danfrodo

Yeah, I would pay a lot to have ost front 41-43 added. And of course N Africa 40-42. But sounds like the more modern stuff is what sells best. I was shocked when I heard this, I thought "who doesn't love ww2 best?". Turns out lots of people.

Summary here for today was interesting in that it says lots ~90 attacks yesterday by small RU groups, w over 700 dead and at least 37 vehicles destroyed. Includes UKR report saying some troops near Vulehdar mutinied and refused to attack -- we've seen that before and I suppose it doesn't matter unless it somehow grows. But I am sure RU is good at stamping these things out before they spread. Seems like guys w guns, going to nearly certain death in pointless attacks, might think they've got a better chance shooting their masters and then surrendering?? If it could just grow..... but that's just more wishful thinking on my end. Note: is it just me or does the photo at the bottom look totally photoshopped -- look at the feet. Seems odd. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/23/2154575/-Ukraine-update-As-anniversary-of-invasion-approaches-Russian-forces-have-no-presents-for-Putin edit/addition: in the comments below someone posted pics of very rusty RU ammo, allegedly was sent to Wagner. That would be a hoot, RU military truthfully recording delivery of thousands of shells knowing most were duds or unstable and deadly. Those zany RU regular military guys seem to have retained their sense of humor (if this is true).

Yeah, you are right. My post was just wishful thinking. What the hell was I thinking? I deleted it so as not not cause myself further embarrassment

xxx

Ah, silly me. When you said "caring for their own" I thought you meant China & chinese people. What the hell was I thinking?? Great point -- somehow or other Xi believes this helps consolidate his own power, despite how utterly stupid it is for china overall. Which one would think would end up being bad for Xi. But like you said, maybe he's got some sneaky stuff up his sleeve. Or maybe Putler promised to give him oil & gas at some insane price for the next 10 years?

I understand how this could make sense ideologically. It's just really stupid from a practical standpoint of what is good for China, meaning caring about their own. Belligerence like this is simply self defeating -- where's the gain? Stop US 'hegemony'? We are massive trading partners, what US 'hegemony' is hurting china? China should be reassuring investors that it's a nice, reliable place for long term investment and supply chain needs. I want china painted as abetting terrorism so that folks decide that "vietnam is nice this time of year". Vietnam, malaysia, indonesia, mexico, et al, will happily take all those jobs & factories.

WTF is China thinking? All they are doing is making confrontation w the countries w which they have the most to lose. It's so stupid. Jeeebus, why on earth would you wreck your economically necessary trade relationships to support some serial mass murdering war criminal who is gonna lose in the end, even he does manage to hold some of the land. US now needs to go on PR campaign of all the murder & mayhem being sewn by Putler. The PR china wants is they are being responsible in standing up for soverienty, etc. The PR that needs to happen is that they are aiding and abetting terrorism.

Like permanent tatoo? That is wild. Y'all Philly folks is bonkers.

which country went dark??

Stay on script, Joe, stay on script. No winging it w so much on the line. I hope I have this much punch at 80. He wasn't my first choice be dang he's done an amazing job w UKR support ('cept we wanted more, faster). Poland and Biden and UK Johnson & Baltics really set the stage.

I think Steve put it best (paraphrase): all the conditions are in place for a regime collapse, doesn't mean it will happen soon or at all. All the conditions are in place for a military collapse, doesn't mean it will happen soon or at all. But we've all seen what collapse looks like. Things are tense and there's pressure and somehow the system holds, defying all expectations, until suddenly is doesn't. A UKR offensive (ISR/corrosion/actual troops) that cuts supply lines to the western end of Kherson Oblast would probably cause a nice collapse of the Dnieper front, w units scurrying back to Crimea as fast as possible. This is totally possible, especially if UKR gets missiles to the cut the Crimea bridges. A breakthrough to Starobilsk from Svatove would probably cause a front collapse all the way down past Kreminna. But those items above are both nasty fights, probably.

I remember posting similar points nearly a year ago. Look at all the things Putin would not want and how many of them his failed coup-war has accomplished. Actually, if we just judge him on his accomplishments it's really impressive. The only problem is that these results were for the other side, but still he should get several gold stars for effort. He's: unified NATO pushed Finland and Sweden into NATO made every country on his border get very serious about defense accelerated the move away from fossil fuels by a decade Reduced the military threat of RU for a generation Accelerated the 'stans' countries in becoming more independent Sent a lot of really talented technical professionals to the west -- thx! Introduced millions of noobs into the concept of what is and what is not a tank, which should actually be taught in schools but sadly is not On political unity, anyone that can make me actually complement Mitch McConnell is a real miracle worker. (note I have put those complements in writing here on the forum multiple times) So let's all take a moment to praise the genius of Putin, who has done things that most people thought were simply impossible.

