Gnaeus

Saw this on the Guardian when I woke up this morning ... I genuinely thought the reporting was about the US state, not the nation in the Caucasus. All the elements of the story - corruption, protests, right-wing wet-ons for Putin, fvckery with laws and legislation - fit either place, and for whatever reason the Caucasus didn't pop top of mind.

Freedom ain’t free.  Someone has to stop Russia from doing what it is doing which is definitely not “perfectly fine”.  In reality the kid did not run away, his family did when he was 16.  Now that he is 18 and of age; he is “staying away”.  I think every citizen has a duty to protect their nation in times of crisis.  A duty to protect each other when threatened.  If they cannot or will not do that then they really are no longer a nation.  This is one thing I think we have lost, and it will come back and bite us.  There is a solemn duty in being a citizen, and even a greater one in a free nation.  It is one that takes sacrifice for the greater good.  Now this kid could be from a pacifist ideology or religion, ok there are a lot of ways to fulfill this duty to serve.
What I disagree with is that is all fine for a young man like this to selfishly protect himself while his own people are suffering.  Running away to “embrace life” when Ukrainian children are dying back in Ukraine does not wash with me.  Personally I have been in two wars that really had not much to do with Canada.  We were really doing it for some greater global good (really did not turn out well in the end) but we all believed in it and honoured kids maybe a year older than this one who died in crappy places no one will remember in 50 years. The idea that one could “sit out” an atrocity like this invasion of Ukraine and still claim citizenship or ethnicity does not sit well with me at all.  It is shirking duty and letting others pay the price.   As we have discussed this kid does not even have to fight.  He can be in a support trade or work in industry or even humanitarian.  But his people and his country need him right now which is more important than how he gets to spend his twenties.  It is more important than him as an individual.  
Mark my words on this, we have more of this coming.  The future is likely going to demand more sacrifice for the greater good not less.  We will have to stand or kneel in the end.  And right now to my eyes, that young man is kneeling.

So the story really does not get into his motivations for not fighting.  “I want to be safe” is what we get.  Of course to “be safe” in Ukraine right now means fighting for that safety.  We do not know if the young man has religious grounds or even ideological ones.
White feathers is a poor analogy.  They were used in the British Empire to shame young men to go and fight in a mainland European war.  Many of these young men were in far flung nations such as Canada or Australia.  The peer pressure for them was to go to fight and die in what could be considered an imperial war.
Ukraine is in an existential war. The Russians have left pretty much zero doubt of this based on both their plans and actions.  If anyone wants to “go home to safe Ukraine” as a Ukrainian they are going to have to either be willing to fight for this..or let someone else do it for them.  This young man definitely would have somewhere to live…likely a trench on the front.  Based on how desperate the UA is for manpower he would likely have a job…killing Russians.  
Now it is his personal choice as to whether or not he wishes to do that but this reads a lot like the “cake and eat it too” generations we have right now.  I want all the healthcare safeties but no vaccines.  I want peace and security but not to fight for it.  I want cheap products and lifestyles but no climate change.  If this young man wants to live in a free and safe Ukraine he needs to be willing to do what generations before have done…be willing to fight and die to make that happen. Because it simply won’t be delivered like DoorDash or streaming entertainment.  Don’t want to kill?  Become a medic.  
My fundamental question back to this kid is “if you want to go home to Ukraine one day then what are you still doing here?” 

your attempt to play the both-siderism game is pathetic and shows an incredible amount of ignorance, both in historic and in current events.  What Gingerich did was completely unprecedented.  What McConnell did was completely unprecedented.  And Trump is off the charts for breaking both norms and laws.  ANd where on the left are the insane ones that are wielding power?   Where's the dem Matt Gaetz?  MTGreene?  American democracy is on the brink and it is due to one side and one side only.  Guess what --  Biden won't attempt to throw the country into a civil war to unlawfully try to cling to power.  Trump's been doing that for last 4 years, including a full on mob-coup attempt that left people dead.  So just WTF are you even talking about?  Clearly you've been watching Hannity or some other bull**** monger and now you are parroting their bulls--t.
So stop watching Fox & newsmax.  It makes you look like a damn fool.
Oh, and please respond by telling me how it's the dems fault the GOP held up UKR aid for 3 months.  Dems aint the ones on Putin's payroll.  
 

