danfrodo

Looks like a good sized unit, lots of vehicles. Company at least, hopefully a full battalion. Can't wait for these to be chewing up RU defenses. RU needs to pay and pay hard for what they've done. With all the talk of shortages around Bakhmut it's good to see this and remind us that Bakmut shortages might not be indicative of overall shortages.

Interesting thought. But I wonder how likely this is given that RU is burning up every other kind of resource in the current attacks -- men, armor, shells, barrels; so why would ATGMs be spared? A critical tool for defense of a very long line would be mobile reserve units and RU is burning up lots of the vehicles needed for that.

This bodes well for UKR offensive over dry ground, where RU has to cover huge stretches of trench lines. As has been noted, mostly by TheCapt, corrosion will be first and then weak areas identified and infiltrated and attacked. But if the defenders are short on ATGM/RPGs then the armor support can just waltz in and blast away. This is my great hope.

Oh my, that was harsh! The kinda thing ya can't un-see. I start to feel sorry for him then I remember what he was trying to do, whether compelled or not.

Wow, y'all have been busy! Thanks for sharing, I do loooooove the screenshots!

Which gets into how utter incompetent RU propaganda is. They actually should be putting blue tape on their own dead in those muddy fields and saying 'look at all the dead ukrainians"

It definitely might be true that this commander has bad troops & shortage of ammo. And it definitely might be intentional. Economy of force, which gets broadcast to the world as UKR military is on the brink. This could, of course, be true, but the more likely reason is that UKR is trying to not let RU distract from the coming offensive. What does make my blood boil is how the allies dragged their feet for month after month and so these troops under pressure have less than otherwise would have.

Now that is some blockbuster news! Normally Putin would just send in the troops, except they are previously engaged. Wikipedia says Kazak military is ~100k total, w ~20k in the army. Not much but hopefully enough to ward off whatever Putin tries. That would be hilarious -- RU beaten by Kazakstan. The other 'stans might be emboldened by this.

I played all three of these and definitely learned or was reminded of things I need to know, most of which are discussed in the posts above. There's a good video on youtube showing the first scenario, would be good to take a look at it. I played the same battle w/o having watched that and got a win but at higher cost, having used different attack method. I had three pronged attack that went pretty well, then got to the bushes and there were a couple of survivors w PPSH in sturdy building that hit my guys up close. And my MGs had a hard time because the building was stone. In the video he sends everyone in right hook and has great success. The 3rd scenario is another good lesson in just how vulnerable the infantry is until the enemy is suppressed. But you've got panthers & stummels and mortars and arty & pre-sited artillery spots plus a nice hill on the right. But don't sit infantry in one place too long, russians have artillery also though they long delay times usually have them falling where you were a couple minutes ago -- if you keep moving.

Outstanding post, thanks much GrigB

Interesting day. LLFlank shows RU moving up highway towards Slovyansk, slowly.... So before the ground dries one would expect RU to have moved forces currently in Donbas sector out to the northern and western fronts to cover assumed UKR offensive. But that's interesting in that it could also leave the newly conquered territory, Krasna Hora etc, very very vulnerable. It also means this 'big RU offensive' would be over. iF they don't shift those forces, it's all that much better for UKR. When I posted earlier that RU was behaving like a zombie, just biting what's in front of it, I think that may be more accurate than I thought. RU is burning up resources that probably will be sorely missed in a month or two.

Indeed, if the 'cream' is not here, where is it, indeed? I suspect we can sum up UKR Bakhmut strategy w "don't interrupt your opponent when he's making a mistake". RU is losing huge to gain nothing. IMO this is because they have quite lost any sort of intelligent strategic/operational thinking. Putin needs some success, Prig promises it, they fight for it and now everyone is watching, now Putin really really wants it, generals claim they are pre-empting UKR spring offensive, Putin doubles down again, etc. I don't know this, of course, but so much of what we see looks like some zombie that just knows to bite what's in front of it, no real brain behind it. Like Stalin in 1941 "attack here! now attack here! no wait, attack here!!", grinding up forces that, if consolidated and used properly, could've really hampered the germans.

Summary from this guy again today, has a couple videos I hadn't seen before. At the bottom is a nice LOTR reference. Some talk of Leo1, bradley delivery dates. Supposedly AMX10s are already there, be interesting to see how they get used. They are supposed to be infantry support, which could be quite handy in taking defensive positions -- I assume AMX10 type vehicles require significantly less training & maintenence than tanks -- y'all think that's correct? https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/7/2156736/-Ukraine-update-Russia-s-big-winter-offensive-has-managed-zilch-gains

I think a lot of these folks are on the payroll, though probably through multiple cut out lobbying firms & agencies. The reason this is plausible to me is because of all the folks that actually were on Putin's payroll that we know about -- Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, etc. When I hear the words of Rand Paul, Tucker C, MacGregor, Greenwald, I have to believe that no one can be that stupid & evil w/o some incentive. Putin is a straight up mass murdering, child stealing terrorist and they think he's the good guy in this????

Yeah, what the heck is he talking about?? UKR is not facing a great RU army every mile of the HUGE front line. And if they can break through they can cause a lot of pain. UKR has better ability to move assets up & down the line. THey also have the freedom to decide where to strike. Sure, so does RU, except that RU is much less mobile so can't exploit anything. Plus, a 50km push by UKR, like to Starobilsk in the north or along the southern front would wreck RU defenses/logistics in ways that RU can only dream of doing to UKR. So what the heck is he talking about?? Does he think UKR needs 10million shells because it'll be months to crack the line, like WW1 style? Maybe, but the evidence seems to indicate RU will not be able to properly man/equip the 500km line properly and so will be very vulnerable.

