hcrof

This dude, Ken Rhee, is a former ROK Navy SEAL officer and is a minor celebrity in Korea. He’s starred in a TV show taking other celebrities and putting them through tough military training (this is a popular genre in Korea). He returned to Korea recently after injuring his knee in Ukraine and is facing criminal charges. After the war kicked off in February the South Korean government put a travel ban on going to Ukraine for ROK citizens.

Ukrainian resistance in Kherson сonducted attempt on mayor of State penitetniary service Yevhen Sobolev, the chief of local correctional facility №90. He betrayed Ukraine and of own free will maintained deployment and food supply for occupation forces. IED was placed on the tree and activated, when the traitor drove in the car nearby. Despite on recently claims of Sobolev's death, he just got heavy injuries of legs (some sources say about amputation). His driver wasn't injured
 

I believe we are missing Crimea water problem. The Invasion of 2014 was not as successful as it might seem. RU failed to capture the land bridge and thus failed to ensure water supply to Crimea. The result was ecological catastrophe in slow motion.
So, Putin had very real pressure to start a war with Ukraine as soon as possible to capture at least enough UKR land to ensure water supply. And if you are going to war why not to try to capture whole things? Military reports they can defeat UKR resistance in couple of days. So, all out war for quick regime change is better than limited invasion with unclear exist strategy. 

About training of LPR conscripts:
 

Translation:
On Luhansk direction so-called "reservists" and volunteers are trained during 4-6 days. They practice shooting with AK, SVD, RPK and AGS. But how! Without zeroing the same AK on 100 m range! Radios - are new R159, produced in 1985 [likely means new, not-used radios of Soviet times from storages]. No any words about cohering of units. But before sending to frontline they have solemn prayer service. As a result, on of "barses" [joking name of conscript battalions derived from "BAtalion of ReServists"], even not engaging, lost diring the march 3 KIA and 8 WIA because of IEDs explosions. And since a week was disbanded because of 15% irretrivible losses and the same number of refuseniks, incuding their commander.
We were different. Several days they have been gazered a group of mobilized and volunteers in HQ company [probably of regimnet]. All this time all combat training there was bulkhead of rotten potatoes. Then we were dressed, giving out, what was in storages and not in size [in UKR army we often have the same problem, so soldiers or their families often buy own uniform in size like reserve]. Then we were moved to Rubizhne. There novices spent 2-3 days in the rear on chores and night duties as "watchers". Then all were sent to 1st and 2nd lines - to the front. Concerning the firing pravtices, starshyna said us: "checj your rifles and shoot inside the yard on thst 9-storey house. We three went out and shot per a magazine each. Through five minutes on positions of our neigbours started a coomotion - they tought enemy diversion group sneak here and there is a battle in the rear"    

And another rant - Murz reaction to RU notion of UKR imminent defeat. 
[QUOTE]
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have lost most of the modern modifications of the T-72/90 and most of the BMP-3 fleet since the beginning of the SVO. More than a month ago, the crossing near Belogorovka showed not only the monstrous situation with the incompetence of the command in some places, but also that the Russian Armed Forces are already fighting with the second or third sets of equipment, which consist of the same BMP-1, which the Ukrainian army is now receiving from Eastern European allies. Moreover, the APU has chances to get more modern equipment in the near future to make up for losses, but the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Corps of the LPR NM have no chance to replenish at the expense of modern products of our military–industrial complex - the military-industrial complex simply does not produce as much as it needs to be replenished, and it will not produce as much for a long time.
Therefore, the T-62 and BMP-1 are coming to the front from storage, and, for example, the radio navigation equipment on this technique is either rotted, or is missing, or is represented by R-123 tube radios, while the APU have a technology for installing digital Motorola and military-standard GPS receivers in armored vehicles.
For understanding, if there is now one fully combat–ready, combat-ready tank company out of three or four required by the state in one of the tank battalions of the LPR or DPR NM, then this is a record and a reason for pride. Moreover, most of the combat-ready vehicles are captured Ukrainian T-64s, because they are captured in a more tolerable technical condition than the own T-64s of the people's millionaires.
The same “fire brigades” are advancing from our side in these areas, assembled from the remnants of the units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NM Republics that have still retained combat capability.
In the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NM Republics, the situation with personnel, complicated by the mass of Russian refuseniks, is much worse.
What nonsense! How UKR came up with bull**** to teach someone… In our country, the mobilized are immediately thrown to the front. THAT'S HOW IT'S MEANT TO BE!
And, of course, there is no mechanism for the constant training of mass combat-ready reserves.
It has not been created, it is not being created and it is not known when this bright idea will come to the minds of the leadership.
Like Tyra, right? [UKR said they recently exchanged female civilian volunteer paramedic captured in Mariupol, accused by RU in war crimes]
By the way, our propagandists accused her of murdering a married couple with the aim of seizing children to escape from Mariupol [RU accused he in killing mother and kidnaping kids to pose as their mother]. That is, here is a direct visual war crime, for which it is supposed to be hanged. Still what? Or were they lying to us, or is it more important to exchange the son of our generals than to punish the murderer of civilians caught red-handed? Crippled separ[tist]s, who were lucky to survive in Mariupol, will appreciate this approach, I believe.
We also have this problem. How to “increase the production of UAVs" in conditions when all the optics for them came under even more severe sanctions pressure? No way. Similarly, the mass of positions in other industries.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, allegedly equipped with the most modern encrypted military radio complexes “Azart”, 250,000 rubles from the budget for one walkie-talkie, use Chinese radio stations “Baofeng” in combat operations, easily listened to by the enemy (2,500 rubles for a walkie-talkie).
Volunteers supply the army with optics, electronics, communications, thermal imagers and night sights.
In the units of reservists for three months of the war, the supply of even the most elementary things like the most primitive means of front-line medicine has not been established, not to mention the fact that reservists are fighting without normal means of individual armor protection.
Continue to Wait.
[UNQUOTE]

