Offshoot
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Posts posted by Offshoot
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A couple of videos of drone teams, one using the Baba Yaga and another in Kherson. They show the communication between recon drone and attack drone teams.
Ukrainians training soldiers on semi-automatic shotguns as a counter to drones - Ukrainian military practices to counter drones with guns
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Given the recent discussion on weapon systems, here is an article on the Patriot, its success in Ukraine and how this is increasing demand for it and perhaps increasing its longevity
How Patriot proved itself in Ukraine and secured a fresh future
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3 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Turtle-tank %)
Video of it (from the 2 minute mark)
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Is this normal? In both instances it looks like over 20 personnel disembark from a single vehicle. I didn't know you could even fit that many on a tank. From recent videos the Russians have lost a lot of equipment over the past weeks, so are men plentiful but vehicles not so much now?
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5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Do they have a vodka detector board? Because I would think that would be quite useful!
Steve
Vodka is just ethanol plus water, so yes
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1 hour ago, chrisl said:
As far as I've seen so far, both sides are doing all this with a very conventional sensor set (Vis/IR cameras and GPS, mostly) and and haven't really ventured into RF or chemotaxis.
I just looked on AliExpress and ethanol detector boards can be had for a few dollars a piece. Sensors for methanol and antifreeze might be a bit more expensive.
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2 hours ago, Kinophile said:
Major (c. 90) drone strike against Russian Su-34 airfield.
Possibly more than 1 airfield, there's mention of 3, but not confident.
Claims of 6 destroyed and 8 damaged aircraft
Recent satellite pictures of the airfield
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The HUR making some bold claims
‘No choice’: Ukraine eyes Kerch bridge in Crimea for drone attack
QuoteSenior officials from Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service indicate it is plotting a third attempt on the bridge, after two previous attempts to blow it up, claiming its destruction is “inevitable”.
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The HUR thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”.
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Ukraine planned to strike more Russian targets, Skybytskyi claimed, with undercover agents playing a part. Some were “Russians with Ukrainian roots”; others were non-ideological Russians recruited in exchange for payments. The “pool” was so large the HUR could pick and choose candidates for sabotage operations, he said.
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The manufacturer of the Caesar is talking it up and saying that it's characteristics are helping it to survive better on the modern battle field compared to other self-propelled guns
In Ukraine, ‘shoot-and-scoot’ tactics helping Caesars survive
QuoteUkraine has lost less than 10% of the truck-mounted Caesar howitzers it received from France and Denmark, with greater mobility resulting in a higher survival rate than for some other self-propelled or towed systems, according French manufacturer KNDS Nexter.
Losses for some other self-propelled or towed systems in Ukraine’s war with Russia amount to nearly 30%, the company said in a statement to Defense News, without providing specifics...
“Use of drones and loitering munitions has become a real threat 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the front, where the Caesar operates,” Nexter said in the statement. “Its light weight and ability to leave its position in less than a minute to avoid counter-battery fire are therefore major assets.”
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1 hour ago, ASL Veteran said:
People tend to believe in things that reinforce their worldviews and disbelieve things that don't fit within that worldview. Everyone has a weakness that can be exploited by someone else.
It's ironic that you exactly prove your point by posting an outrage-farming video by someone with a clear political bias watching a video by someone else with a political bias (who misrepresents what people say and asks leading questions) rather than actual data. I will not discuss US politics as I am not American, it is off-topic and it will just lead to a ****-show, so consider this post in the vein of how to form evidence-based opinions, which has been a central point of discussion over the past few pages.
Here is an actual study on this topic. Note how they outline their methodology and openly discuss the limitations of the study. You are also free to decide for yourself if these are meaningful when spread out over the entire population (though you would really need to look more closely at local situations given the way the electoral system works).
WHO LACKED PHOTO ID IN 2020?: An Exploration of the American National Election Studies
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Looking at the news cycle, Havana syndrome is having another moment in the limelight. Maybe it is like flesh-eating disease - case numbers remain relatively stable year on year but every now and then the media picks up on it, starts feeding on itself and then mass reports it like it is a new thing come to get us all.
As it happens, a scientific report (not clear if it has been peer-reviewed and officially published yet) and a literature review have just been released too (March 2024) if anyone is interested.
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Wildberries is like the Amazon of Russia. It could be just a demonstration of what could happen, business as usual, or perhaps someone didn't get the memo about treading carefully. That would back up the quote above from the NYT about tensions over migration policy inside Putin’s security establishment.
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38 minutes ago, dan/california said:
All details aside, the most important thing is that Putin is losing control of the narrative. That could matter.
