danfrodo

Keep jabbing, keep shaping, keep draining the enemy, keep causing fear & demoralization. Every week UKR gets more & better of everything relative to the enemy. I think UKR will be doing something in May but I don't think it's the big one yet. Why do that when you're getting stronger and have a 4-5 month campaign season, while RU hasn't even called for a new mobilizaiton -- that could speed things up for UKR, knowing there's more mobiks coming to fill trenches.

Denys Davydov shows on map where UKR made a little punch today. Plus very surprising video of UKR tank chasing RU infantry out of the omnipresent strip of woods -- as in, literally chasing them from a few meters away.

that was a rant? It wasn't even a diatribe, or a sternly worded talking-to. So what are you suggesting will happen for May, and then June? I think May is lots of shaping, misdirection, probing, and relatively small exploitation when opportunity arises, like 5-10km advance here & there. Putin's head will be spinning and hopefully he'll overreact in one place leading to setback in another. Then later June/early July UKR hits somewhere really, really hard. Prolly in the south as you suggest.

ohhhhh, that stryker two pages ago had a 30mm gun. Glad someone notice that. That gives me a really warm fuzzy feeling. And imagine if we had those in CMBS -- I wouldn't be rapid reversing every time I see a stupid BMP.

BillBinDC, that should win award for forum post of the month. Clear, insightful, well written, succinct. Much appreciated. Now, can we please get back to the discussion of how the omniscient all seeing eye of UKR's ISR should be killing every RU schmuck digging a ditch using its infinite supply of precision long range missiles?

Perun made some good points in his his 'counterattack' video. One of the big takeaways for me was that much of the pledged armor & artillery systems for 2023 haven't even arrived yet. Which means that UKR knows it will be able to replace equipment losses w ally-provided equipment, and soon. Maybe RU is making more BMPs but not at the rate that UKR will receive armor this campaign season. And once again I'll get on my soapbox that UKR probably won't have giant, immediate counterattack. it will have a series of events of varying size over the next 4 months, each one setting up RU for the next one, shaping the battlespace bit by bit and unhinging RU forces, bit by bit.

A weary world rejoices.... New Perun video! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIYC_WUSw4c

Quick take on usefulness of the 80 or so Leo1s supposedly in UKR. Writer ways will be good tool for mopping up bypassed RU trenches/strongpoints, allowing main force to keep moving ahead. Also believes will be good for attacking RU forces holed up in urban redoubts. My personal take is that having a highly mobile pillbox w a big gun and an MG plus good optics is generally a good thing relative to only having AFVs, assuming the logistics cost is not overburdensome. I think of these similar to the AMX10 -- adding firepower to what up to now were UKR mech units just MGs or BMP mounted guns. Plus I love tanks. This is known bias on my part. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/7/2167931/-Quick-Explainer-Leopard-1s-to-arrive-in-time-with-a-key-role-to-play

Jeebus, can we just stop please? Yes, fine, India will rule the world in 7 years by leveraging the economic power of their hundreds of millions of shockingly impoverished, barely nourished, poorly educated, utterly neglected rural people. Great, I completely agree. Now can we please drop this?

On top of the material issues, RU suffers from the soft factors: morale, will to win, training. Also basics like quality/quanity of food, medical care, rotations, gear, officer quality, officer concern for men, men's trust in officers, etc.

interesting thought.....

Thanks RedWolf. I gave the current machine a thorough cleaning and will limp along for now. But I really like the microcenter idea. I cleaned it a while ago but was not rigorous. I will get a new one soon, but feeling less urgent -- until the fan goes off again

Oh, so you are saying that buying HP/dell/Lenovo I might end up w non standard power supply that might not be upgradable later? How would I know? So you would build your own? Or other suggestions for pre-built? I mentioned HP because I can get a pretty good discount on some of their machines -- but maybe not really saving money because of what you mention above.

Thanks everyone, this is great advice, very much appreciated. I know I should clean out this desktop but it's like 8 years old and I kinda just wanna get into the modern world. It was a very expensive engineering workstation back then but was obsoleted when I rec'd upgrade machine every few years from work so I just started using this for gaming since it was just sitting here at home already doing nothing.

