fireship4

pretty raw stuff
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/
blog post from here
 

Question not specifically for @Grigb @Haiduk @akd but you guys might have a better feel for it
When reading 503rd Guard MMR, (or what ever other units referenced) do we have a feel for how many boots on the ground this really is. We know its certainly not at full strength, but what does a Regiment mean in this context, 1, 2 or 3 BTG ? It would be nice to strip away the "looks good on paper" and get to the reality of what shape these units are currently in.

 
Tom Cooper suggests the following units in the Lyman are
Russians in Lyman: gauging by reports from the social media, the group of forces encircled there is controlled by the 20th Combined Arms Army. At the first look, one might say, 'ah, VSRF'. That's wrong. The troops there are including:
- Bars-13
- Bars-16 (also known as 'Kuban' unit; this unit used to have 1,000 combatants; about 400 are inside Lyman)
- 208th 'Cossack' Motor Rifle Regiment (LPR)
- 503rd GMRR/19th MRD seems to be holding the way in/out
It is possible that the 204th Motor Rifle Regiment is around, too. That said, what's left of the 144th MRD is outside the pocket: this is on the northern side of it, in the Borova area.
Re. BARS: this is a Russian abbreviation for 'Special Combat Army Reserve' (full designation is actually BARS-2021). This was a program to mobilise 100,000 volunteers from former veterans of the VSRF for a 3-years contract. If the Rosgvardia is 'Putin's Pasdaran', BARS is something like 'Putin's Republican Guards': they're drafted from the Russian Cossack Association, handsomely paid (US$3,500 a month, plus allowances and awards), highly motivated, and well-equipped.
Other known BARS units are battalion-sized, and, when fully mobilised, about 1,000-strong. Nearly all are meanwhile deployed in Ukraine. The few others I've heard about so far are:
- Shironin Battalion (from Kirov)
- Bars-14 (I know this is one of units the ZSU considers 'criminals' and is taking no POWs from)
- Bars-15 (also known as 'Piatnashka'; receiving same treatment like -14)
- Bars-18 (ditto)
For involved ZSU units, the following can be assessed:
Kupyansk
- 92nd Mech
- 3rd Tank
- Kraken SF (battalion)
- possibly a battalion of the 80th Motor
Oskil
- 1st 'Ivan Bohun' Special Purpose Brigade (est. 4 Mar 22; including troops from 19 countries; has 6 battalions)
- 25th Airborne
- 66th Mech (persistently ignored by Ukrainian social media, but reported often by the Russians)
- 17th Tank
- 4th NG Brigade
- Azov SF (battalion)
Lyman
- 4th Tank
- 79th Airborne
- 81st Airborne
Siversk
- 80th Airborne
- 114 TD
- 115 TD
Bakhmut is defended by
- 58 Motor
- 72nd Mech
- 93rd Airborne
- 28th Artillery
- at least a brigade (in total) of the TD, but I'm not sure what units are involved.
Additional units 'detected', but not localised, yet known as involved 'somewhere in northern Donbass' are:
- 1st Tank
 

Germany has export control on Leopards so…..we have the British Challenger, French Leclerc, and American M1, that’s it for Western MBTs. Both the Challenger and Leclerc have probably less than 200 in active service with no European state other than the original makers using them. 
In comparison, Greece has 500 Leopard 1s, a ring exchange for Leopard 2s would actually be applauded. Leopard 2, if you recall the proposal by Huba, a scheme where every European state gives a few tanks would amount to a lot, enough for a unit in Ukraine. M1, again, relies on American logistical prowess to operate, the Leopard is the only suitable tank, and the only widely used European tank, and we have rumors of Germany denying the export of the Leopard to Ukraine by other countries.
Germany acting like it is going alone, makes no sense cause literally no European state can give a Leopard tank to Ukraine without German approval.

Something to point out, the West/NATO must appear united, and we know pre-invasion, the U.S and Germany had reached a agreement on Nord Stream 2 being shut down in the event of invasion IF Germany and France were allowed to operate diplomatically to try and defuse the conflict. 
We have rumors that the main reason why no IFVs or MBTs is due to German reluctance, and therefore in order not pierce the alliance unity, all countries adopt the same stance. As already stated, its rumored that several European countries have indicated willingness to give the Leopard to Ukraine, but Germany is shooting down the export. 
We have rumors abounding from the German military industrial sector of a ability to fulfill contracts, but the government is slow walking or ignoring their offers. 
The way Scholz and the German Government has been acting, in completely contradicting circumstances, one week saying no armored cars, the next week saying yes after public pressure is too high to ignore, gives very little credibility to Germany's excuses. 
Something else to point, Germany exports military hardware to many countries with less than acceptable human rights policies, but for Ukraine, drags its feet like it is in quicksand. The fact that the Dingo, a MRAP caused so much anguish for Germany, even as Ukraine finds more and more war crimes and endures the loss of its personnel in offensives, is just unacceptable. 
Germany is also acting like smug ****s, when they haven't done anything worth talking about, nothing unique, and tried to assert they needed the Dingo to defend Poland and the Baltics, considering their stance on Ukraine, that must get Poland and the Baltics seething. 
Also, handing over Marders to Greece so it can give BMP-1s to Ukraine, is just insulting. Absolutely insulting. