Offshoot
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Posts posted by Offshoot
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In addition, are their server admins able to see what files are accessed by which person? If they are, how come no audits identified him as accessing this info over several months?
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4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I know it's impossible to get any sort of statistic sense from watching videos about how common something is/isn't, but I sure do feel like I've seen more videos of 5+ Russian soldier surrenders than I have since the Kharkiv offensive. Here's what was probably the better part of a platoon or perhaps what remained of a platoon:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/12l02rd/more_caputured_ruzzian_pows/
Steve
Apparently the number of Russians contacting the I Want to Live line spiked in March: for example, https://english.nv.ua/nation/record-number-of-russian-soldiers-used-ukraine-s-surrender-hotline-in-march-news-50316158.html - "“In March, we essentially broke a record – more than 3,000 appeals, which is twice as many as in 2022,” said Matvienko."
Self-reporting by the Ukrainians of course and how many of those contacts went on to actually surrender is another story.
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10 minutes ago, billbindc said:
No...the journalists are doing their job and in the process have probably moved the case forward more quickly.
My comment about the journalists was not based on their moral position but their legal one, as per this for example (https://www.legalzoom.com/articles/can-a-journalist-be-forced-to-reveal-confidential-sources)
"Can a journalist be forced to reveal confidential sources? The answer appears to be no...as long as that journalist is willing to go to jail."
I'm guessing the FBI had contacted the WP before the paper hit the stands.
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1 hour ago, billbindc said:
There's a guy right now working on a US military base who is realizing that the entire apparatus of the US government is about to land on him:
He's certainly going to be getting the attention he craved, though this time he will not be in control.
I'm mystified why this kid has gone to the press (I assume he approached them rather than the WP found him). Given the choice of lying low and pleading ignorance or going to the authorities, he instead goes to the press, says he was the only one who believed the documents were real, and mounts a strange defense of his friend - he is a God-fearing man and isn't like Snowden. Further, he states he is going to assist an assumed criminal by not identifying him before he is found.
A couple of WP journalists might be preparing themselves for a few weeks in jail too.
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22 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:
And the leaked documents are from what, february? How could they replenish their stocks of missiles in 2 months? If true, this isn't such a great timing just before a major offensive.
You would have to look for dates on the leaked documents themselves because the original leak started back in October, with wider dissemination occurring only recently - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/10/leaked-secret-us-defense-documents-circulated-by-gamers
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An interesting article on the drone arms race and the changing tactical conditions for drone use in Ukraine. It's based on interviews with only three drone operators but they certainly have experience:
"They’re starting to die’: fears Ukraine’s drone supremacy may soon be over. Frontline drone operators say Russia is close to countering their most popular models – setting off a race to find replacements" - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/10/in-war-there-are-no-emotions-ukraine-drone-squads-bakhmut
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
A good summary article of Girkin's recent rapid fire actions which are crossing the line between fake treason (i.e. critical of Putin's government) and real treason (i.e. setting up the makings of an insurgency). As ISW or someone else pointed out, it's unclear who Girkin's patron is, but whomever it is must be extremely powerful.
Steve
Vlad Vexler has an analysis of a letter Dugin wrote about Prigozhin where he essentially takes Prigozhin's side against Girkin. In it Vlad comments that Prigozhin has 0% support within Russia whereas Girkin could actually call on a following of Z-radicals (potentially 10-20% of the population). Perhaps Girkin does have a patron(s), but it is also possible that his "patron" are those masses of nationalists that Putin needs to keep onside, especially as he attempts to shift society to encourage more people to become nationalists.
Video should start where more specific discussion about Girkin begins:
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
BMP lay down suppressive fire on the trench. Not just a few shots, but constant attention. Tanks 1 and 2 would drive to the treeline as they did, but Tank 2 would have stayed on the near side of the treeline to engage the same trench from "behind" while Tank 1 engaged from the "front". I'd also have moved a squad of infantry to the treeline behind the tanks. They would move towards the trench from trees and, at some point, taken over from the tanks.
Surely tank 2's job was to protect tank 1's left flank? Although they weren't shown, I don't think the trench on the cross-point of the T was the only Russian position they were worried about (are the Ukrainians suppressing a third in the distance with artillery?). At the end, tank 1 gets close enough to the trench that it could easily have come under fire from the position tank 2 is suppressing.
