kevinkin

Reading over at the war zone that the RA might be having some success with attack choppers. (Ka-52) Any thoughts on if this a real and or major issue for the the ongoing offensive? If real counter measure have to be in progress and made a priority. 

Thanks for posting that. My take away is that tank country is not "tank country" since any delay to an advance can get quickly nailed by various sources of firepower under the observation of expendable UAVs. I still think the single axis of attack will become a fait accompli once the RA is worn down by alteration can can't parry the killing thrust. We might be entering a new war of attrition where the attrition is not physical but wears down the ability of the RA to react.  

I agree totally with this type of operational method. It works with the UA strengths and against RA weaknesses. I don't think Ukraine really cares where the RA collapses; they want to make it happen somewhere. "Get inside" the enemy decision cycle and gain the advantage. Then let water flow downhill naturally. However, these probes need secure bases to operate from and that may in part explain their directions. 

You mean having no air force? Maybe the standards we see in within UA have a lot to do with the lack of standards their enemy has. And that is not to disrespect the small units fighting on the ground for the UA. We are all impressed beyond belief. However, the amount of firepower NATO could bring to bear in a professional manner is orders of magnitude greater than what the UA can provide even with NATO assistance. You can tell, I am Ped off and frustrated. Not at you dan. Playing armchair general is fun in peace time when everything is hypothetical. Every time a post to this forum is made a UA troop is dying within the same timeframe. Maybe not exactly, but you get my point. 

You mean having no air force? Maybe the standards we see in within UA have a lot to do with the lack of standards their enemy has. And that is not to disrespect the small units fighting on the ground for the UA. We are all impressed beyond belief. However, the amount of firepower NATO could bring to bear in a professional manner is orders of magnitude greater than what the UA can provide even with NATO assistance. You can tell, I am Ped off and frustrated. Not at you dan. Playing armchair general is fun in peace time when everything is hypothetical. Every time a post to this forum is made a UA troop is dying within the same timeframe. Maybe not exactly, but you get my point. 

You mean having no air force? Maybe the standards we see in within UA have a lot to do with the lack of standards their enemy has. And that is not to disrespect the small units fighting on the ground for the UA. We are all impressed beyond belief. However, the amount of firepower NATO could bring to bear in a professional manner is orders of magnitude greater than what the UA can provide even with NATO assistance. You can tell, I am Ped off and frustrated. Not at you dan. Playing armchair general is fun in peace time when everything is hypothetical. Every time a post to this forum is made a UA troop is dying within the same timeframe. Maybe not exactly, but you get my point. 

You mean having no air force? Maybe the standards we see in within UA have a lot to do with the lack of standards their enemy has. And that is not to disrespect the small units fighting on the ground for the UA. We are all impressed beyond belief. However, the amount of firepower NATO could bring to bear in a professional manner is orders of magnitude greater than what the UA can provide even with NATO assistance. You can tell, I am Ped off and frustrated. Not at you dan. Playing armchair general is fun in peace time when everything is hypothetical. Every time a post to this forum is made a UA troop is dying within the same timeframe. Maybe not exactly, but you get my point. 

You mean having no air force? Maybe the standards we see in within UA have a lot to do with the lack of standards their enemy has. And that is not to disrespect the small units fighting on the ground for the UA. We are all impressed beyond belief. However, the amount of firepower NATO could bring to bear in a professional manner is orders of magnitude greater than what the UA can provide even with NATO assistance. You can tell, I am Ped off and frustrated. Not at you dan. Playing armchair general is fun in peace time when everything is hypothetical. Every time a post to this forum is made a UA troop is dying within the same timeframe. Maybe not exactly, but you get my point. 

Nuclear blackmail is all Putin (and China) has and it's a better deterrent than any lame minefield he placed on the Ukrainian soil. So in a way Russia is invincible unless the west calls his bluff and ends the war via massive conventional firepower the likes of which we have never seen. Why didn't the US press an ultimatum on Putin months ago? Here we are watching Ukrainians die because we are afraid of going all in conventionally. 

Nuclear blackmail is all Putin (and China) has and it's a better deterrent than any lame minefield he placed on the Ukrainian soil. So in a way Russia is invincible unless the west calls his bluff and ends the war via massive conventional firepower the likes of which we have never seen. Why didn't the US press an ultimatum on Putin months ago? Here we are watching Ukrainians die because we are afraid of going all in conventionally. 