Fundamentally this is a thread about the Russo-Ukraine war that is (unsurprisingly) pro-Ukrainian. So the U.S. political party that refused to bring aid to a vote is going to catch the most flak here. And like yea AOC might be destructive to some process but she isn't destructive to getting Ukraine the materials the country needs to fight the Russian invasion. The House vote tally was overwhelming for aid so why wasn't there a vote on the aid 6 months ago?

Like I don't want to talk about gun rights, or schools, or abortion, or any number of other U.S. hot button topics. But I've been sitting here for ~6 months watching as one particular party refused to allow Ukraine what it needs. And frankly I'm not an unbiased observer about this and its one of the reasons I stepped away from the thread for a while. Its hard to come in here to hear and see bad news about the war and then be non-partisan about the partisan politics that are getting Ukrainians killed. Like if you trawl this thread you will see video evidence on nearly every page of real soldiers and civilians who died needlessly for some partisan BS.

 
 

Let's cut people facing an existential threat for them and their families a little slack. My country has plenty of things to regret under far less serious circumstances.

Hmm, well I will take your word for it but it really sounds like creative accounting.  This is a bad example really, traffic accidents are more often expressed in fatalities, not cars.  In fact one can have more car accidents but fewer fatalities (see: seatbelt campaigns in the 80s).
To my mind one cannot discount the mass of the population as a foundational metric of the power of any given state.  If Lesser Tonga decided to go back to a monarchy it will have far lesser impact regionally or globally than if China suddenly breaks out in Liberal Democracy; however, by these metrics we are counting "one".
Regardless, as much fun as this side journey has been, I think we can agree that democracy has come under pressure recently - there seems to be wide agreement on this.  Whether this is a blip or trend is kind of a red herring as it will either be a blip or trend based entirely on what we do right now.  And more specifically how well the US defends its own democracy individually and abroad...like Ukraine. 
As a Canadian, I can say with a lot of authority that if the US democracy fails/erodes, we are not going to be able to write it off as a "single nation backsliding" in the global ledger.  We are going to feel that impact on a very broad scope and scale.  Further, the western world and champions of democracy, fumble the ball in Ukraine the impacts on global order and stability will also be felt far and wide.  We cannot reduce this war to "one more in the lose column".  More importantly "how" we win or lose this war is also very important.  If we can "lose" in a Korean Peninsula scenario - which, I for one do not see as a loss but many will disagree - we can still preserve something of a global order.  If we catastrophically lose through apathy and political paralysis it is going to risk damaging the democratic narrative and influence for some time to come. 

And my point is that upward trend can only be sustained if we work for it and defend it.  Democracy is not the natural state of large scale human affairs or political systems.  History demonstrates quite the opposite.  The hope was that literacy and enlightenment would allow for greater informed choice by the masses but as we have just discussed there are some serious issues in the modern age with this.
Democracy using a much longer lens than even the last 100 years is a great experiment, not ordained by higher powers or a natural evolution that is enshrined in post-modern reality.  It takes work and sacrifice, it is not an entitlement.  Basically this could be the end of democracy if we sit back and let it happen. There is real danger in simply shrugging and declaring “slight dip” as if the upward trajectory is driven by greater forces.  Democracy will only survive if we want it to and make it happen.  We have seen it tried before in both Ancient Greece and Rome - albeit in different forms - and we abandoned it.  We can do it again…unless we consciously do not let it happen.

you guys are just a fountain of good vibes today!  Freakin glad I am already retired, and my life expectancy is such that I may be long dead before humanity implodes.

"Tearing it down" will introduce massive collective uncertainty into the last global superpower and roughly 330 million primates...many armed to the teeth.  It does not take a "smart and truly good person" to see how that will likely go.
The American Experiment is, at its roots, a massive social test.  A test to see if our species has evolved to the point where a power sharing scheme like democracy can survive at scale.  I would say the jury is still out.

