danfrodo

Girkin's a woman? Huh, I thought Putin didn't like trans folks. Though this does explain quite a bit, like the oddly fake looking mustache.

Legacy: every new person to my simulation group says "fortran sucks, we must convert everything to C++ or python!". Then we explain that we can spend the next year re-writing perfectly functioning code only to have the same thing we have now after a year of salary, just in a different language and running about the same speed (or worse). Or they can take a few weeks to become proficient enough at fortran to just add what we need when that comes up. It's a totally predictable cycle we've been through over & over & over. Meanwhile, I am just sitting here waiting for the ground to dry....... RU has 800 km front to cover when that happens. Gonna be interesting. Fortunately RU has wisely moved to combined arms by adding naval gun turrets to MTLBs -- this is really next level thinking, bringing the navy onto the land, brilliant. Because sanctions, corruption, and stupidity has totally not made a dent in RU armored vehicle production.

I think I'd rephrase this as "The possibility of functioning nukes..." Doesn't matter whether they work or are accurate in reality because the only way to really find out is the bad way. There's a strong chance they could be and so we all have to behave as if a significant percentage will work properly.

ah, I see your point. But are you saying UKR could go forward now, in the mud? I know infantry can infiltrate thru muddy fields but it seems like they could really be left hanging w/o hope without at least some HUMMVs they could get back to if wounded, and thru the mud? If they have to walk a km in and then a km behind the lines, that's a long way to to go w wounded. I was thinking they infiltrate and weaken defenses. Then the machines come forward and finish things off, while also bringing all the nice logistical stuff. Which is why I was thinking that RU still mainly only has to man the roads w fields only lightly covered. I am like a setup guy for you so that you can step in & knock down amateur-hour ideas.

Some thoughts: 1. we talk about 800km of front. But it's really not that right now for RU. They only have to cover the roads right now. When the ground dries, then all the factors that will (hopefully, probably) doom RU will come into play. Lack of ISR, arty, bad troops w bad gear in bad defenses. 2. As was mentioned above, China would probably not invade. It would try to get regions to declare independence and then help those regions via recognition, weapons, ISR, etc. ChrisL: While I do need to get out more, I was just struck by the communication and combined arms involved in this. Single soldier in what should be a death trap, talks to his friends who use drone. He wiggles gun and the friends shoot up the orcs. I was really impressed. I've seen tons of videos of drone-directed work, but this one was so very specific to just one surrounded guy.

That is the most amazing thing I have seen in ages, thx very much for sharing this.

Oh yeah? Well, I saw a super expert ask the piercing gotcha question on that (Tucker C): "if climate change is real, how come we still have winter?" (answer for those in question, earth spin axis tilted 23 degrees makes shorter days away from equator. Do experiment w basketball & flashlight if you are doubtful on this) Back on subject: VERY MUCH looking forward to your thoughts on Melitopol axis. I was actually looking at a map at the northern front and wonder about UKR doing a short left hook thru RU territory to bypass RU defenses. only 5 mile penetration and then turn east another ~10 miles or so. It's a really stupid idea probably but it was fun to think about. The force would have left flank hanging in the wind, bad idea #1. Would be considered escalatory, bad idea #2. The way the border runs at the north end of the line does make it look tempting.

Well, your profession, yes. Along w epidemiologists. And scientists in general these days. And anyone that actually knows things based on crazy **** called 'evidence'. But your point is well taken, folks aren't writing history books decades later questioning every choice in most other professions. Like articles that come out saying how US could've won in Vietnam if we just used "this one simple trick", basically. Almost forgot: brilliant post today. It's almost as if you actually 'know things'. (emojis added for clarity)

Good summary here today. UKR looking like it's setting stage for Bakhmut withdrawal. SU-35 shot down. Report of RU moving troops from Kremmina area down to Vuledar, which totally makes sense in RU kind of way. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/3/2155994/-Ukraine-update-Situation-at-Bakhmut-critical-as-bridge-is-blown-and-some-troops-withdraw

That has got to be the record for hits on the tiger. I thought I had some crazy hits before but this is another level. We are not worthy

Almost as if UKR is saying "look everybody, we're about to make big strike in the south". Maybe is just to confuse RU. I don't suppose we'll see much until the mud is gone, but ya never know.

