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Offshoot

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Which reminds me, there were reports a few days ago of Ukrainian forces getting into Kreminna's outskirts.  Anybody hear anything since?

    The only reports I have seen are about comments by Haidai on Telegram.

    The Guardian says: "The regional governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, said fighters in part of the city controlled by Russian command were forced to retreat to Rubizhne, a town a few miles to the south-east, as a result of Ukrainian military pressure." Also that Haidai says the Russians are heavily reinforcing the area. - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/27/ukraine-says-its-forces-are-close-to-recapturing-key-eastern-city-of-kreminna

    The Kyiv Post reports him as saying "The Russian army has relocated the military command from Kreminna to Rubizhne, Luhansk Oblast."  - https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1607441610605842433

     

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    That is my take on it as well.

    On top of the support for Ukraine's moral and legal positions that they should not have to compromise on anything, US officials, including in Congress, have repeatedly vocalized Russia is not serious about negotiations.  Just a day or two ago I heard this out of someone high up in the Pentagon.

    Where we should get worried is if the Russian position hasn't changed and you see Western officials pressing Ukraine to negotiate.  That would be a bad sign.  So far, none of that from anybody that matters.

    The West has finally caught onto the Russian way of negotiating:

    1.  Demand everything under the sun

    2.  Offer no opportunity for a fair and equitable settlement

    3.  Wait out the opponent until they suggest giving in to some of the demands

    4.  Accept less than demanded, but more than is fair

    5.  Walk away with more than Russia started with

    Russia's main problem with using this strategy is it requires a certain degree of fear on the part of the opponent/s.  In this case, Russia has so clearly lost the war nobody (that matters) thinks Ukraine needs to give up anything.

    Steve

    6. Renege on the agreement at a time of their choosing

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Offshoot

    An article on the development of Delta software by the Ukrainians for visualizing the battle field alongside the development of the Ukrainian armed forces from it's Soviet beginnings.

    "Delta software developed to help collect and disseminate information about enemy’s movements" - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/18/our-weapons-are-computers-ukrainian-coders-aim-to-gain-battlefield-edge

    "That change has been a struggle. The Ukrainian army grew out of its Soviet predecessors, and many of its older officers have been shaped by that experience. In 2020, the generals even shut down the Aerorozvidka unit; it was only restored by the defence ministry as the innovation centre months before the Russian all-out invasion.

    The Donbas front is the last to establish its own situational awareness centre, in part because of resistance within the army, and as a result it has suffered most from lack of coordination and friendly fire, officials from the innovation centre argued. “It’s been total chaos,” one official said.

    “I don’t think they’re quite there yet,” said Nick Reynolds, a land warfare analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “There are some centres of excellence within the Ukrainian armed forces, but it’s not blanket. The military culture imposed under the Soviet Union casts a very long shadow.”

    However, Reynolds said the Ukrainians were far ahead of Russian forces in making their forces more connected and agile. “Ultimately, the Russian side has not fundamentally changed their structures or practices. They have some level of technological enablement, but on the human level they are still very Soviet.”"

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    I would add a nuance to this - it all comes down to killing the right Russians. This is not simple exhaustion through attrition, this is corrosive warfare.  It basically means killing the critical nodes and connectors within the Russian war machine faster than they can be replaced.

    Regarding the right Russians, a recent overview article on Bakhmut described the situation with Wagner - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/12/8/7379743/

    "Wagnerites, who are stationed on her part of the front, are composed of two groups: the well-trained ones and former convicts.

    The first ones act as group commanders. They plan operations efficiently and precisely, track the movement of their soldiers well, and encrypt radio communications.

    The latter are dumped onto the front after 2-3 weeks of poor training and used as cannon fodder.

    "A captured Wagnerite told us: you killed 50 people today, 50 more were brought to replace them by the evening. If you killed 100 – they [Russians – ed.] would bring 100 more. They [Russian command – ed.] try to keep exactly 900 people in the assault unit. They [Wagnerites – ed.] are told: "Manpower is not a problem.""

    A few strikes have recently targeted reported Wagner bases. Hopefully they have been hitting the commander cadre.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Offshoot

    5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

    Thanks for Mashkovets posts Zeleban, there is some of lost in translation probably but nonetheless it gives us a lot of insight, especially regarding Russian units. Am I reading things wrong or situation near Bakhmut becomes really dire in last days, even more than usual? Other accounts seem to corroborate Wagnerites crossed the road line and are closing in on main (third?) of UA defensive lines there.