Interesting RU comment about rear echelon of enhanced LDNR Vostok battalion comparing to regular RU forces 

Sorry, but it looks like it is  not entirely true.
I do not know from where idea VDV keeps army in line is coming. Keeping army in line is a dishonorable job beneath VDV. It is the job of Rosguardia formations. 
According to RU talks Serdyukov was de facto relived right after ending Kiev battle. Now it is just formally arranged. They say Serdykov wanted to be a legend like founder of VDV Margelov and decided to press on for Kiev even after they realized UKR forces are not surrendering.
Almost all field commanders ignored him except 76th VDV Division. As a result the division got totally defeated (Divisional Recon company was destroyed). Those who talked with survivors got shocked for couple of days. Looked like guys were on edge of mutiny and Serdyukov got unofficially sacked.

It seems somebody somewhere reported that the island under firm RU control and cannot backpedal now. 
It looks like it is happening now in Donetsk area. Important RU targets are being hammered there now and RU looks like cannot do anything about. 
 

May I suggest that UKR exaggerates losses not for West but for RU to lure them to continue fruitless assaults? Keep going Ivan, you are doing great, hitting that wall with your head, ignore your head wound the wall is about to collapse... 

That is a very selective reading of the facts to justify his obvious position that Ukraine should just accept anything Russia imposes on them and the west should say sorry to Russia for opposing their unprovoked invasion.
I think it is clear to all that Ukraine is taking ruinous casualties and economic damage, but Russia is hurting bad too or they wouldn't be using t-62s and 1960s era "precision missiles". 
If Ukraine still wants to fight we should give them what they need. The russian state is a menace and crippling it is very much in the west's best interest. 

Russian planes are flying very low to avoid long range air defenses like S-300. A Gepard is short ranged but quick to react to a low flying target so would probably be very effective in this context.

That is a very selective reading of the facts to justify his obvious position that Ukraine should just accept anything Russia imposes on them and the west should say sorry to Russia for opposing their unprovoked invasion.
I think it is clear to all that Ukraine is taking ruinous casualties and economic damage, but Russia is hurting bad too or they wouldn't be using t-62s and 1960s era "precision missiles". 
If Ukraine still wants to fight we should give them what they need. The russian state is a menace and crippling it is very much in the west's best interest. 

Had a spare time and checked interview of T-80 tanker from the tweet above and I think it is interesting.
Author:
— A question about the mobility of the tank: GTD [Gas-Turbine engine] – "hell for suppliers" or a thing? Are they reliable enough? Problems on the fuel march? Smooth running, shaking, acceleration in comparison with diesels. What are the main disadvantages of the T-80 BVM?
Tankman:
— It all depends on what role the tank group plays. As practice has shown, the speed of the "box" directly affects its survival. The T-72B and T-72B3 had very impressive losses during the battles in urban areas, while the group of the 80s lost only one tank in 3 months of operation.
Of course, serving mixed groups is hell for rear echelon, but there is no need for them [mixed groups]. In the later stages of the operation, the machines were used for completely different tasks. There were no complaints about the reliability of the machines, they withstood more than they should have. The movement on the T-80 BVM is much quieter and smoother, which made it possible to carry out lightning attacks.
The main drawback of the tank is an outdated thermal imaging sight on which any landfill makes excessive background noise, and high fuel consumption.
 
