danfrodo

This is my great hope. Holes open up in RU line and maybe the command doesn't even know for a few hours. No communication so sends a couple guys to check it out and they go silent. Finally, hours later he learns the position is filled w UKR troops.

This is what we've been hoping for, that the RU defenses are increasingly weak. Those cluster munitions have to be quite a morale issue for RU. Risk of getting shreaded every time they are out of their ditches. I saw report today that UKR pushing again toward Vasylivka and also of advances around Urozhaine. My fear is that RU can rob from sections of the line to stop UKR at Robotyne. But UKR pressing in multiple areas should make that more difficult (I hope). KEVINKIN: I am assuming you just used your words poorly in that one phrase. So hopefully won't feel the need to get into debate w JonS and thereby derail the thread.

Great stuff Teufel. I've been wondering about night vision and how that might help UKR in the coming months. The leaves will be gone, losing cover for both attackers and defenders. The nights will become much longer. Both of these mean that thermal/night vision becomes an advantage. No foliage to hide under and lots of hours of very very scary darkness. Of course, RU has some night vision but not nearly as much. UKR will probably have enough to supply to infantry units that will work on infiltrating and eliminating RU strongpoints. Meanwhile the evidence mounts, as you showed in your post, that RU is having a lot of trouble plugging holes even in the most obvious crisis sector. I bet UKR high command was quietly pleased as RU burned up all it's mobile combat power & potential reserve forces in pointless attacks for the last 9 months.

The hilarious thing to me is that these rubes think Putin gives a flying F about them. "we need to report this to Putin, he would never stand for this!" uh huh.

I love this. Telling the suckers that 25 CAA is a reserve unit until Dec 1. Of course it is. "Don't worry comrade, you'll make a bunch of money to just train the rear for months, then be in reserve. War will soon be over due to our wonder weapons and you probably won't see any of it. What's that? Comrade, you know that Putin would never allow new soldiers to be sent to the front without months of training & preparation. He loves his soldiers, for he is the heart of the Motherland."

Looks like quite a battle Brille, lots of smoking wrecks.

Epic. Though I don't like seeing the russkies win one. And thanks for mentioning that we are all able to play CM and then also look at the UKR war thread. I'm currently in WW2 as the brits, taking a lovely town from the germans in Aug 44.

This is good news, thanks for sharing Teufel. I am still hoping for UKR to have some success toward Luhove. This would really stretch RU forces if they had to reinforce here also. And you bring news that there's advance south of Urozhaine. This is really great news. I don't like MRAPS hit by drones, though. Hopefully UKR's campaign of supply degradation will mean they don't have an endless supply of those drones on hand when needed. If UKR can get success w existing forces on other sectors while RU has to reinforce w/o reserves to hold those sectors then it seems something likely to break somewhere.

I think 'team rabotyno' is going to need a new name.

Interesting definition of reserves: depleted unit in one sector moved hundreds of kms to another, undersupplied sector and put right back into the line of the most active combat area on the whole front. Yes, that is what is usually meant by 'reserve'. Does seem to indicate the RU is running low on what one usually calls 'reserves'. The evidence builds that RU might be in trouble in the south. But w enough of these transfers they can probably stop UKR in this once area. But that leaves some other areas very weak, we hope.

no, but wait, DITCHES! THERE'S DITCHES!

I don't understand -- what is believed to have been missed that was something important?

I'm hoping this is true. this is the kind of thing that could be a game-changer. Having defenders in some sector attacked and knowing they were forced to retreat is something a commander can work with a lot better than having a sector defense just disappear and maybe not even knowing it until UKR has infantry occupying it. Could really unhinge things. Let's hope it's true & hope for more. Lack of food is VERY promising. You can get by being short on ammo if you're not under heavy pressure and you've got arty/mortar support. but no one can get by w/o food even if not under pressure.

