danfrodo

well well well, someone at the front is not getting resupplied for a while.....

Whew, dodged a bullet, that was scary -- you know, that moment when it says "The_Capt quoted you....". I came out relatively unscathed. And set him up nicely to learn us some learnin'. I am not one who thinks F16s would really make things all that much better right now. But the ability to push those helos farther & farther away from front? That would pay off. And, of course, like TheCapt said, more boring engineering stuff. I jumped on the 'campaign season' bandwagon well before the offensives started, so I figured it would take a while. I just hate seeing UKR soldiers die.

I, for one, just vent sometimes about western support. Western support has been phenomenal overall, but for the counteroffensive it would've been really nice to have more long range precision destruction, like ATACAMS, cluster, etc. Sure, UKR has a lot of good stuff, but if one is trying to break thru deep defensives w minefields, they need all the corrosion they can get to lessen what is faced trying to breach & advance. The sooner UKR gets back its land, the sooner this war ends, so anything that can be done w respect to weapons should've been sent long ago. Yes, some things off the table, but there's a lot we've held back and it's hurting progress. On the bright side, we're seeing a lot of anecdotal info about RU formations & resources being severely, perhaps critically attritted. But is it enough? Time will tell.

The helos need to be destroyed on the ground. And the west has pissed around for so damn long on getting UKR enough long range weaponry that now UKR soldiers are dying entirely avoidable deaths. Goddammitt. Just infuriating. Just think what a strike by multiple long range cluster munitions would do to those choppers.

"that's disconcerting" In some circles being crazy is a feature not a bug. And being on RU payroll? How is that a problem for those same circles?

I suspect Bakhmut is an operation of opportunity that RU feels forced to respond to. RU can't afford to have a breakthrough that threatens supply lines in the rear. UKR will probably push as long as it makes sense from standpoint of attrition & fixing RU reserves.

Finally have something useful to contribute. Below has info on swedish-trained brigade (21st mech) being deployed around Bakhmut. Stridsvagen 122 (Leo2 ~A5-ish) + those very very very lovely CV90s w 40mm death dealing cannon. Why Bakhmut? Author believes it's because it's less well defended than some other areas and offers opportunity to threaten Donetsk area from the rear if that front breaks. Seems to also be attracting RU reserves -- but UKR reinforcing also, so not sure how the math works out there. Maybe good area to get the 21st Mech some battle experience? https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/1/2178584/-Ukraine-Update-Swedish-Brigade-deploys-to-Bakhmut-new-long-range-missiles-possible-for-Ukraine

Seems like RU has been given "not one step back" orders and are trying to hold everything, everywhere. To do this they are losing men & material that won't be able to fall back on the next line. And best of all they are committing reserves very early on in this fight. Bakhmut is a nice place where UKR is fixing RU forces at low cost. There's 3-4 months more in the campaigning season and RU is being corroded heavily while UKR can replace it's material losses and some of its losses in soldiers. While I really want the big breakthrough, I realize how UKR is playing a smarter, lower risk game than throwing all the dice right now. And there's corrosion at the political levels also following the clown coup failure.

Good news from the front, at least. Dnieper bridgehead intact and expanding, Rivnopil taken, and RU TV says Bakhmut will soon fall -- such irony. But the best news is UK assessment says RU has already deployed its reserves and has nothing left. Let's hope this is true, as it would mean a breakout could happen. The dang mines sound like hell on earth but even those are finite in depth. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/26/2177777/-Ukraine-update-While-Russia-falls-apart-Ukraine-makes-progress-on-the-frontlines

I was joking earlier when I suggested Shoigu & Gerasimov should make a move w MOD. It was just some happy wishful thinking. Too bad though, I think MOD would probably be quite happy to quit the war and go home and get stinking rich 'rebuilding' Russian military that was 'ruined by betrayer Putin'. So maybe Putin is backstabbing Prig? Good, idiot deserves it. If Prig gets angry & decides to take moscow now, I highly doubt Prig would get anywhere near the support he got the first time. And Putin would be more ready. He's sooooooo dead. And sounds like some good news from the front. RU moving up reserves while UKR continues grinding RU defenses down.

