danfrodo

Next time I think I should feel sorry for some RU schmuck dying in a trench, I'll remember this article. Sorry for paywall. UKR mothers take ~3000 mile journey to get their kids out of RU-occupied regions. They go through Poland-Belarus-Russia-occupied region, get kid, then similar trip back though seems able to cross directly Belaus-UKR. The sooner they are all dead (or surrendered) the better. The child kidnapping part of this war makes my blood absolutely boil. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/world/europe/ukrainian-children-mothers-russia.html

Wow, y'all are on a roll. Great posts. I teared up a little at the U2-background training 'warning' to Putin. And then laughed out loud at the 'leak' video. The discussion of the southern front offensive was the really excellent bit. All of these are interesting and possible. So much of what UKR does, I think, depends on what they see as the opportunity areas. If RU heavily reinforces the line Vasylivka-tokmak, maybe UKR makes its move further east (with the cost of have both flanks hostile) and trying to unhinge that line. I still want to get RU betting heavily on one end of the line or the other, meaning convince them the attack is coming south or coming to Luhansk. The second best option is where they try to defend everything and spread out their strength (hopefully close to front line), which is what I think is most likely. The more planning that Putin himself can do the better of course, as he's taken the Hitler course on defensive operations. Putin was fooled once and made ridiculously amateur decision to double down in Kherson which led to double disaster, so it'll be interesting to see if or how that influences his thinking going forward. Perhaps we can think of Bakhmut & entire winter offensive as Putin's Kursk? Burning up mountains of valuable men, resources & time while in the end only leaving him open to exploitation of his weakened sectors.

I am thinking same as you, Grossman. The southern front attack would be best as far east as possible for purpose of cutting off maximum RU forces. The other side of that would be that an attack farther west would be farther from help from the RU forces in Donetsk. That front is ~200km long which is a lot of land to cover w depleted forces. Once Kerch and or Crimea bridges are cut those RU forces are doomed.

That looks really bad. That one stretch of road must be under close observation, I wonder if UKR can clear that spot. Unless RU just using drones and well timed, accurate artillery, which seems unlikely. Hopefully UKR has cleared out the trouble makers that got so close to the supply line. Very disheartening.

Good point, I didn't look closely at what had been shared until after I posted. But going forward if you, Beleg, TheCapt & others could please restrict your comments to things that I want to hear instead of things that make sense it would be greatly appreciated.

That's what I was thinking also. Whether this is an actual leak, meaning stolen intel, or a feint, it can still be used to confuse Herr Putler about the Pas de Calais attack if you get my meaning. I mentioned a recently that by the time UKR attacks there will be so much information that RU will be confused even though it actually has the correct info because it won't know what is real & what is fake. In a situation where leaks could be devastating, maybe the best thing to do is to pre-empt w lots of true & false data. Either way, I think UKR will have multiple plans which can be triggered based on what bait RU bites.

Really good summary here today w some stuff I haven't seen here. Reports of three train attacks by UKR partisans (?) around Melitopol. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/6/2162416/-Ukraine-Update-Melitopol-turns-out-to-be-a-very-bad-place-for-Russia-to-park-a-train

deleted, not worth the vacation

Summary here for today. Discusses artillery ammo usage rates & current & projected production rates. But also points out that there's a lot of RU shells that get destroyed behind the lines that are much harder to count. We've all heard front line soldiers complain of lack of artillery. Either UKR is short or it's hoarding, hopefully the latter. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/5/2162186/-Ukraine-Update-What-happens-next-in-Russia-s-invasion-of-Ukraine-may-be-down-to-a-single-word-Ammo

The huge #1 hit song for over a year now. Covered, recorded & released by a huge number of forum singers. Yet still seems some folks haven't heard it. Beleg85: thanks for the Hugh Laurie song, brilliant. A quick comedy skit is often worth 10,000 words of rational discussion. Could y'all slow down? New job keeping me busy and takes me an hour every night to catch up! I heard rumor (Denys Davydov today) that UKR attacking northern Andiivka salient. I hope this turns out to be true, hopefully this rumor will turn out to be true over next couple days w some success. THere's no way the new RU salients could have solid defenses w such worn out forces in those new territories when every warm body is attacking, not digging defense in depth.

