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Tenses

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  1. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is very sad but so true.
    In the meantime, does anyone predict what could be the moment Ukraine will be able to stabilise the front? Since Avdiivka fall, as seemed not important event, the pace of Russian push is only increasing. I know, there are a lot casualities on RU side and all this stuff but, if attacker takes ground it is much more different situation than we were used to before when stable defense was present across entire front.
    Also do we have any more info on more "frontline" drones for Ukraine, hopefully autonomous? We are seeing a massive waves of strategic drone(cruise missile) attacks on the back into RU oil industry and logistics but it seems that frontline stabilisation is now priority. Without drones on the frontline in sufficient numbers and quality, stopping the push is most likely impossible.
    Don't get me wrong, I am the last one to jump on the doom train, it is just quite evident that superior numbers from RU are now working better than before. Apart from artillery issues, which maybe will be resolved, drones are now main attrition dealer asset. With superior RU EW I don't see any other option than going at least semi autonomous as soon as possible.
  2. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It doesn't really matter, if politics played the role. It will and already is used politically in a worst possible, disgusting way. What is even worse, the most radical part of the ruling party is already proposing measures, which might mean oppresing opposition even more in light variant and civil war in heavy variant.
    Russia and its Useful Idiots are rarely the evil scheme plotting mastermind. But at the same time Russia definitly is the great opportunist, which can take out ridiculous amounts of value for its propaganda from random events like this one. 
  3. Upvote
    Tenses reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Possible if russians run out of steam in the short term, my guess to that is they wont.
    Whats flowing into the front right now wasn't stockpiled up, its the number of vehicles actively being restored and sent out in new units. What max help short term is the delivery of US shells, they are already having a visible effect in stopping assaults and covering tank columns quickly.
    The earliest *possible* long-term depleation of soviet storages are estimated to mid 2025 to late 2025, after that its down to production numbers and the front would slowly freeze as replacements become scarce like they do for the ZSU.
    This assumes china stays out of it and doesnt lend a hand to russia.
    As for countering the current mess, the units are more exhausted than they were at the beginning of Avdiivka, there are however 3? Light Brigades in forming. I dont know at what stage they are or if they have already been commited.
    There is also the plan to build 10 more brigades. Take note the commander of the ground forces states the issue is in heavy Equipment to outfit the units, not the manpower to fill them.
    They will be used exclusively to Guard Kyiv though, as the fear is russia will launch another major offensive there.
    About drones, Sternenko has a constant fundraiser, he started the 1 million drone Initiative: send.monobank.ua/jar/dzBdJ3737
    His Telegram with proof of deliveries and several dozen daily result videos: t.me/ssternenko
     
     
  4. Upvote
    Tenses reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, that would be smart, risky, and a step towards long-term victory over the new axis.
    Western governments are not interested in victory over the axis, they are interested in winning elections and gaining personal benefits, which means they are bound by human animalistic desires of themselves and of their electorate. That means minimizing risks and favoring short-term benefits with long-term disadvantages over long-term benefits with short-term disadvantages. That includes working shoulder to shoulder with the axis towards their own long-term defeat if necessary, both indirectly (by inaction) or directly (through trade).
    Dictatorships are incompetent and corrupt, but they are able to accept and relegate short-term disadvantages in pursuit of a long-term goal (how beneficial that long-term goal is? Very debatable. But it's a goal).
  5. Like
    Tenses got a reaction from alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Tearing it down" is what Russia and other autocracies active in "Western" Information space is advocating. This would destroy us all and they could feed on the chaos however they would see fit.
    Unfortunately USA is not alone with this issue, this is general democracies flaw. We either change the democracy itself and the executive law that follows after it or we will join autocracies, possibly the hard way. The "bad guys" knows very good that the system is flawed at the moment and they exactly know how to use it.  
  6. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Agreed, counter drone, which is reliable, cheap AND scalable would be a game changer. With that and Russian ISR removed, Ukraine could go back to late spring 2023 and smash Russians into the ground as soon as artillery ammo arrives.
    But currently I don't see that happening and as @LongLeftFlank mentioned Ukrainians, especially prepared and motivated, is not a resource which is infinite. I feel that something needs to change very fast to prevent further escalation of negative trend in force multiplier to give Ukraine a breath by properly training, equipping and rotating infantry. 
