Haiduk

HMS Dragon destroyer enters the Black Sea, substituting US DDG-80 Roosevelt destroyer and HMS H88 Enterpise SVHO

Not about Russian army directly, but about Russian weapon. Azerbajdzhanian T-90S, export version of T-90 mod.1992 (but with welded turret like on T-90A) was hit by Armenian ATGM, probably AT-4C/AT-5. The missile hit in the front turret, ERA activated properly. But looks like the missile and ERA explosions have damaged optic on the turret, also, probably, the crew panicked - they abandoned own tank, which could drive yet and fled. The tank was seized by Armenians.

The hystory has a trend to develop in a spiral %) In that times not only Crimea was under Russian Empire rule, but also for example Poland and Finland %)

This topic should be just names "Will Russia attack Ukraine?" and all. Before 2014 Ukrainian high-ranked militaries just laughed and weaved off, when some politics told them about Russian threat: "The war with Russia? Man, are you crazy? This is impossible! We are all finished the same Soviet military academies!" Well... 2014 came. You now, all this B-52 in the Ukrainian skies, British papratroopers in steppes, NATO ships in Black Sea and many other movements from the side of US and UK - all this need many efforts, many resourses, many money. So, US intelligence, not only "retired general", really had the information, the threat of possible Russian attack was enough probable to start all this demonstrations. But as I told, this is not a final. Situation with a water in Crimea will be just worth week by week, month by month. So, probability of Russian "crusade for water" still high. This Ocober, next October etc, no matter. All Russian military activities are showing they preparing to big war and their hand will not shake if all diplomacy efforts to force Ukraine to open the canal and take Donbas back on Russian conditions will fail

Another video of UK 16th air-assault brigade dropping

Poland and Baltic states. Four B-52 were in the sky.

Todays US/UK activity spotted not only over Ukraine, but also near Balarus and Georgia. Russia moved to Belarus additional forces of VDV for maneuvers - BTG in 900 men crossed the border recently. While three B-52H were busy over Ukraine, the forth approached to Belarus borders or Kaliningrad oblast of Russia from the Poland airspace, simulated launches and turned back Over Georgia US jet CL-600 Artemis not only passed along the Russia border, but entered in airspace over occupied Abkhazia (the Abkhazia-Georgia border is marked by bright red line) Cold war 2.0

Hm... Why 8? Caucasus-2020 has already begun. Russians already without a war lost Su-30, accidentally hit with Su-35 gun, KAMAZ command vehicle and T-90A Well done! If seriously, the situation with water in Crimea is becoming more critical day by day, so the "threat window" for us can be longer than time of maneuvers, for example until new US president takes office. About hour ago B-52H entered in UKR airspace, procceded to Odesa, where possibly simulated missile launches on Russian facilities in Crimea and flew to Romania. UKR fighters escorted There are many recon flights today over Black Sea

The pair of Ospreys from 352nd Special operation wing over Kyiv. US and UKR SOF troopers are conducting maneuvers around largest Ukrainian cities.

Like that guy from Donetsk car service? We lost Crimea and part of Donbas not because there were most pro-Russian people, but because there were most of "indifferent middlebrows" , which thought they would follow own interests and nothing change for them. Defense of own territory, own culture etc is not nationalism. It is healty reaction of organism, which names "the state". The states like authorities and (or) societies, which havn't a will to resist the inner or outer threats very soon can loss own identity if their neighbours have expansionistic plans and imperial phantom pains.

First day of Caucasus-2020 maneuvers was pointed with increased activity of NATO recon flights. Eight planes conducted own tasks over Black Sea: - US forces: two RC-135U/W, CL-600 with Artemis system, EP-3E, P-8A, MQ-9 - UK forces: R.1 Sentiel. RC-135W Also as minimum one Ukrainian strike UAV Bayraktar TB.2 was spotted in the sky over Kherson region

Ahah, man, you stuck in naphthalene ideology, though agressive leftists is trying now to reanimate it in one country. Modern world now is more diverse, globalized and сomplicated and the wars now conducting not so directly, like in times of Karl Marx with his "two clssses". I have own micro-business. Am I oligarch (burgeois ahah) or proletarian-"working people", which nothing to loss except own chains?

Crimean experts say the peninsula have the reserve of water about to December when current limits of supply will keep and wasn't significant rains. If Russia couldn't open the canal with diplomacy, they will do it with a weapon. Else water defficite will hit Russian military and industry too. This can happen in this year or in the next. We must be on alert.

