danfrodo

I suspect he can have that cease fire as soon as he goes back to feb 22 borders. Like WW1 & WW2, it's up to the occupier to leave if it wants to end the war.

Putin needs to salvage something from this disaster, namely enough territory to spin it as victory. To do this he needs UKR to stop winning on the ground. This can only happen by Ukraine's allies stopping aid and pressuring Ukraine. The exact opposite of that is happening w Putin's escalations. Putin needs to freeze this conflict and get to the negotiating table w an abandoned Ukraine that is out of options -- but instead every time Putin escalates EU & US do more, not less, for Ukraine.

Interesting idea. Putin using NATO escalation as excuse to withdraw. Out of the box thinking, for sure, but Putin is in a complete bind, and desperate times generate desperate plans. This has me realizing I need to stop thinking about what I would do in Putin's shoes and be open to what that 'genius' might come up with that no one expects.

I hope we shut down everything. Banks, electricity, internet, cell phone systems. If everything else in RU is totally corrupt I would be surprised if their businesses have proper security, backup, & recovery systems. Not to mention dozens of thousands of their best and brightest have fled over last 6 months. The only guys left are probably like that knucklehead from the 1st Jurassic Park movie, except w much less talent.

Cyber attacks at Chicago's Midway and OHare airports today, temporary shutdown. I have a feeling and a hope that's there's an army of US govt hackers just waiting to jump into action. Good luck w this Putler. All the best RU programmers work for silicon valley and CIA, having left your decrepit corrupt rathole country.

So maybe China thinking a peaceful, stable world is good for China? Seems so.

Yeah, I was thinking same thing. US/NATO will respond in public w sanctions, increased support. But behind the scenes will be cyberattacking electric grid, internet, etc. When the cell phones don't work all day in Moscow folks might start to reconsider their choices.

I'd say that (maybe) the biggest news right now is not Kerch or the Kyiv attacks. It's the attacks on infrastructure in NATO countries. What will these countries do? What will NATO do? What will the majority of the public want in these countries? Clearly Putin is betting that his nuclear threat will allow him to make these attacks on NATO countries w/o any response, in the hopes that there will then be pressure put on UKR to make a bad deal, soon. This could have profound affects going forward. Hopefully people in EU will just get really angry and we'll see more pressure on RU and more support for UKR. And the first thing to do is to kick RU off security council and call it a terrorist state, with all the implications of that. I think leaders have resisted officially labeling Putin a terrorist because that's impossible to walk back later, but we past that now.

I'm open to whatever truth comes out, if any, about the Kerch bomb. RIght now mostly looks like truck bomb. but that's not conclusive, so internet is going nuts. What Steve said does carry some weight -- if RU says it's truck bomb, there's good chance it's not truck bomb.

For sure, AKD. And very few people saying anything useful about what this means for RU supply. Stupid internets. It was a boat, a plane, a missile, 2 missiles, a dingy, bomb on train, bomb on bridge, RU false flag (totally makes sense!),EMP attack gone wrong, Hilary Clinton, superhero, aliens -- did I miss anything?

Just saw that BBC will be releasing a new 6-part miniseries based on Ben MacIntyre's excellent SAS Rogue Heroes history. All I see for release date is '2022'. Has the excellent Jack O'Donnell.

I guess we'll see a lot of UKR probing to find out where incompetent/inexperienced RU officers messed up the defense. Or where there's a bunch of mobiks that are just waiting for their chance to give up. Thanks for the maps, LLF, very enlightening

piling on here w the tankies and their ridiculous views on Kerch bridge attack.... I would have a hard time not punching this one guy if he said this to me in public. Actually, I don't think there's anyway I could not punch him. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/9/2127903/-Ukraine-Update-Tankies-hyperventilate-over-Kerch-bridge-strike

So could be propaganda faked to reassure scared RU folks? I would love to see stampede of folks out of Crimea back to RU. Will make the demographic issue less difficult if UKR retakes that area. Let's say it's truck bomb. And let's assume the perpetrators are still in the area, just waiting for another chance to put a bomb on another vehicle or train, and they pull off another one of these. This could get to be really fun as every single shipment has to be checked top to bottom. Heck, that's nearly as good as knocking out the bridge.

wow, this is a happy morning! Another super embarrassing disaster for His Geniusness. For me, the 'how' of the event is much less important than how this changes the war. It causes massive political upheaval for RU, as blame gets thrown around. It severely cuts supply via Crimea, and thus supply overall. Ferries can't make up the difference and one road lane can't either. Plus every single truck & car on that road lane would require inspection. but if it's an ammo or fuel truck it's already a rolling bomb, just needs a little bomb to set it off. So even more supply constriction for inspections. Meanwhile, the only other major line to the west, via Melitopol, is in Himars range and was also hit last night. This is lovely. And it's getting cold and RU is needed lots of artillery shells at the front and those are no longer coming. Dang, happy day.

xxxx

I actually would like to find out that we've been deceived and that RU propaganda is correct for once. Meaning I WISH there were 2 Polish brigades fighting there! W NATO air cover. yeah yeah yeah I know that's crazy & an escalation but jeebus that would be one fun CMBS module. Poles finally get to punch back at Russian oppressors.

Just when ya think the world is filled w idiots, someone puts together something of utter brilliance, like this. Thanks for sharing, you restored my faith in humanity.

YAY for France for sending more aid. On subject of ceasars -- what does he mean by this quote above? Does he mean the gun systems require more training than the UKR soldiers currently have?

very interesting indeed! Probably not too hard for UKR SOF to drive around in RU posing as some RU personnel given the lack of security we see everywhere else.

Is it just the info I am seeing or have things gone kinda dark from the front? Seems multiple sources are saying there's huge 'contested' zones on both Kherson & Svatove fronts.

In spirit of transparency please let us know whether you or any of your elderly family members are on medicare & social security and whether you'd be cool w us turning off that gigantic pile of evil government-run socialist tyranny.

Thanks for sharing these guys, Beleg, they are hilarious. Some very smart humor. And I am glad to see my 2nd favorite ancient history expert is well and back on the forum again. (sorry, my #1 ancient historian is neighbor here, town full of professors. He keeps scolding me for reading greek/roman historical fiction when I haven't finished Herodotus or Plutarch) But the comedy bit above does really hit a lot of very accurate points. The maps are a good analogy to how Putin is changing the story of this war continuously, trying to find new justifications & moving the goalposts. And the last bit is a good analogy about how this war is going to cost everyone in russia, whether it's through soldiers at the front or living in an economy well on its way back to 1970.

oh, thanks. Excellent point. If Belarus invades the army itself might decide to turn on Mr Moustache. That would be funny.

I wish Poland would announce that any military units attacking from Belarus into Ukraine will be attacked by Polish air forces. Don't need NATO permission for that, do they? That would put an end to any Belarus-based attack.