Author:
— Nuances in use? Ammunition? Was the ammo put only in mechanized laying [autoloader]? Typical composition of ammo (proportion: HE, HEAT, APFSDS)? Or were they filled in for a specific task? What type of ammunition was used most often? Is the main APFSDS still 3B42?
ATGM — a suitcase without a handle or a really useful thing? Is it really possible to implement the "long arm" [feature] of our tanks in the conditions of combat in the current theater of operations [Not sure what he means as usually long arm of RU tanks is barrel launched ATGM with range longer than NATO cannons range, but given answer from tanker he might mean indirect long range cannon fire to counter NATO ATGMs]? Have you ever used it? If yes, then the nuances, reliability, were there any failures of guidance and what is their reason? From personal experience: what kind of ammunition would need to be modified or created?
Tankman:
— There have never been more than 10 shells in the armor [means inside tank]. From the experience of fighting around Donetsk airport, I know what happens to a combat vehicle when it is packed to capacity with ammunition. When a shell from an RPG arrives from the building above into the commander's hatch,  the turret flies to the 3rd floor of the [Donetsk airport] terminal. Our counterparts decided to ignore this simple truth and were always packed to capacity, for which they were nicknamed among the [men of our] unit "lemming herd".
There was nothing but Mango at the beginning of the operation, ammunition was spent so quickly that it was not possible to replenish it. As for the "long arm", I will answer as concisely as I can.
You can, but it is difficult. It is extremely inconvenient to make a calculation in order to hit a hidden standing target (God forbid, also moving), and forces you to invent a bicycle on the spot, based on the terrain features.
Concrete-piercing types of weapons are urgently needed, taking into account the NATO guidelines for the construction of fortifications.
 
Author:
— Observation. Did you perform any tasks at night? How does the commander conduct surveillance at night? How did the sighting equipment manifest itself? At what distances, on average, was it possible to detect the enemy?
Tankman:
— Performing tasks in the dead of night by armored formations is effective only when working from closed [hidden] positions. In an ideal scenario, if a tank group is advancing to the assault, it is better to do it at 2-3 o'clock in the morning and reach the point of the beginning of the battle by dusk. The sighting equipment is outdated, needs to be replaced. But for the fight against the tanks of the USSR, although modernized, this is not critical. Thanks to the infantry and the coordinated work of "Akhmat" [I think he means Chechen battalion Akhmat], we always knew where the enemy was and how he moved.
 
Author:
— General awareness of the situation. Connection. Communication in combat with an infantry unit? Were automated control systems used (according to the ESU TK type) or all only through radio communication?
Tankman:
— I'm not disclosing the communication details.[It may be because Comms are always real embarrassment for Soviet/RU army]
 
Author:
— Tank duels? Or are tanks not fighting tanks (with)[It is RU historical meme which caused a lot of arguments in RU mil history community]? Are there any problems with the defeat of enemy tanks? How do you assess the resistance of the T-80BV M to modern anti-tank weapons? What is the opponent's skill?
Tankman:
— Tank duels in this theater are very much in demand from our side, and we are trying to impose them. The superiority in reverse speed and the ability to enter the enemy's sides gives us the opportunity not to lose these duels at all ever. And since the Ukrainian tanks are completely packed with ammunition to the point of failure, you do not need more than one hit.
As for resistance against domestic weapons — a solid 5 [top mark]. As for the Western ones, it is more difficult, since we did not give the opportunity to use them against us. But, it seems to me, tandem shells could be a problem for us, but there is always a good old grid [mesh armor] for this.
Fortunately for us, competent Ukrainian tankers are gone, most of the experienced commanders and gunners were knocked out as a result of the fighting of the 14-15s.
Author:
— And the last question. How did the additional fabric screens perform [The egg shell armor but obviously he means working one not empty]?
Tankman:
— By the current moment, there are no more of them left on our tank. [RU Addon side armor packages are easily damaged and tend to fall off quickly]  But, apparently, we were hit with something during the cleaning of the village of "Z.", and they saved us. Works.

