danfrodo

Professional grade humor, there. I gotta get me one. Meanwhile, BillBinDC knocks it out of the park (in baseball this is a good thing, btw) with this very interesting and insightful way of thinking about RU national power dynamics.

Hey Aragorn! Hopefully he didn't do too much damage. He's had outbursts like this before. The pressure is probably a big factor in his words. Zelensky has watched as NATO 'escalatory' aid increases have kept UKR from damaging RU as much as would have been possible w more aid, earlier. Imagine the stress he is under! Not that NATO et al haven't been generous, but they have sometimes pissed around too long on things that ended up being delivered anyway. 3-4 months left in the campaign season -- why are we just be giving ATACAMS now?? Why not to help start the offensive season?? It's is sooooo much in interest of the world to have Putin lose so we need stop slow walking important weapons systems.

Good discussion today, thanks all. PanzerMartin made a relatively valid point and the other folks reminded him of the very aggressive moves RU made outside of the two big historical RU 'counter' moves into 'western' europe. I don't think y'all need to argue, everyone made interesting points it seemed to me. So no news from the front it seems? RU situation around Bakhmut deteriorating. I am happy about this but it doesn't get us a lot closer to ending the war the way the land bridge attacks could. I know the Bakhmut fight is drawing in RU reserves at least. And of course there's talk of big RU push on Kupyansk front. Hopefully that just leads to lots of RU losses for nothing, but will force UKR to commit precious artillery to that area. UKR troops grinding through treeline after treeline, it's like bocage fight. I keep wanting to get news of more platoon & company level RU breakdowns. Maybe this week we'll start seeing more cracks. Well, I've got the week off & there's some other russians that need a good solid whuppin', circa 1944. Unfortunately they have plans made by GeorgeMC, not Putin, so it's a tough fight.

And here we get to the $million question: just how brittle is RU army? Of course some of the army is good. But how much of the southern front is brittle??? RU keeps losing supplies, commanders and entire command units, but it also keeps hanging on.

I've started watching this channel. Nice detail on local battles.

Retreating invites defeatism! (sarcasm) It does seem that Putler has taken on the hitler mantra of holding every inch of ground, no matter how stupid. And also taking on the stalin mantra of attacking, endlessly, no matter how stupid. So he's basically two 'great' men in one. And now how long before the there's a significant crack in the dyke? By significant I mean UKR advance of 6-10km in a day, causing panic and hopefully poorly thought out responses by RU. I can picture mobile reserves being yanked from one area to some other one without much thought about the actual consequences.

I get what you are saying, JonS. But my point wasn't 'bad people are being bad' it was about the physical reality that UKR is already littered w mines for hundreds of kms. Cluster munitions could add to that, but it's a small % of what's already there. If there were no mines right now, then the cluster munitions would be 100% of the problem.

Well said, Flibby. I am torn on this but I keep thinking about the pro/con of shortening the war vs the negatives of cluster munitions and I keep coming up w shortening the war on top. Totally up to debate, and I won't criticize anyone that says this is a step too far. I don't like these weapons but fear more what happens if UKR fails.

Finally getting some reports that feel good. Like RU unit refusing to stand, UKR able to advance in some areas. I understand that it's not about how much terrain since it's more about corrosion, but the fact that UKR can advance is a good sign that corrosion is working. Hopefully tomorrow's news is even better. Also pleased that RU is attacking in Kremminna area -- horrible of course for those holding them back, but RU mechanized losses & ammo spend will be assets that Putin won't have when a crisis comes.

Any idea how many? UKR increasing tubes while RU going downward -- oh, wait, they have T55 guns on the way!

Cluster munitions are terrible. And UKR needs them. These are contradictions and are both true. What else can ya say? RU is causing way more deaths every week than errant cluster munitions will over the entire future. And like has been pointed out here already, RU is sowing the entire front, hundreds of kms, w thousands and thousands of mines yet not a peep from anyone. Meanwhile, I suspect NATO & UKR are doing everything they can to find ways to overcome mines. HOpefully there's a lot of gear being sent that we're not hearing about.

