Livdoc44

Haven’t we been here before?  Back at Severodonetsk were we not told at length how Russia had reframed this war in their favour?  And back then the RA still had massive artillery in play, now their indirect fires appear in trouble.
Regardless, we got the same stories of the UA bleeding out and “behind the curve”…and then Kharkiv and Kherson happened.
Here we are again. I am almost at the point that I am thinking this is a blue disinformation op aimed at getting the RA to keep pushing (and dying) at Bakhmut in order to weaken the line elsewhere.  The reported Russian losses are staggering and unlike the poorly mobilized infantry, all those vehicles and equipment are not things the RA has a “bottomless sea” of within its inventory.
UA is going to take losses and frankly it is in their best interests to look desperate - just keeping that big win slightly out of reach while the RA continues to bleed out.
Here is an actual metric of the UA bleeding out: when they stop sending thousands of troops to western training centres.  Once we can no longer load Ukrainians on these course streams because there are none left willing or able to fight, we know that the UA is actually in trouble.  That or some sort of RA break through.

Did you know Angela Davis is a direct descendant of a passenger on the Mayflower?  History is freakin awesome.
Angela Davis 'Can't Believe' Ancestry Discovery About Mayflower Relative (today.com)
 

for what it is worth you can go to comments sections in yahoo articles/reddit etc and find tons of responses from wingnuts.  It doesn't really tell me much what the average person who isn't sitting around posting on social media all the time thinks.
Also as an aside on this "cancel culture" thing.  Understanding history is important. period.  Whether it makes your guy look good or not, the details matter in understanding motivations and actions.  It is also important to establish context.  Growing up as a kid about all I knew of George Washington was that he cut down a cherry tree and then admitted his fault honestly.  later I learned he had wooden teeth.
I grew up in Phila, in easy driving distance of Valley Forge.  Independence hall was a rail line ride away. As I got older and lived in the DC area I got to visit Mt Vernon a lot.  (they used to make a great peanut soup).  I also got to visit other places like Jefferson's. I slowly got to learn more about these folks, both the good and bad.  These guys weren't saints.  They also however established a nation founded on some really important principles even if they applied those principles unevenly. As a history buff I want to know the whole story.  If that offends someone that wants to maintain some bogus unblemished view of them.  Well too bad.  All of us humans are flawed, we shouldn't be afraid to understand our flaws.

I'm 41 and I've got to say that at my age feeling young on what is technically a computer game forum feels positively weird.

Oh it is not so hidden, but nobody seemed to really care.  Other than some nasty terrorist and some screwed up countries that are always screwed up, most westerners were not thinking about conventional warfare at all in the last 30 years.  The few times we did get into a conventional fight it was against tethered goats like Iraq and over in days.
So western democracies gutted defence spending over time.  In fact most of the hubbub over NATO and 2% was less about collective deterrence and more about economic gains in defence industries (“jobs!”).  So here we are, again, playing catch-up and scrambling.  Problem is now that we are not even sure what we should be scrambling for, governments want to look strong on defence while militaries are trying to figure out what that means.
And the news media was absolutely no help.  They polarized and really just told target audiences what they want to hear, as opposed to any real analysis of the situation.  So people retreated into their echo chambers, and most are still in them. Add to all this the worst pandemic in a century where western society went legally insane for about 3 years and we are here in 2023 trying to figure out a conventional war that has brought us all closer to the brink.
Meanwhile in East Palestine Ohio…
https://www.factcheck.org/2023/02/multiple-federal-agencies-supporting-east-palestine-contrary-to-partisan-claims/
 

1 year of the war is passed. From the start of the invasion and to the huge count of air and missile strikes. One of my friends has been killed by wagner artillery in Bohorodichne village near Bakhumt. My father-in-law has been killed by storming the defensive enemy positions in the Kherson region 1st of October. I gave 3 of my salaries (all what I have)on the first day of the war on the military budget. Thanks to all of you, thanks for your help. Taking carry of our refugees, helping our soldiers to destroy enemy forces with AT weapons, artillery, APS, AFV, and Tanks, peoples who served in foreign legions. Thank you for giving billions of money to support our economy. Special thanks to battlefront for small support for me, when I asked about a discount, they gave me 2 games with all DLCs for free - I didn't expect this. Some of my relatives were in Kherson in occupation, and all high-value electronic and expensive things were looted from them by Russian forces. And now we don't fear rocket strikes (10 times they exploded 700-1000m from my house) we don't fear nuclear threat, we don't fear the second army in the world and you shouldnt. Sorry for we English would that what I want to say for all of you, I can tell you many things about the war but first i will try to improve my language knowlages.

