danfrodo

I've been trying to keep reminding myself this is going to be a very, very hard slog for UKR. Trying not to get into wishful thinking and confirmation bias. But what if RU is a brittle as TheCapt thinks? What if Putin thinks he's got all these huge defensive that are actually just ditches? What if the corrosion has weakened RU more than Putin knows? Would the generals be lying to Putin to keep their nice jobs? Would Shoigu be lying? This is the story of the war so far, where decisions are made thinking RU actually has a competent army when the opposite is now known to be true.

So absurd. RU needs to attack the Baltics & Finland simultaneously. This is obvious to any RU patriot.

UKR has more gear promised, so it can probably replace losses except for the mine clearing vehicles. Interesting how obsessed everyone has been w this. What matters is the bigger picture: what are RU reserves doing? How much engaged, how much left? UKR making it clear that thinning the line anywhere is dangerous. There's also lots of worry about defensive lines. But we don't know what's actually in those trenches. I suspect they are mostly well defended, but we won't know until UKR gets there. It's a very, very long line and only has to fail in a couple areas for the whole thing to be unhinged.

There's 24 1-hour episodes just released by the World War Two in Realtime youtube channel. Indy Neidell and Spartacus Olsen do a great job. I've been watching their week-by-week WW2 videos religiously for a couple years now, even went back and watched all the ones I'd missed. The maps are great, they cover the whole world including war in China. Anyway, I am just getting started on these videos but excellent so far.

I think capturing the east-west rail line is probably one of the main objectives of this first phase. THe line that runs through Tokmak. Gonna be hard to sustain the RU defense for the whole campaign season w/o that line. Plus what Huba said -- the entire RU logistical backfield could be in HIMARS range soon.

If you think that's funny, you would've found Rush Limbaugh hilarious On the war: Lots of video of UKR troops having to dig out suicidal idiots out of holes, sometimes w losses. It's like Iwo Jima or Okinawa. At least these idiots won't be around in the next line of defense. But dangerous, slow, and tedious work for UKR. On the plus side, UKR troops are often seen re-arming with spoils from overrun trenches, meaning they can afford to spray tons of bullets without worrying about running out. I hope partisans and missiles can keep cutting the rail lines. And like someone mentioned, it would be great to target the repair crews -- we know their location once a line is cut.

The plot thickens noticeably today..... We'll see if this info holds up. Gains on the sourthern front. Kreminna possible next attack vector. Very very interesting.

I was wondering about this a while ago. Hit one end of line to draw RU forces there. Then bigger attack happens at other end of line, w RU forced to move reserves hundreds of kms. Except those reserves already engaged N of tokmak. And w Bakhmut under pressure, can't really take forces from there. Putin's head will really be spinning if Kharkiv attack is real. Bummer that RU could move forces away from Dnieper after the flood. Hopefully that's a very short term gain for a very long term loss.

I brought this up the other day. Why would RU do prisoner swap if they were just gonna imprison or kill them? Maybe penal battalion type punishment? THey do that w other RU soldiers. And maybe that's what RU soldiers are told: if you surrender you're as good as dead when you return.

Great point. UKR has greatly escalated but that doesn't mean we are seeing everything. Maybe just next level of corrosion against a brittle foe. Also maybe gets RU to commit mobile reserves that won't be available elsewhere along southern front. And in reference to trench video above: again we see RU soldiers crawling away instead of surrendering when trenches are now filled w UKR rifles. They are crawling away and getting shot like lame ducks on a pond. Unbelievable but we see it over & over. This does show why offensive operations are slow. RU soldiers need to be dug out like rats over & over.

RU fool in picture not gonna be smiling when he (probably) finds out the other columns have advanced and his team, who showed some skill, are outflanked and cut off.

For sure! Failures are great places to learn. Sometimes my team's simulations don't match test data. But if we put all the physics we all thought mattered, what is missing? Sometimes it's the test (my fave answer, of course, and just happened this week ). But it does get folks to start asking important questions about what is going on, usually leading to some deeper understanding. Or just lots of frustration, also common.

Again Ye blasphemes! Thou woudst make thine world zero-sum! Thou canst have both SHORAD and The Benevolent Creator's Most Beloved of All (meaning armored vehicles).

Yes, I agree, I am shocked also that this column got caught so flat-footed. I was not aiming comments at folks on this forum, who all know this can happen. It is disturbing, but it's (so far) just one data point, one column. Hopefully it's an anomaly.

OMG the entire RU army is running away!!!!!!! If losing those bradleys means defeat for UKR then surely this means defeat for RU. I try to live by extrapolating all anecdotes to cover an entire subject. But seriously, posts like this do help us to remember that RU taking losses also. UKR reporting 36 arty systems destroyed yesterday -- if that's true and it continues, then RU is doomed. W/o arty support these lines cannot possibly hold.