Nuclear blackmail is all Putin (and China) has and it's a better deterrent than any lame minefield he placed on the Ukrainian soil. So in a way Russia is invincible unless the west calls his bluff and ends the war via massive conventional firepower the likes of which we have never seen. Why didn't the US press an ultimatum on Putin months ago? Here we are watching Ukrainians die because we are afraid of going all in conventionally. 

Yes, that could be. And threatening the land link to Crimea is a beacon to consider. But the geometry of the opposing forces lines points south as well. Defending that land link might be a RA weakness because its of political value, not so much military. Threaten to pop the balloon in the south; but explode it in the north. I don't think the RA has the means to defend against alternation. Something will have to give. Lucy on the chocolate line:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=el2jPLlnnl8
 

Another analogy is the well known wolfpack sub tactics. Stay dispersed until intel informs you to concentrate. Get the job done, disperse, and wash and repeat. Without close air support, (saying power) this will be the UA mode of operations. They have no other choice. Corrosive is the term in vogue now. But it's really Hutier tactics in 2023. 

Well there is a One - Two Punch. I will put it on the drink menu. Proceeds go to buying more UVAs for the UA. 

ISW June 10th summary:
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have tactical advantages in conducting assaults at night due to Western-provided equipment with superior night optics systems.
We discussed night ops briefly just a while ago. Now this seems to make some sense. Perhaps the UA did not want to show this card too early before the counteroffensive with a front being static. Encouraging, but let's see how it pans out and how much of an advantage it is. 

Large summary from about an hour ago:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-advances-made-in-grueling-fight

I agree. The OODA loop is going with the UA using alternation in several recon in force thrusts. Without close air support, this might something the Halls of the Pentagon never considered as a possibility across wide open terrain. Nothing wrong with having a night shift to keep the pressure on. A really good poker player can keep the table guessing until they figure out the individuals at the table. Then all losers go home saying "what the heck just happened?" That is sort of the defeat phenomenon in maneuver warfare. The enemy thinks they are ok, until they are not. 

ISW June 10th summary:
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have tactical advantages in conducting assaults at night due to Western-provided equipment with superior night optics systems.
We discussed night ops briefly just a while ago. Now this seems to make some sense. Perhaps the UA did not want to show this card too early before the counteroffensive with a front being static. Encouraging, but let's see how it pans out and how much of an advantage it is. 

ISW June 10th summary:
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have tactical advantages in conducting assaults at night due to Western-provided equipment with superior night optics systems.
We discussed night ops briefly just a while ago. Now this seems to make some sense. Perhaps the UA did not want to show this card too early before the counteroffensive with a front being static. Encouraging, but let's see how it pans out and how much of an advantage it is. 

ISW June 10th summary:
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have tactical advantages in conducting assaults at night due to Western-provided equipment with superior night optics systems.
We discussed night ops briefly just a while ago. Now this seems to make some sense. Perhaps the UA did not want to show this card too early before the counteroffensive with a front being static. Encouraging, but let's see how it pans out and how much of an advantage it is. 

ISW June 10th summary:
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have tactical advantages in conducting assaults at night due to Western-provided equipment with superior night optics systems.
We discussed night ops briefly just a while ago. Now this seems to make some sense. Perhaps the UA did not want to show this card too early before the counteroffensive with a front being static. Encouraging, but let's see how it pans out and how much of an advantage it is. 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-iran-drone-factory-ukraine-war-dfdfb4602fecb0fe65935cb24c82421a
“This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran’s neighbors, and to the international community,” Kirby said. “We are continuing to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these activities including by sharing this with the public — and we are prepared to do more.”
A a pact between devils. 

The defeat phenomenon can occur rapidly, but when and when remains a mystery until it does.  It like watching someone work on a stuck zipper. They work and work on it until 2 or more elements finally align and connect and the slider suddenly gives way. 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-iran-drone-factory-ukraine-war-dfdfb4602fecb0fe65935cb24c82421a
“This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran’s neighbors, and to the international community,” Kirby said. “We are continuing to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these activities including by sharing this with the public — and we are prepared to do more.”
A a pact between devils. 

The defeat phenomenon can occur rapidly, but when and when remains a mystery until it does.  It like watching someone work on a stuck zipper. They work and work on it until 2 or more elements finally align and connect and the slider suddenly gives way.