I can picture Putler being shown pictures of ditches and thinking it's some amazing defensive works and handing out kudos & promotions & bonuses to the enterprising commander that made it happen. In some places it's certainly been very real defensive works, but that doesn't mean it's true back there. Like you said, if those secondary lines are so great why are the reserves being sent in so far forward? Or, like Elvis says, "if plan B were better than plan A, it would've been plan A". Plan B in this case is the ditches. Maybe I'll be proved wrong, but I am thinking those ditches are not as strong as some think they are. I am also interested in what UKR does if RU throws everything into stopping the Robotyne advance by pulling from other sectors. Does UKR have the strength to push in some other, weakened sector?

Good look here today at UKR forces allocation & an opinion on what UKR was up to in its Bakhmut offensive operations. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/26/2189702/-Ukraine-Update-If-Bakhmut-was-a-Ukrainian-trap-it-may-have-served-its-purpose

there's a big tactical game changer we saw last winter -- no foliage cover, which cuts both ways. Plus if RU logistics in the center landbridge get throttled, it's gonna be a long miserable cold hungry winter w no relief for those RU troops, hopefully leading to less resistance. and yes, I am moving the goalposts from 'UKR gotta win this campaign season' to 'actually doesn't have to win it all right now but do need to set up conditions for fall corrosion campaign & winter offensive'

I dream of RU having an internal warlord civil war that goes for a couple years, leading to eastern provinces peeling off as independent states. I want russians to feel the kind of suffering they've put on other for the last 80 years (eastern europe & now ukraine). I want them to feel the consequences of their worldview. I want RU as a rump state w no oil. I want RU so busy with it's own mess it stops poisoning all the democracies w misinformation and paid propaganda. Unfortunately my fantasy would probably not come true in a good way, as the chaos would cross borders as you state. And there's the nukes. But dang, a fella can dream.

I am guessing a hefty paycut for these mercs. Putin will probably promise big money and then simply not follow once he doesn't need them anymore.

Literally laughed out loud at the end of that, thanks for sharing. And from the topo maps I've seen, it looks like UKR would be looking downhill toward Tokmak once they get the remainder of the heights in that area. I've lowered my expectations but also still optimistic. If UKR completely cuts Tokmak, that's a pretty darn good outcome of the summer campaign. The rasputitsa can still be spent doing corrosion all the way to the coast if UKR controls a wide line either side (or even one side) of Tokmak, as we've seen in maps here on the forum. Then I am hoping for some frozen ground this winter and UKR makes it the rest of the way to the coast.

I'm wondering how UKR is advancing at a faster pace than we've seen in 2 months if RU doesn't have some shortages, which is what Tatargami says is the case. This advance will be stopped cold if RU pulls enough resources from other sectors but then UKR has push into those weakened sectors or RU gets away with 'robbing peter to pay paul'.

Summary from here today. Thinks UKR making advances south of Robotyne all the way to novopropkivka, which has been reported here & elsewhere. But has a couple videos claimed to show destruction/retreat of RU armored column SOUTH of novopropkivka, meaning the town may be cut. Getting closer & closer to having Tokmak supply lines in artillery range. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/25/2189587/-Ukraine-Update-With-new-momentum-Ukraine-pushes-south-and-east-of-Robotyne

yeah, maybe it's actually a formidable defensive line in depth. Or maybe it's bunch of ditches w mobiks in some of the ditches. What it actually is is yet to be seen. So far it's been the vertically oriented tree lines that seem to be trouble, not these horizontal ditches. Kursk? Yeah, that's a good analogy. I think western half of Normandy is also good. El Alamein not a bad on either. I was hoping to wake to hear that rumors of UKR advance south of Robotyne were true, but so far no confirmation.

Absolutely awsome! thx!

it walks like a duck and talks like a duck. yeah, could be a tiny little guy in a duck suit but ..... No one knows or will ever know probably. The tankies are all saying it's CIA / NATO killed this great russian hero. Mind boggling insanity.

northern side of this town looks to be ~3km south of robotyne's south side. This is a much higher pace of advance than previously seen in this offensive. Very very interesting.