Why you are flat wrong:
We have spent $30 billion on this war so far, much of which is actually recycled back into the American economy. That's equivalent to something like 4% of our defense budget to cripple the biggest threat to the global political order in half a century or more. This war is less than a year old  and Russia has already lost about half of the territory it gained.   It isn't our "foreign adventure" it is Russia's...which has repeatedly said Moldova and the Baltics are next. Which means NATO...and we certainly intend on defending it hell or high water and obviously should.

it is only just under 6 months since the Kharkiv offensive and it has been a muddy winter. Surely that doesn't equate to stalemate.  What gives?  The only way I see direct NATO involvement is if Russia does something truly incredibly epically stupid.... which isn't impossible, but also not likely.

No need, I have no doubt there are significant supporting relationships happening here.  We already know the west (US specifically) is directly involved in ISR and targeting.  We are definitely lending our expertise in terms of western equipment and force generation.  
But the west is not managing the application of this war.  The risks are way too high for both us and the Ukrainians to go down that road.  I think we are tightly linked and may even have a veto authority on some weapons systems/targeting; however I also strongly suspect that the Ukrainian military has complete unity of command up through to the political level.  If there are any management pressures being applied, the political level is the place to do it - trying to micro-manage a proxy war just doesn't work and is in fact a pretty key metric of being in a "bad proxy war" position (see. Vietnam).
And then the Ukrainians own the "ping space".  The returns from the environment are coming from them as they are the ones in contact.  We may be able to see a lot but they are feeling it. This means that they are in a better position to really build the instinctive understanding of the environment, not us - to really learn about a war you need to be all in it.  I have no doubt we are in deep on supporting roles in this, but they do not subsume supported roles - tails wagging dogs is another terrible way to wage a war.
Based on what we have seen there is just too much positive evidence that this is that way things are being run.  As such the UA is really out in front (and should be) on all this.  We are likely already lining up their leadership for book deals and doctrine positions - we need to learn very quickly from this war, faster than our opponents.  

Exactly.  Let's be brutally honest with ourselves here.  Western warfare theory and doctrine is highly elegant and has demonstrated superiority in some contexts.  However, it is also very fragile.  Books have been written about why this is and how we got here - to be honest I am leaning towards the "let's sell war as political 'fast-food' - cheap, fast and goes down easy" linked to a bloated military industrial complex (War Incorporated) as the primary reason.  Regardless our entire military doctrine is based on a highly interlinked and dependent system that we have labelled many things over the years - combined, joint, JIMP, multi-domain, all domain. 
It is a brilliant theory but it is not robust.  You pull out one critical component and the whole thing falls apart.  And of course being us, we have highly incentivized finding ways to pull out critical components for our adversaries.  Saddam H was a monument on "How not to fight the western world" and everyone who might be "agin us" took a lot of notes - and modern asymmetric warfare doctrines were born.  A2AD, grey zone, subversive, hybrid, NavWar, swarms, cyber and a bunch of stuff which we probably have not even thought of yet all got a lot of heat and light because they could be weaponized to help the western way of war fall apart. 
Say what you will about the Russian way of war but it is damned robust.  What is happening is a final exam on whether dumb resilience can still stand up in the modern era - my guess is "no".  However, our system is very vulnerable.  Take away air power and AirLand Battle falls apart.  Take away armor and combined arms falls apart.  Take away C4ISR and the whole damned thing falls apart.  The best generals right now train by taking things away because that is what our opponents are going to do.
So to clarify my point.  Given the same forces that the UA has, I do not think western commanders would have done better and in fact may have very well done worse.  Manoeuvre warfare clearly needs some rethinking in this environment and we already saw what happens when it is blindly applied, by the RA.  The RA are the ones who started this war fighting in a manner very similar to our own, not the UA - they did something else entirely.  Now at some point, good old fashion western manoeuvre (aka dirty tank-love) is going to work, but likely after a long campaign of corrosive warfare.  And right now the experts at managing that corrosive warfare campaign are in the UA, not back in NATO.
 

I remember a shorter clip of the complete clusterflock at the hedgerow opening when the artillery zeroed in, ISTR it was a few months ago.
This one is essential viewing for CMers IMHO. Long continuous shots and pans are priceless; too many jump cuts to the big booms make many 'Level 5' vids incomprehensible.
Take a look at the 'map' size too.

