BletchleyGeek

I don't think so either. I have the sense that Bil isn't playing the ball, but the man.

I am not totally sure either @Lethaface- you raise a good point. The thing is that as far as I understand Warren is planning to push through his left flank (which is Bil's right flank). So if Bil uses his cluster ammo volley on those targets you mention, it may well be that he only hits trees, rather than Soviet AFVs. Those SBF positions that Bil has in his analysis seem to me only to exist there, rather than being something Warren actually intends doing. There's a forest with some logging trails crisscrossing it. I don't think Bil has even mentioned them in his analysis. Warren's sketch was seemingly avoiding them as well.

Cheers @Holien for starting the thread, and @Pete Wenman for sharing the map source (and the mapping work which we all will be enjoying soon enough). Having the maps helped me heaps to wrap my head around the AAR. Bil's force doesn't seem to have much heft to hold ground. So my guess is that he expects to be killing lots of Soviet infantry (and tanks) before they can dismount with his arty and attack helicopters. All he needs is to stall Warren's attack long enough to pour molten lead on the heads of his enemies, and even the odds. Much can go wrong with that. Warren's proposition is much simpler and robust, in my opinion. Depends less on what Bill can or will do (and that would be the point, to render Bil's decisions irrelevant due to overwhelming local force ratios in his favour). So in the spirit of those late 1970s manuals @akdhas been digging out, I would say Bill has a success probability of 0.3.

Cheers @Bil Hardenberger, I was assuming you had 1 mech rifle platoon and 1 scout platoons attached to your command. Re-reading the "Troops" section of your analysis, now I realise that you actually have two scout platoons. Besides the ability to spot for artillery, what kind of anti-tank weapons do they have? Just LAWs?

Thanks to @Pete WenmanI can link the pictures to places in the map. My guess is that you're preparing to advance on the town with your right flank, and also covering your back. You're moving your armor to what to me looks like a very safe FUP. It also incidentally would be a good position for your armor to be part of a KZ. If I am not wrong, you're moving them to what looks like a hamlet with a few buildings and a treeline, with possible keyholed battle positions. Not sure who are the dismounts on your right flank, but I presume they are taking with them their Dragon missiles.

No worries @Bil Hardenberger I wanted to appreciate your cinematic skills For the short form vignettes it is not worth the effort to upload to YouTube, but for the "Zapruder" ones maybe you can be granted permission to upload onto YouTube? Unlisted maybe? Learning a lot btw from the AAR, lethality, accuracy/reliability (or lack thereof) and spotting abilities. The Soviet gear is less of a mystery to me due to CMSF2.

You know better than anyone that there is a peak of activity at the Helpdesk with every release... hence the logical thing would be to have F&R and CW released as far apart as possible so you can get that nap right in the middle of the sweet spot in between...

The last GIF doesn't play for me, probably my browser doesn't like big GIFs.

I have found myself hovering towards big open world role playing games this last year... I guess it is my yearning for travelling: - Skyrim "Definitive" Edition - Red Dead Redemption 2 - Cyberpunk 2077 Yakuza: Like a Dragon got very good reviews, but the surreal sense of humour in it may not be your cup of tea. I also like playing party based RPGs, looking forward to Baldur's Gate 3.

The story for how those statistics were obtained must be quite interesting.

Really useful @akd, much appreciated!

Lovely pictures @Bil Hardenberger they do really illustrate what's going on in the game.

Totally sounds like a plan Capt - the maskirovka bit will be key, as there may be "player shock" if you truly surprise Bill.

The tank armor vs gun ping pong can be a bit boring after the first two rounds, but a very interesting question follows: how are supposed the US forces to be used in the battlefield? The composition of Bill's force looks a bit like a frittata.

Grabbing some popcorn Captain, this is gonna be fun.

Jeez mate, that was a bit of obscure trivia. Another great scenario, too.

Thanks guys!

Lovely @Pete Wenman what's the reference for the topo map on the left?

The more I think about it, the more in agreement I am with this. If Warren plays in character, I would expect an attempt at a "deep operation" - like a massed rush along one flank - rather than a frontal advance on the town under the guns of the enemy (the town seems to be at the bottom of a "bowl" in the middle of the map).

Yep, I find also the need to look at something else - the mental effort is pretty intense.

Just one divergent analysis @Bil Hardenberger - what if Warren decides to ignore the town and envelope it, or go around for it? Too little forces for that?

IIRC we started the game in November '20? Lockdown was useful, as I was working until late at night and sometimes we could do 2 or 3 turns a day. But then we take little breaks in between, as it suits us really. I went on holidays for 4 weeks for instance, and we have had short breaks as we're too busy or just too tired after work, family etc.

As we were discussing on Discord, big scenarios come with their own set of challenges and joys. One of my favs by @ASL Veteran (I am also playing "Colossal Crack" against the AI).

So the BAOR module is already in the works, I presume? Looking forward to see some chaps in their black berets and their SLRs.

By the way, how is that going to play out? Is there going to be house rules to limit command and control capabilities in some way? In a completely different setting, I recently made a statement along the lines that: "the perception I get from reading stuff written at the time, often considering Warsaw Pact militaries to be some kind of fearsome beast/machine that could somehow be led to its demise via clever tricks, gadgets and fancy footwork was a cozy notion which fortunately nobody had to find the hard way whether it was right or not".