That's where I am too.  I worry that for all our confident theorising, the front 'freezes' along the Dnepr land corridor and Sievertsi Donets (yes, no doubt the Russians will eventually vacate Kherson and east of Kharkiv). Ivan will dig in, revert to 1980s tech and mine the sh%t out of everything. So by fall, the sheer human cost of retaking the lost lands becomes higher than even the hardest line Ukrainians can stomach. While Putin manages to keep the lid on far longer than any non-Russian could possibly imagine.
I could absolutely be wrong, sure and the Russian collapse could be sudden, and astonishingly rapid. I absolutely hope so.
...But for all the fog of war, I am still seeing Dmitro struggle to hurt Ivan on the attack for longer than a day or two.  
Even the many far better military minds on this board have not been confident enough to articulate the likely tipping point and its key catalysts. 250 NATO guns? Drones all grounded by date x? Ball bearings? Multiple causation? No doubt it will all be perfectly obvious in hindsight.
1.  In WW1, the French were fighting in their heartland as well, against a hated foe, and did it skilfully and bravely, but their army eventually cracked under the sheer weight of firepower plus failed counteroffensives. In this technological era, the meat grinder is sped up; we don't yet know how fast. And the Yanks are not coming.
2. Like Russia, Ukraine is not a young country demographically. Deaths and permanent injuries that go far north of 100k are going to be a generational debilitation.
3.  Russia's 'best and brightest' are heavily dodging service, letting the weight fall on non-Slavs, rural folks and the unfortunate separ populations. In contrast, the entirety of Ukrainian society is serving (except for the nearly 15% who are refugees). This is tremendous, except when the flower of their society perishes or is broken physically and/or emotionally.
4.  At the end of the day, Russia's population is still 3.5 times as big as Ukraine's, even with all the disunion and cavils.  In short, there's a *lot* of ruination in them still, at very basic levels.
So in the gruesome math of this war,  Ukrainian kids must find a way to resume material outpacing in terms of killing Russian kids, who aren't obligingly rolling forward in their zinc coffins so much any more.  Or else, we are looking at a terrible stalemate where all the small victories and enemy blunders won't reverse the losses of the first 2 weeks.
[/rollercoaster]

Looks like this thread will bring up China topic every 20 pages, inevitable destiny. Usually I will avoid because I believe this is off topic, also a lot of other members put some very good analysis and insights below. But I would just like to add some comments here.
China is helping Russian to stabilize its currency and inflation level by importing Russian oil/gas at higher than market level price , exporting the low cost consumer goods. And that’s it, nothing else. There are speculation that Chinese leadership is pushing for companies ignore the sanction but no avail. US sanction on Huawei and ZTE looks too scary. With China locked in some political drama this year, none of the Chinese corporation has the initiative to challenge the sanction (which I will explain later)
But the noise of “China is directly supporting Russia war efforts” will not go away. Almost every side is interested in to prove this is correct.
 
America:  making enough noise should remind the Chinese corporations don’t cross the red line, sending a clear message to the faction in CCP that pro business with western, Uncle Sam means business. To preserve our long time partner ship (and profits), you got to stand up and prevent such terrible things from happening. The threat of sanction should also reduce the volume of those panda hugger in Wall st, and make the international investor who want to invest into China think twice (OK, in the age of crazy inflation/recession, invest into America instead, I get it.😐)  ,
 
Russia: Back in 2019, a journalist asked Mr Putin that in the age of trade war between China and US, which one Russian will be side with. Putin replied , “when tigers fight in the valley, the smart monkey sits aside and waits to see who wins”. And this “Smart” monkey made a fatal mistake, got trapped, tigers wandering around the poor monkey. Monkey’s only hope is to have the tigers fight each other asap.  It looks like Putin and Xi had some kind of agreement during Beijing winter Olympic. Regarding how Russian can retaliate China if China refused to help, first , Russia can use the agreement to blackmail Xi
https://www.newsweek.com/china-planned-taiwan-invasion-fall-alleged-russian-intel-leak-claims-1688449
If that doesn’t work as intended , Russia can look for a different option, leak all the secrets to the public. Pushing Uncle Sam to keep his promise and sanction China. After that it’s probably out of control but that is what Russia needs, a chaos.
 
