danfrodo

Today's confirmation bias: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/28/2183827/-Ukraine-Update-Russian-officer-at-the-front-explains-why-Ukraine-is-winning When I see all those RU defenses on a map, as points & lines, I still gotta wonder what is actually in those lines & whether they will fight. There's 8-10 weeks of good weather left, so UKR has plenty of time. They can pause and corrode more if they want once they find the going too tough in some sector.

I very much agree this is a possibility, and is the current situation. The other possibility is that RU has fewer & fewer soldiers available & willing & able to fight as situation deteriorates. The supply & command systems have been heavily degraded. While UKR is just now putting larger forces into the fight. We just don't know. You might be right but I hope not.

yeah, remember when some folks were completely freaking because RU was digging trenches? "OMG look at those defense line!!" Of course, they aren't defense lines unless they are actually defended. And if RU is taking heavy losses trying to hold every inch who is going to fall back to those lines? meanwhile, post earlier today mentioned a unit refusing to fight near Verbove -- This is what I hope to hear more! When RU soldiers turn their guns on the guys in the backline who are supposed to shoot those who retreat. When groups of armed & angry men retreat and count on their own firepower to keep them safe, betting they have better chance there than against UKR attacks. That's what I am hoping for. That kind of thing can spread.

Nice amount of RU losses reported above, allegedly 30 arty systems. That's huge. And it looks like UKR making some noise in the far west of the line toward Luhove, drawing in aggressive RU response which hopefully means RU losing men & material out in the open. A lot easier than digging them out of holes w grenades. And today, like every day, I ask "how brittle is RU???"

Going to be an interesting time if UKR starts to break thru in these two sectors. The RU troops in between might be sent to stop the two pushes, leaving center then relatively undefended. That's what happens when you burn up all your mobile reserves trying to hold every inch of ground and launching pointless offensives that can't change anything.

Hey all, just had a few minutes to go through the posts. Thanks for the great info to keep folks like me informed. Looks like UKR really pushing now. Spent 2 months attacking, shaping, more shaping more attacking, to get in best position possible. We've seen a huge amount of RU materiel go up in smoke, that has to help though might not be noticable the first few days. After that RU arty shortages, if real, might become more apparent. Also, RU wisely put lots of mechanized units up north plus a lot of arty -- Thanks Putin! Fingers crossed for the next week or two. Every UKR casualty is such a terrible tragedy, but hopefully they can cause RU collapse and end this damn war. Now, back to day job, dang it.

That is really great news. Much higher survival rate plus much less burden on the fighters, so less delay. I hope they are sending a lot of them.

Summary here for today, w a swipe at that WSJ article. At the end is a video I hadn't seen of RU soldiers refusing to surrender then flushed out by tank that was brought forward. They run across the field but video stops just as they come under fire from UKR troops from other side of field. UKR HQ watching via drone & directing things quips "well now we now that field isn't mined" https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/25/2183261/-Ukraine-Update-One-town-south-of-Bakhmut-is-liberated-and-another-is-almost-there

Maybe that's what Prig was actually promised -- Belarus. I first thought this as a joke, now I wonder...

Haiduk bringing the good stuff today. Thanks for all the excellent, informative posts!!

adding this bit on tankies, just in case you forgot how awful they are: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/24/2183098/-Ukraine-Update-Tankies-claim-to-want-peace-as-they-advocate-for-Putin-s-war-aims Includes latest tankie idiocy from RFK jr. Just a week after he said covid was engineered to be less deadly to chinese and jews. (yes, he actually said this, on the record). He's definitely someone we should go to for sound judgement, after all, he's the one that alerted us to this merging of these notorious super-villain groups.

RU has MLRS in heavy numbers here? They must either have a lot more than we thought or they feel confident about the south w/o these resources. Seems like this is serious and will actually drain some UKR reserves. Most unfortunate. But maybe RU will end up paying dearly for this distraction if forces in the south crack and there's not enough support to stop the breakthrough. I guess we just keep hoping.

Turns out UKR strategy was very sound -- caused huge losses in RU resources at relatively low cost (as callous as that sounds). So if now UKR is attacking in this same region, I am assuming the math is working for them.

Thanks for that Holoween. I always feel terrible for any Ukrainian casualty and good to know it looks like this crew was probably safe.