It will never not make me laugh that the party that's now bitching about money spent in Ukraine...as opposed to Ohio...were the same party that gutted the regulations that would have done much to stop or mitigate the East Palestine disaster. 
And to drag this back on topic...that 5% of the US budget spent on Ukraine to wreck the Russian army is pretty much the bargain of the millennium. Stop having yourselves on.

And yet, EVERY SINGLE BILL in Congress, from the moment written, is available to every US Citizen (for that matter, anyone in the world unless some country blocks it), on Congress.gov, free to read, download, print, full text and summary, status, votes in committee and floor.
The fact that the general public has no idea is at least in part due to the general public making no effort at being informed. When presented with extreme claims of doom due to the potential passing of this or that bill by either party, or any news or social media post, the general public should go read the bill for themselves and find out. 

Dave

This really is a “you guys” thing, so I am going to leave out any and all personal opinions one way or the other.  However what I do not get is that the US government is one of the most transparent governments in history.  
So if I am sitting on my back porch and someone in my sphere says “the government is spending all that money on Ukrainians and screwing Ohio-ians, damn [insert political party of your choice]”.  It literally takes an internet connection and about 10 mins to unpack this thing to a level that at least lays out some actual facts:
https://www.policymattersohio.org/research-policy/quality-ohio/revenue-budget/budget-policy/review-of-ohios-2022-23-budget
https://www.lsc.ohio.gov/assets/organizations/legislative-service-commission/files/historical-revenues-and-expenditures-table-1-grf-lpef-and-lgf-revenue-history.pdf
https://www.lsc.ohio.gov/publications/historical-revenues-and-expenditures
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/federal-aid-by-state
So the punchline is that the US federal government spent about $40B on Ohio alone in 22-23 (12B in grants which are code for “we never except to see them back”) and Ohio is in the top ten states to receive federal funding annually.
Yes, it looks like FEMA is being particularly dense and bureaucratic - and they likely need some executive nudging, however, we are talking about apples and unicorns here in both scale and funding streams.
And finally, there is a lot of some pretty convincing arguments flying around that said dangerous cargo was supposed to be off that train but…politics: https://apnews.com/article/wv-state-wire-north-america-donald-trump-us-news-ap-top-news-2e91c7211b4947de8837ebeda53080b9mp-us-news-ap-top-news-transportation-1936e77a11924c909880f1ef014c7ca7
So what?  Well could the federal government be doing more cut through the red tape and support East Palestine Ohio - looks like it could.
Is the US government blowing all it money on Ukraine and therefore cannot support Ohio-eons?  No, that does not track.
Do US rail safety regulations look like they need a revisit - yes, probably a good idea.
Is there a direct link between East Palestine Ohio and US support to Ukraine - no.  In fact trying to find and indirect link is pretty hard.  The US federal budget was roughly $6.27T in 2022.  The $50B in aid to Ukraine comes to about .8% of that.
So for perspective if an average family income in the US is about 71k per year: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2022/demo/p60-276.html
So in parallel terms this would be the same as that family spending about $560 dollars, or about $46 per month.
And last point, one of those corrupt former Soviet republics is Russia, a P5 UNSC member and nuclear power, and is directly threatening US global interest and influence, on a great power scale - you wanna stay on top?  You have to fight for it.

 
 

I don't know the details, but I very strongly suspect that 'a small town in Ohio' *could* get aid if certain *cough*qanon*cough* senators and congressmen pulled their heads out of their asses.
It's not a financial binary - Ukraine or Ohio. It's a political binary - Biden doing good makes me look bad.

The most compelling explanation I have seen is the above. Russia had numerous motivations, both strategic and contractual, to explode the pipelines and it looks pretty clear that an accident forced their hand. In addition, the ships Hersh claimed did it where nowhere near the location and in one case was not even in service yet. His role as a conduit for Russian misinformation continues.

Just one soldier, doing the job of an entire squad... no wonder the Ukrainians are winning most of these engagements.
Fascinating video, thanks for posting it @akd... you can feel the fear and panic, you don't need to understand the language, but that man carries on. True bravery in action.

Oh and just to put the bow on this whole thing:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64644845
We had a lotta laughs though - cue montage.

