Offshoot
-
Posts
665 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Posts posted by Offshoot
-
-
6 hours ago, JonS said:
Yeah, I did read the thread, but that graph has exactly the same issue: the info in it *might* the sanctions aren't working, but it could also mean they're working really well. That's the problem with using proxy measures, especially with something as inherently fungible as money.
Indeed. That is why the original source for the data is better than a cut and paste tweet. It includes a section describing why sanctions assessment is hard and others that discuss their methodology and limitations.
-
15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
In his thread he says "The city is almost deserted save for the odd, usually older, civilian who refuses to leave."
The Kyiv Independent has a recent article talking to civilians still there. It makes for some grim reading in a way, but still interesting, especially in the context of discussions in this thread about what will happen with the civilian population if Ukraine takes back the Donbass.
-
25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Interesting to see an "O" mark on the knocked out tank at the end of the clip. I haven't seen one of those in a while.
I counted 8 vehicles in this clip, 3 being tanks and at least 3 IFVs. Not sure about the other 2.
Steve
The Ukrainians got a second Russian Arctic TOR M2DT. It was curious to see a "V" on it. Maybe these systems have been operating in Ukraine for a while or are they still marking vehicles this way?
-
32 minutes ago, panzermartin said:
That's an interesting observation, I hadn't noticed. The original tweet is to blame because it makes a conclusion with a chart not based on a fixed number and then claims "increase in chip imports". Why she did that?
She pulled the data from another report - https://www.4freerussia.org/effectiveness-of-u-s-sanctions-targeting-russian-companies-and-individuals/
To be fair to her, in the linked thread she also posted another graph from the report showing number of transactions, which is probably closer to actual numbers of electronic components than just value.
Again though, there are too many variables to draw firm conclusions, for example, maybe more but smaller in quantity transactions were made.
Take the case of China, which is now their main supplier by far: the value of exports to Russia went up over 2.5 times but the number of transactions went up by only twice. Given the numbers involved, I would guess that price gouging does not account for all the increase in value.
-
-
21 minutes ago, Huba said:
@Beleg85 Look up my post just above.
In the meantime the floodgates of equipment are opening unbelievably quick:
This is a Mirror "exclusive" quoting "a senior defence source", so take it with a grain of salt. As the information comes from an "insider", no other, reputable media sources have picked it up.
Apparently, the UK defence minister will update parliament on Monday, so wait until then - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-has-ambition-send-tanks-ukraine-pm-sunak-tells-zelenskiy-2023-01-14/
On the subject of Apaches though, this thread has discussed before lessons that Western military will take from the Ukraine war. Some of these are already being acted on - https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/01/new-apache-trains-to-fights-on-the-modern-battlefield/
-
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
I also don't see Russia having the resources to keep its economy and war going at the same same time. It's probably incapable of doing either for much longer.
On the topic, new Perun
-
27 minutes ago, sburke said:
The Kyiv Independent had an article on the Skala Battalion a few days ago too, with a bit more tactical info and a more sober take on how Bakhmut is doing - https://kyivindependent.com/national/hell-in-high-definition-inside-front-line-aerial-unit-surveilling-battle-of-bakhmut
This also went together with a thread by NOËL in association with the Yahoo author featuring video footage -
-
Russia found some new infantry.
Russian fleet loses another two flagships - intelligence source - https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3647091-russian-fleet-loses-another-two-flagships-intelligence-source.html
"According to available information, most of the high-quality components [needed for repair] are missing due to Russian defense factories being unable to produce them."
"It should be noted that the Admiral Kuznetsov is the only aircraft-carrying cruiser of the Northern Fleet, while the Admiral Nakhimov is one of the three missile cruisers of the Northern Fleet."
-
Preliminary reports of another long-range strike against a possibly large concentration of Russian soldiers in Havrylivka Druha, Kherson oblast, near the entrance to Crimea.