A major aspect of a coup is typically have some base of support and then if you have success more & more folks jump your winning side. It's ridiculous to think he needed everyone on board before he even started, else it's not a secret. It was clear a lot of powerful folks were on board, so what on earth happened? But it's not like Prig is some master strategist like his boss, Putler. Still, it's all very odd. I now am rooting for Shoigu & Gerasimov & MOD to attempt a coup. I bet they'd look to end the war ASAP and blame the failure on Putin betraying the armed forces from day 1. "bring the boys home! The great betrayer is dead!" would be my rallying call.

I am generally anti stake-burning, but for Putin & friends I would happily make exceptions. I wonder what UKR can do across the Dnieper? Seems really limited. But clearly RU was very worried about it. What can they actually achieve I wonder? How much force is around the area? How much could they move quickly? How much would this help the frontline? UKR being very very quiet over entire front, hard to know what's going on.

I would sure love to see the blowing of the damn backfire in a big way.

Maybe some of this is simple. Assume Prig wanted safety and wealth and enough power to keep safe & wealthy. He gets deal where his men are pardoned, he's going to be in Belarus, relatively safe (he thinks). But I bet the jewel in the center of the deal was big pile of money sent to a bank account in Switzerland. And when Prig's accountant assured him the money was there, then the deal was final. I'm just making this up but I bet buying off Prig/Wagnerites was big part of it. And he keeps enough militarized mob enforcers & equipment to keep himself safe & rich & in the merc business. Avoided the Sack of Moscow, 2023, chapter in future history books. But dang I really want Prig dead for not following through and possibly accidentally ending this war. The repercussions of this will hopefully turn an already brittle RU army in UKR even more brittle.

My vote: Prig is dead man walking. Just a matter or time, a short time. He will be poisoned or (allegedly) murdered by a disgruntled former employee or some such. And Wagner will have some new boss. Putin will become more insular, knowing the knives are out, and more factions will grow more powerful, until someone else makes a move. The power is there for the taking it seems. Not easy, but at least now everyone knows it's very possible. A few nasty losses in UKR should set things up nicely.

Was soooooo hoping for a well-laid ambush by Wagner on Kadyrov column. Dang it.

I am out of likes! Shoigu! Gerasimov! Send more likes! Hopefully this bizarre escapade in near term will cause supply shortages and devastate RU morale at the front, and at home. It also shows everyone that Putin is not omnipotent and omnipresent and that power is there for the taking. Knives out, Comrades!

LLF showing up just in time, like Gandalf. Well played, Sir. Good to see you back!

OMG OMG OMG RA surrenders this command center w/o a fight????????? WTH is going on here? Out of likes, some great comments & insights above.

Well, it'll probably soon be a great time for the free-russia forces to strike again. RA, FSB, et al, gonna be rather busy for a while

But what end game is there for Prig? Even if Putin decides he is forced to make a deal w Prig, Prig is dead first change Putin gets. So Prig needs Putin gone or else it's just a matter of time. This will never be forgiven. I am currently on the 'Prig is desperate' bandwagon and made whatever move he could. Of course, he's in this mess because of his own unbelievably stupid mouth. I expect we'll keep seeing pleas to soldiers to join him plus promises to bring them all home. Which is amusing because he also wants the traitors who lost Kherson dead, yet he's probably going to promise to lose everything. If I am Putin I am promising to wire money into the bank accounts of Wagernites if they turn on Prig. They are mercenaries, after all. Putin will, of course, renege as much as possible and just send them straight to the front in penal platoons. Dang this is fun! And hopfully thousands of Ukrainians are unharmed because some idiot got himself into a bind and then brings the whole war effort down with him.

But hopefully taking a whole lot of RU army with him

It will at least cause disruption that will help UKR, I would think. And maybe Prig somehow has some powerful co-conspirators in Moscow -- seems rather far-fetched but like TheCapt said, dictatorships all seems invulnerable until very suddenly not.

that's a first class observation, right there

ahhhhh, so maybe there is a plan. Go to Rostov, take all the army supplies there. Having gone on tirade a couple days ago about the war being a lie, maybe his next move will be to say to MOD troops "side w me and you can go home". That's gotta play well w the mobiks. There are no words for how happy I am right now. This is all quite lovely for UKR so far. And maybe, as stated by folks above, he has some co-consipirators in Moscow? But how does that all play out considering he's as far from Moscow as possible inside RU. Of course, Putin probably has tons of spies in wagner so gonna be interesting....