    Massive counter drone is a holy grail, but what can be done in the meantime? Holy grails usually take some time to find, you know...
     
  7. Like
    Tenses got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Agreed, counter drone, which is reliable, cheap AND scalable would be a game changer. With that and Russian ISR removed, Ukraine could go back to late spring 2023 and smash Russians into the ground as soon as artillery ammo arrives.
    But currently I don't see that happening and as @LongLeftFlank mentioned Ukrainians, especially prepared and motivated, is not a resource which is infinite. I feel that something needs to change very fast to prevent further escalation of negative trend in force multiplier to give Ukraine a breath by properly training, equipping and rotating infantry. 
    Massive counter drone is a holy grail, but what can be done in the meantime? Holy grails usually take some time to find, you know...
     
  8. Like
    Tenses reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I one hundred percent agree with Holien, a thousand casualties per DAY is not something the Russians can do forever, NOBODY can do that forever.
    The second thing the Russians can't do is fight this war without diesel and jet fuel. The Ukrainians need to push their campaign  against Russian oil refineries as hard as they possibly can, and then harder than that.
    The one thing I would add, is drone DEFENCE. If the Ukrainians could could suddenly start knocking Russian drones out the sky wholesale, the entire Russian system would come apart in a month. This works both ways of course, so NATO needs to be absolutely sure the Ukrainians get there first.
     
  9. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Taking a few steps back and looking at overall situation, what exactly do you think can really change the tide of this war? Beacuse even with these recent massive mechanized losses the pressure is pretty much the same and we know that when BMPs, BMDs and tanks will not be available, Ruzzians will just go on foot. We currently wait for(and Ukrainians die in the meantime):
    - ammunition to artillery/more artillery: This will provide support, which is badly needed, especially in defence, might actually stop most of the attacks but not for long due to penetration of Russian ISR up to and beyond artillery positions.
    - F16s : Just as above and might also have some impact on air defence. I don't see much usage in offence deep behind the frontline, definitly can provide good very close to the frontline air support. If will be properly used, with superior Ukraine ISR, can be hard to deal by Russian anti-air. The minus is that every mistake will be extremely costly and irreplacable(mainly the pilots, planes to the lesser degree).
    - air defence, anti tank weaponry replacements : this should assure keeping the quality of both of these on current, in my opinion, pretty high level
    Apart from these, which should come from the "West" exclusively we have the drone war, but is it possible to achieve quality+quantity=pressure of drone swarms to actually push back? I see that as currently the only option to do that but I am not sure, if gaining that high pressure is actually possible. It was analyzed here many times that using classical means for counteroffensive is generally death sentence.
    And if pushing back is not possible what are we looking at here? Either there is a plan to turn the tide or not, I would not count on Russia running out of something, even if it looks like it. It went for the ammo to North Korea, it went for drones to Iran, it produces a lot by itself, if real necessity arises I don't belive it won't get support from China in a meaningful way. And I think it is clear to everyone that China has no bottom, the current "Games of Hegemony" is exactly because of that.
    So, do we have a clear target here or just "wait and see"?
     
  10. Like
    Tenses reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Magyar" claims his unit, using EW system, managed to supress and land Russian "Lancet"
     
  11. Upvote
    Tenses reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Putin's invasion plans were formulated on Hunter Biden's laptop.  They were created while he and George Soros were vacationing at Jeffery Epstein's place at the same time that Hilary Clinton was discussing a marketing plan with Epstein to use a Pizza place as a front for child trafficking.  I seem to remember this was close to the same time Jewish Space lasers were lighting up California forests because we hadn't properly raked them like they do in Finland.  I remember all this because right about then I was sticking light bulbs up my anus to kill Covid.
    See it all makes sense now right?
  12. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from pintere in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I fear that currently any new artillery capabilities like new howitzers or finally getting enough ammo for them, will not be anywhere close to the impact it made last year. As currently Russia has ISR capabilities allowing it to target the artillery effectively, it won't be able to do counter battery and support missions as good as it could in the past. 
