danfrodo

Let's not get caught up in words like 'conservative' for what is happening. These people not anything like what conservative GOP was in the past. There are radical, insane people who have managed to take the US house hostage. These loonies are a minority of the country and a minority of the GOP and a minority of the house -- but they are a minority that managed to hold the GOP leadership hostage and now the country hostage on occasion. The rightwing media did such a good job brainwashing the f-kwits over the last few decades that now the lunatics are running the asylum. Just look at what these imbeciles believe. They live in a psychotic, anti-science, anti-reality fantasy land. But my point is that those that want to abandon UKR represent a minority of both US parties. They will not get to continue minority-tyranny for long. I bet most GOPers, while publicly praising Trump, are secretly wishing he'd die soon so some sanity can return. Then they can get back to serious work of making rich people richer, which is the actual mission of the GOP. These radicals in the house are having a grand old time trying to set fire to the republic, but it's very unlikely they will last. They will all most likely be in the dustbin of history after the 2024 elections. Most of them won't survive their primaries. They are nearly all from safely-GOP districts so their seats will probably remain GOP. And the non-crazy GOP politicians will be happy to see them (and Trump) gone -- they just can't say that in public. Because of the MAGA base. The dumbest f-wits america has ever seen. I am confused when I see, today, so many people peeing their pants over UKR aid, as if it's ending. This is just a speedbump on the road. The majority is with UKR, both with the public and the politicians.

back to the war. There's an interesting video here of an RU observation post precision hit by UKR. Also says RU building new rail lines in the south as backup in case they lose the ones running thru tokmak. I hope UKR gets within HIMARS or GMLRS range of that line. Folks keep pointing to the defenses around Tokmak. but don't need to take it, just need to cut the supply lines. Then everything has to come over the kerch bridge or by boat. And yet we hear from 'serious people' that UKR can never take back the landbridge. But how will RU hold it w seriously disrupted supply lines over the long, cold winter? https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/27/2195843/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-is-literally-retrenching-around-Tokmak

for reals, that was kevinkin?? I was thinking maybe I overreacted but now thinking maybe not. I think a lot of forum members would read that little article and be really tweaked. It was a disgusting example of concern-trolling. And he offered no plan for actual victory. Saying he wanted victory, then advocated cutting off UKR. It was like some drunken kevinkin post..... hey.... I wonder if he moonlights as a writer on that website...

David, I am confused about what you were trying to say here. I went to look at the article, but he doesn't actually say anything useful other than lamenting that helping UKR hurts the military capability of the US. WTF am I spending money if not for this war, right now. Then he has this howling pile of speculated bulls-t: Frankly stated, there is no likely viable path to a military victory for Ukraine. To continue supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes” is no strategy at all. It is merely continuing, month after month, to send gear, ammunition, and other combat support to Kyiv. Doing so may prevent an outright military defeat for Ukraine, but no matter how much support the U.S. and NATO provide, Kyiv’s troops will almost certainly never drive Russia from its territory. What such support will do, however, is keep the war going, at the cost of sometimes many hundreds of Ukrainian troops daily. Why is this true? Who says Kyiv can't defeat RU forces to the point of getting back the landbridge. And maybe Luhansk? he says this like he knows that to be true. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not, but right now RU looks to be getting weaker while UKR is getting stronger. Also, he says meaningless ****e like "need to win" -- WTF does he think everyone is trying to do? And he assumes we all want endless war just because we've been in long wars in the past. It's ridiculous. So we stop sending ammo & gear? WTF does this clown think will happen then? That Putin will sue for eternal peace?

That's an interesting opinion on what's going on. Except that we're spending nearly 800 BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR on our military. OMG we're going broke because we used ~5% of our already spent money to actually try to do something, militarily, that will help the world be a better place. What cumulative effect on our country?? This is just utter horses-t. If we had just stood by & let Putin win in UKR would he then decide to not try to poison all the world's democracies? Would he not use fossil fuels to extort europe every time he wanted to? This is tankie nonsense. We have mountains of gear gathering dust and that's a huge portion of what we've sent. And just because I am on a rant on this: How about we turn this around by saying "those that want to freeze the conflict haven't given any thought to the cumulative effect on the world of pulling Putin's *** out of the fire". Gawd this makes my blood boil.

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totally off topic, will stop here. I try to be hull down, just barely showing above terrain. and some sagger or T64 still picks them off. But sounds like it's a 'me' problem not an equipment problem since you are having success.

I meant modern tactical games. Drones aint no fun. Heck yes CMCW is fun! Except 1979 is tough as americans. I love M60s but they struggle against the soviet tanks. And those awful M113-TOW things -- Damn them, they never spot first and never hit anything. I'm in a battle 1979 battle right now and not doing well -- against the AI. That's embarrassing.

soooooo..... you are saying tactical war games can still be fun?

