hcrof

A  very interesting thread about present RU conscription cycle:
Oh, and if somebody missed that, Lithuania is not the only country embargoeing Russian exclave. Norway blocked Russians completely from transfering supplies to RU mining colony on Svalbard through Norwegian ports:
 

And civilian "Girkin" aka Nesmyan continue to expresses displeasure
Putin is losing the support of both military and civilian nationalists. 

I am sorry if I sounded impolite. I am still trying to adjust myself to be a better man.
  
On one hand RU is totally unprepared for mobilization. LDNR mobilization showed that the current RU leadership is too incompetent to make proper mobilization. On the other hand, it is politically dangerous as mobilization means a lot of RU people are going to die. So, a lot of people might decide that it is better to do a regime change. That's what happen in 1917. It is a nightmare scenario for a RU ruler.
 
RU sources says that without mobilization RU have manpower until July-August. Also RU government announced that gas maintenance will last until end of July. So, we can be pretty sure Kremlin does expect things might become very bad at the end of July.

It is a small thing but politically is very painful for a Glorious Strategic Genius Putin - How he can protect RU if he cannot protect bunch of RU citizens against heinous limitrophe Norway?  

Here is interesting article from civilian "Girkin" on failed political goals of Special Operation. Keep in mind this is from RU nationalists' point of view. 
Politically RU already lost to NATO. And if you know that RU joke - NATO has not even arrived at the battle yet. 

Civilian Girkin referenced following article about RU oil revenues
 

Provides perspective on General Sir Patrick Sanders' earlier comments about needing more mass.

There is one internal factor that needs to be taken into account. RU relies heavily on Soviet infrastructure. There was no any major modernization programs. Ru is crumbling slowly even without external pressure. Even without war RU would have 5-10 years. With the war and sanctions, I am afraid less than 5 years.
Quote from civilian "Girkin" about RU infrastructure right before the war.
Moscow does not govern anything. It just pumps money out of local regions till they start disintegrating due to crumbling infrastructure. The feared African scenario is actually default scenario. Empire will disintegrate regardless of West actions.

