danfrodo

Some posts earlier questioning the efficacy of the soon to be shipped Ukrainian MIGs relative to russian AD. The vast majority of Ukraine is not under russian AD. Ukrainians supplies & forces & civilians move through that country and are vulnerable to air attack. So the MIGs could help a lot by contesting Ukrainian airspace. Only in a ground support role or over the battle areas would they start to engage w Russian AD. Hopefully they will plant lots of 100% russian pilot-based sunflowers!

I hope your forces can cut off and crush that column. Hopefully they are roadbound and vulnerable, especially their follow-on supply convoys.

Obviously NATO budgets need to increase so that future versions of CM will have more gear for us to play with. Why else?

So, another morning passes in Ukraine we still don't see the great offensives that have been predicted by so many folks? Will it actually happen? Do they have the resources? every day that passes makes me more confident that Russia is unable to mount these offensives. Those narrow, single road advances have to be a death ride for the supply troops. Like giant versions of "hell's highway" from operation market garden -- which is actually a pretty good analogy of what's happening now.

Thanks for that Suchy, it's what I was thinking. By handing over the planes to NATO there is collective responsibility, not just Poland. Good for everyone. If Putin wants to start WW3 over weapons transfers, it's not like he needs to wait for some specific legalistic breach no the part of the west.

and there he goes again, geeeez, y'all are killing me. I think Steve's right about pundit land. They have been caught being wrong but are doubling down thinking they are still right it's just that Russia hasn't brought in the reserves. But we're seeing the reserves -- it's civilian vehicles on trains and syrian terrorists. Why would Russia even mention a little 1000 man syrian force in its own propaganda? Doesn't that show it's running out of men? Or is it to pretend they have a coalition? If Russia needs such help it shows desperation.

I need to make a complaint about this forum. I have a ton of work to do and need to deliver results every day right now. And the people here are mostly providing thoughtful, insightful, and well reasoned posts which are significantly impeding my productivity. So if you could all instead make inane posts w worn out cliches, I would greatly appreciate it.

and why will countries increase their production? TO MAKE MONEY. Oil prices very high so there's big opportunity. If country X says "I'll wait to increase to drive up price" then country Y says "I'm gonna pump a bunch of oil right now and rake in the bucks while the others are waiting.' This ALWAYS happens, where some country needs to make money while it can w/o the increased competition from the other suppliers. So, despite the very funny meme above, countries will increase production. Because holding back will simply lose them a lot of money, and make no mistake, they love money just as much as US & EU. There's an empty hole b/w supply and demand w/o russian oil. If any one country can fill that hole by themselves, they are gonna get rich fast. So pretty soon they will all be trying to fill that hole, whether they admit it or not.

That certainly seems to best fit the evidence at hand. If Putin thought he'd have multi-week fight he wouldn't have assumed he was gonna be at Hostemel airport in first day or two to relieve the airborne units -- and it seems he did a lot of these insertion operations which all failed miserably but only make sense if you think the big boys are gonna show up & save the day pretty quickly. I suspect in the end Ukraine will give up Crimea and maybe half the disputed donbass territories, just to get clear borders. And will apply to join NATO ASAP. They will never agree to not join NATO, that could be suicide. And now Finland in NATO. Yeah, Putin, this was brilliant. Everything you didn't want to happen you have achieved! United europe w increased military spending, more NATO presense on your border, Ukraine heading for EU and NATO. And your own economy and military in shambles. He's a real genius, just like we've been told many times!

Hey Vet0369, sorry if that came across as testy. Uncalled for. I should not have watched update on the baseball lockout then commented on anything -- high class problem compared to Ukraine, I know.

So if the russians actually launch the offensives many believe are imminent during current 'regrouping' phase, then they could easily get to tipping point casualties. There's this two narrative worlds that seem to have evolved: either russians are nearly spent and totally f-ed this whole thing up. Or this is all going according to plan and they are just doing planned regrouping for the long ago planned week 2 assaults. I am wondering if Putin will now go full psycho and threaten to blow up nuclear power plants, releasing radiation over vast areas. So which way does the wind generally blow in Ukraine in March? If he's dumb enough to attack during mud season I don't suppose he'd check the prevailing wind direction either.

That's a very interesting point. How would russia hold this long stretch of terrain w hostile population, possibly partisans hitting their supply lines (made of trucks stolen from russian small businesses). UA could cut the land bridge of the overstretched and under supplied front.

Meanwhile, today England invaded Normandy since it had always been an integral part of the kingdom of england until illegally usurped by the perfidious French. Bunch of technicality foolishness that is nothing but pretext for conquest.

That's kinda my point. Anyone can make a claim to Ukraine, and it's all totally irrelevant to what's happening now because it's all just a pretense for a violent land grab. F-ing Mongolia once ruled Ukraine also. None of this matters. I am not some dumbf-k just off the turnip truck. My point is that this is all completely and utterly beside the point. The vast majority of Ukraine doesn't want Russian rule, and are willing to risk death to avoid it. Putin initiated a violent overthrow of 30-year established Ukrainian sovereignity, and what happend 70, 100, or 400 years is all just piss in the wind relative to that.

I'm just messing w you, DesertFox I know it's all very complicated. The only thing that's not complicated is that the Ukrainian people today, overwhelmingly, do not want to be citizens of Russia, and 30 years they were able to do something about it.

Kiev is historical heart of Russia? So by that reasoning then Zelensky should be president of Russia, and Putin the provincial governor.

Amazing footage. And at the risk of a vacation..... TAKE THAT M-F-ERS!!!!

I just checked weather forecast for south, Kyiv, and Kharkiv. No rain. Some light snow, but cooler temperatures. We need some wet weather.

So dumb question: what happens to a russian AFV or tank that is out of fuel? Can you still rotate the turret on a MBT? on BMPs? Are they defenseless or just degraded in turret speed? What other issues would arise? I'm asking this because of how it affects what a crew would do when stranded. A low morale crew vs a high morale crew might make different choices if still able to fight.

Here's a great look at a group of local Ukrainian heroes fighting and winning for days on end. Commanders says russians have abandoned he doesn't have enough people to collect it all. That ties in w what Steve is saying. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-beats-russia-mykolaiv.html

that was brilliant movie. Putin can go the way of Beria in the movie, I hope. W some general doing the deed.

From Steve's keyboard to God's ears. So what does this russian military collapse look like do you think?

I hate seeing a bunch of conscript kids being killed & wounded, but that's what it's come down to. Either russian conscript kids die or a free, independent democratic nation dies, along with lots of its citizens. Every destroyed convoy warms my heart. And if the drivers escaped in panic back to their own lines to lower morale and cause more panic, that's a pretty good outcome w/o lots of dead russian kids.

Hey all, there's so many posts that it's easy for someone to miss something. So there's some duplication. But multiple posts duplicating complaints about multiple posts then me saying let's not worry about posts about multiple posts takes up more space than simply ignoring multiple posts and posts about posts about complaining about multiple posts.

I hear you Aragorn. Unlikely, but I am hoping for non-linear events to change the current trajectory. And yes, it's is just a hope, not a prediction. Think of ceaucescu (sp?) of Romania, late 80s. Never thought he could fall. Then BAM he's in a courtyard being shot. These things can happen. What is more likely is that they'll run out of fuel trucks! Yet another fuel truck convoy destroyed/captured. and now there's trains w what appear to be commandeered civilian trucks. That's reeks of desperation.