danfrodo

Wow, things are moving fast in Kherson. And now we all wait to see if the alleged orderly withdrawal turns to panic. Once the cannons are in range of the ferry crossings I am betting a lot of panic.

Hopefully we'll be seeing lots of this. RU is losing vehicles at an astonishing rate.

Let us not forget that there are many thousands of civilians in Kherson that will be starving w/o electricity or clean water. This could change UKR choices on how hard to push if RU does leave units in the city. And RU is going to do scorched earth for sure either way. Edit: apologies to Beleg, I didn't notice he already made this point above.

I am guessing they don't need to drop it all the way. It's not being used and they would want it standing when they recover the left bank. But why would they cross a giant river when they have ~200km or more of frontage on the Melitopol-mariupol front? Maybe they will send SOF across river to disrupt behind RU lines on occasion but that river is a crazy huge logistical obstacle. Any force put across that is asking to be cut off.

Deserves a 'like'. Just because Steve is agreeing w me

Assuming some RU units stay in the city they will be completely cut off. As has been mentioned here many times, once RU crossing are in arty-tube range, nothing will cross. Are RU units really gonna do suicide defense of nothing?? And left bank RU artillery will be in range of UKR artillery, so that support won't last long if UKR brings counter battery resources to bear.

yeah, if they actually get everyone & everything out it would show some tactical/operational competence in this one instance. but trying to hold kherson for so long shows incredible strategic incompetence. They collapsed at Kharkiv front because they sent everything west to support Kherson. They made no impactful gains in Bahkmut front, once again they lacked strength, which was all in the west. I'll be surprised if this pullout goes smoothly for the mobiks, I think they'll get slaughtered as they bunch up at the beach.

I see what you're saying but looking at the big picture it's still a masterpiece. A huge portion of UKR territory liberated without high cost to UKR. A lot of RU losses along the way in men and especially material. A lot of RU resources spent on a lost cause for many months. A political humiliation for Putin. UKR will be able to redeploy its fully equipped units elsewhere. RU will have an unarmed, demoralized rabble to redeploy. A huge victory via an opportunity created by interdiction of supply. Catching all those men in kessel would be extra icing on the cake. But it's still a huge and delicious cake.

Yeah, definitely don't tell BFC we'd pay more for this. They can't see this, can they? uh oh I can't wait to fight George MCs mech kampfgruppe fights. Can't wait. Did a lot of fighting as russians w CMRT Berlin. Now ready for the other side. And no mud! Nice summer fields.

Could be some kind of RU lie, but doesn't seem to make much sense to lie about this. The political humiliation is already there. I'd think they would lie they other way, saying they were not withdrawing. Maybe they will keep some units in Kherson city? But the blowing of the bridges seems to indicate this is real. Hopefully lots of soldiers caught on wrong side of those bridges. The river crossing stations could be an absolute disaster as panicked troops crowd the shore. Mobs & artillery are a deadly mix.

I had Tuesday night free of religious obligations (NFL football watching) so took the time to watch this whole video. It's quite good. One thing I noticed is how many of the soldiers had US supplied rifles, which I had not noticed in most other videos, though may have just missed that. These guys mostly had very nice, new looking gear.

I wonder how many RU men and how much RU material is on the wrong side of those blown bridges? I am skeptical that RU can pull off a proper withdrawal. Plus, do they have the freight capability to remove a huge number of troops quickly across that big river? And if they do have an actual professional withdrawal plan, what are the chances that the poor, untrained mobiks left as rearguards won't just panic & run or simply surrender? Kherson will probably be filled w destroyed infrastructure and booby traps but hopefully UKR won't suffer any casualties clearing it.

"I have returned one of your 6 children I kidnapped, so now let's have peace" UKR: you did return the child, we took it back from you by force. Return the rest "Warmonger! We'll nuke you and all your friends!" But this is great news about Kherson. I am wondering how much actual planning has occurred, obviously some w the bridges being blown. But I also wonder if RU saw the front collapsing, not by choice, and this was a contingency plan for that.

Do you mean like attacking all along Kherson front, for example? Or attacking on multiple fronts, like Kherson + Melitopol + Svatove all at once?

Kherson weather looks dry for the next week except for showers one day. Maybe UKR was just waiting for things to dry up a bit

This is my dream! Attack toward Melitopol maybe starting???? I wonder if UKR has some teams behind RU lines in this area? It's an enormous area so it's not unrealistic. The teams could watch roads waiting for sufficiently valuable targets to arrive. This is very far behind the lines.

Kherson falling is important for a lot of reasons. A huge one is that while UKR forces are tied up there we will see no push toward Tokmak/Melitopol, which is my most fervent fantasy. And we can't get to the Feb22 borders, let alone Crimea, w/o getting moving on this front. I saw above knucklehead wrote that Kherson is gateway to Crimea. This person has never seen a map of Ukraine? Or did they mean that taking Kherson frees up UKR forces?

Adding on to Zeleban's posts above: RU is very railroad dependent. As far as I can tell there's currently only two lines serving the western theater. 1. rail line running near the fighting at Pavlivka 2. Kerch bridge. This line still has to get from Crimea to the area north of perekop, which looks to have only two lines. So UKR can significantly interdict RU western theater supplies by hitting only 2 rail lines. And if they can't hit Kerch, they can hit the two lines coming north out of Crimea. Russia is very vulnerable and hopefully the huge amount of forces in the western theater will start having serious shortages soon.

This is a very very good thing if true. It bodes well for collapse on the Svatove front. I've been wondering whether untrained, unwilling conscripts would hold up given lack of supplies, command, etc, and heavy UKR pressure. RU groups shelling each other? -- I have such a big smile right now.

Those fellers are talking foreign, dang it. It'd be interesting to know what they have to say. They look like .... rabble? ~40 yr olds or so.

On the ongoing RU-sucks at war theme, let us remember that this was supposed to be a coup, not a war. Especially not a long war and especially not a long war with sanctions and especially not a long war with sanctions where UKR has kickbutt western artillery. Putin chose a coup, not a war. Continuing the war and constantly doubling down and losing those bets is his choice, however.

Exactly. The bad tactics are one thing, but the whole operation is just nonsense. What prize does RU get with a victory? Not much. And even if they broke through they have nothing with which to exploit, as per above. So why do this at all? I doubt it's just dumb generals making dumb high level choices of where to fight. It's got to come from higher up, from some Putin obsession with either this territory or he thinks he's degrading or tying up UKR forces here. It just makes no sense to lose so much men & material that will be much missed when UKR breaks through somewhere in the near future.

Turns out his bleeding schedule was more open than he had believed

Summary from Markos at DailyKos. Most of this already seen on the forum. I am sharing because of the interesting part near the top, about the Pavlivka sector. I didn't realize the only rail line to Mariupol and westward to Melitopol is in UKR tube artillery range in that sector! So maybe that's why RU is fighting so hard to push UKR back in that area. Very interesting. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/6/2134063/-Ukraine-Update-Russian-naval-infantry-decimated-at-Pavlivka-in-stunning-defeat

As I recall, the fire team above sufffered 67% KIA in subsequent engagements. And if you haven't seen the new predator movie (Prey) you should. Epic.