 
Now the most interesting one is China:  President Xi’s inner circle has used all available resource advocating “blood alliance” with Russia. Although never admitted publicly, under the instruction of Publicity Department many news outlets and influencers spread the rumor says Russia has received tremendous war materials from China. Funny thing, this propaganda is for internal political struggle.
Contrary to common popular belief, China is not a dictatorship. It is an oligarchy. Although people love to compare Emperor Xi to Chairman Mao, Xi is not a dictator yet.  Of course, we can safely assume he wants to be the Emperor. And due to the fact that he have made so many enemies,  he’d better to become the dictator to save his ass. So the scheduled ccp 20th party congress become a super important event. The country’s future, many elites families’ fate will be decided in this congress. Xi is facing a strong resistance at this moment. TBH it is unlikely he will be sacked in 20th party congress, but the opposition factions can block many important positions previously promised to Xi’s follower, which makes him a caged tiger without teeth. 
In order to secure his position, expand his territory, Xi must show the Party that under his leadership China has become
1, economic powerhouse: No one is going to deny that, but generally Chinese economic take a downturn under Xi 2nd term. It could face a crisis later this year. Of course, a projected western recession works in his favor. And a Chinese economic crisis works as a double edge sword, bad economic could damage Xi’s opposition factions’ power and influence, boost the message to all party members that we need an isolated, self-sustainable economic, and a STRONG LEADER
2, unification of the whole country: not going to happen this year, but maybe PLA can make a limit size operation, occupy Kinmen, Matsu and Taiping Island
3, successfully defend the population from pandemic: people will buy this in 2021, but with crazy strict lockdown this year, other factions interests have been badly damaged, it may have forced many neutral factions take the opposite side
4, China has taken the leadership of new world order: If Putin can come out as a victorious one. Or even a draw should be good enough, Publicity Department of the Chinese Communist Party will brainwash the population and make people believe that Nato and America is doomed. Empty word won’t help however, Xi must find a way to supply Russia. Unfortunately, most of the Chinese high-tech corporations, military enterprise are controlled by factions that is either hostile to Xi or don’t want to take a side at this moment. So, Xi’s inner circle must make a lot of noise, “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak”.  The propaganda campaign hopefully will convince some of the factions, that ignore US sanction and helping Russia is taking the side with the winning party.  I know this sounds stupid and could backfire. No one guarantee this will work, but that is their plan.
 
 