    The biggest indicators for this issue is HIMARS and Patriot being both hit recently. This would not be possible last year. From my perspective the priority has changed and now the wonder weapon is C-UAS capabilities on regional scale. If Ukraine will be able to successfully remove the enemy UAS, it will unlock all the other weapons to be effective enough to provide force multipler on a scale allowing for actual winning the war. All of the stuff, which is below air force is now locked by overwhelming ISR+drone/ballistics/whatever precision weapon you have. As winning by air force superiority is not an option, enemy drones needs to be beaten. Currently we have something like mutual destruction in regard to drone saturation and its effects on anything on the ground. With longer ranges, this drone dead zone extends far behind the frontline. Reliable, cheap, scalable and currently non-existent C-UAS technology needs to be implemented. Spending time and money on anything EW based is also waste of resources until it literally fries the insides of the drone. Looking at current developments, autonomous seems to be casual at the end of current year so lack of manual control due to EW will not be an issue. 
    When drones will be done, artillery and all the other fancy stuff will shine again. Ukraine can't afford to wage war on equal terms in regard of technology so there is no option to just produce more drones than Russia to overwhelm it. It needs to actually fight the enemy drones to achieve its own drone superiority and all the other forces just after that.
  13. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My friend had a master thesis on sound indentification of different types of vehicles and it was more than 10 years ago. You don't need AI for that, but it will certainly help, especially to quickly populate database with new types of targets.
    Generally systems like that is a great example of how much you can achieve with almost no material investment. If algorithms are there, you can cover entire country with such systems and get cheap and precise alternative of radar coverage. Every country should have something like that. In time additional network of thermal imagers and seismic sensors should also accompany the radar, which is not always available and is not easily replaced. For current system I would put as a priority different information transport medium as cell network is not reliable. Optical infrastructure is a life saver in war as it is the fastest and immune to all types of interferences.
    Next step is to put automatic HMGs on critical locations and you can start to sleep better at least in regard to danger presented by Shahed class drones. For something bigger(and faster - recent "Zircon") you need big stuff but it is even more important to achieve faster response times. I hope that at the end of this war Ukraine will have nearly impenetrable air defenses(for a sane size of attack) thanks to your own developments and innovations.  
  14. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My friend had a master thesis on sound indentification of different types of vehicles and it was more than 10 years ago. You don't need AI for that, but it will certainly help, especially to quickly populate database with new types of targets.
    Generally systems like that is a great example of how much you can achieve with almost no material investment. If algorithms are there, you can cover entire country with such systems and get cheap and precise alternative of radar coverage. Every country should have something like that. In time additional network of thermal imagers and seismic sensors should also accompany the radar, which is not always available and is not easily replaced. For current system I would put as a priority different information transport medium as cell network is not reliable. Optical infrastructure is a life saver in war as it is the fastest and immune to all types of interferences.
    Next step is to put automatic HMGs on critical locations and you can start to sleep better at least in regard to danger presented by Shahed class drones. For something bigger(and faster - recent "Zircon") you need big stuff but it is even more important to achieve faster response times. I hope that at the end of this war Ukraine will have nearly impenetrable air defenses(for a sane size of attack) thanks to your own developments and innovations.  
  15. Upvote
    Tenses reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is very simplified describing of this system ) I wrote several months ago about this. The system is not completed yet to be set around all country and cover all directions. Developers told they spent many time to teach AI to identify a sound of missile or drone among other sounds to avoid false alarms. 
  16. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Don't want to go farther into OT but at least for cargo we should have long ago switched to non-rocket systems. Rockets are good for humans, who are not feeling very well with 100G accelerations on their heads, but for any cargo like satellites, space station components, etc. we should instead fire them into space using electromagnetic catapults. Much cheaper, environmentally friendly and you can do launches all day long.
    There are some startups for that at the moment but when matured it could instantly replace anything what was lost in space due to warfare or natural reasons.
  17. Like
    Tenses got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, I really have read enough of this. You are having serious problems with proper assessment of what polish society is and what is not.
