danfrodo

So how does so much precious resource into Luhansk fall into this theory? He maybe wants that N-S river line running down from Kupyansk? I am also of the mind that Putin is making military decisions for which he is ill-suited. I didn't mean stalling for time was stupid, it's the only choice. I meant going on offensive in Luhansk when (we think) he has a shortage of military resources. Indeed, 10 long bloody, nasty days then a complete german collapse.

Ah, Sburke, you just gave good reasons why my proposed RU plan won't work, and I agree. I was asking "what does RU think it's doing?" not "will it work?". Hopefully Girkin is correct and the south is in trouble while RU has committed huge forces in Luhansk. That would go down as yet another of the stupidest things in military history, of which Putin has many in the top 100 list already. I am hoping what we're seeing in the south is analogous to Normandy, where once broken at the front there's nothing in the rear. 2nd El Alamein is another analogy but that seems less apt.

Putting myself if RU shoes, what is Putin up to? I think RU is trying to run out the clock -- meaning get to the wet season w/o a devastating UKR breakthrough. It doesn't matter how many RU troops are killed because can make more soldiers over the fall & winter to refill the trenches. RU seems to be gambling that they can threaten toward Kupyansk-Kharkiv strongly enough to pull in enough UKR reserves for long enough to weaken the southern offensive such that time just runs out and the mud comes. UKR, I suspect, will do like in Bakhmut. Use economy of force, give ground and bring reinforcements as necessary, and grind down the RU forces at relatively low cost (no cost is 'low' of course if you are a casualty). I think UKR would happily trade a little ground in Luhansk (for now) for retaking the landbridge. UKR still has the river line behind it. Plus around Kremmina it's just all woods, not a big strategic or operational loss. In summary, RU is looking like it's taking a gamble of burning up its mechanized reserve forces to keep UKR from launching full offensive in the south. RU is betting the minefields and 'garrison' troops in the trenches will be able to hold out for 3 more months as long as UKR is pouring forces into the north. Interesting strategy, if true. Could have all those RU forces as reserves in the south and get the same effect, one would think?? This seems like a really stupid strategy, but look at how incredibly stupid the Bakhmut campaign was. So clearly RU command is capable of really stupid things. Maybe Putin thinks he can retake Kharkiv because UKR busy in the south? Is that what this is??

Well said. For the record, I do not watch kitten videos on youtube. It was just an example of fervently zealous behavior of the benign type. I do watch a lot of guitar, Ukraine, & sports videos however. Oh, and CM and tanks. Speaking of Ukraine, we've got this weird dichotomy of RU troops saying they are unsupplied while at the same time UKR keeps capturing trench, dugouts, & basements packed full of yummy ordnance & weapons. I guess it means that there's a wide range of quality at the front for RU, both in soldiers & logistics.

I'd say fervent, zealous nationalism, or any other form of zealotry that separates b/w 'us & them' is just another form of religion. One can be fervent and zealous in many good things, like kitten videos on youtube, without the destructive side, of course, but nationalism has been shown by history to have a very, very dark side, often. Am I a US nationalist -- Yes! 'specially the sports & chicken wings aspects of USA. And I like that zany constitution we sorta follow when it's convenient (generally we're getting better at this, I think, overall). But do I think we are better than everyone else? No. Do I think we need to rule over others? No. Though it's nice when they buy our stuff, for sure.

These anecdotal stories seem to suggest some very brittle sections of the RU defenses. I'm certainly hoping it's pervasive and not just a few local spots. Here's another update, w battlefield maps. RU moves on Kupyansk front so far yielding nothing useful. UKR making progress around Bakhmut but not much in the south. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/14/2181173/-Ukraine-Update-There-s-a-rich-harvest-of-Russian-propaganda-across-Ukraine

Nice summary below of current situation on the front, a lot of info (ISW, etc) collected in one place. What I liked best was UKR claiming 23 arty & 4 MLRS systems destroyed, plus 510 personnel. Hopefully these numbers are accurate. I am thinking the loss of arty systems is important but the arty crews are maybe more important, so also hoping the crews were also lost. That's a skilled job, as TheCapt mentioned yesterday (I think) about how having lots of tubes (allegedly) is only one piece of the puzzle. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/13/2180898/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-506-counteroffensive-gains-in-3-sectors

Professional grade humor, there. I gotta get me one. Meanwhile, BillBinDC knocks it out of the park (in baseball this is a good thing, btw) with this very interesting and insightful way of thinking about RU national power dynamics.

Hey Aragorn! Hopefully he didn't do too much damage. He's had outbursts like this before. The pressure is probably a big factor in his words. Zelensky has watched as NATO 'escalatory' aid increases have kept UKR from damaging RU as much as would have been possible w more aid, earlier. Imagine the stress he is under! Not that NATO et al haven't been generous, but they have sometimes pissed around too long on things that ended up being delivered anyway. 3-4 months left in the campaign season -- why are we just be giving ATACAMS now?? Why not to help start the offensive season?? It's is sooooo much in interest of the world to have Putin lose so we need stop slow walking important weapons systems.