Sea of Azov is too shallow for large-scale amphibious operations. Also part of coastline covered with minefields, number of which can be increased. Russian landing forces will enconter with needs of forcing several small rivers on the way to Melitopol. So, if such actions can take place, that only like Spetsnaz infiltration or as distractive maneuver. The same about Kherson. In Black Sea Russian landing capabilities is more sifnificant, but here we must fefine what objectives will pursuit the invader. To take the canal, gate, pump station, powerplant and establish security zone - is a one number of forces, to take Kherson, Melitopol and connect Crimean peninsula with DNR and Russis - is other. Russia will need fast result - the water, I doubt they will try large occupation scenario. About terrain I wrote in one of the previous posts. Meanwhile, before Russian Caucasus-2020 maneuvers, the cavalry has arrived - 450 UK paratroopers from 16th air-assault brigade were dropped from C-130J over Kherson region. This is largest Britain airborne operation for dozen years.

Woken from what? This is position of any healthy nation. You occupied our territories. Should we give up, recognized it, forgive occupants and supply as if nothing happened? Don't hold your breath. If China will grab part of Syberia, will you also say about "let make peace, stop warmonger rhetoric"? Yes, there are many indifferent middlebrows in our society, which have "who cares?" life position and will be agree on "peace for any cost". But even the third part of society, which ready to withstand Russia and Russian influence narratives about "compromisses and concessions for peace" will be enough to prevent current authorities from fatal steps. Not middlebrows make a history, it make active patriotic part, so I calm for Crimea supply or Donbas. Any step to sign agreements on Russian conditions and ultimatums, will summon street reaction immediately. There is a good story about indiferent citizen of Donetsk. When all this was starting he said "Who cares who's flag over the city? I have a car service business. Everybody need to repair own cars. If Russians come I will get paymnet in Rubles, if Chineese - they will pay in Yuans". Оk. Russia came. Russian Caucasian fighters came, directed guns on him and said "Get out! Your service station and your car now is our!". Middlebrows always can do wrong choise on elections for their calm life in "who cares" style. Authorities can make wrong or betrayal decisions, covering behind "this is what most of people want". But active part also always can fix their mistakes in order the story with Donetsk businessman will not repeat somewhere in other part of Ukraine and Ukraine still Ukraine, not Malorossia, URSR 2.0 of South-Western Federal district.

And this is right! Here the unoffical report about this accident: During the practice of attacking side, the one T-90A of separate tank battalion of 1st motor-rifle regiment of 2nd Guard Taman' motor-rifle division was hit by practice or HEAT shell, probably ATGM from own BMP-2, driving slightly behind on right flank. The shell hit the right turret toolbox. The box, which served like a "screen" was annihilated with explosion as well as the box with OPVT (deep wading system) and AAMG box with bullets, also external fuel tanks on the right shelf were broken, one of them was broken completely. The mark from the hit remained on the antineutron defense plate on the turret. The fuel from the tanks ignited and from the right side the tank burned thoroughly. But looks like there was no penetration. The commander got burns, rest of crew didn't suffer.

AT-5 Konkurs hasn't tandem warhead

I don't know where it better to post, so let be here. The accident happened during maneuvers in Russia - AT-5 Konkurs ATGM, launched from BMP-2 hit T-90A. There is no photos in proper quality, so hard to say the tank was penetrated in side turret or no, or ERA block was activated, but you can see the tank cought fire and probably significantly damaged. Also I wonder either was Shtora turned on or no.

Today's mission - as I know in first time RAF E-3D Sentry AEW.1 near Crimea. Also RAF RC-135W, R.1 Sentiel, Voyajer and two C-130J paricipated. From US side were RC-135W and P-8A

US B-52s from this time will be fly in Ukrainian airspace permanently like a means of deterring of Russian agression on southern direction - UKR AirForces Command today said. Three B-52H took off from the airbase in UK, entered in Ukrainian airspace, passed near Kyiv and turned to the Crimea direction. Ukrainian Su-27 fighters escorted them. After some maneuvers, B-52 refueled from three KC-135 over Black Sea. Per two RAF R.1 Sentiel and C-130J also conducted support mission along Crimea coast.

I said about this too - about troopers of some brigade. Looks like that lists of personnel for "vacations" were preparing randomly - not only best or experienced. Some BTGs were combined, established from all brigade's batallions, some were established on the base of one regular battalion as it should be. Sometime like in case of BTG of 76th airborne division, personnel was combimed from one regiment, but their vehicles belonged to other.