So I encourage everyone to simmer down a bit - it is not like we are going to solve it here.  We all have opinions that are influenced by current events, and the heat is understandable.  I would offer that we perhaps take a step back and maybe take a bit more pragmatic view of this whole thing.
As far as I can see many seem to be weighing in on the strategic end state for Russia; however, this cannot be viewed in glorious isolation:
Western Strategic Endstate - this is a gross oversimplification because "The West" is comprised of many nations, all with their own interests; however, we can probably sum up the western desired end-state as a "manageable version of the former status quo".  In simpler terms, the west just wants the stability and order they have enjoyed for 30+ years so we can all stay rich - while at the same time allowing that wealth to slowly distribute globally.  Kind of a weird global trickle down theory of wealth but if you crunch the numbers it actually happened, although not nearly as fast or as equitable as a lot of people wanted.  The West wants to remain top dog globally and ensure that it holds the pen that writes the global order.
Ukrainian Endstate - beyond basic survival, Ukraine will be focused on security and integrity of its state.  It needs to be secure and free from what is happening right now in all its forms, and allowed to chart its own destiny as a collective entity within the international community.  I think that Ukraine in the EU and NATO is almost a certainty as elements of that end-state. In fact being within NATO is about the only guarantor of security for any nation neighboring Russia right now.  NATO is too big to fail and even Russia recognizes that triggering an Article 5 above recognized conflict thresholds is suicide. 
Russian Endstate - Only China and its growing global power is a viable challenger to the western bloc - and Russia already knows this, Putin's pipedream of somehow re-creating a third global power pole around Russia was weak-tea for domestic consumption.  So wither goes Russia?  
Well first off, I get the heat and anger...and it is well deserved; however, the idea that the endstate is the elimination of the Russian people, as a people, is a dead end.  We would break that Western Endstate if we endorsed a war of extermination in any form - so be angry, but western support will dry up the instant we get into the "destruction of Russia" territory.  Beyond the disruption to the global order this is just a bad idea for so many reasons, all centered on the fact that Russia currently holds roughly 6000 nuclear warheads. 
Now I know some will say - "Ya but they are all under tight control in concentrated areas" - well good for them; however, if Russia fractures into several smaller states or duchies or freaking warlord centric tribes we basically have the worst parts of Africa with the power to kill millions rolling around the floor.  Make all the arguments you like, we dodged a bullet in '91 and this would be a lot worse than that because we are not talking about dissolution into already semi-functioning former vassal states, we are talking new states and non-state entities.   For example, what happens when a break away semi-state decides that a 500 year old grudge is worth firing off nuclear weapons?  What happens when a non-state group decides that Ukraine is to blame?  Or the EU?  Or the US?  Way too many factors to control and recall my rant on relative rationality, it gets more relative the smaller the social structure you are looking at.
So no, I am sorry, but the break up of Russia or total dissolution is not on the grown ups table, and likely will not be unless we are talking WW3.  Too many of our interests are threatened by this eventuality, to the point that if it did happen we would likely be talking about the largest intervention operation in history to secure those nukes, and we are highly likely to miss some. 
The contraction of Russia, however, is definitely on the table.  As I wrote previously, Russia must be punished, be seen to be punished, and know it has been punished.  In the West, I frankly suspect that we do not care what government rules Russia - so long as it is rationale, reasonable and we can rely on it for normal business.  We do business and support dictators around the world right now (e.g. Saudi Arabia) and frankly could care less if another one rules Russia with an iron fist...so long as they stay in their lane and know their place.  So regime change is also very likely on the table, the US has already signaled this.  As is, the serious reduction in the Russian economy its ability to sustain military power is definitely on the table.  This is to ensure that it cannot threaten its neighbors for some time; time to build security guarantees with any and all neighboring nations that want them...why?  Because stability.
So what is the strategic endstate for Russia?  Contracted, Compressed, Constrained, and most importantly Contained...but not Shattered.  We need a semi-functioning state in the penalty-box, cooperating in war crimes trials and paying reparations, selling off its nuclear stockpile "in kind for destruction"...all the while still selling cheap energy to us and not China.  Russia's deep cultural dysfunction needs to be in a box where it can be happy at how miserable it is and leave the rest of us alone...not thrown up all over the geopolitical dance floor with a nuclear weapon in hand and mascara running down its tear soaked face while it blames us for "wanting to sleep with every other nation in the bar!!"

Just for a picture of warfare intensity in Izium-Lysychansk-Bakhmut area. According to Zaluzhnyi statement, Russians conducted for the last day 270 artillery/mlrs strikes, used 45000 of shells, two missile strikes and 32 airstrikes

Civilian "Girkin" about RU Fuel and Energy Complex
 

I would expect that tin roof to be torn off by the overpressure wave (or subsequent suction), even if the blast was directed upwards by soft ground, but those guys do seem to be reattaching it so maybe that did happen. But the facade of the red building is spotless! 

Found RU AF assessment by sort of well know RU analyst Kramnik. I would not trust him with anything foreign but regarding RU he is ok (he does have connection to RU forces and tries to be impartial, for a Russian)  

Regarding Belarus Nukes discussion, here is quote from recent Putin-Luka meeting:
 

Civilian "Girkin" about RU gold industry
 

Part 2

Girkin fresh assessment. part 1

Dang, the guy wrote a book in Tweet form. Well worth reading though, many thanks.

New assessment from Murz. I think he shows what @The_Capt already explained.
 

The State Duma proposed to allow military contracts immediately after the draft
They are preparing to send kids to the fight. Well, not to the fight, just very close, to the areas UKR is going to pass after penetration of forward line. 
 