I am sure Graham Hancock has a book in the works saying that romans settled in Australia, where they would of course have somehow changed the course of Australian history. Back to the war: some excellent posts folks, thx. Good take on the critical big picture, where RU has expended it's resources while UKR (we believe) has husbanded theirs. When the ground dries the entire front must be covered, much of it with very poor quality forces, could be quite a wild ride for old Putler. Summary today from this fella really good. Some footage I hadn't seen. And a great cartoon at the bottom. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/4/2161994/-Ukraine-Update-In-Bakhmut-an-unusual-weapon-put-to-use-with-devastating-results 105mm shells.... didn't we send some 105mm artillery? I seem to recall that.

I am never ever going to F w you great post, very funny -- though frightening

Yeah, I may yet end up in a disaster here. But at least I'm goin' down fightin'. The dang fog really hurts! As was certainly intended. I am guessing there was fog during the actual battle?

And our tigers regain the upper hand. How you like me now GeorgeMC-ovich? The Boss is not gonna be happy when you tell him how many of his namesake tanks just got smoked. He'll say "GeorgeMC-ovich, if I knew you were going to mishandle these tanks so badly I would've named them Beria tanks, or maybe after that bald punk, Krushchev. It does not look good to have a bunch of 'Josef Stalin' tanks burning, now does it? Do not fail me again, GeorgeMC-ovich." Two of the smoke columns are mine, sadly. But the rest were JS2s that were supposed to be an attack that turned into a very nasty meeting engagement in the fog when my attack blundered into soviet attack. Two more JS2s destroyed. Also found & flanked the last one that was hiding in the trees. My two remaining tigers just loaded up infantry are will be heading into the soviet flank now with a trail of some more infantry. I have taken the distant objective first. Despite losses, I hope to have enough combat power in this group to flank the near objective while engaging from the front. Sounds good on paper, but so did invading Russia in the first place and that didn't turn out so well. I know there's big concentration of soviet infantry still on the map, and who knows what else. Hopefully I can use dead ground to sneak up on the objective from behind w/o being exposed.

It's all about how we frame this event. I would say "pro Russian drag queens attack Ukrainian soldier in a church!". (they do all kinda dress like drag queens, btw, and the higher up they go the more elaborate the gowns. I grew up catholic, same thing there). Anyway, this kind of framing would very much confuse RU nats on how to react to this event.

Some interesting bits here today. I don't think I've seen the video of T80BV getting blasted here before. Some speculation on whether RU military or other Prigozhin haters are purposefully working to make sure his outfit gets smashed at Bakhmut. Also it sounds like the new head of the UN Sec Council is classic bats--t crazy RU official. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/2/2161636/-Ukraine-Update-Is-the-Russian-military-using-Bakhmut-to-destroy-Wagner-mercenaries

sorry for forum distraction, but this is such a hoot. Joining Idaho at least makes some sense. Making their own state means they would have basically zero state resources, because tiny, poor population. They'd be proclaiming how they are free and independent and self reliant and be begging the feds for handouts via other people's tax dollars-- Using their two senators, of course, in our deeply undemocratic system.

