danfrodo

Once again we are faced w the choice between an evidence based reality and a faith based reality. We could be wrong but thinking other than we currently do might actually require some...... evidence.

Putin: "so you're saying there's a chance? And with just this one little trick?"

and yet another opinion about what's going on around Bakhmut. denys Davydov says UKR massing to the north around Siversk for possible penetration toward Bakhmut via Soledar to cut off RU forces. I doubt it during this mud, but maybe ISR shows a wide open flank? Probably just UKR messing w Prig's head, using Denys D to push some fake narrative. I guess we'll find out, hopefully soon.

indeed, indeed. fixed.

Summary from this feller for today. He wants to pull out of Bakhmut to the hills to the WEST. Hard to say right move here, but he believes the mud could hinder a withdrawal and make a mess for UKR, so says get out now. Some graphics showing the local elevation and supposed new defense lines. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/6/2156587/-Ukraine-update-It-s-time-to-pull-back-from-Bakhmut

Well, they are, quite literally, for hire.

Is Prig so stupid he doesn't realize how totally expendable he is?? As if no one else can run the wagner circus. If he keeps running his mouth he's gonna be dead.

Thanks for that post, MZ. And let me add: please, everyone, let's not go into a vietnam rabbit hole on this thread. Things are serious in UKR right now and let's keep the communication net free of irrelevant-to-UKR chatter. Someone really looking to dive into vietnam could start a new thread. I am guessing "make friends w folks that have fossil fuels?" and protect their new soveriegnty via weapons & support. In exchange for nice oil concessions, of course.

Prig is surrounded by militarily skilled criminals for hire. What is most likely is someone will simply outbid Prig, by a lot, and Prig will be dead. We already know these men make a living via murder for money, so it's an easy choice.

Dang, well said. Or as Bruce Springsteen said "my songs are about the distance between the american dream and the american reality"

So is the warcrimes of the past stuff done now, please? Or start a new thread? We can find crimes against humanity for bunches of countries: US, germany, belgium, UK, france, etc. But here we're focusing on the UKR war where there's plenty of crime to keep us busy w/o bringing up cold cases. RU breakup: we see lots of social media stuff of RU folks being super-nationalist, mothers saying it's OK if their sons die killing UKR people, etc. But I wonder how much of that sentiment we would find in the hinterlands and less ethnically russian areas? I say this because we know that Putin is grabbing many more per capita from these areas than from Euro-RU. This could greatly add to grievances pushing areas toward revolt. Here we are months into the Bakhmut fight and we still don't really know what's what. UKR is bleeding RU white -- maybe? RU is preempting UKR spring offensive by drawing in UKR mech brigades? RU has ammo shortage? No, wait, UKR has mortar shortage? I suspect we'll see these varying opinions until the ground dries. So I am going to try to not get too caught up in each day's events. Which is actually a good thing to do in general -- there's lots of stories that make big headlines that are forgotten a few days later. Sometimes good practice to wait & see what actually matters on the scale of a week, or a month. Like Joe/Jill Biden ordering the same thing for dinner -- that one really really matters, it was good to see the media covering such important matters at such length (of course someone must've been clicking on it or watching it, f--ing idiots)

I wasn't exactly sure what I most expected, then BillBinDC told me exactly what I was thinking but didn't know I was thinking.

To me, these guys seem very unlikely to ever have power in Moscow. I think they are far from the actual levers of actual power. I'd bet on someone in security apparatus that is actually in Moscow and can get powerful forces, like security services and military, behind him quickly to stabilize the situation. Why would military back prigozhin? Or some social media clown like Ghirkin? They are loud but they have no real power on their own -- if RU army stops supplies Wagner is just a bunch of starving bandits.

Now that is interesting..... using jets as a flexible, mobile air defense against drone/glider attacks. Very interesting.

Girkin's a woman? Huh, I thought Putin didn't like trans folks. Though this does explain quite a bit, like the oddly fake looking mustache.