    First of all I don’t like farmers, just as Beleg85 said, they are not likable in overall polish society. I guess that it might be something with millions of donations from EU, retirement system where they effectively have it granted for free and a couple of other things. When farmers across EU started their protests by blocking centers of big cities with farming equipment worth in excess of 1 million euros each, it also was not very understandable by people in traffic jams worrying that they will be late to their, oh so well, paid job. But overall this is actually nothing compared to how „likable” are agro-oligarchs in Ukraine. You are now standing in their defense and I would love to see how much of the money they earn is supporting the war. They basically try to abuse unfair competition on EU markets in order to make money, but looking at the financial statements, I don’t see anything like „war tax” in defense of their country, soil that have given them free money, could you please explain me this? How does that compare to billions in direct financial and material support from western countries?
    After 2014, when immigration to Poland from Ukraine has increased tenfold, the overall sentiment for Ukrainian people was not perfect in Poland during the start of the war in 2022. Especially among low paid workers, additional competition on job market with low wage expectations were seen as danger. Situation was similar to our US friends, who can elaborate more on overall sentiment toward Mexicans and South American people. Invasion started on 24th of February, my wife spent entire weekend starting 26th on the border, serving hot meals and distributing blankets to the wave of people in need. Week later we went for the local train station, looked around and took home a mother with a child, who have not even spoken a word in Polish/English. She stayed with us for half a year, when she found suitable job and shelter. My then-boss took a family of 8 and even took care of one girl, who was in the middle of chemotherapy, so she could finish it in Poland without problems. This is just a small part of what happened at that time, no one asked questions, no one was whining, because these were people in dire need. Do you think I liked to have a stranger mother with spoiled child in my home? I didn’t, but this is not the point in helping other people to like that. It is to do that effectively and provide whatever is needed despite your feelings or likening. If you will ever work with people like that, you will learn that this is no simple, nor nice task.
    Now you are telling me that polish people have showed that they don’t give a **** about Ukraine because they don’t want to give billions of Euro to your corrupted oligarchs, who are most likely closely connected with Russia. Not to mention some of their perfidious actions, which are gaining better coverage in Poland, which directly hit polish stock holders(so effectively all polish people due to retirement system). You must understand that Ukraine has a long way to go before it will be normal country and I am not even saying about the war. Believe me, Poland was on the same track 35 years ago, but it serves as an example that even if things are not perfect, it is doable. At the moment Ukraine is corrupted as were all post Soviet countries, but it is not that important as long as the war goes. This WILL be important, when the war finally ends to continue normal cooperation with the western countries and their business. Hopefully Ukraine will join EU, but it has so much work to do.
    And just as a reminder, borders were open to Ukrainian grain, which is not up to EU standards due to blocked export channel through the Black Sea. Now, thanks to marvelous work of Ukrainian drone fleet, this is not an issue anymore, so what exactly are we talking about? No military/humanitarian or other aid was ever blocked, save for some mistakes, nor will be. This is all about bunch of bastards, who want to profit from the blood of your countryman.
  18. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from chris talpas in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What I mean by saying that grain exports are not contributing to the war effort is that it provides money. From quick search it seems that agricultural exports peaked in its value in 2021 by adding 27.8 B$ to GDP(so it is not cash, just taxable economic value). Unfortunately money alone is not enough to pop out warplanes, tanks, drones etc. Of course having smaller deficit is nice and will put less strain on western countries, which at the moment effectively keep Ukraine afloat thanks to covering its deficits, but it does not change the situation of war effort by any means. If there would be no grain export, West would have to pay higher bill for keeping Ukraine up, but lets face that, money is of least concern, especially for countries like Germany, which are more comfortable with paying the bills than military support(not saying that they not help, just prefer to base support on money for various reasons).
    Overall the cost of covering Ukraine deficit is not a big deal for western joint effort. Much bigger problem would be, if entire north Africa started to starve. This was Ruzzians main target to create further disruption in the western countries by destabilizing masses of hungry Africans. They are actively supporting illegal African immigrants long before the war started so it would fit perfectly in this strategy. Any Ukrainian income, which would be hurt during the process was secondary target.
    In general, keeping the grain exports up is important for various of reasons like mentioned World food security issue, better economy kickstart after the war, etc. but won't help directly in any meaningful way in fighting Ruzzians. When Ukraine kicks out the last Ruzzian out of its borders, we can surely expect very powerful rebuild program, which should put the country back on its tracks despite any previous headwinds.