I am having a very bad time at Ogledow, unlike Dlw's original post here. I decided to go on the offensive right away w 5 tigers and infantry support. One tiger picked sniped by something but I kept going. Ran into a buzz saw of JS2 tanks. Was all in my favor at first then things started going very, very badly. Stupid fog putting RU tanks into point blank range. Tigers leave town on a hunting mission. Well, the ones that actually work left town. https://imgur.com/anQO2Jq Everything OK so far, had a quick fight w RU forces in copse of trees but only one casualty on my side. https://imgur.com/PHsHw And now we've got a fight: JS2 shows up. and dies, HA take that GeorgeMC-ovich! Burn, baby, burn. I was feeling pretty good at this point. Three JS2 down, no loss on my side. Victory for my tigers, though the close range is terrifying. A few minutes later..... and I've lost three of my 5 tigers. At least they died w sword in hand and will go to tank valhalla, unlike all the ones that simply broke down. And the fight goes on. I do not think tiger2s were made for this kind of close up fighting. All my advantages are gone due to fog, but won this duel at 50m. Is this all the JS2s?? Are there more? There was one on my left in some trees earlier but I hit him though not a kill. Is his gun damaged? So I have managed to wreck a bunch of tigers, lose some infantry, and still don't have the objective. This aint good. What else is hiding back there in the fog??? https://imgur.com/anQO2J

I saw this last night on Denys Davydov daily YT video. I kept thinking that they are playing a very dangerous game. And for Putin it's probably also a good look at what he might face internally if he did choose to end the war. Well, sow the wind.....

Flippin' psychopath. A country where all the sane people fled or are afraid to speak out and all that's left are the lunatics doing the talking.

Yeah, dimwits from very rural Oregon counties want to leave evil liberal Oregon and go to Idaho. YES PLEASE! Your counties take in WAY more state money than you pay in taxes. So take your stupid a--es to Idaho and let them pay to keep your roads open & maintained & your power on & all your medicaid expenses and law enforcement. The evil liberals thank you for reducing their tax burden . I just did my taxes and owe the state an extra $2800, which I suppose would be less if I wasn't subsidizing these folks. Beleg85 video above was great. I read what it was first and don't understand ukrainian and still burst out laughing when he was stuffing his mouth w sushi. Great one. Meanwhile, more mud. Maybe this is OK for now. I bet UKR would like more time to prepare for the spring offensives and this mud will make RU attacks that much more difficult.

A summary for today from my usual source. Says a russian frigate reported to have been hit? Not war changing but always fun to punch RU navy. Plus some good visuals. And a video at the top that makes my blood boil at what Putin has done. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/1/2161475/-Ukraine-Update-Battle-of-Kyiv-was-the-most-decisive-battle-but-Bakhmut-may-be-just-as-important While I am typing, I may as well share something I've been thinking about. I think there's actually a lot of comparisons b/w UKR & Vietnam wars, politically. Both were wars of choice that were initially sold as a modest operation but massively escalated and later sold as existential (stop commies in VN instead of San Fran!). Both were undertaken for political reasons -- wars of choice. Both wars continued because the highest level leaders felt they'd lose face and would be ruined w/o some kind of victory, despite the ruinous cost to the country of continuing. Both are wars where one side could simply choose to walk away from a foreign land.

Short video of UKR soldier in trench fighting first w grenade launcher then w rifle. Interestingly he seems adept at firing both right & left handed -- is that normal in training nowadays or is he just special?

I think no matter what happens there will be a pervasive 'stabbed in the back' mythology that most russians will believe. They were sabotaged by NATO, gays, intellectuals, the underground satanist movement, etc, whatever each idiot picks & chooses from what I am sure will be a long list. The bigger the loss, the bigger the conspiracy to explain it. They won't go from thinking RU is a world power to realizing their world view is a great big lie. Some will, but most won't. The funny thing is that there is actually a conspiracy to defeat RU in Ukraine. The actual one which is NATO, EU, US all working to stop this terrorist nation.

Crimea independent. Interesting. They don't even have their own water. They can't grow much food. They have no oil. No one w any valuable skills would want live there. Gonna be a real economic powerhouse. I am w Milley on 2023 likely outcomes. Land liberation of Crimea is really problematic, same w breakaway Donbas. I am hoping for returning to 2022 borders & RU military collapse such that RU is not a threat for many years. The dream for me is regime collapse where various RU republics spin off. RU becomes a bigger NKorea but with no oil. Well, a fella can dream, can't he?