Good discussion today, thanks all. PanzerMartin made a relatively valid point and the other folks reminded him of the very aggressive moves RU made outside of the two big historical RU 'counter' moves into 'western' europe. I don't think y'all need to argue, everyone made interesting points it seemed to me. So no news from the front it seems? RU situation around Bakhmut deteriorating. I am happy about this but it doesn't get us a lot closer to ending the war the way the land bridge attacks could. I know the Bakhmut fight is drawing in RU reserves at least. And of course there's talk of big RU push on Kupyansk front. Hopefully that just leads to lots of RU losses for nothing, but will force UKR to commit precious artillery to that area. UKR troops grinding through treeline after treeline, it's like bocage fight. I keep wanting to get news of more platoon & company level RU breakdowns. Maybe this week we'll start seeing more cracks. Well, I've got the week off & there's some other russians that need a good solid whuppin', circa 1944. Unfortunately they have plans made by GeorgeMC, not Putin, so it's a tough fight.

And here we get to the $million question: just how brittle is RU army? Of course some of the army is good. But how much of the southern front is brittle??? RU keeps losing supplies, commanders and entire command units, but it also keeps hanging on.

I've started watching this channel. Nice detail on local battles.

Retreating invites defeatism! (sarcasm) It does seem that Putler has taken on the hitler mantra of holding every inch of ground, no matter how stupid. And also taking on the stalin mantra of attacking, endlessly, no matter how stupid. So he's basically two 'great' men in one. And now how long before the there's a significant crack in the dyke? By significant I mean UKR advance of 6-10km in a day, causing panic and hopefully poorly thought out responses by RU. I can picture mobile reserves being yanked from one area to some other one without much thought about the actual consequences.

I get what you are saying, JonS. But my point wasn't 'bad people are being bad' it was about the physical reality that UKR is already littered w mines for hundreds of kms. Cluster munitions could add to that, but it's a small % of what's already there. If there were no mines right now, then the cluster munitions would be 100% of the problem.

Well said, Flibby. I am torn on this but I keep thinking about the pro/con of shortening the war vs the negatives of cluster munitions and I keep coming up w shortening the war on top. Totally up to debate, and I won't criticize anyone that says this is a step too far. I don't like these weapons but fear more what happens if UKR fails.

Finally getting some reports that feel good. Like RU unit refusing to stand, UKR able to advance in some areas. I understand that it's not about how much terrain since it's more about corrosion, but the fact that UKR can advance is a good sign that corrosion is working. Hopefully tomorrow's news is even better. Also pleased that RU is attacking in Kremminna area -- horrible of course for those holding them back, but RU mechanized losses & ammo spend will be assets that Putin won't have when a crisis comes.

Any idea how many? UKR increasing tubes while RU going downward -- oh, wait, they have T55 guns on the way!

Cluster munitions are terrible. And UKR needs them. These are contradictions and are both true. What else can ya say? RU is causing way more deaths every week than errant cluster munitions will over the entire future. And like has been pointed out here already, RU is sowing the entire front, hundreds of kms, w thousands and thousands of mines yet not a peep from anyone. Meanwhile, I suspect NATO & UKR are doing everything they can to find ways to overcome mines. HOpefully there's a lot of gear being sent that we're not hearing about.

Thanks Steve. That is pretty much all I could come up with, was just wondering if I was missing something bigger. Sure would like to see 'Girkin & The Patriots' band turn up the volume and undercut Putin some more.

c'mon, Sburke, gimmee a little credit -- I'm dumb but I aint that dumb - well, ok, close to that dumb but not quite there. I totally get the propaganda points for taking Bakhmut, that's obvious to everyone here. I am interested in what operational or other rewards there might be. Right now I am just seeing the attrition reward since RU feels compelled to hold every inch, especially inches of ground w such propaganda significance. But is there something else we're missing?

And I was thinking UKR was doomed because lost ~6 brads. Oh, wait, I guess not. We haven't seen any strykers yet in action, have we? I saw where AMX10s were being criticized for low armor but I always thought of AMX10s as simply a stryker-type vehicle w a big gun, so I am not understanding why folks are criticizing it for not being a tank. If UKR can get a good breakthough somewhere it will have some really good mobile forces for exploitation. Meanwhile, we hear of progress in Bakhmut. Other than attrition does anyone see any kind of operational level success that can be had in the Bakhmut region? Maybe cut off some RU troops, which is more attrition, of course, but what can really happen in that sector that would change things in a big way?

Of course the air force guy goes star wars over nice, proper, land-based LOTR

Exactly like hoping the goblin king can overthrow Sauron. Probably better off since would start dark side civil war, but ya never know.

I'd like UKR to stay on the doom & gloom just to make RU reinforce whatever bad choices it's making. Bad PR w the west but that won't matter for long if UKR is confident RU is on the ropes.

While I am well behind the leader in this field, DanCA, I do my best to throw the occasional temper tantrum over UKR aid being caught up in bureaucracy. But thanks for your recognition of my efforts in this area.