    I'm not sure it clarifies your question, but here is a little more info on where Russians might be in Bakhmut. The post after the video geolocates the positions that were shelled.

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Offshoot

    8 hours ago, Anon052 said:

    And the time this Video was released is very suspicous. Just after Putin stating that the ukrainian army is executing their  men for desertion.

    This Video needs to be georeferenced, to see where it was taken.

    It is likely a narrative to counter the very recent reports of Russian blocking units killing fleeing mobiks. Not just "They do it too" but rather 'hard video evidence' versus merely reports.

    The funniest part was how she added that they were executed "most likely for refusing to follow orders", as if the drone could determine their motives.

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Huba said:

    This is pure gold, it's like they are actively trying to make their troops as miserable as possible.

     

    It's easy to imagine some people in Russia are not happy that their control of supply lines, and therefore their cut, is being bypassed and reduced by volunteer groups "parallel" importing. The thing that keeps the system oiled, corruption, is also the thing that trips them up at every step.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

    So why February?  Putin's forces were already in position for the better part of a month before February 23rd, but instead sat around freezing and consuming large amounts of supplies.  The speculation is that the Biden Admin's diplomatic offensive caused disruption to Putin's calculations and he held off until he was convinced attacking was still viable.

     

    I read an article a few days before the war started that essentially said it was now or "never" (unfortunately I can't find the article now). The Russian forces were in such a state that they either had to attack now or be withdrawn to be refitted. If they waited any longer, they would have been in no state to attack. At the time there were stories of Russian soldiers living in train stations buying their own food and selling their fuel. A personal account by an airborne soldier linked somewhere in this thread also attested to this.

    The diplomatic offensive very likely affected Putin and he may himself have been holding out hoping the west would give in. But in the end he had to use it or lose it (at least for a long time, as well as the initiative and a good amount of face). So Putin chose to use it.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Interesting... looks like Stremousov, the Russian appointed Deputy Governor of Kherson, was not killed in a road accident:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/kirill-stremousov-rise-fall-and-death-of-russia-installed-kherson-official

    Looks like his car was shot up before or after being blown up.  The combo suggests to me that he was hit by partisans of Ukrainian armed forces with some sort of AT weapon.  Whether they knew who was in the car or not is probably determined by who shot up the car.  Partisans probably knew, but a deep recon unit from the Army might have just got lucky.  My money is on it being a known target and he was intercepted.

    Steve

    The Guardian did a background piece on Stremousov. Given how he was behaving, it is still quite possible it was an inside job - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/kirill-stremousov-rise-fall-and-death-of-russia-installed-kherson-official

    "His murky death, whether indeed a genuine accident or the result of a Russian security services plan to get rid of an inconvenient loudmouth no longer useful to the authorities, will likely remain a mystery for the foreseeable future."

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Huba said:

    Iranian ambassador to Poland denied that Iran sold or intends to sell SRBMs to russia. He kept with the narrative that only small numbers of Shaheeds were sold, and only before the war. He also emphasized that Iran didn't recognize any of the territorial changes in Ukraine, including annexation of Crimea. Of course all of this has to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but at least on the declarative level Iran seems to be backtracking from supporting russia.

    Here's an article (in Polish, but Google translation is acceptable).

     

    The sale of weapons to Russia and their use in the war could also be causing divisions in Iran around foreign policy.

    "Row brews in Iran over use of its drones in Ukraine war by Russia" - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/07/row-brews-in-iran-over-use-of-its-drones-in-ukraine-war-by-russia

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    During several days two articles in NYT and WP with a sense "US must force Ukraine to negotiations with Russia"

    Add the Guardian but with a slightly different angle (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/05/ukraine-democracy-russia-zelenskiy-us-washington)

    "That means an urgent search for a diplomatic track. As Ukraine’s primary arms supplier and funder, Washington needs to call for immediate negotiations to begin that process.

    This doesn’t mean twisting Ukraine’s arm to accept Moscow’s demands – decisions of what to concede or not in any negotiations is up to Kyiv, not Washington.

    But the US could help diplomacy gain traction by immediately initiating its own direct talks with Russia on issues shaping bilateral relations between the nuclear giants..."

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Definitely worth watching!  Some tidbits I got from this:

    The thing that struck me was when he said getting intelligence was difficult because drones don't fly (for both sides) because of the weather. Perhaps this is obvious, but it is not something I had considered. Given the importance of drones in this war, I wonder how much this will impact the way it is fought for this period.

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