So this idiot Prig thinks he has some power base of his own? He exists at the discretion of Putin. And the military has to supply him w everything and can, if not refuse, drag their feet & give the worst supplies. And who pays Prig & friends -- Putin does. So he thinks all he needs to do is recruit? -- only if someone else is paying can he do this. Fascinating political foolishness in middle of a war.

Summary for today, sharing because it reports a UKR advance to Mayorsk, south of Bakhmut. why do this I wonder? Were supplies coming up from the south thru here? But there's roads to the east already so doesn't look like it. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/10/2157289/-Ukraine-update-A-small-Ukrainian-advance-shows-that-there-are-more-important-positions-than-Bakhmut

I've been working mostly in 3D printing (aka additive manufacturing, aka AM) since 2015, though leaving this job in a couple weeks after 22 years (to make robots!). AM has great promise and also a lot of challenges. One challenge is about DFAM (design for additive manufacturing). People don't know how to take advantage of what AM can do and so just throw their injection molded or machined designs into AM, which is generally quite sub optimum. Other times, it's just people doing incredibly stupid things and then saying "look, AM doesn't work!". Last week contact from an app engineer for my company in east asia who said a potential customer was making jig for factory use & it broke -- he said he was done w AM, we are trying to educate the idiot. He took an aluminum part (E = stiffnesss modulus = 70,000MPa) and just switched to nylon PA12 (E=2000MPa) w same design. Of course it f-ing broke! They gave up 35X in stiffness! To switch they would need more section to overcome the loss of stiffness, which is what my little team is doing right now. In general, AM will have less robust material properties than traditional methods, mostly in build direction (strength b/w layers), but you can design while accounting for that. Added note: I've been to Oak Ridge Nat Labs AM lab twice, they were doing crazy stuff there, so impressive. Like making molds for wind turbine blades, all kinds of things VERY large and regular size

Speaking of getting back on track: 1. anyone have any updates about how much damage from last night's terror-missile attacks? 2. any updates on Bakhmut? Last I hard, like 12 hours ago, UKR was reinforcing the flanks and looking to push RU back from the supply lines and had fixed a bridge, improving supply line.

Didn't see that comin' from LLFlank. Thanks for the post, it definitely rings true w me overall. Stupid Mao tried to do idiot 5 year plans for industrializing & modernizing & becoming self sufficient. Later Chinese leaders just said "hey, capitalists only care about profits and we have cheap labor! And no pollution laws!". And the stampede began. Meanwhile, China got better & better & better and now can often say "yeah, we'll just make that ourselves, don't really need US overlords who now only have marketing & finance depts". edit: oh, yeah, sorry for continuing derailment of thread. I'm done, I promise. Unless someone brings up the NFL. Or guitars or amps. Or sausage.

I just started this campaign. I'm avoiding looking at the numbers on your screenshot but good to know it's winnable. I hope I have same level of success

Summary here for today. Says UKR only shot down about half the incoming missiles since many were hypersonic. Says that UKR electrical system has some outages but mostly up. More terrorism by Putin will hopefully be seen by folks in EU & US. We all need to be reminded what a monster he is lest we forget (I mean, the folks on the forum won't forget, but 'we' meaning UKR allied peoples in general) Civilians killed, infrastructure damaged. But again we have to ask "Putin, is this all you got? Terror & harassment strikes once a month?". https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/9/2157092/-Ukraine-update-Bakhmut-wasn-t-of-strategic-importance-but-it-is-now

My reason for faking toward Melitopol was because it's exactly what RU expects the most and fears the most. And it's probably a very hard nut to crack. But get breakthrough all the way to Starobilsk and then (as you say) the true prize of Melitopol gets weakened as panicky Putin shifts forces. I would actually keep the corrosion quiet in the north until I was somewhat close to jumping off. And like Haiduk, this is where I'd put whatever new forces were coming online, hopefully w NATO IFVs & some Leos. (and w the T62s showing up on RU side I suppose Leo1s are in fashion also) TheCapt did not destroy my conjectured plan.... yet. This is a big day for me Crossing Dnieper seems to me crazy. That's a very wide river, upriver. And downriver it's a mess of marsh & islands & channels.

What on earth did they eat in Ireland before potatoes came ~year 1500? If eating endless potatoes was a step up from previous cuisine, that musta been bad stuff (totally kidding). Speaking of that, what did russians do before they had potatoes to make vodka?

I'm gonna put my spring/summer offensive cards on the table. Here's what I think UKR will do. Assumptions: 1. most of RU excess combat power (armor & arty) is currently in Donbas front. By excess, I mean power beyond what's needed to hold that front if it's relatively quiet. 2. That excess combat power could be ~quickly moved toward either Svatove front or Melitopol front since centrally located. 3. UKR will want to get that excess combat power committed to either extreme of the front and attack at the other end So I think UKR will: 1. attack toward Melitopol, since that's what Putin will most fear. The attack must be powerful enough and look real enough for Putin to start freaking out -- always good to have the dictator deciding military movements. Putin would overcompensate his excess combat power to the far western extreme of the line. 2. Once Putin commits, UKR will attack at the other extreme of the line along Svatove-Starobilsk line. RU will have to move its excess combat power the maximum distance to reach the area for support. 3. If Starobilsk is taken, UKR goes on defensive here, since have cut major RU supply line. 4. UKR resumes attack on the western extreme toward Melitopol. The problem is that this requires splitting offensive force. But the key is that the split forces will not be facing RU reserves, which are at the other end of the line. When RU reserves show up & things get hard, the other end of the line attacks. Maybe UKR does not have enough combat power for this, but attack #1 might go one for a month starting in May before attack #2 starts in June or July, giving more time for the new units to become available. TheCapt et al should have a field day with this. I am actually interested in finding out just how bad an idea this is and why, but it's the best I have right now.