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Offshoot

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Posts posted by Offshoot

  1. 16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Indeed.  And as such then we should presume the timing is not accidental and is, instead, designed to effect a specific outcome.  The obvious reason to push the "Ukraine did it" is to increase political representation by the various groups that oppose supporting Ukraine ranging from pro-Russians to those simply angry about being denied access to cheap Russian gas.  I'm not well informed about what critical elections in Europe are in the near future, but it is probable that one or more are specifically being targeted.

    Assuming this is an FSB/GRU operation.

    Steve

    Slovakia on 30th September is a close run race and the result could affect their position on Ukraine.

  2. 4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

    However, are we sure that sense of common suffering and bleakness of life is not something desirable if one wages a war? Note that what is a society held by misery (good term, I preferred "community of suffering") in Western terms, can be very effective social glue of entire civilzation, that means if properly channelled and kept just below boiling point; so far Putin is good at the last part, I'll give him that.

    Again- apathy and misery are Russian ultimate trump cards, not weaknessess. They can go wild if played wrongly, but so far Putin is pretty skillfully operating on Russian phobias, massive historical traumas, lack of trust to each other and urge for greatness.

    Russians even have their own word for it that is not easily translated, toska (тоска). It encompasses more than just misery or melancholy and is considered by some a core part of Russian identity.

  3. 20 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

    this can't be real, in any culture, anywhere.  Please tell me this isn't real.  Please.

    I was in Moscow in the early 90s and saw a couple of people in the road who had been hit and no one stopped. Who knows how long they had been there. We were strongly dissuaded from helping by the Russians we were with because they were afraid we would also be hit, which would have been a real possibility.

    On the other hand, when I lived in London I saw a guy on crutches fall over in the middle of the road in front of an oncoming bus. Not one of the at least 10 people queued at the bus stop moved to help him.

  4. More on the area south of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian general staff are claiming they have taken Andriivka. According to DeepState, this area was being held by the beleaguered 72nd separate motor rifle brigade ( https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.4919/37.9550 ).

    Original source - https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0saPL1Cq3wL3kg9w8GeAJvQh4a2nT6ffYMvEpq1chakAH9bXeT29Y6G7Y21YEogSrl

    Google translate:

    Quote

    In the zone of responsibility of the operational-strategic group of troops "Khortytsia" in the Bakhmutsky direction, the enemy does not stop trying to break through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Bohdanivka. In turn, the Defense Forces of Ukraine had partial success in the Klishchiivka area during offensive operations. During the assault operations, they were successful and captured Andriivka in the Donetsk region, inflicting significant losses on the enemy in terms of manpower and equipment, and entrenched themselves at the achieved frontiers.

     

  5. 3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

     

    Claims to be video of tonights strike in Sebastopol. If true either the Ukrainians put two hits on the same bullseye, or there was something on that dry dock to generate a large secondary explosion. Could the Russians have put that sub in dry dock without removing its missiles?

     

    I imagine a dry dock would have a lot of gas equipment in it, but from the video it certainly sounds like a second missile coming in with a bit of delay on the sound.

  6. Rostov is right next to Ukraine so I can well believe that fuel is being appropriated at all levels towards the war. A producer and exporter of fuel should still be able to compensate, but I have no doubt there are multiple layers of corruption in the way.

    Unfortunately for Russia, Rostov is one of their highest producing regions - https://www.revistaespacios.com/a20v41n03/20410313.html
     

    Quote

     

    The Rostov Region has been ranked 2nd among Russian regions in the agricultural production for a long time, being one of the leaders in gross yield of grain, sunflower, and other crops. According to the results of the All-Russian Agricultural Census 2016, the Rostov Region ranked first among the regions of Russia in the harvest of oilseeds (Rostovstat, 2018). In 2018, the Rostov Region took the fifth place in the Russian Federation and the second place in the Southern Federal District in milk production, the region’s share in the national volume of milk production being 3.5%.

    Today, the share of agriculture in the Rostov Region in Russian agricultural production is 5%, and in the Southern Federal District – 30%. Thus, the Rostov Region is one of the main regions of the Russian Federation capable of ensuring food security of Russia. The national food security is currently based on the import substitution of important products such as vegetables and meat (Semenenko, Afanasieva and Kaplunova, 2018).

     

    Food shortages could lead to price rises and flour prices have helped to trigger revolutions before.

  7. A lightish article on the production of realistic decoys by a Ukrainian company:

    ‘A psychological weapon’: inside a Ukrainian factory making decoy kit - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/04/a-psychological-weapon-inside-a-ukrainian-factory-making-decoy-kit

    Quote

     

    Metinvest’s main shareholder is Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, who has backed the decoy project personally, a spokesperson said.

    The team is all volunteers, drawn from the payroll before February 2022. This ensures confidence in a group whose project makes them a target. “We have to be able to trust each other, we didn’t just hire people off the streets. We know these guys,” one says.