RU tactical aviation cannot operate anywhere UKR dug in and because UKR dug everywhere RU Tac Air is weak everywhere.
When Tac Air cannot support Land Forces the drone support is of critical importance.
AZER Forces destroyed ARMEN Arty with drones (implying it was war winning tactics). ARMEN Soviet AA made AZER Air ineffective, but AZER drones got arty (implying ARMEN Soviet AA could not deal with AZER drones).[AFAIR it was RU-based AA, it looks like Girkin just do not want to admit RU AA have difficulty with Drones)
RU extremely lacks recon drones.
Very few strike drones (but more than they have recon drones but not by much).
RU uses Caliber missile to do what US does with long range drones.
It looks like sone Tochka U will be used in masses due to lack of other PGMs (may be exaggeration as Girkin got emotional)
No comment regarding UKR shopping list - they look like they do not know what to say.
There are some preparation for mobilization but it means nothing as there is no guaranty mobilization will be called.
There is secret partial mobilization to make up losses. New formations are being made but there are too few of them. It is not a strategic reserve.
For 1 Army HQ (there are around 11 armies deployed) there are 1.2 classical division as per number BTG/battalions.
100,000 additional soldiers will allow only match UKR numbers.
RU RPO-A flamethrower (rocket propelled one) has real range about 100 meters due to accuracy. Still needs skilled shooter.
Main fight happens with Arty and mortars. everything short ranges is more or less irrelevant.
A RU general at Kharkiv asked his forces why they are running and not hitting UKR back with RPO-A (implying it happened during that famous RU collapse). They replied we are being hit with arty with much longer range. [Anecdote to show military incompetence and strange RU believe in magic of RU flame weapons)
Girkin used to shoot with RPO-A once. Missed from 50 meters. Claims he could hit standing man target with underslung launcher from 50 meters.
TOS difficult to use due to short range - lightly armoured, kills crew when hit even with mortar round.
They do not know why RU command does not systematically destroy all bridges in Donbas area. Aviation cannot reach them due to AA. They do not know why Spetznas cannot do it. They believe it is due conspiracy. [Apparently both RU Aviation and Speznas suck]
Girkin fuming that de facto there is no Flying Zone over UKR. He is claiming foreign planes deliver weapons directly to UKR. Claims there is conspiracy of sort.
LDNR tries to block RU volunteers from joining LDNR forces. Probably to block spread of information that LDNR forces are poor and poorly controlled cannon fodder.
RU grabing anybody they can for contract soldier but do not recall reserve officers - probably believe they have enough. They have enough regular officers and reserve officers could be politically unreliable. Ru main concern loyalty and not merit.
There is not enough modern weapons.
Kremlin is afraid of forming Ukrainian formations due to their questionable loyalty.
They believe West will exterminate RU that why they must destroy Ukraine to stop being used by West to kill RU. [No comments]
Operations take that long time because with current forces it is impossible to win (implying they are just prolonging the war).
Lack of drones is because nobody cares in MOD and other GovDepts.[Where Girkin was last 20 years? On a different planet?]
Girkin believe in due time UKR will start striking Crimea but he is not sure.
RU did not surround Severodonets area before assault due to lack of forces. UKR are fighting back hard.
When RU cut Artemovsk-Lisichans road UKR counter-attacked and pushed them back. Road is currently under RU fire only.
UKR terrain is flat terrain cut by recess with rivers and creeks and there are a lot of agricultural roads around. In dry season very easy to put bridges over these rivers and creeks to make another fully usable road to bypass dangerous part. Because of that the supply of UKR group is not cut.
Because supply is not cut UKR is not retreating from Zolotoe and Gorskoe to Lisichansk.
Because of that the only way is to frontally assault them.
Not enough forces to assault Slavynsk - tough defenses. It is large city agglomeration which needs to be assault from everywhere (implying not enough forces)
RU offence continues not because they hope for success but because they need to show activity. [Remember I talked about Pressure Cooker?] Also because they try to fix UKR forces. Finally if it stops UKR from getting initiative (implying RU will go totally defensive if stops)
Everybody already realized that current RU offensive cannot destroy UKR donbas group.[It looks like RU forces have to go defensive but cannot accept that and advancing where they can advance due to previous preparations. They simply cannot advance everywhere else even if it will yield better results)
They do believe that RU is not fighting seriously due to Kremlin conspiracy
They claim Brigadisation of RU army was to improve rebellion suppression capabilities of the Army. After some time it was canceled but they could not in time create enough proper divisions (Army HQ - divisions ratio above)
It was better to advance toward Kharkiv. Had better chance of success with much worse moral effect for UKR.
Current RU offensive did not give RU any strategic advantages except  [Victory] reports on TV.
They hope Slavyansk would not be attacked at all due to expected heavy losses.
Without general cleansing of top RU command and government war cannot be won.
But they will win anyway with or without Putin.
I am off to bed. Write if you need to clarify anything. If i have time tomorrow I will check it. 