  19. Like
    Tenses got a reaction from alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What I mean by saying that grain exports are not contributing to the war effort is that it provides money. From quick search it seems that agricultural exports peaked in its value in 2021 by adding 27.8 B$ to GDP(so it is not cash, just taxable economic value). Unfortunately money alone is not enough to pop out warplanes, tanks, drones etc. Of course having smaller deficit is nice and will put less strain on western countries, which at the moment effectively keep Ukraine afloat thanks to covering its deficits, but it does not change the situation of war effort by any means. If there would be no grain export, West would have to pay higher bill for keeping Ukraine up, but lets face that, money is of least concern, especially for countries like Germany, which are more comfortable with paying the bills than military support(not saying that they not help, just prefer to base support on money for various reasons).
    Overall the cost of covering Ukraine deficit is not a big deal for western joint effort. Much bigger problem would be, if entire north Africa started to starve. This was Ruzzians main target to create further disruption in the western countries by destabilizing masses of hungry Africans. They are actively supporting illegal African immigrants long before the war started so it would fit perfectly in this strategy. Any Ukrainian income, which would be hurt during the process was secondary target.
    In general, keeping the grain exports up is important for various of reasons like mentioned World food security issue, better economy kickstart after the war, etc. but won't help directly in any meaningful way in fighting Ruzzians. When Ukraine kicks out the last Ruzzian out of its borders, we can surely expect very powerful rebuild program, which should put the country back on its tracks despite any previous headwinds.
  20. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from Mindestens in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What I mean by saying that grain exports are not contributing to the war effort is that it provides money. From quick search it seems that agricultural exports peaked in its value in 2021 by adding 27.8 B$ to GDP(so it is not cash, just taxable economic value). Unfortunately money alone is not enough to pop out warplanes, tanks, drones etc. Of course having smaller deficit is nice and will put less strain on western countries, which at the moment effectively keep Ukraine afloat thanks to covering its deficits, but it does not change the situation of war effort by any means. If there would be no grain export, West would have to pay higher bill for keeping Ukraine up, but lets face that, money is of least concern, especially for countries like Germany, which are more comfortable with paying the bills than military support(not saying that they not help, just prefer to base support on money for various reasons).
    Overall the cost of covering Ukraine deficit is not a big deal for western joint effort. Much bigger problem would be, if entire north Africa started to starve. This was Ruzzians main target to create further disruption in the western countries by destabilizing masses of hungry Africans. They are actively supporting illegal African immigrants long before the war started so it would fit perfectly in this strategy. Any Ukrainian income, which would be hurt during the process was secondary target.
    In general, keeping the grain exports up is important for various of reasons like mentioned World food security issue, better economy kickstart after the war, etc. but won't help directly in any meaningful way in fighting Ruzzians. When Ukraine kicks out the last Ruzzian out of its borders, we can surely expect very powerful rebuild program, which should put the country back on its tracks despite any previous headwinds.
  21. Upvote
    Tenses got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What I mean by saying that grain exports are not contributing to the war effort is that it provides money. From quick search it seems that agricultural exports peaked in its value in 2021 by adding 27.8 B$ to GDP(so it is not cash, just taxable economic value). Unfortunately money alone is not enough to pop out warplanes, tanks, drones etc. Of course having smaller deficit is nice and will put less strain on western countries, which at the moment effectively keep Ukraine afloat thanks to covering its deficits, but it does not change the situation of war effort by any means. If there would be no grain export, West would have to pay higher bill for keeping Ukraine up, but lets face that, money is of least concern, especially for countries like Germany, which are more comfortable with paying the bills than military support(not saying that they not help, just prefer to base support on money for various reasons).
    Overall the cost of covering Ukraine deficit is not a big deal for western joint effort. Much bigger problem would be, if entire north Africa started to starve. This was Ruzzians main target to create further disruption in the western countries by destabilizing masses of hungry Africans. They are actively supporting illegal African immigrants long before the war started so it would fit perfectly in this strategy. Any Ukrainian income, which would be hurt during the process was secondary target.
    In general, keeping the grain exports up is important for various of reasons like mentioned World food security issue, better economy kickstart after the war, etc. but won't help directly in any meaningful way in fighting Ruzzians. When Ukraine kicks out the last Ruzzian out of its borders, we can surely expect very powerful rebuild program, which should put the country back on its tracks despite any previous headwinds.