Yeah, which is why I was interested in the origin of the conspiracy theory. If it started in Russia and becomes prevalent there, what does it say about Russians' trust in Putin's administration? If Gerashchenko and Nexta, who aren't exactly reliable sources, are feeding grist, then it is just icing.
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2 hours ago, billbindc said:
The downsides to a political regime held together by fear, duct tape and conspiracy theories...
Is it really a conspiracy theory started and doing the rounds in Russia though or is it Gerashchenko "extrapolating" from a theory put out by Nexta? Nexta don't seem to be attributing the theory to someone else. If it is from Nexta, it will be interesting to see if it takes hold in Russia and the impact it has on the sale of blue sweaters there.
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5 minutes ago, Kraft said:
I find it odd why single me out, as it is still discussed by others and it was my first comment on the matter.
It's possible you were confused for another poster whose name is five letters and starts with "kra", but that's just a theory.
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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Dear Gawd, please tell me we are talking about this:
Disgustingly hypocritical generic crap. A day and a half might not even be considered regular for this.
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1 minute ago, The_Capt said:
Then why not exploit all of the other splodey stuff that has been happening for two years in the same manner.
A possible explanation is that Putin was holding off until after the election. Many posts have been written here about the societal effects of a mobilization and the negative political impacts. Now Putin is secure, an emotional attack on Russia helps to underwrite the patriotic mobilisation.
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Interrogating terrorist suspects on camera by the side of the road and posting it to Telegram just a few hours after the attack. They can clearly upload faster than they can drive.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1771489334979379316
QuoteMeanwhile, a video of the interrogation of one of the suspected terrorists is going viral in Russian media. He says that he received half a million rubles for the shooting.
They don't specify who paid him though.
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7 minutes ago, chrisl said:
Looks like it probably hit the vehicle anyway - the second one looks like it's coming in right behind and the vehicle from the first one is on fire, so it switches to follow the one on the road.
Yeah, the auto-translate says that inertia carried the drone into the grad. Given both cases of changing target, I'm curious if the software has been tuned to prioritise moving targets and if that is a good thing (e.g. breaking off to chase a soldier rather than going after the high-value vehicle). And also, if this is the case and they become more common, what contraptions the Russians will come up with to try and spoof the drones - cope-cages could be joined by cope-carousels or carriage footmen.
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More auto-targeting drones, including going after moving targets. In the first case, however, it switches targets at the last moment.
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15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Serhiy Sternenko issued this video as first example of autonomous aiming and announced 50 millions UAH fundrising for these drones. For this day a half of money already was donated.
Do you have a direct link for the fundraiser?
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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
I picture a flowchart where every single if/then scenario eventually leads to autonomous as the counter.
Claimed to be one of the first videos of an autonomous targeting drone. Certainly the EW looks to affect the video feed relatively far from the target, but we don't know for sure that the drone that hits the target is the same as the one at the start of the video. Either it's legit, was an incredibly lucky hit despite the EW, or the video has been edited to make it look like it is autonomous.
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47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
The appearance of it being an election are deliberate, just as plastic fruit in a bowel is designed to look like real fruit.
Ironically (and aptly), plastic fruit in a bowel would look more like real fruit than actual fruit by that stage, but would still stink nonetheless.
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6 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Problems in a medical system could be from many causes. The “Soviet legacy” has become an easy-button for western analysts to explain pretty much everything.
The article I linked to about the Ukrainian medical system was written by Ukrainians, based on interviews with Ukrainians, and published by a Ukrainian media outlet.
6 hours ago, The_Capt said:The Soviet medical system, for example, had its strengths and weaknesses but there was nothing inherently “wrong” with it (for example the Soviet Union had lower doctor to patient ratios than the US). It was designed for a different baseline, much like pretty much everything else in the Soviet system. The Soviet system was by-design aimed at supporting mass. So failures in the current UA system buckling under the weight of casualties cannot all be thrown at the feet of Soviet legacy, when that legacy was designed specifically not to buckle under massive casualties.
We shouldn't confuse the Soviet civilian medical system with the military one. And we shouldn't assume that design and application are the same things. The main aspect of the article, however, isn't that the soldiers aren't getting treated but that they aren't getting discharged or paid due compensation as a result of bureaucracy, corruption, and inefficiency. It is easy for the system not to buckle under massive casualties when it denies those casualties exist in the first place. We have also heard plenty of first hand reports by Russian personnel about how they receive no treatment for wounds and are thrown back into the fight.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
To add some nuance to the numbers, note that the big change in democracy to autocracy from 2010-2021 is due almost completely to ONE country, India. Also note that the numbers for liberal democracies have not declined greatly (map and 2nd table showing total populations - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/how-many-people-live-in-a-political-democracy-today/) despite Canada's best efforts.