Oh, are we gay bashing?  Definitely the root of all our problems!  I thought it was jews but the insightful & informative views here have convinced me it's actually the gays.  Or is it the muslims?  I can't keep up on who is currently destroying western culture/society so thanks for all this information on things that really matter.  Why, in the US 20 years ago we were told how gay marriage would destroy america, and it certainly has!  

Let's cut people facing an existential threat for them and their families a little slack. My country has plenty of things to regret under far less serious circumstances.

Let's cut people facing an existential threat for them and their families a little slack. My country has plenty of things to regret under far less serious circumstances.

Let's cut people facing an existential threat for them and their families a little slack. My country has plenty of things to regret under far less serious circumstances.

Let's cut people facing an existential threat for them and their families a little slack. My country has plenty of things to regret under far less serious circumstances.

Let's cut people facing an existential threat for them and their families a little slack. My country has plenty of things to regret under far less serious circumstances.

This. The war in Ukraine is getting people thinking about it but the first terrorist attack on a city conducted by heat seeking, pattern recognition driven autonomous drones is going to galvanize the entire West.

While the delay in approving further American aid for Ukraine is regrettable and has likely resulting in Ukraine losing more ground and infrastructure lately, does any else feel that a positive outcome of all of this is that it has spurred Europe to act more decisively in bringing forward their own aid and future commitments?

In the long run, that seems to be a very positive development.

Just can’t stay away.  I think you secretly like us and want to be on this thread.  But maybe someone hurt you?  C’Mon, admit it - this thread is far more fun than that other one.
To answer you question:
Find a wide array of open source beacons.  Internet is full of them.  Our real strength here is we have people in-country who can access the RUS sphere and translate.
Filter out the clearly partisan ones.  Objectivity is out there, you just have to work. ISW, RUSI, War on the Rocks, Oryx to name a few, all have pretty solid reputations for presenting either raw data, or good professional analysis by people actually in the business.
Cross check, a lot. We usually get an X video or somesuch but one needs to get a bunch of eyes on it.  Weigh opinions and merits of actual arguments as they relate to observed phenomenon.
Find some experts. You are not an expert. An internet account does not make you one.  I am an expert.  But…and here is the main point, you don’t have to agree with me.  Instead you should weigh my assessment against other experts…somewhere in the middle is likely the best guess for a truth.
Spend some time on “what we are not seeing but should”.  A lot of clues and details in the negatives.  

Roll that all up, take notes, do the work, ask real questions.  Then keep your eyes open because this whole thing is likely going to change…and fast.
The whole point of this thread is to try and make sense of the first real conventional peer war of the 21st century.  Its aim is to try and cut through the noise and find signals.  Big muscle movements in thought at this point need big proof.  If you think Russia is winning and going to win, you need more than “well let me tell you”.
Most importantly at this point you need to shush.  Type less, read more.  Come back with some good questions in a bit and you might get some civil answers.

Seriously guys, why are we (yet again) feeding the troll?
It's not like he has anything useful or even coherent to say, or is objectively considering counter points from various people, so... Why? 
It's just clutter, now. 
 

Well we can’t and probably won’t in our lifetimes.  The “truth” is a floating point of agreement (are disagreement) among humans.  We are essentially a species with brains big enough to invent the big beautiful fictions.  We believe in them so hard that they may as well be true because they create conative impulse.  I don’t believe in God but Holy Wars are still going to happen.
As to the weird string of political conspiracies (John Kettler is that you?).  In my experience in government, conspiracies are the rare exception - and they usually get caught out…that is how we know about them.  Governments leak like sburke after a few beers on a good day.  Most TS stuff is over classified and sitting on 00’s era desktops.  The government can barely get above board things done let alone wage an effective mid/dis information campaign against its people.  The governments that can have to spend a ridiculous amount of time and energy, over a long period of time, to even get close.  Russia tries very hard but we know there are holes in the fence.  Hell even NK is not fully able to fully insulate its population from outside info.
So while people like you are digging bunkers and fitting for aluminum hats, the reality is that governments are big slow moving bureaucracies good at only one thing…protecting the bureaucracy.  
Beyond that I am not sure what Neo/Matrix thing you are really talking about.  The war?  The causes of the war?  The progress of the war?  We will never really know the truth about any of it in some universal truth because no such human truth exists outside of science.  How do I know gravity works like they tell me?  Well go jump off a building.  As to the rest it is best guesses and close enough.  We can see what we can see.
What is really weird is that the Information Age should make it impossible to lie.  One can quickly verify a lie in the ocean of information out there…that was the theory.  But what did we do with that ocean of info?  We saw more lies!  We linked patterns that are not there.  Are you being lied to…definitely.  And what should bake you noodle is that because you are a human being the front and center culprit in those lies are not XYZ…it is you, to yourself.  We lie to ourselves all the time.  We filter, bias, ignore, reject and spin every time you look in the mirror.  We lie to ourselves about everything all the time.  Welcome to humanity.  

