danfrodo

I am guessing the red helmet guy has the honor of going & directly inspecting the impact area?

JonS, this is so ridiculously and demonstrably wrong. I can go on the internet right now and find hundreds of examples where a difficult and complex problem is easily solved by "this one simple trick". QED! Debate won! Woo woo! that'll show all you people who are educated on subjects and actually know things! HA HA HA I WIN! (legal disclaimer: this is sarcasm) But seriously, excellent discussions here. I was out after yesterday morning & had ~5 pages to get thru, y'all were quite prolific and good (one notable exception). Meanwhile, Bakhmut falls. Which may be the stupidest victory in history. I am still of the belief that Wagner needed to win here because of contractual obligations -- meaning Putin gave Wagner financial incentives for Bakhmut many months ago, before knowing the cost, but kept it going because he needed the propaganda. Well, congratulations to all. Your reward is coming soon. Seems the new longer range precision weapons are taking corrosion to a lovely new level. Airfields & logistics & HQs that were out of range are now being hit regularly. I was chomping at the bit for months for the ground to dry but now I am quite content to wait and let corrosion work its magic before the big show. In the meantime, attack weakened, exhausted RU positions and cause consternation in RU troops & command. Move some fancy NATO-supplied units to some rear of some section of the front, let it 'leak' out to the world. Then remove it a week or two later to some other place. Really F with 'em while the missiles take out the backbone.

My vote for post of the day. The overriding theme in all the negotiation points above is that RU w Putin will always be working in bad faith, both externally and internally, waiting for the day to get revenge & 'lost' power.

Sounds like Zelensky killing it on the world stage. Paywall, sorry. What if he can get more countries to move into the plus column for UKR? Not all countries would give aid but it would at least get them out of countries that turning a blind or neutral eye to Putin's murderous agressions. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/20/us/politics/zelensky-g7-japan.html

Bakhmut: I can't wait until we get panicked RU radio intercepts saying "where's arty support?!!! We're being overrun!" Folks here on the forum will know the arty support was spent leveling the Bakhmut back in April & May. And we'll rejoice. This is like some computer wargame where player hopes by grabbing one mid objective they can squeeze out a draw, no matter the cost. The combat video above from AKD is amazing. Smoke, haze in the May morning sunshine and a javelin leaps out from a trench to snatch its prey. Biden et al seemed to have decided that they wanted to control the escalation pace, I guess. Drove me out of my mind. Let's all reflect on the probability that President Option B would've also sent lots of aid -- except to the other side. And if so the war would definitely be over by now, wouldn't it? Tankies would be rejoicing. That would've been a fun May 9 parade, w US president on the raised stage smiling & glad handing Putin the mass murderer and NATO in shambles, w Baltic states next on the list. I do understand the escalation optics of having US F16s shooting down RU jets and hitting RU targets, all caught on some RU gopro. But the F16s, tanks, etc should've been starting into the pipeline last summer all the same.

I don't have time to watch the combat video included here, but I don't think it's one that's been shared. Summary for today from my usual cronies: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/19/2170144/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-s-Bakhmut-collapse-bodes-ill-for-its-future-defenses Says that some of the 'mobile' reserves being sent to bahkmut flanks were a unit basically destroyed in recent fighting and only 6 weeks off the line. Which bodes well if that's what RU has for mobile reserves.

If things shake out the way we think things are going, this could go down in military history as the single stupidest-while-totally-predictable defeats in the history of warfare. We're all watching for months saying "how can Putin be so stupid as to burn up so much men & material over nothing when he needs to man hundreds of kms of trench when the ground dries?". Yet even now, knowing UKR has at least 9 fresh & well equipped brigages ready, he still is doing the stupidest thing he possibly could? It is just mind boggling. All winter I've been wondering about RU mobiks and the state they'll be in after months in the line. Demoralized, terrified, poorly fed, cold, sick, no rotations, uncaring system. These are supposed to stop what's coming? Yeah, there's lots of good RU units, but why attack those when there's so many bad ones to choose from.