  22. Like
    Tenses got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, I really have read enough of this. You are having serious problems with proper assessment of what polish society is and what is not.
    First of all I don’t like farmers, just as Beleg85 said, they are not likable in overall polish society. I guess that it might be something with millions of donations from EU, retirement system where they effectively have it granted for free and a couple of other things. When farmers across EU started their protests by blocking centers of big cities with farming equipment worth in excess of 1 million euros each, it also was not very understandable by people in traffic jams worrying that they will be late to their, oh so well, paid job. But overall this is actually nothing compared to how „likable” are agro-oligarchs in Ukraine. You are now standing in their defense and I would love to see how much of the money they earn is supporting the war. They basically try to abuse unfair competition on EU markets in order to make money, but looking at the financial statements, I don’t see anything like „war tax” in defense of their country, soil that have given them free money, could you please explain me this? How does that compare to billions in direct financial and material support from western countries?
    After 2014, when immigration to Poland from Ukraine has increased tenfold, the overall sentiment for Ukrainian people was not perfect in Poland during the start of the war in 2022. Especially among low paid workers, additional competition on job market with low wage expectations were seen as danger. Situation was similar to our US friends, who can elaborate more on overall sentiment toward Mexicans and South American people. Invasion started on 24th of February, my wife spent entire weekend starting 26th on the border, serving hot meals and distributing blankets to the wave of people in need. Week later we went for the local train station, looked around and took home a mother with a child, who have not even spoken a word in Polish/English. She stayed with us for half a year, when she found suitable job and shelter. My then-boss took a family of 8 and even took care of one girl, who was in the middle of chemotherapy, so she could finish it in Poland without problems. This is just a small part of what happened at that time, no one asked questions, no one was whining, because these were people in dire need. Do you think I liked to have a stranger mother with spoiled child in my home? I didn’t, but this is not the point in helping other people to like that. It is to do that effectively and provide whatever is needed despite your feelings or likening. If you will ever work with people like that, you will learn that this is no simple, nor nice task.
    Now you are telling me that polish people have showed that they don’t give a **** about Ukraine because they don’t want to give billions of Euro to your corrupted oligarchs, who are most likely closely connected with Russia. Not to mention some of their perfidious actions, which are gaining better coverage in Poland, which directly hit polish stock holders(so effectively all polish people due to retirement system). You must understand that Ukraine has a long way to go before it will be normal country and I am not even saying about the war. Believe me, Poland was on the same track 35 years ago, but it serves as an example that even if things are not perfect, it is doable. At the moment Ukraine is corrupted as were all post Soviet countries, but it is not that important as long as the war goes. This WILL be important, when the war finally ends to continue normal cooperation with the western countries and their business. Hopefully Ukraine will join EU, but it has so much work to do.
    And just as a reminder, borders were open to Ukrainian grain, which is not up to EU standards due to blocked export channel through the Black Sea. Now, thanks to marvelous work of Ukrainian drone fleet, this is not an issue anymore, so what exactly are we talking about? No military/humanitarian or other aid was ever blocked, save for some mistakes, nor will be. This is all about bunch of bastards, who want to profit from the blood of your countryman.
  23. Like
    Tenses got a reaction from Astrophel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, I really have read enough of this. You are having serious problems with proper assessment of what polish society is and what is not.
    First of all I don’t like farmers, just as Beleg85 said, they are not likable in overall polish society. I guess that it might be something with millions of donations from EU, retirement system where they effectively have it granted for free and a couple of other things. When farmers across EU started their protests by blocking centers of big cities with farming equipment worth in excess of 1 million euros each, it also was not very understandable by people in traffic jams worrying that they will be late to their, oh so well, paid job. But overall this is actually nothing compared to how „likable” are agro-oligarchs in Ukraine. You are now standing in their defense and I would love to see how much of the money they earn is supporting the war. They basically try to abuse unfair competition on EU markets in order to make money, but looking at the financial statements, I don’t see anything like „war tax” in defense of their country, soil that have given them free money, could you please explain me this? How does that compare to billions in direct financial and material support from western countries?
