danfrodo

Really need RU lines to crack, somewhere. This is probably pretty costly for these heroic UKR soldiers. I couldn't care less about RU soldiers. They can flee, surrender or face the consequences since they are thieves caught in the neighbor's house. Anyone ever watch any videos by this Russian kid? He's been posting on YT for months, mostly from petersburg. Here's he's talking about RU folks fleeing and 36 hour lines at border checkpoints. I also notice he looks like he's posting this from a hotel -- is he hiding I wonder? He doesn't mention whether he's on the conscription list or not. He seems like a good kid, I hope he ends up OK. Actually I'm surprised he's not been shut down thus far.

little tip for the conscription center burners: KNOCK OUT THE CAMERAS FIRST. You can be shot for doing this. Take a little time to plan, geeeeez. If you want to video so you can inspire others, do it yourself so you can edit out clues. Hopefully there will be so many of these that security forces are overwhelmed. Given that most locals will be on your side, seems like a pretty clean crime if there's no video.

Thanks Vulture, today's discussion has devolved into wishful thinking about RU's political future. This picture reminds me of the importance of continuing degradation of RU forces relative to what the endgame looks like in UKR. And in Moscow. Meanwhile, BillBindC on previous page shared report that new RU mobiks being shoved into Kupyansk front. I was already surprised that RU can't seem to stop UKR on Oskil/Lyman fronts, given that they could've moved all the Kharkiv front troops there. Now they are so desperate they are trying to hold the line w cannon fodder????? This is getting curiouser and curiouser.....

I was sitting here in my comfy basement office, working from home like I do 90% of the time. Then I pictured being dragged out of this nice gig and thrown into a brutal, completely uncaring military. Then sent to some trench in a Ukrainian winter. I am miserable, cold, wet, scared, sometimes shelled. And I've also lost my paychecks from my job. How do I pay for my house, etc? I am thinking I am not a model patriotic soldier in that situation. And if that LT is telling me to attack or to hold at all costs else I'll be shot? I am going to shoot him first chance I get.

Good look at level of training of US infantry vs the fodder-mob RU mobilization infantry. Compare half a year of training to as little as zero. Some portion of the UKR army was well behind the lines for ~3+ months getting trained and was unleashed on thinly held RU front. No wonder RU folded then and seems to still not be able to stop these relatively well trained troops. LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/26/2125288/-Ukraine-update-As-Russia-mobilizes-here-s-what-a-well-trained-army-looks-like

GrigB once again bringing the good stuff. What's fascinating to me is that this pace, though much slower than the drive to Kupyansk, is still faster by an order of magnitude or more than anything we saw all summer. So RU knows exactly where the attack is and still can't stop it? That says a lot about these two armies right now. Pray for sunshine to whatever god or gods you think might help. Looks like rain every day for the next week, though most days look to be light rain or just showers.

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As author of The Things They Carried said (very short paraphrase version here) "fiction tells the bigger truth". Nonfiction often lies using the truth. Meanwhile, seems like no movement in Kherson area. And RU seems to be getting at least some supplies over the river. In Oskil/Lyman sectors, looks like maybe an important breakthrough possible for UKR. Yet another cutting of critical RU supply lines will hopefully occur. As far as psyops, I will return to my idea from hundreds of pages ago. At night, SOF inserts multiple cases of vodka near positions to later be attacked. Tie brightly colored ballons so RU will see them in the morning. There's zero chance RU will not drink the stuff all at once. Won't have to use any artillery at all and will be easy to overrun. This will be even more effective for the new conscripts. And can you imagine trying to train these clowns while they are having severe alcohol withdrawals? Or maybe they'll just be sent straight to the front, shaking and delirious.

best news ever! Dictator gonna use his magic will power to un-F something that is totally F-ed. If anyone can do this, he can. This will certainly help when the history books are written about "most obvious, avoidable fiasco in military history"