I would say not the best. Probably "more capable" than other mass of their contractors. But I don't know how their command made these lists. Even their VDV units didn't show any "owerhelming warfare" like their films draw. What I know by stories of soldiers, in 2014-2015 Russians were much better in Special Forces, artillery/MLRS and EW. Their ground forces, VDV, marines in the case of properly esteblished defense and strong resistance in many retreated, because of their motivation was not so large. For example, after UKR troops repelled fierce assault of Luhansk airport (as minimum two T-90A platoons participated) and withdrew in the night, Russian forces after this about two days shelled empty airport with artillery, including 240 mm mortars 2S4, but didn't dare to advance again. Probably this about older AN/PWS-7 and old thermal cameras, which civil volunteers supplied to army in the first year of war. Currently AN/PWS-14 in use, which now US officially supplies and I didn't hear negative about its. In the segment of portable thermal cameras, indeed Belarusian devices are very popular to this days, but Pulsar, not Yukon (though their devices also in use). Since 2016-2017 MoD orders Ukraininan TVT Archer devices (used FLIR III gen) - mostly thermal sights for rifles and machineguns.

Pro-Ukrainian Crimeans vote against any supply of occupied territory. They say "we will be endure this, because lack of water creates a problems for occupants and this is a tough lever on the Kremlin". Hearts and minds of rest Crimeans in last year significantly swings may be not to Ukraine side, but brightly against Russia. Not a secret, many of Crimeans thought in 2014 that Russia would give them Moscow-level salaries and pensions and their cost of life would be the same cheap like in Ukraine. But 2014 "honey year" gone. What Crimeans really got? Because of sanctions no international tourism, no normal banking system (even Russian banks didn't oiperate). Russia substitutes local officials to Russians, mass migration (+500-800K) created heavy pressure on medicine, education, traffic etc, medicine in deep crisis (there is no enough medics because of small salary), Russian force structures and reach businessmen restrict access to the beaches, which were for common use in Ukraine, cutting off them with tall fences and barbed wire. Reach Russians is grabbing the seacost and build there own villas or hotels with closed territory. Mass building througout all Crimea, which destroy local unique nature and cause additional problems with water, when objects break underground water horizons. Russians, which migrated to Crimea are very impude and treat the locals from above, which creat tensions. Especially with Caucasians. Crimean cities and nature locations littered with garbage, which throw "new Crimeans" and tourists. The water crisis in this summer much more shifted locals against Russia and local "authorities". They blame Russia that six years gone and authorities didn't do anything to solve the problem. Locals, sometime even those, who voted for Russia, already with nostalgia recall Ukrainian times, but this no matter. Crimea needs for Russia only like military base and like place for villas and palaces for "elite". Against "hearts and minds changes" Russia always has OMON and RosGuardia. The water is critical for Russian military facilities and industry, and in first place water resorses are directing exacly there, not for the population. So, water blocade will be continue. But back again to the topic theme. Crimean leader and Kremlin puppet Aksionov made statement today that Ukrainian water blocade is "ecocide" and "punishment of Crimeans for those free (really? ahah!) choise in 2014". He also said the blocade is an act of state terror, initiators of blocade must be prosecuted by Russian justice and threated them with "international tribunal". The same Aksionov only month ago claimed "Crimea has enough resourses and does not need poisoned Dnieper water" On the last week UN made a statement on Crimean complaint about water problem and pointed that Russia is responsible for water supply. But words of Ksionov has hidden threat. Russia can juridically blame Ukraine in state terrorism and use this as occasion to put ultimatum "give the water or we will take it by force"

Russia is recognized by Ukraine and international community as agressor and occupant of Crimea. According to Geneva Convention of 1949 all responsibility for population supply on occupied territory lies on the state-occupant. Malta, for example, almost hasn't own water, it imported from outside. Russia has grabed Crimea? Well, let now carry the water in the buckets through their bridge - this is already not our problem. Only so impudent state like Russia can grab foreign territory and think that country victim of agression must continue to supply occupied territory as if nothing happened! Crimea will receive the water only after it will turn back to Ukraine. Else, if Russia will not solve this problem, Crimea turned out into steppe desert like it was before 1954. But Russia can't do that. Pro-Russian Crimean said in 2014 "What further? Let even rocks from the heaven! We are in Russia now!" Ok. Rocks switched on.

...The look on Northern-Crimean canal on Ukr-controlled territory before the gate ... The gate ... and further Crimean parts of the canal Somewhere it concrete plates alreadey looted by locals