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Offshoot

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Posts posted by Offshoot

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    To add to the indicators of stress and also on the subject of Russians shooting Russians, in an intercepted call a soldier describes how Russian regulars are charged with stopping conscripts from withdrawing, who in turn stop conscripts from withdrawing - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/16/7372156/

    Assuming it is real, it could just be a local commander's initiative but also indicates the problems Russian commanders must have in controlling unmotivated and probably ill-disciplined conscripts and convicts.

    "The convicts were brought to us from a prison. They were led somewhere further forward. And we are here like barrier troops: if someone runs back, we take them out. This is how it is done here: that is, we are the second line here, guarding the first one, and there is a line behind us, too. You can’t run there either. It’s impossible to escape – our own guys will shoot us...".

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Offshoot

    Interviews with some soldiers of I gather the 93rd brigade. They were near Izyum for months but were replaced very shortly before it was retaken, then relocated to near Bakhmut. They really seem to have got the short end of the stick and seem tired but resigned to their lot. The English captions work pretty well.

     

    5

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
    Not sure what is the goal here. Maximum threat on the northern front while stealing all the equipment for RUS military?

    Or Putin wants Belarus to go down with him

    Could be as simple as Lukashenko getting scared that Ukraine might take a left turn after kicking the Russians out, or at least of the instability that will result when Russia is seen to lose

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Yesterdays UK MoD briefing covered similar ground more generally, talking about factional competition within the Russian MoD itself:

    "Surovikin’ s appointment likely reflects an effort by the Russian national security community to improve the delivery of the operation.
    However, he will likely have to contest with an increasingly factional Russian MOD which is poorly resourced to achieve the political objectives it has been set in Ukraine."

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 hours ago, akd said:

    Top-scorched.

    Bottom not so much

    Is it curious though that the collapsed sections of bridge, which were presumably closer to the explosion, are not so scorched? The white road markings are even still visible on them. I wonder how much of that scorching came from fuel from the train.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

    Under the bridge doesn't seem very likely. Stepping through the CCTV footage, the first frame that isn't just vehicles on the road is a mostly saturated frame of the blast - consistent with a very large explosion on the to of the bridge. Under the bridge your expect to see a few frames of light coming from under the bridge before the surface began to break, and you'd have a lot more debris falling down from the sky in the aftermath I'd have thought.

    Truck bomb seems consistent with the video. 

    This the the first frame that isn't normal. The flash starts at the bottom of the frame.

    Kerch-frame.jpg

    In another video, you can see something moving under the bridge

    Kerch-frame-02.jpg

    These both come from this thread that was linked to before (https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1578633947109810176). You can see the moving boat in the first video.

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

    Squad leader scolds turret gunner becasuse he dosn't shot. He was making several short bursts and claimed MG is perioodicaly jamming. When HMMWW drives away, commander again scolds gunner in order he shot at treeplant    

    Someone in the comments of that thread did say "Look, as a Motor T Marine I am all about this **** except for one thing: 8- to 10-round bursts, my turret guy. Little taps on the trigger will jam your M2. Hold that butterfly down so Mama Deuce can say her piece: "Die, motha****a, die!"

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Hister said:

    Can someone please explain to me why Navalny would be a bad choice for a Russian president? I remember reading you in the know guys had many criticisms about him. He was a hardline nationalist, imperialist in the beginning and then like a chameleon changed his tune to be more in line with the Western expectations or something? What is his deal? Thank you.

    I don't know about before, but if his latest thinking is not just words, Navalny doesn't want Russia to have a president (someone posted this link here earlier - https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/30/alexei-navalny-parliamentary-republic-russia-ukraine/ )

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    The point of this is you could sit 50% of the Russian population down, show them reality, show them what it is going to lead to, and they'd just collectively shrug their shoulders.  "Yup, that looks pretty bad for sure.  However, what do you expect us to do about it?  Risk our lives?  We'd rather let things run their course and someone new tell us what to do and when to do it.  Now bugger off and leave us be".

    A chink in the armor of the middle might be the nuclear threat. This thread has talked a lot about Putin's nuclear threats and how the west perceives them, but not about how Russians perceive them. A journalist born in Soviet Ukraine who has written a couple of books on Russian propaganda suggests Putin's threats could backfire. He does acknowledge the passivity of the Russian middle, but perhaps this angle could be exploited by psyops to push them to act, and without even having to lie necessarily (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/25/nuclear-threat-might-change-the-mood-in-russia-itself-stoking-widespread-fear)

    "Putin’s threat of nuclear war may backfire, too. It’s meant to intimidate the west and Ukraine but it can upset his own people more. If there’s one thing Russians fear more than Putin, it’s nuclear war – and now he’s the one bringing it closer. For both the elite and the “ordinary” Russians who I’ve spoken to recently, the calculation is about whether the risk of going against Putin is bigger than the risk of sticking with him. So far, rebelling has seemed the bigger risk; does the nuclear topic change that? Much depends on how the international community reacts. We need to show that the closer he gets to a nuclear threat, the more devastating the reaction will be: military, economic and diplomatic. He will even lose China."

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

    The primary point this guy is making is that the bulk of the population just wants to be left alone.  As long as they are left alone, they won't actively oppose the war (or Putin for that matter).  Mobilization is inevitably going to upset the "laymen", either because they are directly mobilized, have friends/family mobilized, or have difficulty with their jobs because key people and/or resources are mobilized.

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, keas66 said:

    The Monarchy has no power at all - its there for the Tourists.

    Not true, the Queen/King has the right to vet any law that affect's the crown's interests (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/08/royals-vetted-more-than-1000-laws-via-queens-consent)

    "The investigation uncovered evidence suggesting that she used the procedure to persuade government ministers to change a 1970s transparency law in order to conceal her private wealth from the public.

    The documents also show that on other occasions the monarch’s advisers demanded exclusions from proposed laws relating to road safety and land policy that appeared to affect her estates, and pressed for government policy on historic sites to be altered."

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Offshoot

    17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Every time I see this I am struck by the high angle of fire from the BRDM.  Unless they are shooting at a 6+ story building way down that street, they are shooting for show.

    Kherson cat did a thread on it. They were definitely shooting at a building or two. Also, in the first video in that thread at the 1 sec mark you can see an incoming round bounce off the road into the vehicle. Is it easier for the Russians to say it was staged than that they started shooting at each other?

     

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