danfrodo

There's a huge swath of territory in the south from which Putin can make trouble. I think UKR can contain it. But "that's why they play the game" as we say in USA -- we don't know until there's either an offensive by RU or not, and what kind of gains RU can make. I am voting for "RU drives down single roads w powerful armored columns which are cut off and destroyed". I think Aragorn is not saying RU will encircle or probably will, only that it is still a danger until we know more.

I guess that settles the whole "is Kraze out of line" question. I can't criticize anyone for hating people who come to their country to kill and enslave them.

yet another destroyed Russian mech platoon. And once again a lot of good gear lost. Plus pile of dead soldiers. Should've taken the surrender money while they still had time. How can Russia continue to take such losses and still have offensive capabilities??

I think Aragorn is warning us all not to count our chickens before they are hatched, which is an american phrase for 'hubris'. There is a lot of stolen territory in the south that UKR needs to liberate, but Russians are still strong down there. I still hope for Russians in the south pushing more troops into places they can be more easily destroyed, thinking they are advancing but are actually working themselves into traps. Just me wishing, though. If the russians are beat up enough then UA, once receiving the newly trained units and new (& used) equipment from the outside, can push the depleted russians back beyond the Feb22 boundaries. But another historic day for the Ukraine's fight for freedom! Kyiv region recovered, big Russian loses.

Local collapse, excellent. So looks like most or all of a company dropped everything so they could flee across a river. Makes one wonder what they were running from? -- I am guessing well armed, angry UA force. They even threw away their personal weapons, body armor, everything. I hope we see more of this.

Wow, that is quite a haul! Two MBTs and ~7 armored BMPs. That's a big chunk of a BTG. Warms my heart. The russian losses are just incredible and it keeps going on. Nice ambush, must've been something to see.

I wonder what the russian airborne corps did to upset the Putin so much that he has so purposefully and actively been sending them to their deaths. In general in Izium, I am hoping that the UA pullout will lead to Putin et al driving lots of forces across the river into an ambush. Just hoping. Easier to destroy them this way, trapped w river at back and UA holding high ground. I can just picture Putin looking over a map, like Hitler in days of old, saying "now we've got them! Everything attack here, right now! the enemy is broken! Send in airborne troops & armor immediately!"

Russians have lived in a corrupt kleptocracy for generation after generation after generation. So I am not surprised at the looting. It flows from the top down. But on the brighter side, the flood of weapons I've been praying for is starting to come. I am seeing long range artillery, armored vehicles. Hopefully next we'll see those Euro stockpiles of tanks moving east. This could change things in a very dramatic way over the next couple months. I am assuming Ukraine is not going to agree to let Russians stay on any land that it didn't already have on Feb 22, and will be wanting to drive them out. Doing Steve's infantry-based local attacks + the ability to exploit w armored/mechanized troops sounds good to me.

wow, they don't even destroy the equipment. they just walk away. Some more nice stuff for the Ukrainian army.

x

the great Anne Applebaum smacking us all upside the head (we deserve this)

So UK sending long range artillery system to Ukraine, it's reported. Anyone else seen this? Looks like my hope that there'd by heavier weapons system sent is starting to come true!!!!

Hopefully this will hinder any russian attacks in the south. Probably won't matter much up north since russia not manuevering, just retreating or digging in

Weird, it's almost as if this ISW guy is saying Putin is a thieving lying serial murderer that can't be trusted. And hopefully every country will get this message and never ever let Russia normalize w the world until Putin is gone.

I'm with Lethaface on polls in Russia. They know they are being watched and only a fool would tell the truth to some unknown pollster.

Putin has sent a very clear message to the world "I cannot be trusted and my only goal is complete domination of everything possible". He's also been sent a very clear message back from Ukraine and the world "I am a losing proposition and if you are tied to me you will sink also" So it'll be interesting what his allies, like Belarus, choose to do going forward.

Yeah, just like the entire city or Mariupol was civilians' homes w no connection to the military. Putin sure has some chutzpah.

How long before some pundit says "aha, brilliant Putin plan again! The oil depot strike doesn't matter because Russia has chosen to lessen its dependence on motorized vehicles. The Ukrainians have again played right into their hands by removing those wasteful vehicles, thus alleviating a big Russian supply burden." But seriously, I really like the fuel depot strike. Like was mentioned above, attacking soft targets in what Putin thought was his safe rear areas will force him to put increasingly scarce resources into protecting those areas.

Thanks Chibot (and Steve). This is what I was wondering about. So UKR is showing good flexibility and not dogmatically holding ground. Reminds me of Yelnya in July-august 1941 on the Smolensk front, where Guderian obsessively held onto the salient despite the terrible cost. Germans ended up pulling out later, achieving nothing except losing valuable resources, time, and mobility (despite killing lots of russians).

My oh my, what a lot of excitement over my night, Ukraine day. 1. fuel depot strike: looks like the ammo depot explosion last week might not have been an accident. And Putin might use this as a provocation for escalation except that he could just make something up if he wants to escalate. Plus it seems so far that it's more embarrassing for him to publicize this than it is useful to him for propaganda. 2. Armored vehicles being sent to Ukraine: so maybe we're past the whole foolishness of sending 'defensive' weapons only. Hopefully the floodgates will open for tanks, planes, helos. 3. What does Izyum retreat mean? Is it just a tactical withdrawal because holding that salient was not longer worth it and freed up forces for use elsewhere? Or is it a defeat? 4. we've seen a very large number of destroyed russian vehicles last few days. This has got to seriously impact their offensive capabilities. 5. and looks like there's some russian troops who missed the chance to escape from Kyiv areas. Warms my heart.

is that a panzerfaust on that guy's back?

Well, Haiduk, I see your Ukrainian army has fallen into genius Mr Putin's brilliant trap of destroying more of his army while he cleverly takes everything he actually wanted! How long will the Ukrainians continue play right into Putin's hands by destroying his entire northen army?? And all this despite being warned by the genius NYTimes columnist Bret Stephens!

A picture's worth a thousand words. Look at all those holes? And from arty? Wow.

Note to russian soldiers in Nova basan: this would be a really good time to disappear from your unit and surrender. That BTG is probably gonna get smashed given that it has to move through contested (maybe better word is 'infested') areas to get back to friendly lines.

Beeeyuuuuteeeeful! That's one unit that won't be causing trouble down south! I hope to see more of this, russian forces getting smashed while trying to run away. And might start more of the panic/mutiny/collapse we've been wanting. But most of all this is less force for other sectors.