danfrodo

I agree, it's been weighing quite a bit on my mind also. Supposedly 2400 attack drones from Iran in RU inventory. A very big concern. Won't make UKR give up, but will dramatically increase suffering. Might be a factor that drives UKR to the table earlier than they'd otherwise like, but I suspect only after at least getting back to Feb 2022 borders.

excellent point. The other side of the coin is a stalingrad analogy. Hitler was right that stalingrad kessel was tying up lots of soviet troops (ignoring the fact that only immediate withdrawal/breakout would've saved them). So an operational victory buying some time but at the cost of losing the entire force in the kessel, which is what that kherson operational victory would mean, even if its defeat doesn't come for 3 or 4 months from now. And like Hitler, Putler is also hoping for some miracle, somehow pulling rabbit out of a hat that actually has no rabbit.

One small quibble w the TheCapt, and w the bigger narrative on UA vs RU right now. I would change the end of the above sentence to say "though falling back, is NOW holding", not still holding. RU just lost a gigantic swath of territory in the biggest victories and advances seen since after the first week or so of this war. The loses in Kharkiv region were astonishing, including the region's #1 supply hub, Kupyansk. In Kherson they just lost ~1/3 of the kessel. U Things have slowed down now due to a number of factors. Supply, weather, wear and tear, need for rest, RU falling back on interior lines, RU moving more forces onto the Svatove front (incl mobiks) -- all these factor into what's happening now w/o having to start thinking here's something wrong suddenly w UKR. The success they just had was phenomenal but RU getting stronger on shorter, interior lines doesn't mean UKR tactics won't work again. Did any of us really think UKR would've collapsed the entire RU army by now? So there's nothing more wrong w UKR than there was a few weeks ago. And there's nothing more right about RU army than there was a few weeks ago. RU's supply situation has gotten worse, they've lost a ton of equipment, and they've completely lost arty superiority. And they are about to donate a mountain more equipment to UKR when Kherson falls, unless they actually sabotage all their vehicles before they flee -- pretty doubtful given past performance.

sorry if this was already shared, but I just saw it and thought it was good. BBC news video w some small arms combat.

I gave a like for this but if I could spend a second on it I would . BFC opsec is the world class!

They are not Ukraine skeptics. They are enablers of authoritarianism. They love Putin, they love Orban. Let's not play word games. They don't care about spending, or war, they care about supporting dictators.

Well, those men will be need to get the Baltic states and Poland and Finland. Those are next on the list. Will be totally worth it. The current sanctions were severely degrading the RU economy, and now mobilization (+ folks fleeing country) seems to be wreaking havoc on top of that. So how is it that some folks still think RU is able to sustain this disaster over the next year or more??

Next we will get the bizarro-world orwellian newspeak where RU says taking Kherson is Ukraine invading Russia.

I sure hope CM has plans for stuff like this. What fun Brits, et al, would be in CM.

YAY AMERICA! I am sure I really don't like this guy and right now he's my favorite politician. Back on the evacuation -- so do the learned members of this forum concur w the opinion on the earlier post that only ferries are available for evac?

Speaking of the right thing, anyone know how buses are supposed to be going over the Dnieper?? Antonovsky? Ferries? The dam?

Meanwhile, in the senate Rand Paul will again say things on the senate floor that if spoken on this forum would have him banned as a paid RU troll. Fortunately the majority of GOP senators will do the right thing.

COLLAPSE!!!!!! I love it! But I don't want any of these murderer/kidnappers in kherson civil admin getting away. I don't want more kidnapping. How are buses still using the bridge???? Shut it down and make them surrender. And now we play the ongoing game of "how much disaster can Putin survive?". It appears there's just no way to topple him, he's too surrounded by his loyal guards, I guess. Doesn't anyone in power care more about Russia than they do about Putler?

Hopefully we won't need to pivot to China. Hopefully US & China will make the smart decision and realize economy matters a lot more than some piece of land somewhere and to not kill the goose that lays golden eggs just for some nationalistic stupidity.

Right on, Billy Ringo! Let's all work together and make the world a better place. Starting w a serious *** whuppin' on the greatest terrorist in the world.

I think he would look nice as a lamppost decoration. Yeah, you better run.

Putin being a genius yet again. Launching terror attacks on UKR civilians which is on TV news in US every single day. With support for UKR already at 66% and Putin slaughtering civilians and actually boasting about kidnapping UKR children, It will be interesting to see if a MAGA congress can actually shut off the funding. Putin is not making US folks waver by demonstrating, every day, that he's a monster killing women and children. The GOPers on this forum who are going to vote for these GOP candidates wouldn't stand for removing UKR funding, I believe. As much I disagree w them on other items, this is a place we all can easily see right vs wrong. GOP is supposed to stand for freedom against tyranny. Let's see the leadership walk that walk instead of their spiritual leader actually praising a serial mass murdering, child kidnapping destroyer of cities (and economies). The vast majority of GOP members of congress and the senate have been honorable and steadfast in doing the right thing, let's see that continue. If not, get on the phone and email and give the candidate you supporting a solid bit of your mind -- they do listen sometimes, especially when they know you are a GOP voter.

So why is it not possible for these to be shot down w aircraft? The drones are slow and don't maneuver. Helicopters and fighter aircraft could shoot them down I would've thoght. I am guessing there's something that makes this infeasible but I don't know what it is. Anyone know why this doesn't work?

Something else we agree on -- playing the Brits and Canadians is great fun. Brens are better than many think. And those little mortars are great for taking out MG42s. If I had 50 of those shells instead of 12 per tube I'd never lose an infantry battle as brits.

What battles are those PhantomCapt? And glad to see someone else appreciates the lovely and versatile stuart tanks!

Makes me wonder whether the whole seemingly pointless Bakhmut 'offensives' is Prigozhin just building up political street cred for later. If Putin goes down and there's a power vacuum Prigozhin can promote himself as the one who upheld RU honor by never retreating and continuing to fight while everyone else fell apart. Would play well in the RU nat community I bet. Everyone else will be part of the 'stab in the back' conspiracy but not this brave, unyielding warrior.

The "smart ones"? Putin doesn't pay his bills. There aren't any Ladas to give. And the money will never come. These women will get nothing except their ex-husbands debts.

Yeah, not a sponsor. They are a terrorist state. Like ISIS except is a real state.

what the heck was that crazy huge explosion??? IED? Was kinda enormous for a mine, wasn't it?

No, I meant they will be doing all those things inside Belarus. That's my point. Bringing in these folks and arming them given current RU logistic, training, and command issues is a recipe for having foreign armed gangs roaming Belarus countryside.