danfrodo

I don't understand -- what is believed to have been missed that was something important?

I'm hoping this is true. this is the kind of thing that could be a game-changer. Having defenders in some sector attacked and knowing they were forced to retreat is something a commander can work with a lot better than having a sector defense just disappear and maybe not even knowing it until UKR has infantry occupying it. Could really unhinge things. Let's hope it's true & hope for more. Lack of food is VERY promising. You can get by being short on ammo if you're not under heavy pressure and you've got arty/mortar support. but no one can get by w/o food even if not under pressure.

I can picture Putler being shown pictures of ditches and thinking it's some amazing defensive works and handing out kudos & promotions & bonuses to the enterprising commander that made it happen. In some places it's certainly been very real defensive works, but that doesn't mean it's true back there. Like you said, if those secondary lines are so great why are the reserves being sent in so far forward? Or, like Elvis says, "if plan B were better than plan A, it would've been plan A". Plan B in this case is the ditches. Maybe I'll be proved wrong, but I am thinking those ditches are not as strong as some think they are. I am also interested in what UKR does if RU throws everything into stopping the Robotyne advance by pulling from other sectors. Does UKR have the strength to push in some other, weakened sector?

Good look here today at UKR forces allocation & an opinion on what UKR was up to in its Bakhmut offensive operations. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/26/2189702/-Ukraine-Update-If-Bakhmut-was-a-Ukrainian-trap-it-may-have-served-its-purpose

there's a big tactical game changer we saw last winter -- no foliage cover, which cuts both ways. Plus if RU logistics in the center landbridge get throttled, it's gonna be a long miserable cold hungry winter w no relief for those RU troops, hopefully leading to less resistance. and yes, I am moving the goalposts from 'UKR gotta win this campaign season' to 'actually doesn't have to win it all right now but do need to set up conditions for fall corrosion campaign & winter offensive'

I dream of RU having an internal warlord civil war that goes for a couple years, leading to eastern provinces peeling off as independent states. I want russians to feel the kind of suffering they've put on other for the last 80 years (eastern europe & now ukraine). I want them to feel the consequences of their worldview. I want RU as a rump state w no oil. I want RU so busy with it's own mess it stops poisoning all the democracies w misinformation and paid propaganda. Unfortunately my fantasy would probably not come true in a good way, as the chaos would cross borders as you state. And there's the nukes. But dang, a fella can dream.

I am guessing a hefty paycut for these mercs. Putin will probably promise big money and then simply not follow once he doesn't need them anymore.

Literally laughed out loud at the end of that, thanks for sharing. And from the topo maps I've seen, it looks like UKR would be looking downhill toward Tokmak once they get the remainder of the heights in that area. I've lowered my expectations but also still optimistic. If UKR completely cuts Tokmak, that's a pretty darn good outcome of the summer campaign. The rasputitsa can still be spent doing corrosion all the way to the coast if UKR controls a wide line either side (or even one side) of Tokmak, as we've seen in maps here on the forum. Then I am hoping for some frozen ground this winter and UKR makes it the rest of the way to the coast.

I'm wondering how UKR is advancing at a faster pace than we've seen in 2 months if RU doesn't have some shortages, which is what Tatargami says is the case. This advance will be stopped cold if RU pulls enough resources from other sectors but then UKR has push into those weakened sectors or RU gets away with 'robbing peter to pay paul'.

Summary from here today. Thinks UKR making advances south of Robotyne all the way to novopropkivka, which has been reported here & elsewhere. But has a couple videos claimed to show destruction/retreat of RU armored column SOUTH of novopropkivka, meaning the town may be cut. Getting closer & closer to having Tokmak supply lines in artillery range. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/25/2189587/-Ukraine-Update-With-new-momentum-Ukraine-pushes-south-and-east-of-Robotyne

yeah, maybe it's actually a formidable defensive line in depth. Or maybe it's bunch of ditches w mobiks in some of the ditches. What it actually is is yet to be seen. So far it's been the vertically oriented tree lines that seem to be trouble, not these horizontal ditches. Kursk? Yeah, that's a good analogy. I think western half of Normandy is also good. El Alamein not a bad on either. I was hoping to wake to hear that rumors of UKR advance south of Robotyne were true, but so far no confirmation.