     

     

  8. 16 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

    In that second vid, what is that last munition that lands square on the group of guys? It looks tossed/thrown?

    At first I thought it was thrown too because it arcs and seems to originate from a guy who is in the right of frame (under the watermark), but if you watch it full screen you can clearly see it is a drone that comes in from the far right of the screen. And Carolus' post above shows the drone's view.

  9. 8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

    Hmm perhaps they provide some limited cover, but they still have holes and unprotected spaces. Not to mention pellets could penetrate tire. Even some wood cover would be better, and less nightmarish to remove when in need. I suppose some issues of satellite reconaissance or missile guidance were perhaps at play here.

    This is strategic bomber squadron, top nuke-wielding asset in the arsenal of global superpower...and they cover it with used tires. I mean, c'mon ;)... Imagine USAF suddenly covering their B-2's and B-52's with monster truck tires.

    Still, it is better than nothing, just how much better we don't know. But it clearly does show that Russia was in no way prepared, or perhaps never even expected, that Ukraine would bring the war to their territory.

    I wonder how prepared for this they are, assuming it isn't just psyops:

    Ukrainian-made missile able to hit targets 1,500 km inside Russia nearly ready - https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-will-be-able-to-hit-russian-targets-located-1-500-km-away-50350864.html

    Quote

    The Ukrainian military will soon be able to strike targets located as far as 1,500 km into Russian territory, National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, said on Ukrainian Radio.

     

  10. 6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

    Here photos, if somebody lack Tg:

    Copetires... Tirecoping... Vulcopium? Anyway, what an occassion for Trent Telenko to go back in style.

    As an ad hoc measure it might not be so bad. I linked to this video earlier ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHy-Rv2Lpvg&t=64s ) showing that the Ukrainians are using air burst drones to attack planes, so the tyres could well stop some of the pellets and reduce damage and risk of catastrophic effects on fuel tanks. Obviously it's not 100% protection of even the vital parts but could reduce risk until something better is developed. It must be a real pain though to take off and put back on again after every mission.

     

  11. 13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

    https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukraine/post/Cwt5Z_7PbBa

    Testing some sort new RWS, appears to be a fifty cal or maybe a lower velocity 30mm gun with a sniper function. Firing single rounds and adjusting optics. More likely in U.S. or Australia than Ukraine, at least this week.

    Found the website, it is mostly an anti-drone system. Although it looks like it could make anything less than a heavy IFV unhappy if the need arose. System coming to Ukraine very soon it seems.

    Company website

    https://eos-aus.com/

    A bit of a write up on it - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/australian-eos-to-supply-160-slinger-counter-uav-systems-to-ukraine/

  12. Quote

    More than 100 miles undetected? WOW, indeed.

    Might have something to do with sea babies - https://kyivindependent.com/southern-command-russia-disperses-ships-in-fear-of-ukrainian-strikes/

    Quote

    "Humeniuk noted growing anxiety among Russian naval forces regarding Ukraine's "Sea Baby" surface drones. Russian military vessels are reportedly trying to hide behind the areas used by civilian ships, which were intentionally delineated to create an artificial buffer zone."

     

  13. 18 minutes ago, poesel said:

    Maybe a bit late to ask, but why do you bold some parts of location names, like the 'o' & 'i' in Novopetrykivka? Thanks.

     

    I have always assumed it is to show where the stress is in the name to aid with pronunciation. In Russian, and I assume Ukrainian, unstressed vowels often change their sound; for example, Novo would sound more like Nova when spoken.

  14. Kadyrovites at it again:

    Conflict arises between Kadyrov’s military and Dagestanis in Mykhailivka, which turns into a battle. The enemy loses 20 killed and over 40 wounded - https://ukranews.com/en/news/950061-conflict-arises-between-kadyrov-s-military-and-dagestanis-in-mykhailivka-which-turns-into-a-battle

     

    Norway supplying anti-drone systems to Ukraine:

    Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KONGSBERG) has signed a contract through the International Fund for Ukraine for the delivery of Counter Uncrewed Aerial Systems (C-UAS), which will be donated to Ukraine - https://www.kongsberg.com/kda/news/news-archive/2023/international-fund-for-ukraine-orders-multiple-c-uas-air-defence-systems-from-kongsberg/

  15. Something going on at the Kerch bridge again, but the Russians are  claiming two missiles shot down.

    Quote


    Crimean bridge now. It’s not entirely clear if it is the explosions or another smoke screen exercise which take place there from time to time.

    /2. The movement of vehicles on the Crimean bridge is temporarily blocked. - Russian sources.
    It was also reported about the activity of Russian air defense in Kerch

    /3. The Russian-appointed Crimean authorities claim that two missiles were shot down by air defense forces in the area of the Kerch Strait. According to them, the Crimean Bridge is not damaged.

     

     

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