Just when I was hoping for some confirmation bias on UKR gains. Nice . This is shaping up very nicely so far. UKR making advances and causing panic w/o even engaging it's reserve-offensive forces. I wonder if, many months ago, Putin promised Prig a big cash prize or some other lucrative deal if he captured Bakhmut. And so Prig needs those last few buildings to get his payout. Of course, his real payout might be something more permanent than cash. But we'll see.

Back to Putin's serial mass murder escapade in UKR. Here's a summary for today. Not a lot new but collects Prig's recent string of hit songs in one place while also bringing in a little context for how messed up kremlin politics must be for this to be happening. Also has today's wagner map that claims the southern bakhmut horn is completely sheared off. Hopefully tomorrow this will be confirmed. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/18/2170032/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-appears-as-fragile-as-a-Faberge-Egg

ah, yes, them there fellers. Stalin liked science to meet his pre-conceived ideas. Unlike today, where the authoritarian-minded live in an evidence-based reality. As Steve said earlier, jewish space lasers are the only possible explanation for wildfires, for example. Yet w/o brave truth tellers we wouldn't have known this undeniable, proven scientific fact that greatly impacts our world. And Putin denied covid's existence long before the rest of the world realized it was a hoax. Times sure have changed!

This is post of the day for sure. Brilliant analogy. Meanwhile SBurke bringing some comedy gold..... except this is probably actually real. What was that pseudo science feller that Stalin loved instead of evolution? Lamarke?

No, but I've had to watch some of this ****e and was kinda wishing I'd be murdered instead. (ye olde 'let the wrong person choose the movie' night). Then some idiot I used to work w would want to explain the plot to me, as if I would then see the light. Steve's making a point of a society self selecting people who are prone to certain personality traits. We know this has worked w dogs over time, and the famous fox study (ironically, conducted in RU). And as stated above, we've seen brutal, repressive societies suddenly change dramatically with not just the same genes but the same people! So kinda hard to figure this one out. Meanwhile, I am seeing reports that more territory being taken by UKR around Bakhmut while RU desperately trying to drive UKR out of the worthless ruins of the city.

This plays into my pet theory that UKR is quite content to do smaller stuff for May/June. Corrosion, local attacks, misdirection, cause RU to panic & overreact (send reserves & get them stuck somewhere). A FULL BRIGADE w LEO2s & CV90s!!!!!! Even TheCapt has gotta think that's a serious asset! Plus will look great in CMBS2. Great posts y'all, I fell behind and had 6 pages to parse so had to skim some of the fun nature vs nuture content. Now back to day job, dang it.

I hope UKR has a bunch of fake patriot batteries

I've been convinced for a while it's a campaign season not Wacht am Rhein. UKR getting stronger every day while at the same time degrading RU. And learning. And demoralizing RU forces as the rumor mill works its magic. Just the ~20km2 captured around Bakhmut has Prig and RU army at each others' throats. Good sign for the future. But at some point UKR has to take back a lot of land. UKR surely hopes to do this via unhinging RU forces whenever & wherever possible as opposed to set piece battles. Don't need to take a major city to cut supply lines coming from it, just need to cut the lines. That will mean relatively deep penetrations at some point.

I was thinking he'd pay off Belarus leadership enough that they'd declare country part of Russia, or they'd have some fake referendum. This would of course be incredibly stupid. But Putin needs a victory, and getting a swamp, errr, I mean country, as big as Belarus would be a victory.

I could picture Putin thinking "I need a victory... ah, I know! I'll annex Belarus! What could go wrong?" Seriously, is that out of the question for Putin given his history of recent incredibly bad choices and his desperation? Steve was mentioning how this makes no sense. Sure, it makes no sense -- which is why it makes sense, you see? This is why you in the west are always three steps behind Putin's cunning mind! Meanwhile, RU moving 'reserves' to stop UKR advances N & S of bakhmut. That's a bunch more troops that won't be easily moved later when reserves are really, really needed.