Managed to watch Girkin/Kvatchkov video from Murz rant. I am putting my notes here. Sorry for dumping it like this and also for mistakes in translation. But I am tired listening them and taking notes. Unfortunatly I might not be able to do anything tomorrow or during the weekend. But I do not want to leave it till Monday. So, here it is. 
Disclaimer - take it with grain of salt. These guys are not like official 100% correct source. They might lie. They might be mistaken. I might got something wrong as well.
I also cut political takes and anything I saw as unimportant.
The most important - Ru offensive is already defeated they just kipping it going to fix UKR forces, keep initiative and for political show. UKR cannot penetrate deep and collapse RU defense due to RU aviation. RU aviation is only thing that keeps UKR from fast break outs (implying unlike defensive AA which is excellent, UKR mobile AA are not as good or they are lacking them or there is a problem). 
UKR morale is not as low as it might be seen from news with TD complaints. Cases of TD complaints are too few compared to the overall forces involved. Mostly because they were at the tipping spear of RU offensive and got hit hard by RU arty. UKR TD is equipped much better than Mobiks(mobilized)  of LDNR forces.
At Kharkiv UKR collapsed Luhansk Mobiks pushed till the border but now regular RU forces very slowly are pushing UKR back.
UKR have really defeated formations (implying TD but maybe not) but too few of them and they will be rotated out of frontline and restored. Nothing out of the ordinary for big war.
Some RU divisions have up 60% of refuseniks, especially from Kavkaz.
Legal wise RU refusniks and even deserters are very difficult to prosecute without full war mobilization.
Girking confessed during 2014 he took part in some "War time" trials which resulted in executions. They executed their own troops who committed serious crimes, marauders, and enemy war criminals [whatever that means].
Fuming UKR are more competent in maintaining Army moral and dealing with deserters.
Claiming there is high chance that captured British nationals will get amnesty or will be exchanged.
They are believing foreign nationals are coming for safari to hunt Russians.
Currently UKR are mostly using French guns (implying for hitting Donetsk area) [probably due to a longer-range RU has difficulty dealing with].
All RU 152mm Msta guns are at main front (implying Severodonetsk). So they have difficulty dealing with long range UKR guns in Donetsk area.
Too few satellites for recon.
RU cannot provide air recon for CB due to lack of drones (implying Orlan). Looks like he is avoiding mentioning aircraft for some reason, may be because it shameful to admit that VVS failure as well.  
Mavic Drone cannot deal with arty for CB due to short range.
Donetsk, Makeivka, Gorlovka and other cannot be unprotected CB wise (implying lack long range arty and drones in the area).
RU forces cannot destroy UKR group in Donbas without major strategic reserves (implying currently there is none).
Reserves are being prepared. But it will not be enough. They can only balance out UKR existing forces. 
LDNR cannot provide an additional 20 regiments of light infantry (capable of guard duty behind lines). Not sure what he means about additional - either he means RU is building force of 20 regiments and LDNR cannot match that or LDNR in the past provided 20 regiments and cannot provide any more. Only compensate losses.
There is no more LDNR regular infantry. All Mobiks (mobilized)
LDNR civilians morale - dissatisfaction is rising but it is holding because everybody know UKR are going to kill them. [Good example how Russian pressure cooker holds internal pressure for a longer period then western country with bat**** crazy propaganda]
RU border regions are constantly attacked/shelled. Recon raids are becoming more common. Their morale is much lower. [RU regions less susceptible to RU propaganda]
LDNR will rebel but only after RU territory rebel first.
RU pilots report that flying lower than 2 km is a death sentence. Especially during the second run. That's why they have difficulty in using certain bombs like Vacuum bombs.
Any RU aircraft is too valuable as only aviation can deal with UKR mechanized attacks in certain areas. UKR attack on Dayd Brode (Herson) was stopped with heavy losses by RU aviation.
So, RU cannot bomb freely - too much of tactical AA which is sometimes superior to RU.
UKR fortifications (implying east region) are too numerous and deep. They have sometimes three level trenches (I do not know what it is)
Only in few areas there is smell of RU Aviation (including Helicopters)
No UKR aviation (As I understood UKR aviation is not hitting RU frontline at least at east region)
Heavy losses in Davidov Brody due to UKR forces getting out of AA umbrella. It was very dangerous break out.
 
 

Due to secrecy, it is always difficult to know. But we can see certain trends. 
Kremlin power struggle is better view as Power Clans struggle than personalities struggle. Personalities can change any moment; Clans are very stable. 
There are three main Clans: KGB clan, Party clan and Military Clan.
For example, in Death of Stalin you see KGB clan (Βeria) was fighting with Party clan (Khrushchev) but Party clan allied with Military clan (Zhukov) and won. 
Fast forward to the end of 90s. Due to Chechnia and Yugoslavia the Party clan (Yeltsin) politically got weak. They needed somebody young and strong. Due to some cunning maneuvers KGB clan managed to finally sneak a young and strong trojan horse (Putin) to Party clan and got power. As a result, KGB clan forcefully allied and further weakened Party clan (now with sort of Medvedev head). Then during Chechen war KGB clan allied with Chechen Joker (Kadirov) against Military clan. Finally, there is Russian Joker (Navalny) 
So, the current disposition is:
 Party clan (Medvedev) weak and mostly irrelevant. But tough guy rhetoric means he is looking toward alliance with hardcore nationalists. That is Military clan. KGB clan (Putin) currently controls everything but politically very weak due to Putin starting the War. Unless they scheme something, they will be out one way or another. Military clan (military junta). Real hardcore nationalist. Dumb, brutal, and angry that KGB clan made them fight real war as a result of which their reputation was flashed to toilet.  Chechen Joker (Kadirov) - seemingly not very important Kadirov is in fact Putin most loyal ally against Military clan. Both Military and Kadirov hate each other due to atrocities during Chechen wars. Kadirov has his own small but well equipped and motivated military. But Kadirov hold loyalty only to Putin and has his own plans to achieve full Chechen independence. Russian Joker (Navalny) - the guy seems to have unnatural ability to survive where all others died. Even current imprisonment can be seen as making sure he survives until he is needed. This implies he is under KGB protection but most likely not under Putin but somebody else because of Putin's ego issues. My take is: 
Military and Party are allying. Medvedev is the Facade, Military junta is a real ruler. They are most likely close to power but probably cannot take out Putin. Putin is scheming to shift blame to military and finally cleanse them. Severodonetks can be a good place to bury Miliary. The more Military lose men and reputation the easier will be to clean them. In case of disloyalty there is a loyal Tik Tok guard. That is why they are not really fighting. Not their job. Somebody in KGB (Patrushev?) is waiting for Putin to die to activate Navalny so he can rise people against military like it was in august 91 then at least guaranty KGB clan survival. Everything hinges on Putin. That's why there are few men following him around to pick up his poo, so nobody can be certain.  That is as far as I can go. I can speculate further but it will not be very reliable. Because for example Military clan is brutal dumb nationalists. That scenario is bad. Like really bad. On other hand they seems to ally with useless Party clan. Which means they are hoping to deal with the outside world. So, at the end they might be not as dumb and brutal as they were in the past and are not going to start WW3.
Who knows. We will have to wait and see. 