That's more like it! Armor rampaging through enemy backfield! That's what I want! And blasting away at some surprised lancet units would be particularly satisfying.

Some really good posts here lately. But this one tops the charts, thanks for sharing that. TheCapt's 'denial/anger..' post comes in 2nd. The main problem w drones is that they take all the fun out of tactical wargaming. And make obsolete my beloved tanks. So sad. So very sad. 'Breakthrough' according to ISW. This is good news but it shows how much we've moved the goal posts for the summer campaign. I admit I have moved my goalposts all the way back to 'cut the rail & road lines east of Tokmak along a broad enough front to deploy artillery along that line'. Then keep grinding away during the rasputitsa as much as possible, while hoping for a good solid freeze. I suspect a long freeze, like 4 weeks, is somewhat unlikely, so might be 10 days of frozen ground at a stretch, which would make operations sketchy as once you get going you are suddenly back in mud.

UKR update from one of my usual suspects. Calls it best week of the year for UKR. Lots of corrosion and making solid progress against RU west of Verbove. Also he reported claims by an RU guy saying bakhmut area losing 100-150 wounded per day. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/24/2195169/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-just-had-its-best-week-of-the-year and a couple interesting nuggets here https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/24/2195181/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-plus-Ukraine-launches-attacks-in-Kursk

If we need infantry we also need mobility for that infantry. Are you thinking future is more MRAPS & CV90/stryker -type vehicles? Something else? and for firepower it would be artillery & attack drones? Plus maybe some weapon the mobility platforms?

I never, ever get tired of watching RU assets w secondary explosions. Congrats to UKR on every hit and may RU collapse soon. Another artillery asset out of the game, some number of daily shells not flying toward UKR.

With autumn we'll be losing the leaf cover. I remember in the spring how much it mattered that it returned. So who does losing leaf cover favor? Attacker or defender? My first thought is that leaf cover favors the defender, so losing it favors the attacker. But attacker uses leaf cover to screen movement, so sometimes will hurt. Lots of artillery & vehicles will now be exposed and that favors the side w better eyes & better precision, so UKR I would think.

Sadly, as a tank aficionado, a lifelong tank cultist, this is probably true. I just don't see much to refute it. And once again, having said that, it means we need more proper CM warfare where armor matters, as god intended before the moral and spiritual degradations of the modern age.

Thanks Hapless and the others for providing some excellent info as per my question. I should just ask dumb questions to tee y'all up for easy answers So it sounds like there's immediate good things and also UKR is reducing RU ability to do other things later -- threaten ships, backup transport if bridge blown

I understand how land and sea CAN be linked. But I was asking more about HOW they are linked in this war. For instance, how does destroying RU sub help? Because it shot missiles? Because it was a threat to grain shipments? Both? Neither? Meanwhile, I keep waiting for my neighbor to be correct that this week is UKR 'breakthrough', whatever that might look like.

Dumb question of the day: how does degrading RU naval capabilities affect the war? Because these ships launch missiles at UKR? Because these ships would attack other shipping? To some here may seem dumb question, but seriously what does this achieve? I get how much fun this is to watch, but since it's a land war what does this do?

the whole concept of "all politicians are bad and therefore the same" is ridiculous. It's just cliche' masquerading as insight.

Steve above highlighted the ISW report saying UKR now has vehicles & armor behind some layers of RU's defense lines. I saw this last night and was quite excited and agree w Steve that 'maybe' cutting Tokmak is in play. One of my dog walk neighbors predicted that "UKR would breakthrough within a week". His prediction runs through Sept 24 so we'll find out is this guy was a prophet soon I guess. I find it particularly interesting that RU seems unable to completely stop UKR in this region despite denuding other fronts of resources. A very good sign.

I find it interesting that the same folks who think an attack by thousands of crazed zealots on the US capital was some trivial thing, now think the lack of dress code is the end of the world.

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This is one of my great hopes. That Putler is behaving like Hitler or early war Stalin.

just read that summary. Was great, until that story at the end. War criminal Putin regime must somehow be held accountable, it ever it is possible -- and I get that it very much might never be possible. Hopefully he'll at least get lamppost justice. UKR making some inroads. Hopefully the NKorean shells won't have enough barrels. Or maybe the quality will be horrific and these shells lead to even less barrels. Nice thing about that is it knocks out the crew also. Rains coming.....soon? 2 weeks? 4 weeks? 6 weeks? For now, Robotyne area looks warm, dry and sunny.