Hey CivDiv, just finished this one. Excellent book, thx for the tip. Also just finished this one, audiobook (free in Audible catalog): https://www.amazon.com/Those-Who-Hold-Bastogne-Civilians/dp/B00RA3PT24/ref=sr_1_2?crid=1E5LNGV196FTA&keywords=bastogne&qid=1676936897&sprefix=bastogne%2Caps%2C163&sr=8-2 I thought I knew all I needed to know about ardennes campaign, I was wrong. I was shocked at the intensity of the fighting around Bastogne after Patton's troops made contact w the kessel. The casualties were terrible on both sides as US tried to widen the supply route and perimeter while germans kept trying to take Bastogne / close the supply route.

beyond brilliant. Some people are so funny and talented and then of course there's the Putins & Putinites of the world. Not funny. Much less talented.

Knowing UKR, they'll probably do something for Feb 22-24 but have something bigger planned for a week or so later when RU's guard is done & thinks UKR already spent it's longer range weapons.

from your keyboard to the War God's ear. I'm hoping to see RU make a really costly attack that greatly weakens them.

This is a problem why? What is your point? That we watch sports and therefore are not able to focus the world because our brains are mush? The super bowl was 3.5 hours and was a blessed break from the real world, hardly something that otherwise intelligent folks don't have time for on a February sunday. I had a nice party w lots of fried chicken, a long tradition dating back to prehistory at least 5 years.

Dammit, I am in middle of new RT battlepack and you drop this on me? It's like at work where for every project done two more enter the in-box. Like I have time for this.

So, getting back to the war. Does anyone else have any reports of a major RU attacks yesterday N & S of bakhmut? Also, any news of RU troops massing elsewhere on the line? I keep wondering if Putler has ordered NordWind offensive now that Wacht am Rhein has failed. Today is Feb 20, two days to the anniversary. I hope UKR has a surprise that will outdo whatever surprise Putler has on offer. Maybe some long range missile strikes using missiles that weren't yet known to be in theater? Didn't UK promise some longer range missiles?

deleted, not worth it

Let us all recall that Aragorn has been very sure that RU could not be trusted and would act aggressively, always. He also thought we were mostly overoptimistic in how RU would continue to make this war very hard for UKR. He was right. He seems to believe that Xi is just as crazy. I thought that economic interdependence would make aggressive war like this too stupid for even a dictator to attempt -- I was wrong. So now I look at China and say "they have nothing to gain that is even 1% of the economic damage they would do themselves". Yet it is now clear that doing something really obviously stupid and self defeating is no longer a barrier. Humans are crazy, especially dictator humans. It's like they get bored or something. Having complete power over 144M people, or 1B people, is just not enough it seems. Gotta always have a little more. Like a billionaire who goes to jail because he cheats on $10M in taxes -- how was that worth it?

Echoing DanCA above, I wasn't thinking that UKR would do much attacking except very local. RU needs a lot more than very local success and where they do advance I want their forward elements out of contact w supplies ASAP. Anyone putting their cards on the table for predictions about what Putin's anniversary mischief will be? I am betting on a massive drone & missile strike coupled with airplanes, all intended to overwhelm UKR AD and hit some things. I suppose those things should be something actually useful to the war effort, but instead I think it will just be aimed at murdering lots of people and cutting civilian infrastructure. Lots of videos for RU state TV to trumpet about RU military power. I also think US intel probably has a very good idea about what's coming and so does UKR. Meanwhile, it looks like RU decided to fire off all its artillery and attack heavily N & S of bakhmut today, via Denys Davydov latest video. Hopefully they run short on shells & men quickly.

Weather shows Bakhmut having high temperatures well above freezing starting next saturday, with lows around freezing. So definitely the right time to start a big offensive. All the supply trucks stuck in mud while the advance troops start running out of ammo & fuel.

If UKR needs until summer to get up to desired strength, I do wonder what kind of corrosion & shaping it will be doing in the meantime. Not going on a major offensive does not mean they do nothing. Hopefully they can knock out a lot of supply assets (rail, depots, vehicles, etc) in the meantime. And allegedly UK is sending some longer range missiles?

Oh, I missed that part -- Lukashenko is in RU, meeting Putin. Suddenly this is much more interesting. I get that Putler is probably stuck w Lukashenko for now, but I sure would like to see another blunder by him that further weakens his already disasterous situation. Like depose Lukashenko & try to impose new puppet but military & population rebel and there's mess too big for him to quell considering he's got every RU w a gun kinda busy right now. Well, a feller can dream, and I like that dream.