It is more like he thinks talking tough gives him a chance. Or he wants to be either part of the real nationalist governmental faction or at least get some favors from them. Like his life in case of future cleansing of the house. 
If it is true then we have real nationalist coup to deal with.
EDIT Or he had a fight with his son who I think was resident of US. Or they got a very strong cocaine shipment. That is possible also.

The guy is being like this for some time now. Given he is pussy in reality this talk is puzzling. There is theory that he is doing it to look tough to be considered as Heir apparent.

I read a twitter of UKR soldier, who is Switchblade 300 operator, or had a talks with them. and he claims the main problem of this drone is not very good accuracy as expected, because, as I understand, it is hard to guide it directly in the target in final pahse. Also he told the camera quality is very poor and this another, but lesser reason of misses. 

For comparison, D-20 barrel life is  estimated at 6000 rounds, more then triple of M777 - that's the price of high performance.
Edit: oh, and an interesting bit from the US:
 

I broke through the paywall to the actual article. More interesting tidbits:
- UA has "burned through several dozen of M777s and those are being repaired". Might mean barrel replacement? Especially the first batch might have gone through 2000 rounds already.
- next group of HIMARS operators starts training now, so more are definitely coming. No info on numbers though.
- 155mm ammo producers in NATO countries are working 3 shifts now  and US is pushing RO and BG producers of 152mm to restart production. No mention of 122 tube/ rocket ammo, but it's reasonable to think they are not slacking off either. That is especially uplifting, as it means preparations for the long haul are being made, nobody expects ready stocks to be enough.
- UA has a steady 30 day stockpile of NATO ammo, and US intends to keep it that way
- Pentagon estimates that Russians lost 2600 armored vehicles indluding 1000 tanks, about 30% of whole stock, and used up 70% of PGMs.

Another post with interesting tidbits.
Lisichansk "neck" manpower
 
Why Donetsk is not covered by arty
 
Drone applicability
 
Avdiivka manpower
 
Donetsk - but I do not know. This one smells fishy (and could be fishy). 
 
Why Ukraine debacle is NOT just Putin delusion.
 

Murz published another rant. Interesting part is his discussion of conversation between Girkin and Kvatchkov (another infamous nationalist). Both of them are former officers. And considered wise men. Well, Kvatchov is a crazed antisemite but calm one. 
According to them federal mobilization is not called because it would show dramatic degradation of RU military system. [As if it was not apparent 20 years ago]. Current LDNR are idiotic and showed dramatic lack of many things.  
The specific example - there is no plan to provide PCs and MF printers to HQs of reserve formations. So, officers either have to buy everything themselves (but the prices are hiking due to sanctions) or fight using pen and paper. It is worse than in WW2 because there are no typewriters. Back to WW1 for LDNR reserve formations.
Nice Murz quote about the System I talked about (I will write about when I have little bit more time):
BTW, it was always like this even during SU period. Especially during SU period. 
another interesting quote 
As you can see the one way to collapse RU army is to kill/degrade artillery. It holds everything in place.