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hcrof

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  1. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russians gradually have been learing of Ukrainian experience of artillery fire control. If in 2022  - mid 23 we have seen typical Soviet style of whole batteries and even battalions of side-by-side standing guns simultainous work, that now Russians are more and more shifting to dispersing of artillery and work by single guns of a battery with individaual targeting for each.
    Here is google-translated post about changes since 2022. "The work was carried out in areas with a low coeeficient of UAV use" - means "ineffective area fire with low UAV usage", though for summer 2022 it's not always could be true, or soldiers then reported about dozen Orlans and Zala, ajusting fire. Probably ajusting was inefefctive or come on too long command chain, which made it ineffective.

     
    And addition to this post by other Russian artillerist with my translation:
    I'l throw my 5 cents:
    Regimental artillery tied on artillery chief (of regiment). He, sitting on command post (let's call it in such way) together with chief of recon, watch streams from UAVs (and intercepted streams of the enemy). Spotting the target chief of artillery transmits it to battery commander or senior battery officer  [he is commander of 1st artillery platoon also] and they transmit this data to the gun. 2-7 minutes for targeting of the gun, the bird [drone] in the sky. First shoot - the fire ajustment from artilelry chief directly to the gun. Or artillery chief opens the map, come into communication with gun commandr through the radio and gives the targeting (angle, azimuth, lines). The gun crew lives on position 2-5 days, further a rotation is coming. Nobody drink on position, it's taboo, else they go to "zakrep" [probably those who have to hold the ground after assault] - and this is more scary than to stormers. 
    We don't work with mortars since new year. This is no longer relevant becaus of crews life preservation purposes. Drones already fly on 10 km in the rear, so they clicks them at once  

    And here Russian feedback about CAESERs

  2. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine hit one of Sevastopol bays with "Neptun" missile. Local authorities claim "the missile was intercepted, but debrises caused small fire, which was quickly extinguished". 
    Though after some of locals issued a video with a fire on the some ship, thre were information appeared Russian submarine salvage vessel "Komunna" was hit.
    "Komunna", belonging to 1st group of 145th resque vessels detachment is unique and oldest vessel in military service in the world. It was laid down as far as in 1912 (!!!) and was comissioned in 1915 as a vessel for submarines resque and sunken ships and other ojects lifting. As prototype was used German vessel "Vulcan". Initially it named "Volkhov" and served on Baltic, passing WWI, Winter War and WWII. In 1967 the vessel was moved to Black Sea. Since 2016 "Komunna" was equiped with more modern AS-28 deep-submergence resque vessel, having opportunity to reach 1000 m of depth. Though, in 1967 "Komunna" had more capable deep vessel AS-6, wich could reach 2000 m, but was decomissioned in the mid of 80th. Othe one interesting fact aboyt this vessel - it hull made of unique ductille mallable ship steel - the hull of the vessel even now, since 102 years in very good condition, but the technology of such steel producing was lost after Russian Civil War
    Here is "Komunna"


        
  3. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine this night conducted large drone attack on Russian infrastructure objects with at least 50 drones, including jet ones. This was combined operation of SBU, GUR and SOF
    Russian side as usual claimed all drones were shot down/supressed, BUT:
    Most successful attack was on "Lukoil" and "Nyeftyanika" companies oil depots near Kardymovo village in Smolensk oblast. Both bases, standing side-by-side were set on fire. This is transit oil bases - Russian oil accumulates here before transporting on Belarusian refineries and then a gas and other products mostly go back to Russian market.

     

    Locals also reported in TG they heard a sound of jet engine and explosion in area of Smolensk aviation plant. This object, which specialized on light aircraft and Kh-59 missiles producing already was hit by a drone in November 2023
    In Vygonichi, Briansk oblast power substation was hit

    Staryi Oskol, Belgorod oblast - also reportedly power object was hit
    Reportedly a fire on power substation in Ufa, Bashjortostan Republic, but this is 1500 km from Ukraine. Maybe technical failure or diversion

     
  4. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More detailed sattelite shots of Dzhankoy airbase has appeared
    Large article with preliminary analysis: https://www.twz.com/news-features/major-damage-at-russian-airbase-in-crimea-after-ukrainian-attack
    Some photos from this article:
    At least battery set of S-400/S-300 destroyed

    Something similar to separately standing radars in zone of cluster subminition explosions

     
  5. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    TG channel of 177th naval infantry regiment servicemen mothers and wives says for two months in Krynky only 10 % of regimemt were turned back intact from initial 3000 of personnel. So 2700 killed, wounded and missed.
    Regiment now in own permanent station preparing new replenishment. 