Hang on, much respected ChrisL. NYT has had good coverage overall. This is all op ed stuff. I look at their UKR section every day. It totally aint tankie.

You are also an airplane guy. So even more weird.

This is not exactly UKR current war, but certainly could be in a year or so. Only 1:44 long video. At 48 seconds in some weird looking vehicles crest a ridge..... HOLY F THERE'S STRYKERS W JAVELIN LAUNCHERS & THE 30mm CANNON TURRET SYSTEM. OMFG!!!! Mobiks will want no part of this s--t! I just gave notice at my job of 22 years for a crazy new job and was thinking I needed a present to reward myself for being brave. How do I get this game??

Serbia? I thought they were pro russia? I guess not. I gotta keep up.

I was just messin' w ya, TheCapt. Please punish not this unworthy wretch. I think you are right, it's probably sarcasm. That poor wounded guy must've been utterly miserable -- But hey, next time turn your gun on your masters & defect and there will probably be a better outcome.

If he had just used the proper emojis we would've known, no? (TheCapt is going to make me suffer for this one....)

Seems like worst propaganda video ever, though: "we're stranded here two days, w wounded. Oh, up there's our burning tank. Everything is just dandy! Hugs & kisses to Comrade Putin, thanks for letting us share in your glory here in this hole, pinned down & freezing."

Interesting summary here today. There's video of RU tank crew stranded, w wounded, in a crater a few hundred meters back from their burning tank. Yet they are all saying "glory to russia". Shouldn't they be saying "we need evac ASAP?". It was a very weird video. Another one shows UKR soldiers riding a BMP but w thick mud on their legs up to the knee. What a mess. Meanwhile, Bakhmut still doing Bakhmut things, for the moment. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/1/2155616/-Ukraine-update-After-a-night-and-morning-of-fierce-fighting-Bakhmut-still-holds

Interesting article in NYT today, if you can get past paywall. About destroying RU armored columns around Vulehdar. Title is kinda over the top, says 'tank battles' but it's really combined arms destroying RU armor. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tanks.html Here we are on March 1. Bakhmut looks bad, but as long as UKR gets its folks out w their gear, is it really all that bad? Depends on the damage done to each side, I suppose, because Bakhmut itself is not exactly war changing terrain. Meanwhile, RU getting clobbered around Vulehdar, and making no progress anywhere else outside Bakhmut. Which all gets back to the question that keeps nagging at me: how much can RU get ready in a month or two for UKR offensive? And just how good is UKR at offensive actions? No one knows when ground will be dry enough for UKR to make its move. And we don't know where. We all think in the south but maybe they feint that and go for Starobilsk first. Right now RU can defend just along roads but when ground dries they have to defend hundreds of KM of line. That's gonna be quite a test for those RU troops & commanders.

Demographics: while all the idiots are selectively having boys, the smart ones stick w girls who will be more valued, as per ye olde supply & demand. Haiduk is getting indications that Bakhmut is in trouble. Other than symbolically I know it's not a big loss, but I was kinda hoping it could continue to act as a graveyard for RU. Looks like its getting expensive both ways.

Putin's trying hard to pass that thing across table w/o seagal breathing on him, totally freaked because seagal is leaning in. I think he's holding his breath.

Oh, you too, huh? That happened on my old jeep once back in the day. Easy to repair at least, once I got it home. Recovery & logistics systems were in place so didn't have to abandon it to the russians.

for sure, he does. How many many times have we said "only have to knock out three spots & the whole system is down"

Why fight here at all? I'd be trying to buy the guys who have power, it'd be super cheap. And big bonus for securing ammo & weapons & vehicles. Offer passage to 3rd party country or whatever it takes, plus a nice pile of cash. Once it's over, maybe renege on the offer. If the transnistra crooks think their days are numbered I suspect they'd be open to a buyout.