@Battlefront.com
Here is some recommendations from UKR frontline soldier for your collection
ATTENTION TO ALL, WHO FIRST TIME COMES TO EASTERN FRONT
1. Enemy has significant advantage in aviation and artillery.
2. There are no more stupid conscripts, but really trainned murderers, whick know own work
3. Our positions have been betraying by locals and drones ajust fire
4. Vehicles are target #1
RECOMMENDAIONS FOR DOGFACE
1. Dig in deep, but never wide.
2. Dig in in the places with additional protection (tree) or with obstacles for enemy artillery (hill,railwau embarkment)
3. Dig several positions, join its after in the trench (if enemy allow you to do this)
4. Do not concentrate many people in one shelter - no more 2-3
5. For rest and cover to dig a grave. Yes, a grave with steps (on the photo) for two. While the first on position, the second rests in the grave, then change.
6. Evacuation point must be maximally hidden, to make a pathway and the hole for aid. In the hole only combat medic have to work, you shouldn't be there.
7. Do not bring with you neither too much ammunitions nor any other supply - its betrays you. Get out the trash - bury even cigarette butts.
8. Prepare good off-road jeep, take away all superflous, take away lights and give NV device to the driver. Let he stays in 5 km from your positions. This will save most of your WIAs.
9. Ammunition and supply delivers when jeep drives to take WIAs or if you have a need in resupply. Two days reserve of ammunition and supply for comany have to be always near the jeep. 
10. BMPs and BTRs are also have to be in the rear, dug in deeply and disguished or hidden. They drive to the battle only and dont's carry people! Your trucks you can shot out yourself, thus will be less victims. But better hand over its to artillerists. 
11. Comms, steady encriptes comms and interaction with tanks and artillery. Infantry finds targets, recons ajust arty with drones, arty fires. But artillerists are people too and they also primary target for the enemy. They will not stand-by continuously and they also have a limit of ammunition and supply. 
12. Do not deploy on infantry positions ATGMs or MANPADs. Deployits aside or behind, but never on positions. If this stuff works at least once, your position will grounded.  
13. Most important!!!! The time for supply it's twilight (dawn or dusk). Safe time you will understand yourself.  And do this with jeeps with engine volume no more 2,5 l
14. Despite on written above, the war is dictating own rules. At this war the best are speed and mobility. And remember - they don't know how much of you, until you expose yourself. And during this time eliminate as more of orcs as possible, while they will be probe. Best way - to shot, when you see the enemy, and not hear his bullets. In this way they check your nerves. When the come close, try to kill as more as possible in order they will not call or adjust own artillery, because without accurate adjustment their arty is skew and only something random can hit your positin.   
 
The "grave with steps" for R&R
 

Their drill and locker layouts will be up to scratch at least 😉

RU started to feel pain of NATO Arty
 

So, Ukrainans instead to gather 5 millions $ for three Bayraktars for a week, gathered 6 millions $ for three days, so Serhiy Prytula fund will order four TB2 Bayraktars
But Back-and-Alive fund suddenly strikes back!  In this day they claimed about finishing a gathering of 8,5 millions $ for ordering of 10 UKR PD-2 UAV complexes of UKRSPETSSYSTEMS company (one PD-2 complex is control station and two UAVs), so 20 PD-2 UAVs soon will target Russian logistic hubs and artillery positions in deep rear for our PzH2000 or HIMARS. Reportedly UAvs already ordered and probably partially produced.
PD-2 was developed in 2020 as deep modernization of PD-1, which already use in UKR units (mostly in recon battalions). PD-2 can fly up to 220 km under operator control or up to 1000 km on preset route or 10 hours on 5000 m of ceiling. It equipped with thermal camera with 5x zoom and day camera 30x zoom, both are gyrostabilzed. Except optic equipment it can carry up to 3 kg of bombs load (2-3 RKG-1600, for example), so can be used as light bomber, but with more long range, than octocopter R18, using for strikes.
 
 

Russian propaganda pearls:
23rd of June. In red circle a number of destroyed UKR artillery/mortar systems

24th of June.

3002 - 2088 = 914 artillery systems for one day!