  6. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There were six launches of Kh-22/Kh-32 today. Typical payload of Tu-22 is two such missiles. Reportedly one Russian bomber turned back after his leading Tu-22 was hit. So, probably 8 bombers participated in this raid and it's hard to designate which of them is Tu-22M3M
  7. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is probably wasn't posted here
    Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko in own intervew about week ago let it slip (or not), hinting about Putin's startegy for nearest time. He told that it would be great if Ukraine and Russia sign peace up to 31st of May. Because in this day powers of Zelenskiy expire and if, God save, other president will come to power like Poroshenko again, he may just to reject any agreements, signed after this data, because they were signed by illegitimate president. 
    Many of Poroshenko followers in unison with Russian propaganda try to share among Ukrainian society an opinion, that after 31st of May Zelenskiy will become an usurper and army shouldn't execute his directives. Really in Ukrainian Constitution has wriiten that in conditions of emergency and martial law any elections are prohibited. But there is no definition what should happen with powers of current president in this case. And this gives a food for different speculatoins. 
    So, probably, desperate and fierce meat assults, strikes on energy system, blocking of the military aid with help of MAGA side and some other factors, like blocking of Ukrainian borders by Polish farmers under protection of pro-Russian political force, urgent requests to stop hit Russian refineries are the chains of one plan to broke Ukraine and force to sign peace agreement. But something getting wrong...
     
  8. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Chief of GUR Kyrylo Budanov told in own comment to BBC Ukraine, that AD and GUR have been waiting Russian Tu-22M during a week in the ambush. The bomber was shot down on the range 308 km.
    Budanov told some thing was used, deeply upgraded by Ukrainian enginners. Some OSINTers on the GUR video recognized interiror of S-200, but with complete changed equipment.
    If true, looks like we could extend the range of missiles much more than 180-240 km of Soviet S-200V/M variants
    PS. Ukraine hadn't latest S-200D system with range 300 km. USSR had a time to produce and deploy only several complexes of this type in the late 80th, and they were only in Russia and were withdrawn from service in the mid of 90th. 
    Ukraine had S-200V with 180 km range and S-200M with 240 km range (255 km on AWACS planes). They were withdrawn from service in 2011-2013


    https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3g58qn2jvgo?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2AfBzV1Eh_3H9H3O2ycqZbVOnB3WvjlLJhYLm5Fh4_3lVpdQphJ-pBTRU_aem_AdlSS5xReobUX09lrT-tHx8agDHkU2b3y0ncsvUX982bv2sWMivU_F_W5V7t4OaV4MVejUFjlmfwVQc283wuhDYP
     
  9. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Anthony P. in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    On the topic of democracy (democracy indexes, democratic backsliding and the like) I can actually contribute with more than my typical "expert amateur's" opinion since poli sci is my academic background.
    The Economist Democracy Index appears to be from 2021 (based on Norway's and Sweden's scores of 9.75 and 9.26 respectively). That year Switzerland dipped down below 9.00, which changed its colour in the map @The_Capt posted. It might be a colour vision thing @kimbosbread? Personally I know that my red-green colour vision is in the dumps, and I cannot make out any distinction what so ever between the colours assigned to 8, 7 and 6 in that map. That still places it as a full democracy though.
    It should be noted for the Economist Democracy Index's use of the term "Flawed democracy" doesn't mean that it's not a democracy, undemocratic or the like:
    In the case of the USA, this likely refers to issues such as voter turnout, gerrymandering, first-past-the-post and the virtual two party system, civil rights, etc. Emphasis on "likely" though, because the Economist Democracy Index is based on anonymous scoring from undisclosed experts, so no one can say with certainty what particular aspects influenced a state's scoring.
     
    V-dem is in my experience the preferred democracy index, notwithstanding any personal bias (it's from my alma mater). What makes the most difference (going by the examples cited here) though is how you measure democracy: Visual Capitalist choses to measure shares of the global poluation as opposed to number of states. This leads to statistical oddities/misrepresentations of the scale of democratic backsliding, since states are entities: if say State A and State B have become democracies whereas State Z has become an autocracy, that's a net increase in democracy, regardless of the fact that State A & B only have a combined population of say 20 million whereas State Z has a population of 1 billion. That's how Visual Capitalist arrives at the dire conclusion of "2010 Democracy: 50.4% vs 2021 Democracy: 29.3%".
    India alone being reclassed from "electoral democracy" to "electoral autocracy" is behind a not insignificant portion of that change: the number of people living in electoral autocracies increased by 1.76 billion between 2010 and 2021 (India's population today reaching 1.41 billion). The remaining net global population which has shifted from "liberal/electoral democracy" to "electoral/closed autocracy" is "only" 0.7 billion. I.e., one single country falling back into autocracy is behind a smidge over 2/3 of that shift.
     