Thanks, but I understand why it was important to RU. I am confused as to why it matters to UKR, now. Yes, less entrenched and less mined, so easier. Yes, some propaganda win. I was just saying I would love to know the math that UKR is using to justify offensive operations around Bakhmut when it won't change the war on its own like landbridge would.

I'm still wondering what the cost-benefit looks like from UKR perspective for fighting around Bakhmut. Aint much there worth taking and at this point it doesn't have much morale or propaganda value, IMO. So I am assuming it's an operation where UKR believes it's destroying or at least fixing RU units for relatively low cost. Which also reminds about something else I am thinking about: if UKR is significantly reducing RU artillery then at some point UKR needs to attack in enough locations such that RU can't cover all those areas, leading to some local collapses/retreats. But when will UKR feel like it's time to do that?

Definitely. He just says whatever he thinks will fit the moment. Does it matter if it's crazy? No. Does it matter if it contradicts what he said yesterday? No. A tiny little bit of good news here. This feller says UKR making advance on the left bank toward Oleshky. Don't think it can amount to much but it at least made me feel good. I still have forlorn hope of UKR getting enough bridgehead to start raiding behind RU lines -- yeah, yeah, I know, very improbable.

I think need to also add that he said the deeper strike space is already covered (by storm shadow, et al, I suppose), so not having ATACAMS right now doesn't hinder anything. He's not saying that deep strike doesn't matter. Hopefully the allies are sending every mine clearing vehicle possible, much of it w/o fanfare.

Steve said: "But what if the same force attacks separately, but concurrently, in 1km wide frontages with 10km between them? This would no doubt stress out Russia's artillery and air, making it less likely they could clobber any one of them like they could if it was the only attack. To make things even more challenging, what if after the first wave goes into action a second wave a few hours later hits in between where the previous ones hit? Now you have two battalion sized forces engaged in combat, but no more than 1 company in one place at one time. " Followed by TheCapt: "These small scale nibblings are not designed to yield breakthroughs, they are designed to stress the RA system until a dispersed mass operation can be set in motion, which then may enable a more traditional mechanized breakout. Ukraine is doing extra steps because that is how the battle space works." This is what I love about the forum. After seeing some posts yesterday I started wondering why UKR isn't attacking multiple tree lines along some sector at the same time more often? I just wait overnight and I receive some pretty good answers. The answer seems to be that they could attack more heavily but they have learned they need to continue weakening RU beforehand. There's still nearly 3 months of good weather and ATACAMS plus other corrosive devices on the way plus more demining gear. On top of that UKR is probably training many troops for what actually exists on the southern front. Maybe UKR just can't break through and doesn't know how. Maybe they are actually being patient and smart, which they have generally been and seems likely. I suppose we might not know until the end of September which it really is.

I am still of the opinion that RU making a move toward Kharkiv is a great thing. UKR can counter this with economy of force & giving ground prudently, like they've done before, while RU bleeds resources. RU will not have the reserves it needs if UKR can break through in the south. Putin clearly seems to think the south can hold -- maybe he's right. but if not he's gonna have yet another really stupid defeat on his hands. I bet UKR is countering RU northern moves w TD & other non-elite units for the most part.

delete

Too bad UKR can't capture all these tourists and then hold them hostage to get back the kidnapped children. The thousands of kidnapped UKR children. (I wouldn't do this but dang I would want to)

Dang, about time someone provided me w some confirmation bias. But seriously, this is what (and most of you I suspect) have been wondering. I brought this up w my Normandy analogy yesterday. Once through that front line, what is behind it? I remember folks on the 'net freaking out some months ago because "OMG russia digging ditches!" without thinking about the fact that RU can't man all those trench lines. But can they man them enough? I am hoping it's thunder run time once through. There will be mines & roadblocks but hopefully not much more.

Dear Lord, please let the rail line & truck line both be cut. Thank you. Amen. How much of RU supplies cross that bridge I wonder? Most of the western half of the landbridge?? All of Crimea, obviously. Could be quite a game changer. If the rail is out, then cutting the rail lines out of Donetsk, even if for a day or two at a time, takes on a outsized significance.

For sure on this. Putin is never going to stop unless he is forced to stop by lack or ability to continue his conquests. He's definitely doing well on that front at least, wrecking his nation. Hopefully the very brainwashed RU populace will remove heads from their nether regions and realize this was their own fault. A country w vast fossil fuels should be raking in the cash whilst they can and building up their nation, not this idiotic nationaistic conquest nonsense.