Absolutely awsome! thx!

it walks like a duck and talks like a duck. yeah, could be a tiny little guy in a duck suit but ..... No one knows or will ever know probably. The tankies are all saying it's CIA / NATO killed this great russian hero. Mind boggling insanity.

northern side of this town looks to be ~3km south of robotyne's south side. This is a much higher pace of advance than previously seen in this offensive. Very very interesting.

exactly, just pay them if you think they are a threat, it aint rocket science

Wagner volunteered to be defanged and chained to a tree. Now they think they can threaten to bite someone? Or am I reading this wrong? Thanks for the updates on the progress at the front in the actual war going on. Looks like RU resistance is decreasing and we're not seeing new reserve units at the pressure points. Good signs, hopefully we'll keep getting hopeful news. Also interesting posts about Bakhmut being considered waste of time by US military. I've kinda been on this side of it also, but maybe it drew in enough RU reserves to make it payoff.

but OMG there's ditches!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are doomed!!!!!!!!!!!! But seriously, this has been a pet peeve of mine for a while. Maps showing 'defense lines', which may be defense lines and also might just be...... ditches. Now we are starting to see evidence they are more ditch than defense w RU burning up its strength in front of these, uh, ditches.

I wonder how many men? UKR taking ~1:2 vehicle losses but I bet a lot less personnel losses. 75 tanks & 101 AFVs that won't be around later. Meanwhile, UKR has good supply of replacements coming. Great point, Twisk. 30km of advance would really make it hard for RU logistics. Hopefully UKR can get that before RU manages to mobilize the next batch of cannon fodder. I keep wondering if UKR is going to suddenly punch out toward Vasiliyska (or elsewhere), assuming RU is thinning out resources to stop UKR at Robotyne & Staromilsk(sp?) to the east.

Nice graphic, thanks for doing that. Now they just gotta get to tokmak. My sense of scale gets really confused in the landbridge sometimes, but it looks like Robotyne to Tokmak is only ~15mi / 25km (which is over ~2x the distance they've gotten so far, I think). And don't need to take tokmak, just cut it from the eastern side should be good enough. Need some RU units to crack, and soon.

excellent post. Clearly and succinctly pointing out what's driving us all so crazy -- why are these guys holding on? what are their tipping points if not what they've already endured?? And will there ever be a cascading series of tipping points that actually leads to enough RU breakdown to allow UKR to make a strategically significant advance.

such precision! Epic disaster. Advancing in strength in the morning sun, RU commander probably watching via drone thinking his plan is gonna win him a medal and a promotion. Then within seconds it's a bunch of scrap metal and dead guys. Survivors running away, hoping to get out before the cluster rounds hit them. Once again, RU spending it's mobile reserves wisely by trying to pointlessly take back terrain that really doesn't matter.

That is professional humor, thanks! You should post more often And if UKR had pushed harder we more casualties but still been stuck it would have read "UKR's seeming lack of concern for casualties...."

Yes, this is a terrible tragedy. All this money should've been flowing into the bank accounts of needy oligarchs and corrupt politicians, and is instead being lost in this war. Ohhhhhh, you mean the money should've helped regular people? Ha ha ha that's a good one, Comrade!

I remember some months ago I wrote here that I had stopped thinking of 'the counteroffensive' and instead in terms of the 'campaigning season'. We are still very much in the campaigning season, and UKR is campaigning, mostly via corrosion but with a few axes of attack. It's not made the territorial progress many of us had hoped and predicted, that does not make us blind-believing fools. There was good info to believe RU was more brittle than it has been so far. But there's still a lot of season left, probably 8 weeks or maybe 10. Let's be patient and not start either panicking or playing "I told you so" for a while yet. Right now I am not hopeful for a big breakthrough, but it is still in the cards. We simply do not know yet. None of us do. But we can talk about what evidence supports "can do" and what evidence supports "can't do" without getting all ego-involved. We are all speculating in the dark based on the evidence as it becomes available (or at least alleged evidence).

I think you are misunderstanding my point. Everyone keeps drawing lines based on ditches and assuming they are defenses. I was simply saying same thing as you -- they are just ditches unless mined & manned & observed & covered w artillery. Yet every time RU digs a ditch, it's a 'new defense line' according to most of the maps, yet we have no idea what it really is other than a ditch..