    After 2014, when immigration to Poland from Ukraine has increased tenfold, the overall sentiment for Ukrainian people was not perfect in Poland during the start of the war in 2022. Especially among low paid workers, additional competition on job market with low wage expectations were seen as danger. Situation was similar to our US friends, who can elaborate more on overall sentiment toward Mexicans and South American people. Invasion started on 24th of February, my wife spent entire weekend starting 26th on the border, serving hot meals and distributing blankets to the wave of people in need. Week later we went for the local train station, looked around and took home a mother with a child, who have not even spoken a word in Polish/English. She stayed with us for half a year, when she found suitable job and shelter. My then-boss took a family of 8 and even took care of one girl, who was in the middle of chemotherapy, so she could finish it in Poland without problems. This is just a small part of what happened at that time, no one asked questions, no one was whining, because these were people in dire need. Do you think I liked to have a stranger mother with spoiled child in my home? I didn’t, but this is not the point in helping other people to like that. It is to do that effectively and provide whatever is needed despite your feelings or likening. If you will ever work with people like that, you will learn that this is no simple, nor nice task.
    Now you are telling me that polish people have showed that they don’t give a **** about Ukraine because they don’t want to give billions of Euro to your corrupted oligarchs, who are most likely closely connected with Russia. Not to mention some of their perfidious actions, which are gaining better coverage in Poland, which directly hit polish stock holders(so effectively all polish people due to retirement system). You must understand that Ukraine has a long way to go before it will be normal country and I am not even saying about the war. Believe me, Poland was on the same track 35 years ago, but it serves as an example that even if things are not perfect, it is doable. At the moment Ukraine is corrupted as were all post Soviet countries, but it is not that important as long as the war goes. This WILL be important, when the war finally ends to continue normal cooperation with the western countries and their business. Hopefully Ukraine will join EU, but it has so much work to do.
    And just as a reminder, borders were open to Ukrainian grain, which is not up to EU standards due to blocked export channel through the Black Sea. Now, thanks to marvelous work of Ukrainian drone fleet, this is not an issue anymore, so what exactly are we talking about? No military/humanitarian or other aid was ever blocked, save for some mistakes, nor will be. This is all about bunch of bastards, who want to profit from the blood of your countryman.
  24. Like
    Tenses got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, I really have read enough of this. You are having serious problems with proper assessment of what polish society is and what is not.
    First of all I don’t like farmers, just as Beleg85 said, they are not likable in overall polish society. I guess that it might be something with millions of donations from EU, retirement system where they effectively have it granted for free and a couple of other things. When farmers across EU started their protests by blocking centers of big cities with farming equipment worth in excess of 1 million euros each, it also was not very understandable by people in traffic jams worrying that they will be late to their, oh so well, paid job. But overall this is actually nothing compared to how „likable” are agro-oligarchs in Ukraine. You are now standing in their defense and I would love to see how much of the money they earn is supporting the war. They basically try to abuse unfair competition on EU markets in order to make money, but looking at the financial statements, I don’t see anything like „war tax” in defense of their country, soil that have given them free money, could you please explain me this? How does that compare to billions in direct financial and material support from western countries?
    After 2014, when immigration to Poland from Ukraine has increased tenfold, the overall sentiment for Ukrainian people was not perfect in Poland during the start of the war in 2022. Especially among low paid workers, additional competition on job market with low wage expectations were seen as danger. Situation was similar to our US friends, who can elaborate more on overall sentiment toward Mexicans and South American people. Invasion started on 24th of February, my wife spent entire weekend starting 26th on the border, serving hot meals and distributing blankets to the wave of people in need. Week later we went for the local train station, looked around and took home a mother with a child, who have not even spoken a word in Polish/English. She stayed with us for half a year, when she found suitable job and shelter. My then-boss took a family of 8 and even took care of one girl, who was in the middle of chemotherapy, so she could finish it in Poland without problems. This is just a small part of what happened at that time, no one asked questions, no one was whining, because these were people in dire need. Do you think I liked to have a stranger mother with spoiled child in my home? I didn’t, but this is not the point in helping other people to like that. It is to do that effectively and provide whatever is needed despite your feelings or likening. If you will ever work with people like that, you will learn that this is no simple, nor nice task.