Hey all, I have an old desktop that has been making more & more disturbing noises like fan going out of control for very long periods. Plus it's just old. So I am thinking of a new desktop. I want it to be good for CM and also for what CM might be in a few years. I don't do any reflex-oriented games. Just CM & a very occasional other strategy game. My question: what are the basics for what to get and what to avoid? Like is intel less problematic than AMD? General tips? I will probably buy an HP because I still get discount there from my friends there (I just left there after 22 years) -- they are very much allowed to buy for friends w employee discount, so can say it here. I don't really want to build a PC, though I know that's what smart people do. Of course, anyone who's seen what I post on the forum knows I am not a smart person already. So, what tips, both pos & neg, do y'all have?

We don't know whether Bakhmut means no shell shortage or whether that local heavy usage is actually causing a shell shortage over the rest of the front. We'll find out soon.

As if Prigozhin himself has no responsibility for this?????? He's the one shoving them into the meat grinder. He's the one grabbing inmates and throwing them into the fight w no training.

I'm still of the opinion that this won't be a giant attack. I know I might be completely wrong, but I think UKR has a counteroffensive season ahead, not a big single counteroffensive. I would prefer a single big super successful one, starting tomorrow. But I wonder if we'll have a lot of "is this the big one?" days before we really see 'the big one'

Is that in Ukraine? And the ground is dry? Too bad not that dry in the east. But just look at that beauty! I looooooove me some Leo2!

what was it that RU general said in WW2 when Stalin wanted to take back Crimea? I think it was along the lines of "why? It's a giant prison camp for German 17th army where they have to feed themselves"

I know that it won't happen, but what if Putin went somewhere and was arrested? My first thought is "OMG Ru possible nuke! Immediate war!" Then I thought.... but who w access to the levers of power (FSB, military, other) wants him back?? They'd be way too busy fighting each other for power. Hilarious thought I had of Putin calling everyone he knows and no one will post bail.

This is definitely how I've been thinking the campaign season will go. And instead of some big Wacht Am Rhein counteroffensive I believe we will see UKR operating a campaign season. Offensive operations perations cutting RU in multiple places for the next 5 months, shaping opportunities then striking. They will work to unhinge RU forces wherever they can via cutting logistics. Hopefully some big breakthroughs and RU sector collapse along the way w most of the Feb22 borders restored. I am also wondering if UKR might first do some attacks on Bakhmut's flanks, just because it's such a target of opportunity and might draw in RU reserves, at which point UKR stops there and hits elsewhere in another limited fashion. Control the narrative by forcing RU to react at various places in turn, with RU never know whether each new one is the big one. Attrit RU as they move reserves to each new place.

I just realized there's an added benefit to this war ending (w UKR victory, of course): all the history books start to get written and we'll get some insight into what is actually going on. A war where 60+ yr old tanks are dragged out of storage and sent to fight in a war w modern high tech like drones, satellites, guided missiles. Crazy. Prighozin stuff in this summary. Threatening to retreat from Bakhmut if he doesn't get ammo. Plus the split command structure where each front commander only cares about his own area. Just what is needed to inhibit a coordinated defense. It would be great to have RU's own command create heavy friction leading to reinforcements arriving too piecemeal and too late, plus refusal to send one's own ammo to a sector running out of shells. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/30/2166734/-Ukraine-Update-Wagner-mercenary-chief-Prigozhin-Russia-is-on-the-brink-of-catastrophe

And they don't surrender. Alone and under attack, can't have both grenade & rifle active so very vulnerable. what the heck are they thinking??? Raise the white flag and get some good food and shelter.

Germany's civilian population was starving and its army was going to have to retreat, probably all the way back to germany, after the failure of its final offensive. So it 'decided' to quit because it was basically beaten. But this was also a really good thing. Letting Germany just go home. If France et al had tried to invade & occupy germany it would've been very ugly, maybe mutinous for France. This strategic mistake was only a mistake because of the terms the allies later forced onto germany. Note that germany forced Russia into the treaty of brest-litovsk just a year before that was way worse than versailles. Also, german plans for terms for France and friends following victory in the west were much worse than Versailles. But it still stands that versailles was foolish, despite germany wanting to do much worse had it won.