Tenses

A little bit stupid question but why are Shahed actually called drones? They function like just another cruise missile as far as I know, based on GPS and inertial guidance.

The mortar sound can be heard for a short period, but it is silent just before impact. It just gains speed during the fall.

Indeed.

A little bit stupid question but why are Shahed actually called drones? They function like just another cruise missile as far as I know, based on GPS and inertial guidance.

About shooting on firing range
On the screens the story of shooting from wounded soldier. Of course it's just a story, but I will not be surprised if the cause of conflict was that, described under.
In short, among mobilized in this unit there were some number of Muslims, citizens of Russia, and three of them - tajik, azerbaidzhanian and adygean have written reports that they reject to participate in the war. After this unit commnader, lt.colonel Andrey Lapin lined up soldiers and delivered a speech on the theme  "this is a Holy War". This caused some turmoil among Muslims - tajiks said "This is not Holy War for us, Holy War is Dzhihad only - the war with infidels". 
Lt.colonel Lapin answered "Then Allah is a coward if he doesn't allow to fight for that country, to which you swore the oath". This caused big rage among mobilized Muslims and even some officers-Muslims were shocked. Between Russians and Muslims short hustle started, but officers could calm down soldiers and as if conflict was extinguished. But most offended tajiks decided to revenge and since 1,5 hours, when their unit was sent to firing range shot out Russians, preliminary adviced Muslims to stand aside (thouigh several Muslims, like and author of this post were wounded). All shooters were not mobilized, but contractors. Lt.colonel Lapin was killed first of all. Two tajiks were killed by warrant officer, who issued bulltes. In the moment of shooting he was in facility with ammunition and had a pistol. So, he came out and killed two tajiks - sen.sergeant Bikzot, and Anushe (rank not mentioned), the third tajik jr. sergeant Amizonda (whos documents I posted above) was wounded, but managed to escape and still hasn't been found.
This soldier said the third number of losses - 32 only dead (including both shooters) and he doesn't know how much wounded exactly and said "two helicopters were needed to transport them to hospital"


   @sburke you can take into account lt.colonel Andrey Lapin, probably 138th MRB of 6th CAA, Westerm military district 

That would be too simple and inappropriate for Russia just to recognize these "republics" in existing limits. This would give Ukraine the opportunity just drop the ballast and hope for collapse of Russia in far future. But the goal of Putin was clearly pointed in his yesterday's address to nation. About recognition of LDNR he spoke less than 5 minutes at the end. All other time it was crazy manipulative and conspiracy flow about Ukrainin history with resume - Ukraine is artifical composition hostile to Russia, Ukraine is a threaten for Russia, Ukraine hasn't a right to exist like a state. His addres obviously was recorded for large-scale invasion explaination, but he decided to swallow own victim gradually like a boa. And he will start from Donbas, making formal case - recognition of LDNR in the limits of administrative boudaries. 
So, will be no fly zone, and the Eagles will not come. The West even can't decide what this was - invasion or incursion, either now time for "killing sanctions" or  need to wait, until Kyiv will be hummered by Russian missiles. Looks like we will fight one by one with hordes of Ivans. 
 

Given the situation in Venezuela (its oil infrastructure remains, in effect, crippled thanks to a lack of western and domestic investment), and the US's long term failure to solve the Iran situation, the only two major sources which could cover the oil gap would surely be either North America (US & Canada) or the Saudis. IDK how much surplus unused productions the Saudis are currently sitting on, if it would be enough to get Europe over the short term bump in prices. But IMO the Saudis would have a lot to gain by opening up the floodgates and keeping global prices relatively low. If not prices will rise. As I recall the biggest impediment to North American production is its locked up in shale deposits which are expensive to explore and establish, most oil companies wont do it unless oil is over a certain price per bbl. If the Saudis cant, then global prices will rise to the point where North American producers can turn a profit and stabilize the market. The only alternatives for the EU would either be to back down on a big oil sanction, or turn to another unsavory regime (say, Syria) for an easement. The EU has before been very skeptical of US sanctions on Iran, with the collapse of the JCPOA I could see some horse trading behind the scenes for the EU, "Sanctions on Russian oil or Iranian. Your choice." I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, but I bet that Iranian oil could pretty much replace Russian in Europe at not much different a cost. 
Regarding Russian strategy, I tend to agree with @CHEqTRO and others who say that Putin is now paying a MAJOR cost for just occupying two republics who were, in effect, already his. At the minimum I dont see how he can avoid pushing forward to securing their aspirational borders. Even then that would be a major price to pay for a cost that seems pretty heavy. Were there any rumblings that the breakaway republics might negotiate with Kiev or abandon Russia? If all this had happened in the course of a few weeks I think the calculus would be different, but now the US has had months to organize and denounce Putin. I dont think a limited invasion makes the US look like warmongers or weak, rather it would make Putin look like he backed down under western pressure. And I wonder if Ukraine is going to be so willing to retreat from its long established defenses to let the Russians have more territory. A war of positions would, IMO, be much more beneficial to them especially if the hammer of troops on the other borders never comes for the Anvil of the breakaway republics. Better than to fight for every hamlet and trench, where Ukrainian troops already know the positions and the ranges, then open up a war of movement with a bigger enemy. All thats to say I think the stage is set for a much bigger rumble coming up. Putin needs to make this into a win, the US needs to prove to the world this isn't Suez, and needs to prove to China that it will face the same punishment in a Taiwan crisis. 
Meanwhile the people on the streets of Kiev are the ones who suffer. 