Some thoughts for y'all to pick apart: Item 1: Nukes + US holding back on several issues. Allegedly US has warned Putin about nukes or other WMD. Then I think about where the US has held back. 1. Not declaring Putin a war criminal to international court, which would have very long reaching implications if he stays in power and wants negotiated settlement to get sanctions lifted 2. Russia declared terrorist state -- it certainly is, and this would also cause long term trouble as per #1 3. US refusing to provide long range missiles and possibly some other game-changing weapons. US currently, with intent, is not providing missiles that could easily obliterate Kerch bridge, which we most certainly have. 4. US not pushing to have RU removed from UN security council So maybe a big part of US holding back these cards would is because there'd be nothing left to use to escalate with. Item #2: Iran actively supplying RU w weapons. Previous US pres administration unilaterally abrogated the nuclear treaty b/w Iran, EU, and US. If this had not been done, would Iran be more neutral right now? They were super peeved when the treaty was destroyed and it was a boon to Iranian hardliners.

Hang on, I'm the only one you reported to the police? I was part of a criminal gang of off topic scoundrels. Back on topic starting...... now

I think we can safely assume that on the attractiveness scale your wife is a 10 and you are a 3, more or less. So you have to make up the difference through good behavior, or else one day she'll wise up and leave you for the first 5 or 6 that comes along. I make up the difference via doing dishes, getting her latte on weekend morning, etc. Must keep them distracted like this or they will catch on that we are not worthy. If she sees a pile of dirty dishes in the kitchen she might start to notice other things that are not in your favor.

I think you are missing the main point: Ukraine/Poland receiving Leo2's would force Battlefront to put that in upcoming CMBS module. That's the biggest and most important reason why germany needs to get on the ball.

Yes, good point. It's tough to balance the longer term needs & possibilities (F16, M1 abrams, etc) that would take huge logisitical & training efforts vs fact that every gun, shell & IFV rec'd is needed pretty quickly at the front. But if you never start building the basis for the NATO weapons you'll never get there. And the technical, logistical, and command people needed to build that basis are kinda busy right now.

I am coming around to your way of thinking on Kherson. There's a lot of RU packed in there and they've had time to set up defenses. This could take a while, unfortunately. This kessel is such a wildcard in what happens for Putin. If it did collapse w huge RU prisoner loss, could Putin survive that?

Good short summary of situation east/SE of Oskil river, plus a bit on T72 vs M1 Abrams. Actually had a couple bits about the T72 I didn't know. I really know WW2 tanks well, but still am learning on modern -- if a tank design from 1972 is modern. LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/22/2124598/-Ukraine-update-Ukraine-reportedly-breaks-Russian-lines-east-of-Oskil-River

The above kinda says it all. Crimea and even DNR/LPR probably only get taken back if there's RU political collapse/regime change. Crimea would be very hard to take if even marginally defended. Ask Manstein. Geeez, I have a travel day and all hell breaks loose. Someone goes after TheCapt? That's like heckling Santa Claus! I am honored if he even deigns my words to be worthy of his derision. Mobilization: I think it's important to remember that this is a mix of reality and theater/reality show. And it's being done w the level of competence we would expect from Putin's Russia. It'll be interesting to see how these troops are used. They will be ridiculously brittle. If used to fill up existing units, they could actually make those units more brittle. And what does this totally disorganized mess look like going forward? Will there be food when they arrive at their initial barracks, let alone uniforms, boots, weapons? This is a whole bunch of very mutinous looking mobs. I wouldn't want to be the gung-ho NCO in charge of one of these once they are armed. LLF: He's fun and whether one agrees or disagrees w him he makes the forum richer. I just spent way too much work time getting caught up w hundreds of posts, mostly very good, now I'll have to work straight through lunch to end of day to get caught up. Thanks for that, y'all.