Some proof that this doesn't only feature in CM 😉

 

This isn't unique to game software. 😀 
I just retired from a 38 year career in radiation shielding design. We use a mix of our own and commercial software. But even using commercial software, the incredibly detailed model of the submarine shielding is the key, and it takes a huge effort to make that model. Likewise, our home grown software has developed and evolved over decades to where it is today. Many times (always, really) shoehorning a new capability into this software ends up being MUCH more involved than we first expected. And we've been the recipients of the "It should be easy to add XYZ. Why is your estimate so high?" comments.  Yeah, sure. We'll see.  
I can sympathize with Steve on this.
Dave

I think it is amazing that BF/Steve are willing to spend so much time responding personally to customers who are making the same points as have been made since the CM games were first released - ie: virtually identical requests/ideas/concepts for the last 20+ years.  
Try getting that kind of customer service response from other established game software developers.  
The discussions are wonderful, but for over a decade I have wondered how many hours has BF spent on responses to essentially identical customer comments that could have been spent on developing more content etc.  

Gossips that Gazprom may raise their own mercs was flying for some time already. Some time ago people speculated it may be connected to necessity of guarding the railways (especially Transiberian), ports, factories, rafineries etc. - reportedly moskals already delegated non-insignificant internal and even regular military forces just for guarding duties in their geographically vast infrastructure. New bodyguard force could free them up.

Current RUS Donbass offensives also starting to be done with "class-A" units with bad results Seems the RUS "class-A" quality has reduced with losses and new recruits  Current offensives are very different from the past months. Mechanised assaults.  These operations seems to be the start of this awaited RUS offensive This "awaited RUS offensive" is going to look very underwhelming. Also the early signs point to this. One likely goal for these attacks is Izium. The need it to advance to Dombas deeper than Bakhmut. Unlikely to succeed Very sceptical of new fronts opening. Attack from belarus would take many times the current forces and months of buildup like we saw a year ago UKR is clearly preserving its highest quality forces. Line is now been held by territorials, legion and national guard Very hard to tell where the UKR forces are located. Brigades often send single battalion tactical groups all over the place. RUS also seems to have been preserving its highest quality forces UKR seems to have a plan of setting up new 3 corp level formations. Western armored equipment is part of this plan. RUS minimal wargoal is Dombas but it is also the hardest nut to crack. Unlikely to succeed. Best case RUS can hope for is to keep the current lines(take some, lose some) somewhat and exhaust both sides. The current tank discussions going to wrong direction. This new equipment is not going to be in time for the next offensives but is going to give critical future security for UKR. They can afford to take losses now. Even the most perfect major offensive is going to cause losses of armored vehicles in the hundreds. Mike doesn't believe in the NATO equipment wunderwaffe. What UKR need is equipment to equip their new brigades, not so critical is it modernized T-72 or leopard 2A4. Especially the tank debate is over valued. Biggest need is for IFV and APC. Also the greatest technological leap is in western IFV not MBTs. UKR needs artillery ammo, air defense, precision fires, long range precision fires and armored vehicles. In that sort of priority. RUS was very unlucky with the mild winter. Energy war and the UKR strike campaign RUS seems to have run out of missile stockpiles and is now firing at the rate of production. This means maybe one wave per month. Western jets are just a matter of time. No matter what UKR is going have to switch to western airframes. At the end discussion about cluster ammo, escalation and nuclear escalation 
Mike Kofman and Ryan Evans cover a lot of ground in this episode about the war in Ukraine: Russian goals in the Donbass, the coming Russian counter-offensive, the state of Russian and Ukrainian forces, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, cluster and sensor-fuzed munitions, fourth-generation fighter aircraft, a warm winter, nuclear risk, and more. If you are interested in what's happening in and around Ukraine, this is another must-listen episode.

Watching the recent footage like the ghoul I am, I am deffo seeing an up-tick in good vehicles. T-80BM's, BMP-3s. Famously the Terminators a while ago, too. And more frequently bigger groups of them then typical. So I would concur, from my very limit view, the attack is already underway to a degree. Presumably in the hopes of turning the Ukrainians out of their main lines before the B team shows up to push the "lesser" defensive lines further back.
 
As for the much vaunted 150k+ Russian troops about to wade into battle: additional troops do not an additional army make. What craptastic artillery, tanks, APCs etc will they be issued with? If the Russians can magic actual complete fighting formations together, that's great but whose artillery ammo will they be firing? From all the whining about lack of artillery support from the Russians currently in the line, they might be disinclined to share what they have.
I predict a very small  period where these reserves might make an impact, before they fizzle out.  I cannot imagine them having the staying power for a prolonged offensive. I'd be amazed if they had the logistics and cadre for anything more then a week or two.
 
I am a bit baffled about the expected timing of the big Russian push. We all saw what happened last year. Putin is almost certainly insisting on a result at the earliest opportunity. But by doing so he's reducing the chances of a result he might like.