This. I am no expert but just look at the size of the blast compared to the truck, which was engulfed. It is monstrous. I am for a truck bomb but if Steve says this is 500kg then I don't want to see how bigger warheads work...

Obviously it is extremely poor choices in what games to play that has utterly ruined the Russian military. 

There's some irony in "LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK" when its the con sites that are pushing the Kremlin propaganda.

If there is anyone with any degree of sanity in Russia left, then only warhead Putler will see is going to start 20cm from his forehead and will travel at supersonic speed through his brain.
Otherwise there is nothing what we can do apart from responding with full force to any nuclear escalation. There should be no discussion such as stepping back as this would mean the end of the World for 100%. If we fight back the chances are still high for this but there is some hope for happy ending.

This is actually quite common pyramid in Europe. Look at Italy, I think this is the "worst" one(in Europe). I guess that their unemployment problem will end too quickly for their liking.

Seriously as long as Western Europe will see Easterners as threat and not as equal partners, history will repeat itself.

This. It is a problem for the whole Europe and will blow it up if not stopped. And stopping it means giving a hand to your neighbor even if he acts strange and not in line with others. This breaks the chain reaction of distrust and builds mutual understanding.

I was just referred to this tweet by Madi Kapparov.
Based on my studies of history and years of residing and working in Moscow, St. Peterburg, Budapest, Belgrade, Prague, Warsaw, and Podgorica, and traveled extensively in that region of Central and Eastern Europe, but also in Russian Federation Far East (Tomsk) and Kazakhstan, I would agree with most of Madi’s points in his tweet:
Nazism is mainstream in Russia.
What is Nazism? Abstract away from the distractions of economics and markets. Nazism is a form of fascism founded on the delusional belief of one group of people, generally based on ethnicity, being superior to another group of people. 1/
So too the Russians, who have been absorbed by the culture of their ethnic exceptionalism and historic revisionism promoting their ethnic superiority in all aspects, think that they are more privileged than any other ethnicity or nation. 2/
The Russians think that no rules apply to them. They think that they can do whatever they please because they are exceptional.
When the USSR collapsed the new Russian government fought very hard to become a successor state to the Soviet Union. 3/
Much like the USSR became a successor state to the original Russian empire, the Russian federation had to become a successor state to the USSR. Ideologically it was critical to them to preserve imperial continuity of exceptionalism and cultural and historical superiority. 4/
Without the succession, Russia would have had become equal to the former colonies, such as Ukraine, Kazakhstan, etc. That was simply unacceptable to the Russians. They also maintained their centuries-long militarism, as it all feeds into their Russian exceptionalism worldview. 5/
In the 1990s Russia was in dire economic straights and it was completely irrational to maintain a huge military and a large nuclear arsenal. But it was culturally and ideologically of an absolute necessity to the Russians. Why? It is part of their exceptionalism beliefs. 6/
Long before Putin, the war in Transnistria happened. The Russians then had no doubt in the necessity to protect ethnic Russian "separatists" in Moldova, whom the empire moved there over the years. However, just a few years later they went to war with Chechen separatists. 7/
Transnistria was acceptable, while Chechen separatism, a liberation movement, was unacceptable to the Russians. The Russians apply no rules to themselves. You see, they think they are special, exceptional, and superior to the rest of the world. 8/
Chechen independence was absolutely repugnant to the Russians. Negotiations with the Chechens were absolutely unacceptable for an average Russian, until major military defeats and economic strains in 1996. The Russians returned in 1999 to put the "savages" in their place. 9/
Any suggestions for Chechen independence from abroad faced an aggressive push back from the Russians. It is all driven by Russian exceptionalism deeply rooted in their culture. 10/
For the Russians, the protectionism of their empire and their imperial ambitions come naturally. They are an organic part of their individual and national psyche. 11/
Over the years, I have witnessed countless times how aggressively the Russians react to any attempts at an independent foreign policy by the former colonies. Typically, such attempts are called "ungrateful." 12/
The Russians expect their former colonies to be grateful. Grateful for what? In their perverted and revised historical view, they did "so much" for the former colonies, they "civilized" them. 13/
When the former colonies do something independently from Russia, the Russians feel betrayed. “How could they? We did so much for them.” Such Russian behavior is axiomatic. They will hold a grudge and retaliate when an opportunity presents itself. 14/
The reality is that the Russians demand the former colonies to be grateful for the misery, death, destruction, starvation, and sometimes assimilation. Such is the Russian way to “civilize” the “savages.” 15/
The Russians also demand the rest of the world to be grateful to them for the victory over Nazi Germany. In their worldview it is the ethnic Russians *alone* who defeated German Nazism in 1945. “The Great Patriotic War” became one of the pillars of Russian exceptionalism. 16/
Anyone who questions the victory in WW2 the ethnic Russians appropriated will face self-righteous anger and a flurry of insults from them. However, it is unclear why the world should be grateful to them: the USSR was allied to Germany till the very first day of Barbarossa. 17/
Should I even mention the brutal Russian occupation of Eastern Europe following the end of WW2? The Russians expect gratitude for that too. The Russians demand gratitude from the world and from the former colonies, they are special, they are exceptional. 18/
2014 was a point of no return. That year centuries long Russian chauvinism regressed into Russian Nazism. I will ignore Crimea. Russia manufactured oppression of Russian speakers in the Donbas and invaded with “separatists.” That is just a few years after the Chechen Wars. 19/
Again, Russian “separatism” is acceptable, Chechen separatism is unacceptable, because rules do not apply to the Russians. They are exceptional. They allow themselves to do what is unimaginable to them if others do it. That is the essence of Russian Nazism. 20/
I think there are no “good” or “bad” Russians. The distinction is meaningless. There are however sheepishly obedient Russians and zealous z-supporters, averaging out into a regular Russian Nazi. 21/
Germany was zombified by Nazi propaganda for 12 years. The Russians were on their path to Nazism for decades if not centuries. There are no easy fixes. There will be no protests. Changes in the Russian government would solve nothing. The road ahead will be long and difficult. 22/
However Nazi Germany was defeated. So too will be the current version of the Russian empire. Their Nazi worldviews will have to be shattered. The sooner the world realizes it is everyone’s problem, the better.
Ukraine will win as they have no other choice. 23/23
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1574051110654189569.html

