danfrodo

So what does this person think is the purpose of UKR taking this peninsula??

What on earth are these devious satan-worshipping ukrainians up to??? They don't do things w/o good reason, I just really wonder what it might be? If it's a bridgehead it has the advantage of being defensible and not surrounded by RU. And the disadvantage of being in middle of nowhere.

So UKR BMP charges trench defense network w one squad. RU has excellent positions + outnumbers UKR team. And the RU forces ran away? This should have been a suicide charge for the UKR team? Unbelievable reckless courage that succeeded due to utter RU incompetence/lack of morale as far as I can tell. None of us would ever do this in CMBS or CMCW. Not this close.

Totally agree this is soviet tactic from WW2 and was very successful, though often at high cost. But would that work here? It seems very high risk. UKR might be able to put powerful artillery shield over the bridgehead, that might make it feasible. But still there's a LOT of RU men, armor, & artillery on interior lines that could come to bear. If I ordered this I'd probably have to start smoking just so I could chain smoke the stress away like in the WW2 days. I suppose coupled with an attack down the left bank it could be really good. But also might be Arnhem. that's my guess also. It'll be interesting to see if Kinophile is right and UKR smells blood in the water and does something bold.

Today's summary. Some good videos I hadn't yet seen w captured vehicles & supplies. Bakhmut still hot. Hopefully some of the Kherson-sector artillery can shift over here to start blasting the wagnerites. Svatove front there's some indications UKR getting closer & closer to to the town. Some dry weather & hard ground might be all that's needed here, I hope. Anywhere UKR can make a breakthrough will cause RU to shift forces so here's to hoping something happens on this front that opens up things on other fronts. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/12/2135559/-Ukraine-update-Celebrations-continue-in-Kherson-as-elsewhere-the-war-goes-on

UKR tends to look for opportunities to 'unhinge' RU and the western theater offers excellent possibilties for this. As I've mentioned before, there a only two rail routes overall. One via kerch, which splits to two lines at Perekop & to the west of Perekop. The other is from the east via Tokmak. So if UKR wants to get the territory south of kherson/north of crimea it will look to cut those rail lines. That's what I am watching for. Restrict supply and then strike. Hopefully get some longer range rockets to hit those two Perekop-area rail lines. Going straight for Melitopol w Dnieper on the right is obvious best strategy, but it's probably best defended. I think UKR will strike further east of there, initially, wherever they see weakness and opportunity. Goal will be to cut supply lines to the west. This will cause panic w RU forced to pull forces out of fixed defenses to push back the salient, where RU units can be more easily defeated. And there's a cold front coming...... Kinburn Peninsula: we don't know what this is. Maybe just a feint to force RU into disproportionately waste forces. RU troops hearing via rumint that UKR forces are on the left bank should be nice for lowering RU morale.

WTF -- someone actually said something this stupid? LLF, you must've 'bout spit out your beer when you saw this. RU is gonna come screaming down from Belarus? In what? Old Ladas??? Riding horses and cows??? Americans aren't desperate for a deal. But having negotiations just shows that you're at least trying to end this w/o more bloodshed, even if the UKR demands are something Putin won't accept (as they damn well should be!!)

I think UKR will, as Steve mentioned, regroup for a short bit, but it will also be busy. I think UKR will begin 'shaping the war'. They'll work to threaten things Putin values the most, getting Putin to reinforce there. Then while he's protecting his face they'll kick him in the nuts or knees. Like w the Kharkiv operation. But they'll keep at least some pressure in multiple places. About Biden, as per above: Let's credit all the leaders who had the courage and vision to do the right thing and convinced the wavering ones to join in. Biden, B Johnson UK, Poland, and others -- the ones who worked diligently and relentlessly, mostly behind the scenes, to build the huge coalition of support for UKR. The sanctions that no one thought possible. The huge amounts of arms and aid. We were all later and less than needed in material support early in this war, but credit and honor to those that led the way.

I think the good news is that RU units leaving Kherson are incapable of effective offensive action. They are beat up and lost much of their gear. Maybe some more 'elite' units got out in good shape, but I doubt most units did. They've been there a long time under pressure. I think RU will use these troops to hold the front so that more capable units can be pulled out to send wherever -- like Bakhmut, as you suggest. Hopefully they will send lots of troops to Bahkmut. UKR has lots of artillery it can now put in that sector. I want to see UKR offensive toward Melitopol so just don't want the better RU troops in that area.

wow, rats deciding Putin's sewer smells to bad even for their rather jaded olfactory senses.