Thanks Steve. That is pretty much all I could come up with, was just wondering if I was missing something bigger. Sure would like to see 'Girkin & The Patriots' band turn up the volume and undercut Putin some more.

c'mon, Sburke, gimmee a little credit -- I'm dumb but I aint that dumb - well, ok, close to that dumb but not quite there. I totally get the propaganda points for taking Bakhmut, that's obvious to everyone here. I am interested in what operational or other rewards there might be. Right now I am just seeing the attrition reward since RU feels compelled to hold every inch, especially inches of ground w such propaganda significance. But is there something else we're missing?

And I was thinking UKR was doomed because lost ~6 brads. Oh, wait, I guess not. We haven't seen any strykers yet in action, have we? I saw where AMX10s were being criticized for low armor but I always thought of AMX10s as simply a stryker-type vehicle w a big gun, so I am not understanding why folks are criticizing it for not being a tank. If UKR can get a good breakthough somewhere it will have some really good mobile forces for exploitation. Meanwhile, we hear of progress in Bakhmut. Other than attrition does anyone see any kind of operational level success that can be had in the Bakhmut region? Maybe cut off some RU troops, which is more attrition, of course, but what can really happen in that sector that would change things in a big way?

Of course the air force guy goes star wars over nice, proper, land-based LOTR

Exactly like hoping the goblin king can overthrow Sauron. Probably better off since would start dark side civil war, but ya never know.

I'd like UKR to stay on the doom & gloom just to make RU reinforce whatever bad choices it's making. Bad PR w the west but that won't matter for long if UKR is confident RU is on the ropes.

While I am well behind the leader in this field, DanCA, I do my best to throw the occasional temper tantrum over UKR aid being caught up in bureaucracy. But thanks for your recognition of my efforts in this area.

well well well, someone at the front is not getting resupplied for a while.....

Whew, dodged a bullet, that was scary -- you know, that moment when it says "The_Capt quoted you....". I came out relatively unscathed. And set him up nicely to learn us some learnin'. I am not one who thinks F16s would really make things all that much better right now. But the ability to push those helos farther & farther away from front? That would pay off. And, of course, like TheCapt said, more boring engineering stuff. I jumped on the 'campaign season' bandwagon well before the offensives started, so I figured it would take a while. I just hate seeing UKR soldiers die.

I, for one, just vent sometimes about western support. Western support has been phenomenal overall, but for the counteroffensive it would've been really nice to have more long range precision destruction, like ATACAMS, cluster, etc. Sure, UKR has a lot of good stuff, but if one is trying to break thru deep defensives w minefields, they need all the corrosion they can get to lessen what is faced trying to breach & advance. The sooner UKR gets back its land, the sooner this war ends, so anything that can be done w respect to weapons should've been sent long ago. Yes, some things off the table, but there's a lot we've held back and it's hurting progress. On the bright side, we're seeing a lot of anecdotal info about RU formations & resources being severely, perhaps critically attritted. But is it enough? Time will tell.

The helos need to be destroyed on the ground. And the west has pissed around for so damn long on getting UKR enough long range weaponry that now UKR soldiers are dying entirely avoidable deaths. Goddammitt. Just infuriating. Just think what a strike by multiple long range cluster munitions would do to those choppers.

"that's disconcerting" In some circles being crazy is a feature not a bug. And being on RU payroll? How is that a problem for those same circles?

I suspect Bakhmut is an operation of opportunity that RU feels forced to respond to. RU can't afford to have a breakthrough that threatens supply lines in the rear. UKR will probably push as long as it makes sense from standpoint of attrition & fixing RU reserves.

Finally have something useful to contribute. Below has info on swedish-trained brigade (21st mech) being deployed around Bakhmut. Stridsvagen 122 (Leo2 ~A5-ish) + those very very very lovely CV90s w 40mm death dealing cannon. Why Bakhmut? Author believes it's because it's less well defended than some other areas and offers opportunity to threaten Donetsk area from the rear if that front breaks. Seems to also be attracting RU reserves -- but UKR reinforcing also, so not sure how the math works out there. Maybe good area to get the 21st Mech some battle experience? https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/1/2178584/-Ukraine-Update-Swedish-Brigade-deploys-to-Bakhmut-new-long-range-missiles-possible-for-Ukraine