TheCapt, did you really type this? Are you trying for vacation? Next thing I know you'll disparage Bowie, Elvis C, or the eagles. Then you definitely have a death wish. But you made point about US-Iraq war on which I want to expand. The damage that is done by stepping over 'norms' is something folks overlook. They say "hey I can get away w this because while no one else does this there's no law against it". Mike Duncan's book on the last decades of Roman Republic (the Storm Before the Storm) shows this very well. Taboo actions are employed to gain political advantage, then everyone could do that going forward. So when (for example) US believes itself exceptional relative to norms and does something just because it can get away w it, it's also creating precedents for others w possibly darker motives. This is true in politics of any country and in international relations. US interventions are an excuse for Putin to do his intervention, though as TheCapt pointed out, our intentions might not have always been the best we were an order(s) of magnitude more reasonable than Putin.

Not an Eagles fan per se, but I am rooting the eagles QB who's about as big an underdog as Ukraine. On-subject note: It's good to speculate about RU in case of political/national collapse, worst & best cases & such. but golly the future is really really dark. We are dark on who long it could take to collapse Kherson, if at all. We are dark on the nukes. We are dark on whether anyone actually can remove Putin. THings are very, very wide open. If things stay linear then Ukraine will almost surely get back most or all of 2022 territory. If things go sideways, it could go way good or way bad. Heck, we don't even know when or how much mud is coming over the next few weeks, if any.

Talk about kicking the Cowboys when they are down. Not only will the Eagles probably whup them this year, you want them nuked also? Geeeeez. Philly fans are just like the legends say. For those of you not from the US, Philadelphia eagles fans are infamous for once booing Santa Claus (not the real santa, mind you). They are not nice to opposing teams and even less nice to their own team if it's not winning.

Hoo boy, what a wild ride little Vladdy Putin is taking us on. And what a busy forum, hard to keep up since I am traveling (I am in very westernmost Poland, meaning Winona, MN. Went to funeral yesterday where everyone attending was req'd to wear polish flag lapel pin ). Very very interesting insights on Putler's 'mobilize & terrorize' speech, promising big army buildup and to nuke everyone, yet again. Some consensus opinion forming around the 300lk not really changing things on the ground, for multitude of reasons (won't really be 300k, no training, no equipment, etc). Plus seems to be causing some flight as moms are driving their sons to the border or shoving them onto airplanes. One thing I hadn't thought of until Zeleban mentioned it above is how much of this is just a propaganda ploy. It's meant to frighten the west, along w earlier mentioned objective of providing shout out to the RU nats who only want more/bigger war. And now we see what can happen before the mud season. Of course, given right circumstances there could still be plenty of opportunities even w the mud. Kherson pressure won't magically end due to mud, I think. Another thing this speech provided was a way to shift the narrative. Right now everyone is seeing massive RU defeats and this speech is a nice distraction from that.

This remind anyone of anything from WW2? Germans think they can hold Dnieper line but simply don't have enough men. Soviets get a couple bridgeheads which hold out and then expand. yep, if RU thought the river would save them they seem to be greatly mistaken. And there's that lovely rail line not too far away. If RU loses that then they are well and truly messed up. "non-linear" was mentioned in posts above. When I use that, I mean anything that re-directs current trajectories. We tend to look at current trends and extrapolate on those vectors. So if on the losing side of those vectors one needs to move off where those lines go. Right now everything is trending down for RU. So will need events to change that, like big radiation spill or something? AKA flipping the chessboard.

So you're saying I could get great bargains flying Russia Air?

I think Vietnam very much wants to start getting manufacturing that foreign companies can move out of china since china making itself look less and less reliable. Stupidest dang thing ever, china scaring the goose that lays the golden eggs. Stessed geese lay less eggs.

The question I have is what does "finish the job" mean? All of Feb24 land + Donbas + Crimea? I think finish the job is "get as much as possible before exhaustion forces you to the table". But "as much as possible" starts w asking where is opportunity. I'd say the Kharkiv front success was based as much on RU local weakness as it was to UKR strength. But that's what being smart militarily often means -- exploiting enemy weakness and stupidity. So where is the next target of opportunity outside of Kherson? And how can UKR exploit Putin's stupidity to get RU troops moved around in an advantageous manner?