So clearly the losing of some vehicles is the end of world. Or it is not. Or maybe. The question is what is currently being gained by the men & equipment all over the various axes of attack. How much of RU arty stockpile has been used up and how much of it hit by CB? How much of RU strength was in the first lines of defense that have been breached? How's morale farther back? How much are the remaining lines mined & manned? How that helicopters are causing damage, will UKR be able to get more AD in the fight when & where it's needed? Now close are UKR forces to being able to unhinge sections of RU defenses w/o fighting for them -- meaning flanking RU forces such that they retreat on their own (as mentioned above by Steve). DAN/CA -- I was also thinking of EL Alamein for these operations. Knowing germans were in a world of scarcity, Monty (who I generally dislike) calculated that if he kept pushing they would break. Took 10 days + a major change in plan (moving mobile forces to the north end of line) but once broken the germans were disasterously unhinged. And what happens if UKR just reaches Tokmak -- the east-west rail line is thereby cut. Very very serious for RU forces to the west of there.

Just because one believes in UKR doesn't mean they are blind or think UKR are uber-menshen. THe evidence is on the side of UKR being militarily superior enough over RU to make very signicant gains this summer. To believe RU will stop them, especially at the front lines, is willfully ignoring all the evidence. Can UKR offensive stall, like so very many offensives do? Yes. I am wondering how RU lines will hold if arty support wains. RU wasted massive amounts of shells & gun tubes in Bakhmut, so how long can they keep up heavy fire along multiple attack axes? Indefinitely? -- maybe but seems unlikely. Plus UKR counterbattery is going to be hunting all of them at exactly the time when they need to be firing in support of defensive positions. Hopefully the guns that hit that UKR column were at least repaid.

I would just say that having more mobile protected firepower platforms is simply better than not having them. And they got a couple hundred Leos & AMX10s. The best ability is availability sometimes. There's units that would've had no armor w big guns in support that will now have them. I am just hoping UKR can get a breakthrough somewhere that will get the rats fleeing south instead of having to grind through for 2 weeks. Every UKR casualty is a horrible tragedy.

Gonna be interesting to see what the faithful do when UKR breaks through. They learned nothing from Kharkiv, from Kherson, from Bakhmut slaughterhouse. Yet they still believe. Kinda like the folks that showed up for some end of the world party in ~1840 in Illinois, like 30,000 of them. World didn't end. Charlatan-leader said "I forgot to count year 0, come back next year!". Many less came the next year. Sadly though, many kept coming back and then formed the basis of a couple of incredibly stupid american religions that shall go nameless here. True believers always find some copium, and often double down.

And really disgusting to see all the pants-wetting over UKR losing some vehicles, incl some nice new NATO ones. WTF do these people expect? And one mistake by one group in one field suddenly means all UKR army is incompetent? Geeeeeeez, some folks out there need to get a grip. The 'game' is just starting and we've got the much much better team.

Yes, in the same way Goebbels would want to freeze the conflict in spring of 1944, I suppose. Kinda late. If you want to freeze the conflict, you need to actually defeat UKR to the point where UKR has no choice but to cede land to end the war. Rather hard to see how RU pulls that off. But, of course, referendums would definitely stop UKR forces in their tracks.

wow, the plot thickens even more. I was thinking about corrosion & probing/opportunistic attacks like we've seen, but SOF or 'partisan' attacks in RU frontline-rear areas? Could a UKR fan ask for any more from his team here in just the beginning of the game? And, like Steve said above, UKR hasn't even employed its best new units. Plus the AMX10 is doin' some nice damage it sounds like. Those troops have much better firepower support due to these lovely machines. Just like I was hoping would happen. Meanwhile, RU is already down due to 'own goal' as civil war inside the military/paramilitary takes hold.

This is Zaporizhe front?

Attack N of Bakhmut, attacks in Vuledar area. Probably opportunistic using local forces, but we don't really know. And allegedly attacks on Zaporizhe front? On eve of DDay would be a nice touch. And Prig now holding regular RU army soldiers hostage and RU having to negotiate their release??? Negotiate? MOD now has to negotiate w Prig over hostages??? this is while UKR is attacking and making progress at multiple points in the front? It just gets better & better. Those betting against UKR in this are seeing the odds get more & more against them. Excellent post by Kinophile, just above here, on fatigue. 5 days? Gonna be an interesting week.

I advocated this some months ago. But now I don't. If UKR were going to do this, the last thing they would want is to conduct operations right in same area, alerting RU to the threat.