fit the facts. Putin thought he would get everything, including the natural gas, by an invasion/coup. Now he's going to have to fight just for the gas.

I think getting the 4th guards tank brigade destroyed was pure genius! Not to mention purging much of his officer corp!

I am biased against anything serial dumb-ss Bret Stephens says, but this is rich. Putin could've just done a feint in the non-natural gas regions and then made his big push on the principal strategic sector. Instead Putin gets his army smashed and still doesn't have the resources that Stephens thinks the wily genius is after. Stephens I guess is taking a break from explaining to us plebians how the science for climate change isn't settled. I wish NYTimes would fire him, he's a disgrace. Putin didn't need to totally and completely F-- up this war in order to clamp down on dissidents. What ridiculous crap.

could also be yet another pathetic attempt at political spin: "look,this miltary operation is a coalition of freedom loving folk from all over the world coming to rid Ukraine of nazis".

well, on a sidebar kind of topic. I do hope this results in lots of interest in CMBS. I've seen some really good youtube videos that really show how good BS is at simulating what's actually going on. One BS video showed ambush of a convoy that was right out of the feeds we see from Ukraine.

I believe UltraDave on this forum has a PhD in nuclear engineering so hopefully he'll chime in

Thanks Haiduk. Sad reminder that killing bad guys means good guys get killed also and that Russians are still men w weapons. Must've been some heavy fighting.

Area was full of poultry farms. So you are saying price of chicken wings will go up. Dammit! This was must end!

Even time I look at tv news (rarely) there's some "very serious person" spouting nonsense. At lunch break today I popped open a youtube video of some guy on CNN explaining the Ukraine map to us. He had giant red zones of areas where the Russians haven't been for days. When he spoke of the current Russian withdrawals he said "there's always the chance they are just regrouping for another push on Kyiv". They just can't give it up. Absurd. It's like him saying "There's always a chance they are regrouping for a strike on Berlin, or Seattle, or Tokyo" -- that chance being zero.

And I forgot to mention this good news. The young tech experts probably have good information on the war's reality relative to the general population. And they have the valuable skills that allow them to prosper outside of north korea -- ooops, meant russia, weird I would make that mistake. This shows how very scared russia is of a brain drain. Yet another effect of being a pariah state under heavy sanctions with a currency no one wants.

Wow, lots of good news today. Retreats, spies being expelled. And why have Russian missions & diplomatic staff at all? they are a pariah country. Should be absolute bare minimum. Russia is a dangerous animal which can only change if Putin removed, and of course might not get better even then.

Wrong answer, Billbindc -- not because it's incorrect, it's just not what I wanted to hear . That's the same thought I had. Russians get northern forces heads out of the noose, but don't pull out of Ukraine.

So, smart folks, what do you think the retreat from Kyiv/Chernihiv means as far as opening opportunities for Ukraine in the south or elsewhere? Or are the Russians not retreating far enough to really release much of the UKR northern forces? I'd love to see UKR make big gains in the south, but not sure how realistic that is.

"lovecraftian beast", nice . you should trademark that.

Right right right, of course! I read an entire book on WW2 crimea (by forczyk) and shoulda thought of that. That isthmus, you don't have to own it to cut it, great point. Ya just gotta get close enough.

WTF did I just see.... that is beyond words. I guess that's the diff b/w conscripts and people actually fighting for survival and freedom.

Maybe on the Mariupol front the best move is to try to cut off russians who are concentrated in the area of mariupol, IF there's weak flanks that can be hit. Then russians have to go into attack to secure their supply lines. And the lighter UKR forces are best w russian forces trying to attack. While we've talked a lot about the end of tanks, I am still thinking UKR folks would like a whole lot more tanks.

my apologies Homo_Ferricus, good point. I'll delete it

deleted, someone pointed out it was silly and they were correct

So Zelensky saying neutrality is possible, other concessions are possible. Unless there's a russian collapse or big UKR military victory, some things will have to be lost in negotiations. But I also believe it's totally OK to just unilaterally abrogate the treaty whenever UKR feels safe enough to do so. They are being held hostage so any treaty is really just a ransom.