Legacy: every new person to my simulation group says "fortran sucks, we must convert everything to C++ or python!". Then we explain that we can spend the next year re-writing perfectly functioning code only to have the same thing we have now after a year of salary, just in a different language and running about the same speed (or worse). Or they can take a few weeks to become proficient enough at fortran to just add what we need when that comes up. It's a totally predictable cycle we've been through over & over & over. Meanwhile, I am just sitting here waiting for the ground to dry....... RU has 800 km front to cover when that happens. Gonna be interesting. Fortunately RU has wisely moved to combined arms by adding naval gun turrets to MTLBs -- this is really next level thinking, bringing the navy onto the land, brilliant. Because sanctions, corruption, and stupidity has totally not made a dent in RU armored vehicle production.

I think I'd rephrase this as "The possibility of functioning nukes..." Doesn't matter whether they work or are accurate in reality because the only way to really find out is the bad way. There's a strong chance they could be and so we all have to behave as if a significant percentage will work properly.

ah, I see your point. But are you saying UKR could go forward now, in the mud? I know infantry can infiltrate thru muddy fields but it seems like they could really be left hanging w/o hope without at least some HUMMVs they could get back to if wounded, and thru the mud? If they have to walk a km in and then a km behind the lines, that's a long way to to go w wounded. I was thinking they infiltrate and weaken defenses. Then the machines come forward and finish things off, while also bringing all the nice logistical stuff. Which is why I was thinking that RU still mainly only has to man the roads w fields only lightly covered. I am like a setup guy for you so that you can step in & knock down amateur-hour ideas.

Some thoughts: 1. we talk about 800km of front. But it's really not that right now for RU. They only have to cover the roads right now. When the ground dries, then all the factors that will (hopefully, probably) doom RU will come into play. Lack of ISR, arty, bad troops w bad gear in bad defenses. 2. As was mentioned above, China would probably not invade. It would try to get regions to declare independence and then help those regions via recognition, weapons, ISR, etc. ChrisL: While I do need to get out more, I was just struck by the communication and combined arms involved in this. Single soldier in what should be a death trap, talks to his friends who use drone. He wiggles gun and the friends shoot up the orcs. I was really impressed. I've seen tons of videos of drone-directed work, but this one was so very specific to just one surrounded guy.

That is the most amazing thing I have seen in ages, thx very much for sharing this.

Oh yeah? Well, I saw a super expert ask the piercing gotcha question on that (Tucker C): "if climate change is real, how come we still have winter?" (answer for those in question, earth spin axis tilted 23 degrees makes shorter days away from equator. Do experiment w basketball & flashlight if you are doubtful on this) Back on subject: VERY MUCH looking forward to your thoughts on Melitopol axis. I was actually looking at a map at the northern front and wonder about UKR doing a short left hook thru RU territory to bypass RU defenses. only 5 mile penetration and then turn east another ~10 miles or so. It's a really stupid idea probably but it was fun to think about. The force would have left flank hanging in the wind, bad idea #1. Would be considered escalatory, bad idea #2. The way the border runs at the north end of the line does make it look tempting.

Well, your profession, yes. Along w epidemiologists. And scientists in general these days. And anyone that actually knows things based on crazy **** called 'evidence'. But your point is well taken, folks aren't writing history books decades later questioning every choice in most other professions. Like articles that come out saying how US could've won in Vietnam if we just used "this one simple trick", basically. Almost forgot: brilliant post today. It's almost as if you actually 'know things'. (emojis added for clarity)

Good summary here today. UKR looking like it's setting stage for Bakhmut withdrawal. SU-35 shot down. Report of RU moving troops from Kremmina area down to Vuledar, which totally makes sense in RU kind of way. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/3/2155994/-Ukraine-update-Situation-at-Bakhmut-critical-as-bridge-is-blown-and-some-troops-withdraw

That has got to be the record for hits on the tiger. I thought I had some crazy hits before but this is another level. We are not worthy

Almost as if UKR is saying "look everybody, we're about to make big strike in the south". Maybe is just to confuse RU. I don't suppose we'll see much until the mud is gone, but ya never know.