This is not realistic. The only possible way for the US (or if you will, US, UK, France) to do this is with ICBMs. Russia is BIG and their nuclear sites are geographically diversified. We (those 3) don't have a bunch of conventional warhead ICBMs, (not any, really) and it wouldn't matter anyway. They could not physically destroy Russia's nuclear capability using only conventional weapons, HOWEVER, Russia would not stand by and watch it happen. They, like us, would interpret a targeted attack on nuclear weapon infrastructure as an existential threat and would have to respond immediately, before our missiles landed, with a full nuclear attack on the west. There's no other optional response. We would do the same. Use it or lose it. There's no way to know that the incoming missiles on a trajectory to eliminate nuclear sites, are "only" conventional, and either way - it's an attack to eliminate a country's nuclear response capability.
Another wild card is that Russia has SSBNs out there too. Not as many, not quite as capable, but that's kind a moot point. Even ONE, is enough to cause catastrophic damage all across the US. Same as with ours. I'd not like to be the Admiral who has to guarantee that our SSNs could sink EVERY Russian boomer before they can fire. Our SSNs are good, but I kind of doubt that we have that guaranteed capability. I have no inside knowledge on that. I just design, build and test them.
Dave

Well I certainly haven't taken much activity in the forums but I follow this topic from the start and consider it the best info out there thanks to it's "background diversity" and outstanding military knowledge of your's guys.
Nevertheless I wanted to throw my two cents into more heated recent discussion. What I consider will happen if Russia is going to go nuclear depends on it's exact usage and this is confirmed by a couple of Western decision makers out there, that exact response "depends". I would bet on three scenarios in this regard:
1) Russia uses tactical warhead on some military gathering to stop offensive or get upper hand elsewhere. West(mainly US to be honest) responds with cruise missile/air force action on Ukriane territory, effectively deleting any stronger Russian presence there. This would be in line of previous actions, which were meant to even out odds or place Ukraine at slight adventage in comparison to Russia.
2) Russia uses strategic warhead on some big city(not really an option IMHO). Response is the same as before but on the entire Russian territory. Main targets are all nuclear capable military vehicles/structures. This might look like escalation but really, if you see a crazy guy killig a child just before your own eyes you don't think like "hey it's not my child, I don't even know it's parents", but instead you just beat the s**t out of him no matter what. This is what people do with crazy elements to keep the rest of society reasonably healthy.
3) Russia attacks nuclear any NATO member. Response to this is a mix of 2) with addition of own nuclear wherever necessary.
I understand that even considering this kind of events is very disturbing but we must admit that we were never that close to this situation. Not even Cuban crisis was that close. Preventing all of this is very easy - we need to be crystal clear in commitment to support Ukraine with whatever force is necessary. All the power Russia has is from "fear terror" and as long as it has any chance that it can do s**t without serious repercussions, it will not stop. 
Russia understands strenght. Period.