Putin's invasion plans were formulated on Hunter Biden's laptop.  They were created while he and George Soros were vacationing at Jeffery Epstein's place at the same time that Hilary Clinton was discussing a marketing plan with Epstein to use a Pizza place as a front for child trafficking.  I seem to remember this was close to the same time Jewish Space lasers were lighting up California forests because we hadn't properly raked them like they do in Finland.  I remember all this because right about then I was sticking light bulbs up my anus to kill Covid.
See it all makes sense now right?

Not sure if this was posted earlier or not. The details of the navies procurement fiascoes is certainly interesting in a train wreck kind of way. The really interesting bit though is that he spends the live five minutes of the video more or less begging for future procurement decisions to be tested in good and competitive simulations before you spend several tens of billions of dollars.
So can we have  a modern game now? Pretty please? Land warfare or the Taiwan straight, I'm flexible. 😅

the greatest nation in the world -- held hostage by lunatics due to the unbelievable cowardice of GOP congressmen & women and a GOP voter base-cult that's so brainwashed it doesn't even know where reality even begins anymore.  Disgraceful and sickening.  

We actually have no idea what Putin’s real base of genuine support is or is not.  First off he controls any and all “polls” either directly or indirectly so trying to gauge who really supports him, who is pretending simply to avoid trouble and who opposes but is afraid to say anything, in real terms is basically impossible to do inside Russia, let alone outside looking in.  “Look a bunch of people lined up to support him” is not a viable basis for deductions.
Second problem is that support, in a functioning democracy, is founded on a basis of “informed decision”.  This means that all sides can spin, argue and slant but in the end the news media and objective journalism is supposed to provide a voter with a range of diverging viewpoints and facts.  Voters can then decide who to support, or not support based on their own personal perception and understanding.  This is damned hard to do in a functioning liberal democracy; however, in Russia it is likely impossible.  Putin controls the mainstream media - we have heard endless stories of dissenters being arrested or charged, hell he passed laws making criticism of this war illegal.  He also has a lot of control within social media, suppressing sites and flooding the RUSNet with stooges.  We have seen enough outright lies and insane claims out of Russian media in the last two years to know that the average Russian simply is not able to access much beyond what Putin wants them to see and hear.  Under these conditions “real support” is nearly impossible because no alternative facts, ideas or even options are ever presented.
Finally, as our Ukrainian friends like to point out continually, the average Russian is poorly educated, poor wealth and largely ignorant…this is why they keep signing up for this war.  To now accuse these people of “knowingly supporting Putin” as if they have access to alternatives is short-sighted at best.  Further, Kraze’s continued insistence to call every living Russian on the planet as vicious war loving murders is not only disingenuous, it treads dangerously close to genocidal narratives that have no place on what is supposed to be a rational objective forum.  We know Russians opposed this war, a few hundred thousand ran away.  Others are resisting passively.  We also know that many really do not even understand what this war is or is not because Putin is preventing them from seeing any truth but his own.  We also know some Russians also buy into this war and Putin fully even knowing the reality.  In the end we are going to have to deal with all of them in some form or another because as much as some people are acting out emotionally here, we are not going to wipe Russia off the face of the earth and salt the ground on their mass graves.
So be pissed off, but do not come here and promote outright disinformation in some sort of weird attempt to get us to all buy into some “every Russian is evil and must die” nonsense.  There are all sorts of sites on the internet where people on both sides can engage in that emotional orgy, but it should not be here.  The second this forum becomes one of those places, I for one, am out.