Was surprised to see the mix of nato IFVs w T55s, that's all.

Here's rundown of where the current western tanks & IFVs are going. Being put into mixed brigades it looks like. One unit pairing bradleys w the upgraded T55S tanks. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/28/2166439/-Quick-Explainer-Ukraine-s-strategy-of-mixed-force-tank-brigades what does it all mean? Where & how will these be used? So hard to say, but at least there's some extra punch for UKR, w more on the way. ~100 tanks ~ 200 IFVs aren't gonna win the war on their own, but are certainly better than not having those.

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A good day for UKR so far it seems. RU falling back a little and lots of wet pants for their trolls. I hope their nasty brutish mothers can get them washed so they don't run out of clean panties (basing this on videos of nasty, brutish RU mothers, which I know is unfair). Seems the Bakhmut attacks are at least a little bigger than local commanders operating opportunistically. I am thinking about what UKR is gaining so far: 1. some insight into how RU will respond to losing ground in local attacks 2. decreasing pressure on bakhmut forces and opening supply roads 3. Morale and political -- RU might never finish taking Bakhmut, after all the horrific losses for RU and the pain UKR has suffered there. I suspect in RU propaganda Bakhmut will disappear despite RU acting like they were taking Berlin. Hopefully lots of RU troops will hear of defeats and become more likely to run away or surrender. 4. Huge boost for UKR confidence as other troops see victories Good times for the moment. Of course, I am still terrified of all those ditches RU dug (kidding). Could run into some very tough RU units but there's got to be lots of very weak areas also.

I suggested this here a few months. Any look at the northern end of the front suggests this. I don't think this is 'the counteroffensive'. The ground is dry and the RU units are exhausted in many areas. Good time to kill russians. Hopefully, as suggested above, Putin panics and sends more & more to stabilize an unimportant part of the line. These small actions are teaching RU that no part of the line is safe, forcing them to spread their forces. Taking own the kerch bridge and facilities in Sevastopol would greatly hinder logistics in crimea and the landbridge, so using Storm Shadows for that seems like a good idea. I wonder what % of the landbridge supplies comes from the east vs the south? Good day of reports today, w little attacks in multiple places and RU bloggers already wetting their pants. I think they'll be running out of clean pairs of dry pants soon. Just got back from a 'pinning' ceremony for graduating nursing students at Montana State U. They first honored the three ROTC nurses, who will head for further training then be deployed. Occurred to me these three could be tending to wounded UKR soldiers in some NATO country before summer ends.

I was laughing at these at first, then realized they can still kill people. It's an armored cannon and has ammo, so it can be useful. I am still laughing at the fact that RU is so desperate that it's expending resources to get these running and shipped to UKR, plus finding ammo for it. Lot of frontage to cover and these, sadly, could help any little group that otherwise has no HE / AT support.

As my friend Sherlock once said, "the plot thickens". UKR making small attacks against depleted RU forces -- depleted thru unbelievable RU stupidity. Mixed messages from every level of UKR govt. More & more gear and trained units coming online. Infighting amongst the RU gangs around Bakhmut. If UKR can continue to weaken RU while getting stronger, why risk everything in May/June? Keep increasing the corrosion and then hit later. war porn? Maybe. Also something we've rarely seen-- tactical level fighting, which isn't just porn, it of great interest to those interest in that subject, like me and many of those on the forum and everyone that plays CM games. Do I like seeing people die & be maimed -- no. Do I like seeing those that would threaten not just UKR but countries beyond that getting knocked out of action -- yes. So, once again, the need to hold two conflicting concepts in one's head at once. Including this summary today. Not a lot we don't already know but there's a Downfall meme that is really really pointed and hilarious. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/10/2168549/-Ukraine-Update-Russian-military-teeters-on-the-brink-of-chaos-as-Ukrainian-forces-advance