    If we were to look at states instead (the typical poli sci method and arguably the more accurate measurement), we get this more positive picture:

    Between the end of the Cold War and 2022, liberal democracies have remained virtually the same, more than half the world's closed autocracies have gone the way of the dodo, and electoral democracies and electoral autocracies are tied at 32.58%: back in 1990, electoral autocracies were almost 30% ahead of electoral democracies, and a staggering 36.84% of the world's states were closed autocracies. Closed autocracies were by far the most common form of government in the world when the Cold War ended: today its the opposite, it's the least common.
     
    That was an argument against Visual Capitalist's measurement of democracy. Democratic backsliding is accepted among most experts, but there's not much certainty as to whether or not this will turn out to be a lasting development or if it's simply a symptom of many politically and socially underdeveloped/unprepared states which were democratised when the Cold War wrapped up simply having reverted to forms of government which are more in line for what could be expected of them.
     
     
    Edit: I was going to write a brief reply. Instead I wrote more here than I've gotten done on my thesis during the last two months combined. FFS...
  10. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to panzermartin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    First Tu-22 kill? Pilots reportedly bailed out. 
     
  11. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to zinz in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://forbes.ua/ru/news/ukrainskiy-virobnik-gotue-seriyne-virobnitstvo-analoga-dji-mavic-shmavik-forbes-diznavsya-yogo-kharakteristiki-ta-tsinu-17042024-20603
    Via: https://mastodon.social/@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl/112296332321909985
    I still don't know why Ukrainians allies don't seem able to get projects like this on the way. The cost of development is a fraction of the cost of a leopard... Peanuts to what else is being sent. 
  12. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Formed from volunteer units of the armed wing of the Right Sector, the 67th Mech. is being divided up.
    From one of the articles linked:
    Imo, if true, that the unit could not integrate and was doing such Russian Frontline mobik tactics, then absolutely replacing with Syrskyi was the right move.
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/14/7451183/
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/16/7451501/
    https://t.co/SGm9I4j1l0
     
  13. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yesterday in Kamensk-Shakhtinskiy, Rostov oblast UKR UAVs hit the building of chemical factory, producing MLRS rocket fuel components. There is no information about the scale of detriment, just an unverified photo of probable fire in one of factory's building.
    Local authorities as usual claimed all drones were shot down, just one fell down on territory of the factory, damaging some windows
        
  14. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Two days ago UKR drone repeated attack of Russian over-horizon 29B6 "Konteiner" radar complex (it's receiver part) with 3000 km range near Kovylkino village. On the video we can see distant explosion.
      
     


    Some Russian TG claimed after second attack radar site isn't operational. Single research institute, which developed it almost dead and the factory, where this radar equipment was built already doesn't exist. Radar had been producing during 5 years and about 10-15 years were spent for it deployment, ajustment works and test service until it became fully operational. If this true, Russia got huge blind zone on own SW direction, so if Ukraine has super-long-range drones it can fly more free in this window to reach Volga and Syberia strategical military and civil infrastructure 

    PS. US media as always was alarmed because of this. Newsweek issued an article that this is dangerous attack, which can cause esaclation (OMG...) because Ukraine attacked startegical radar site, intended i.e. for early warning of nuclear strike and this according Russian nuclear doctrine can be considered as a reason of nuclear weapon usage. 
     
     
  15. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Then they came for der Mittelstand....
    I keep posting energy tech stuff because the modular/miniature/precision armaments revolution is absolutely experiencing the exact same dynamics, just not so well documented (yet).
    The West will innovate, but the Chinese will beat us to mass market, every time. With quality more than adequate for purpose. As innovative firms and their ecosystems starve and die, so too will innovation.
    Solar panels are now used as fences in Germany because they are more affordable than the usual fencing.
    The market standard for solar panels is now moving to Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (#TOPCon) technology, which improves solar cell architecture to reduce efficiency losses.
    The technology was developed by Germany's Fraunhofer Institute in 2013, but large-scale manufacturing takes place mostly in China.
    "European manufacturers have no money to change to the new technology. So now there is no competitive advantage anymore and they have to sell old technology."
    https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/squeeze-on-european-solar-manufacturers-curbs-innovation-cementing-china-s-lead-81072375