    Now you are telling me that polish people have showed that they don’t give a **** about Ukraine because they don’t want to give billions of Euro to your corrupted oligarchs, who are most likely closely connected with Russia. Not to mention some of their perfidious actions, which are gaining better coverage in Poland, which directly hit polish stock holders(so effectively all polish people due to retirement system). You must understand that Ukraine has a long way to go before it will be normal country and I am not even saying about the war. Believe me, Poland was on the same track 35 years ago, but it serves as an example that even if things are not perfect, it is doable. At the moment Ukraine is corrupted as were all post Soviet countries, but it is not that important as long as the war goes. This WILL be important, when the war finally ends to continue normal cooperation with the western countries and their business. Hopefully Ukraine will join EU, but it has so much work to do.
    And just as a reminder, borders were open to Ukrainian grain, which is not up to EU standards due to blocked export channel through the Black Sea. Now, thanks to marvelous work of Ukrainian drone fleet, this is not an issue anymore, so what exactly are we talking about? No military/humanitarian or other aid was ever blocked, save for some mistakes, nor will be. This is all about bunch of bastards, who want to profit from the blood of your countryman.
  25. Like
    Tenses got a reaction from alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, I really have read enough of this. You are having serious problems with proper assessment of what polish society is and what is not.
    First of all I don’t like farmers, just as Beleg85 said, they are not likable in overall polish society. I guess that it might be something with millions of donations from EU, retirement system where they effectively have it granted for free and a couple of other things. When farmers across EU started their protests by blocking centers of big cities with farming equipment worth in excess of 1 million euros each, it also was not very understandable by people in traffic jams worrying that they will be late to their, oh so well, paid job. But overall this is actually nothing compared to how „likable” are agro-oligarchs in Ukraine. You are now standing in their defense and I would love to see how much of the money they earn is supporting the war. They basically try to abuse unfair competition on EU markets in order to make money, but looking at the financial statements, I don’t see anything like „war tax” in defense of their country, soil that have given them free money, could you please explain me this? How does that compare to billions in direct financial and material support from western countries?
    After 2014, when immigration to Poland from Ukraine has increased tenfold, the overall sentiment for Ukrainian people was not perfect in Poland during the start of the war in 2022. Especially among low paid workers, additional competition on job market with low wage expectations were seen as danger. Situation was similar to our US friends, who can elaborate more on overall sentiment toward Mexicans and South American people. Invasion started on 24th of February, my wife spent entire weekend starting 26th on the border, serving hot meals and distributing blankets to the wave of people in need. Week later we went for the local train station, looked around and took home a mother with a child, who have not even spoken a word in Polish/English. She stayed with us for half a year, when she found suitable job and shelter. My then-boss took a family of 8 and even took care of one girl, who was in the middle of chemotherapy, so she could finish it in Poland without problems. This is just a small part of what happened at that time, no one asked questions, no one was whining, because these were people in dire need. Do you think I liked to have a stranger mother with spoiled child in my home? I didn’t, but this is not the point in helping other people to like that. It is to do that effectively and provide whatever is needed despite your feelings or likening. If you will ever work with people like that, you will learn that this is no simple, nor nice task.
    Now you are telling me that polish people have showed that they don’t give a **** about Ukraine because they don’t want to give billions of Euro to your corrupted oligarchs, who are most likely closely connected with Russia. Not to mention some of their perfidious actions, which are gaining better coverage in Poland, which directly hit polish stock holders(so effectively all polish people due to retirement system). You must understand that Ukraine has a long way to go before it will be normal country and I am not even saying about the war. Believe me, Poland was on the same track 35 years ago, but it serves as an example that even if things are not perfect, it is doable. At the moment Ukraine is corrupted as were all post Soviet countries, but it is not that important as long as the war goes. This WILL be important, when the war finally ends to continue normal cooperation with the western countries and their business. Hopefully Ukraine will join EU, but it has so much work to do.
    And just as a reminder, borders were open to Ukrainian grain, which is not up to EU standards due to blocked export channel through the Black Sea. Now, thanks to marvelous work of Ukrainian drone fleet, this is not an issue anymore, so what exactly are we talking about? No military/humanitarian or other aid was ever blocked, save for some mistakes, nor will be. This is all about bunch of bastards, who want to profit from the blood of your countryman.
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