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Those dastardly Kadyrovites had a master plan all along.
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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Both are under a lot of stress/strain to get HE rounds to the front where they are needed. Every smoke shell that is speculatively moved to a location and stored in case there's a good use for it is taking the place of an HE round that will be used.
Reminds me of a recent video where the guys unloading the mortar shells don't know what the smoke rounds are and/or aren't happy to see them. In the video there seems to be quite a pile of them (I assume the ones with the red stripe; the video should start at the right timestamp)
It is more long form and it has very few explosions, but I found the whole video interesting as a portrait of the nitty-gritty of the day-to-day business of the war in Ukraine.
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In an intercepted private conversation, Russian elite freak out, cry into their cups and wonder about an uncertain future and how they can save their own skins and as much wealth as possible. They have some choice things to say about Putin along the way.
And some analysis of the conversation and the wider context (it has good closed captions)
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7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
What strikes me again and again and again... Russia goes into these situations without any AT capability at all. Not even RPG-7 in evidence. Not only is that a bad idea in case the Ukrainians have armor in support, but it also means less punch to take enemy positions.
Ignore this, I see now it has been covered already.
I'm pretty sure that near the beginning of the first video a Russian fires what looks like an RPG at the trench line and it ends up exploding on a tree. Still not much but because of the way they used it they didn't have it when armour did turn up.
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An interesting and well-referenced article based on a post by a pro-Russian blogger (https://t.me/rusengineer/612) saying that Ukraine is preparing to mount a kamikaze drone assault involving thousands of drones (at least continuous waves of drones until positions are destroyed) - https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/03/24/russia-braces-for-attack-by-50000-ukrainian-kamikaze-drones-seeks-shotguns/amp/
Currently it is just chatter of course and probably exaggerated, but it does touch on some points discussed here, such as the use of drone "swarms" and how Ukraine will breach Russian defences.
The article fosuses on racing (FPV) drones, which are cheap and mass produced:
Quote...the racing drone industry produces something like 100,000 FPV drones a month, which would cost something like $50 million in total. The last batch of military equipment alone from the U.S. was valued at $400m so hundreds of thousands more FPVs are affordable and probably available.
The limiting factors are having sufficient operators and control channel congestion:
QuoteWhile there are certainly hundreds or even thousands of FPV attack drones in play, 50,000 would mean attacks on an unprecedented scale. As Russian Engineer notes, the need for one operator per drone, and the fact that there are only so many control channels available, means that there would only be a few drones per kilometer of front at a time – but waves of them could keep coming until they destroyed every target.
Among other things, the Russian blogger suggests an immediate response would be to arm infantry with shotguns.
If nothing else, it provides a view from the other side and highlights something that is concerning the Russians; given the spate of videos of drone attacks shown here recently it is understandable.
The article also links to a Facebook post from the end of January by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about setting up dedicated drone "shock companies" (translated by Google):
QuoteThe world's first UAV strike companies are being formed
The creation of shock companies was approved at the Headquarters by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / CinC AF of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny. Together with the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the State Special Forces, within the framework of the "Army of Drones" project, the Ministry of Digital has created a Coordination Headquarters with key ministries and services for the full implementation of the project. This is necessary in order to implement a number of key reforms and scale up the production of UAVs in order to provide them to the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
The most professional servicemen who will lead the shock companies have already been selected. Each of them will receive drones and ammunition, Starlink and other necessary equipment to defeat the enemy.
The main partner for the training of shock companies is the Boryviter Military School.
We do everything to provide soldiers with modern technologies
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9 minutes ago, sburke said:
Video of it:
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12 minutes ago, JonS said:
Kind of weird to telegraph it, unless they're so confident that they feel they can taunt the Russians "we're coming for you, and there's nothing you can do about it"
Could be to stir the pot after "On Monday, Prigozhin published a letter to the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, saying Ukraine aimed to cut off Wagner’s forces from Russia’s regular troops." (also from the Guardian feed)
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3 hours ago, dan/california said:
Long article, fairly grim conclusions, though I doubt many people on the thread will be surprised by any of them. Xi is obsessed with Taiwan and pushing the U.S. out of the western Pacific. A new cold war with China seems inevitable, and a hot war over Taiwan by no means unlikely. There are parts of the Chinese government that understand this is a terrible idea, but they are very much not the ones in charge.