Jeebus, and this guy is considered some kind of intellectual???? It's just jingoistic nonsense. An intellectual would say something like "This war does not serve the needs of the Russian people or our descendents. In fact it poisons and impoverishes us & our children. We must leave Ukraine and overthrow the dictator that forced this disaster upon us and rebuild our status in the world. Specifically, our cultural, diplomatic, and economic status in the world. Russia is a great nation because of its intelligent, creative and tough people, not because of its ability to make war." Because that's the only thing that actually can be said that won't lead to more poison and poverty for Russia.

I guess what matters is having RU waste time & resources on such foolishness. UKR should be sending lots of signals that they are going to cross the river somewhere.

Uh, that would rape, plunder and loot you dimwitted, brainwashed buffoon

Great point I hadn't thought of. UKR letting world know this. But also letting RU soldiers know that leaving means living.

I don't know art, but I know what I like

But there's some things I do know. I am smiling so much my mouth hurts. And I teared up at the video of the civilians in Kherson center greeting their liberators. And Putin has a lot of damage control PR to do. The soon to be dead Dugin just called for Putin's head, oh my. Watching how Putin et al spin this is gonna be fun. Finding out the level of atrocities perpetrated by RU in Kherson region is not going to be fun.

well, hopefully RU folks believe. Hopefully they are seeing UKR ghosts everywhere and this will cause rear echelon panic, at least for a few days.

Let the good times roll. Map looks amazing relative to where we've been for months. Good summary stuff again from this site. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/10/2135106/-Ukraine-update-Fighting-underway-as-Ukrainian-troops-enter-Kherson-Russia-loses-its-biggest-prize

You are correct, of course, that we don't have enough info to be sure what's up. I do feel confident that panic is occurring and many troops will simply flee. Everything we've seen leading up to this point makes panic/collapse the most likely outcome. As mentioned in the posts just above, RU commanders are known to abandon troops all over the front and that has to be more likely here. Now troops that did not receive orders to retreat are learning that Kherson is being abandoned, officially. And we know that mobiks have been shoved into the kessel. I will be shocked if this withdrawal does not lead to some significant disaster for RU. Hundreds dead and several thousand captured would be horrific PR for Putin, not to mention a morale killer for other troops.

And who says dreams don't come true? This was my fervent wish in my posts last few days and here it is getting fulfilled. Once again we have to ask whether will Putin survive this unbelievably incompetent disaster?? Putin was the one ordering more & more troops into the pocket for months until suddenly deciding to pull them out in what seems to have been an impulse decision. Now all I want is for no more Ukrainians to get caught by mines & booby traps as they destroy/capture the mob left in the kessel.

Maybe this whole "russia showing operational competence" thing can be dropped now? They are doing some of the things one should see in a proper withdrawal, like men actually withdrawing; and they spread some mines. But they announce it on TV. They leave lots of what appears to be working gear laying around. And are they all just fleeing? UKR moving so fast it kinda looks like the delaying units aren't delaying anyone.

Any idea where this is? Great to hear the crews laughing. High morale and high hopes. I actually hope RU bunched a lot of artillery assets on the left bank to cover the withdrawal and this is all that arty getting smashed. Could be ferry strike? Staging area strike? 'course, could be some other front.

My money well spent. F YES. Thanks for sharing this. Cold weather gear incl, that's great to know. 500 precision rounds, heh heh, we'll be seeing those hitting RU armor in videos sometime this winter I am sure.

~30km from both nova kahovke & Kherson. Closing in on artillery range to the crossing points. When we talk about whether RU conducted a competent withdrawal we also have to look at the other details besides just extracting men. Did they ruin all their abandoned vehicles, mortars, etc? Did they destroy all their weapons caches? Did they burn up all their fuel storage? We will probably only get info on this via anecdotes from soldier go-pros for a while. But hopefully UKR will publish a nice accounting publicly to humiliate Putin even further.

I am looking at that position from a CM perspective. Reverse slope defensive position from crest ~300m away. Good lines of sight for a long ways left & right. Trenches, boxes probably filled w dirt to make walls, keyholed cast concrete bunker. As much as I wanted those RU soldiers captured, this could be a tough nut to crack if the defenders have ATGMs and other similar supporting locations nearby.