-
31 minutes ago, Taranis said:
Vladimir Putin orders a ceasefire in Ukraine on January 6-7
Source : Le Monde
A unilateral ceasefire for Christmas?
The grinch in me says they are only doing this so they can point out how the Ukrainians are unholy satanists when there is an inevitable 'violation'.
-
23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Seems like major development. What is source?
An article about Bakhmut from usually well-connected reporter. Heavy casualties on both sides, but author states that Wagner creeping offensive seem to be loosing impetus:
It ties in with recent comments by Prigozhin:
"In Artemovsk [Bakhmut], every house has become a fortress. Our guys sometimes fight for more than a day over one house. Sometimes they fight for weeks over one house. And behind this house, there is still a new line of defence, and not one. And how many such lines of defence are there in Artemovsk? Five hundred would probably not be an exaggeration.” - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/03/ukraine-wagner-leader-counts-cost-as-russian-offensive-stalls-in-bakhmut
Probably as close to a climb down or admittance of defeat as you are going to get.
-
36 minutes ago, pintere said:
One thing that was fascinating to read was how the Russians got spooked by the devastating outcome of their first attempt to enter the city and then just settled into siege mode after that, even though they were just up against basically armed civilians that could’ve probably been overwhelmed with a determined effort.
In Combat Mission there’ve been a number of scenarios I’ve played where I gave up a scenario due to high losses, only to find afterwards that the enemy defence was far weaker than expected and probably ready to fold if the attack had been pressed!
So here we have a great real-life example of how aggressive probing really is key for a competent army in order to take advantage of situations that might otherwise have been passed up.
I assume the Russian forces were also resigned to letting it be and bypassing Sumy because their focus at the time was on reaching Kyiv as fast as possible. It would be interesting to know what impact Sumy had on stalling the push on Kyiv.
-
47 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
I believe they did during 2014, there's several accounts of RUS arty hitting UKR units based off cellular use.
The difference of course is that UKR learned from their mistakes, making cellular use and social media foot-printing deeply anathema in the defense forces.
Except it also possibly caused the missile strike on the foreign volunteer barracks in March. I read a personal account of a more experienced volunteer who was so appalled at what was happening there that he left before the strike.
-
A short article on the defence of Sumy by largely ad hoc citizen groups at the start of the war. Zelenskiy called Sumy a bone in the throat of the Russians in his New Year speech.
-
Some details on the tactics of Ukrainian tanks used for indirect fire
-
5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Which reminds me, there were reports a few days ago of Ukrainian forces getting into Kreminna's outskirts. Anybody hear anything since?
The only reports I have seen are about comments by Haidai on Telegram.
The Guardian says: "The regional governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, said fighters in part of the city controlled by Russian command were forced to retreat to Rubizhne, a town a few miles to the south-east, as a result of Ukrainian military pressure." Also that Haidai says the Russians are heavily reinforcing the area. - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/27/ukraine-says-its-forces-are-close-to-recapturing-key-eastern-city-of-kreminna
The Kyiv Post reports him as saying "The Russian army has relocated the military command from Kreminna to Rubizhne, Luhansk Oblast." - https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1607441610605842433
-
31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
That is my take on it as well.
On top of the support for Ukraine's moral and legal positions that they should not have to compromise on anything, US officials, including in Congress, have repeatedly vocalized Russia is not serious about negotiations. Just a day or two ago I heard this out of someone high up in the Pentagon.
Where we should get worried is if the Russian position hasn't changed and you see Western officials pressing Ukraine to negotiate. That would be a bad sign. So far, none of that from anybody that matters.
The West has finally caught onto the Russian way of negotiating:
1. Demand everything under the sun
2. Offer no opportunity for a fair and equitable settlement
3. Wait out the opponent until they suggest giving in to some of the demands
4. Accept less than demanded, but more than is fair
5. Walk away with more than Russia started with
Russia's main problem with using this strategy is it requires a certain degree of fear on the part of the opponent/s. In this case, Russia has so clearly lost the war nobody (that matters) thinks Ukraine needs to give up anything.