The cold war could already be here:
Qantas warns about interference by the ‘Chinese military’ in the South China Sea - https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/qantas-warns-about-interference-by-the-chinese-military-in-the-south-china-sea/news-story/40ff6a6a66408d666565085c5abf5d86
Likely a direct response to AUKUS and Australia ordering nuclear submarines from the US.
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Whatever the loss ratio might be, it may have paid dividends given the ISW's latest report on the substantial reduction of Russian offensive operations over the past few days. Now this thread can debate how many soldiers Russia has for defense and how many Ukraine has for any upcoming counter-attack - https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-15-2023
QuoteThe overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Joint Press Center of the Tavriisk Defense Forces, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, stated on March 15 that Russian offensive actions have decreased significantly over the last week and noted that daily Russian ground attacks have decreased from 90 to 100 attacks per day to 20 to 29 per day.
The overall Wagner Group offensive on Bakhmut additionally appears to be nearing culmination. Ukrainian military sources have noted a markedly decreased number of attacks in and around Bakhmut, particularly over the last few days.
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23 minutes ago, chrisl said:
One of the first things that struck me is that Russia has so little ISR over the access to Bakhmut that drone teams can go into Bakhmut for the day, direct a bunch of fire, then go home for dinner and a bath. Ukraine may be suffering casualties on the line, but they're also not even close to being in a desperate situation there.
The video with the reporter Nastya reinforces that. Those guys were leaving that mortar emplaced in one spot for a long time without a lot of concern for CB or being spotted by drones. And that mortar looked rock steady on firing - they've had some time to get it settled in. They probably are able to dial in fixed reference points over time and it helps with both their conservation of shells and their ability to avoid detection. Get coordinates and hit them with only a few rounds fired.
Here's another video about a mortar team from a different unit in Bakhmut. They say that they can be in one position for a day or two but that it depends - Russian artillery can respond quickly but it isn't strong or accurate. And as per the hromadske video, it also depends on Ukraine maintaining a constant supply of drones because they are still losing them regularly.
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Done don?
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4 hours ago, sross112 said:
How did the UK, France and Spain renegotiate their role in the world with themselves?
In addition to what others have said, the UK had a soft empire for quite a while after the real one faded away. At least they pretended they were still great and indulged in large quantities of nostalgia.
The King is still the head of state of 15 countries, as Town and Country dutifully reminds us - https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/tradition/g41501895/what-countries-does-king-charles-iii-reign-over/
Until the Australians upset the apple cart, the UK (England) got to remind all the oiks who was best at the Commonwealth games every 4 years - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Commonwealth_Games_medal_table
And even now the proms (an annual series of classical performances in London) concludes with rousing singalongs to Land of Hope and Glory and Rule, Britannia, despite discontent in some circles given the damage they did to the colonised countries and people.
Throw in Brexit with it's longings for a lost Britain and you could say that the UK is still renegotiating it's post-empire place in the world.
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9 hours ago, Haiduk said:
If you have a "luck" to became infantryman-rifleman of not so cool brigade like 93rd or other, you have enough chances to turned out in the trench since 7-10-14 of symbolic training
Today's Hromadske video is on the 93rd in Bakhmut and starts by talking to a man who was mobilized on Jan 8 and has just been transferred to Bakhmut after training. The topic of experience and the mobilized is a fairly prominent theme throughout.
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Whoever they are, they all look like they are fresh from the outfitter and drycleaner, down to the brand new yellow tape.
If they really are the volunteer corps, they must know they aren't getting out right? It just seems like it would be a useless demonstration at this point.
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2 hours ago, Peregrine said:
My trip to Hobbiton is sounding a bit shaky. Sounds like they have an Orc problem too.
You'll be fine. I'm not far from Hobbiton and there are no orcs to report. I think someone has been looking in a palantir too long.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
The leaker dude must have bought nitro on Discord for those sweet animated emojis:
"According to Lueckenhoff, he had been identified by a member of an internet group he led on Discord, a gaming messaging platform, and a “social media platform” – presumably a reference to Discord – handed over Teixeira’s billing address and other details to the FBI. The FBI then put his driver’s licence photo in a lineup of similar photos to the witness, who identified him." - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/14/jack-teixeira-charged-pentagon-leaks-espionage-act