     
  16. Like
    hcrof got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The way I see it is that if you bombard and area with artillery then everything in an ellipse of hundreds of meters is at risk of dying. I don't see much difference in designating a killbox for drones and letting them go for it. In fact a killbox is better since it can be defined more precisely and the stroke can be closer to your own troops. 
  17. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to holoween in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It doesnt sound like much but youre looking at a full truck worth of wire for a platoon position and depending on how its delivered quite some time to set up. In an environment where trenches are quite often not even reinforced it seems to me to simply be too far down the priority list.
    Also my rl experience is were usually putting wire obstacles to channel the enemy to particular places by blocking paths in areas where there is not much freedom of movement like paths through a forest.
  18. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    1) Basically every industrial country has far more energy generation capacity than it needs to ensure continuous production - even if several plants need to be taken off the grid for maintenance or simply damage repairs. 
    2) Outside of the planned over-capacity, older power plants are not immediately demolished when a newer one is finished. They remain for years as a "strategic reserve". And due to improved technology energy companies are almost always building something newer and more efficient somewhere, so there is a continuous rotation from older to newer.
    3) Special government programs like in Germany, where renewables are being pushed, means that a lot of conventional power plants have been taken off the grid, but are not destroyed. Germany gets between 30% and 40% of its daily energy from renewables (and growing), and has roughly the same capacity, mostly in coal plants, dormant and ready to be fired up. 
    Ukraine's economy before the war used 125 TWh per year, which has dropped significantly due to the war to something below 100 TWh.
    Germany alone has likely 200 TWh of unused capacity next to the 500 to 600 TWh it currently needs per year.
  19. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just FYI Europe is trying to deal with the attacks on Ukraines energy infrastructure...
    https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-sends-emergency-aid-ukraine-after-further-attacks-energy-infrastructure-2024-04-09_en
    Long term and near term if Ukraine can get Wind Turbines and Solar (all time cheap prices on solar) a lot of what Russia is trying to do will be undone and Ukraine will be in a way better position after the war as it will not be reliant on Russian Gas or Fossil Fuels.
    The Energy market is changing and it will remove the stranglehold of the Axis of Evil as some folk like to call them..

  20. Upvote
    hcrof got a reaction from chris talpas in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Since this discussion doesn't seem to be stopping I want to say that both sides need to cut each other some slack. What consenting adults do with each other is none of my business and if my friends or family have a same-sex relationship it does not harm me in any way. 
    On the other hand some people are uncomfortable with that and they are not going to change their mind by your disapproval. They just need time and space to realise the whole country isn't going to burn down because some man decides to wear a dress or something. 
  21. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    New update from General Oleksandr Syrskyi:
    https://t.me/osirskiy/650
     
     
  22. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's became knowingly Russia used new missiles to hit Trypillia thermal power plant in Kyiv oblast two days ago. Recently it was considered were launched cruise misiiles Kh-101 type only, but now remains of Kh-69 were found. 
     

    Kh-69 it's a deep modernization of "air-surface" Kh-59M missile, turned it into compact mid-range cruise missile similar to Storm Shadow. Kh-69 in first time was introduced in August 2022 and on Dubai Airshow in 2023. The missile has GLONASS/GPS guidance and DSMAC. GLONASS antennas unit "Kometa-M" is shielded in lower semi-sphere for better protection from EW systems.
    Kh-69 has a range 290-400 km and carries 310 kh warhead (so at least 100-120 kg HE). Most bad feature for our AD is extreme low altitude flight profile. The missile can fly on 25-70 m which makes it too hard target for timely spotting by radars. Kh-69 developed for perspective Russian fighter Su-57, but probably Su-30/34/35 also may carry this missile.
    It's known about three episodes of Kh-69 usage: Feb 7 2024, Feb 18 2024 (launch from Su-57, but missile hit the empty place in the field) and Apr 11 2024 (Trypillia thermal power plant was destroyed)    

    Probable Kh-69 layout in Su-57 fighter

  23. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In last days Russians activated on Staromayorske - Urozhaine section (Berdiansk directions). Mostly a war of small groups for forward positions. Here is Ukrianian troops of 58th mot.inf brigade turned back own previously lost position in 1 km south from Urozhaine
    M113 approaches to threnches, shells it and land assault squad. Assaulters eleiminte Russians with grenades and HE charges, then ran back to M113, which already brought fresh group, which will hold position 
     
  24. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Elements of 59th mot.inf brigade,  109th and 111th TD brigades pushed Russians back from NW part of Pervomaiske village, taking back a school almost in the center of the village. Russian troops seized almost all it several days ago, advancing to Karlivla. This is southern flank of Avdiivka sector
      
     
  25. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Next Russian attempt to enter to Chasiv Yar from Ivanivske. Column is destroyed. Video of 225th separate assault battalion
    Su-25 over Chasiv Yar. Initially there was information this is Russian jets, but many told this is Ukrainian. Still unknown, so just "Su-25 over Chasiv Yar"
    Rare episode of Ukrainian aviation uses gliding bombs. Russian position in Ivanivske got GBU-39
     
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