Steve
6. Renege on the agreement at a time of their choosing
-
37 minutes ago, Taranis said:
That must be the reason for all the join the army to buy phones and sausages adverts
-
An article on the development of Delta software by the Ukrainians for visualizing the battle field alongside the development of the Ukrainian armed forces from it's Soviet beginnings.
"Delta software developed to help collect and disseminate information about enemy’s movements" - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/18/our-weapons-are-computers-ukrainian-coders-aim-to-gain-battlefield-edge
"That change has been a struggle. The Ukrainian army grew out of its Soviet predecessors, and many of its older officers have been shaped by that experience. In 2020, the generals even shut down the Aerorozvidka unit; it was only restored by the defence ministry as the innovation centre months before the Russian all-out invasion.
The Donbas front is the last to establish its own situational awareness centre, in part because of resistance within the army, and as a result it has suffered most from lack of coordination and friendly fire, officials from the innovation centre argued. “It’s been total chaos,” one official said.
“I don’t think they’re quite there yet,” said Nick Reynolds, a land warfare analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “There are some centres of excellence within the Ukrainian armed forces, but it’s not blanket. The military culture imposed under the Soviet Union casts a very long shadow.”
However, Reynolds said the Ukrainians were far ahead of Russian forces in making their forces more connected and agile. “Ultimately, the Russian side has not fundamentally changed their structures or practices. They have some level of technological enablement, but on the human level they are still very Soviet.”"
-
25 minutes ago, akd said:
I’m beginning to think there might be something wrong with this country…
"this propaganda video tells Russian men the real reason why they should sign up to fight in Ukraine: so they can buy their teenage daughter a new smartphone"
What does he mean "buy"?
-
20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
I would add a nuance to this - it all comes down to killing the right Russians. This is not simple exhaustion through attrition, this is corrosive warfare. It basically means killing the critical nodes and connectors within the Russian war machine faster than they can be replaced.
Regarding the right Russians, a recent overview article on Bakhmut described the situation with Wagner - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/12/8/7379743/
"Wagnerites, who are stationed on her part of the front, are composed of two groups: the well-trained ones and former convicts.
The first ones act as group commanders. They plan operations efficiently and precisely, track the movement of their soldiers well, and encrypt radio communications.
The latter are dumped onto the front after 2-3 weeks of poor training and used as cannon fodder.
"A captured Wagnerite told us: you killed 50 people today, 50 more were brought to replace them by the evening. If you killed 100 – they [Russians – ed.] would bring 100 more. They [Russian command – ed.] try to keep exactly 900 people in the assault unit. They [Wagnerites – ed.] are told: "Manpower is not a problem.""
A few strikes have recently targeted reported Wagner bases. Hopefully they have been hitting the commander cadre.
-
Wagner taking a pounding?
Svatove
Kadiivka
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63933132
Also "The Armed Forces hit 9 enemy control points "
-
Russia has possibly received more UAVs from Iran.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by Offshoot
The UK MoD assessment is "...it is unlikely that Russia has sufficient uncommitted troops in the area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough."
This attack included elements of the same unit that complained about their commanders after heavy losses last November, so it seems nothing has changed - https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/07/elite-russian-marine-unit-slams-military-leaders-for-baffling-battle-losses-a79303
There was discussion here recently about the impact of Russian losses on the mindset of Russians generally, but I wonder what the impact is specifically on Russian frontline soldiers (not counting Wagner around Bakhmut given their policies on refuseniks). Do I remember rightly that there were recent reports of soldiers around Vuhledar refusing to attack? I thought it was mentioned in this thread recently but I couldn't find it.
Retired Australian general Mick Ryan on "how Ukraine will seek out where Russia's next offensives might occur" - https://mickryan.substack.com/p/divining-russias-main-effort-in-2023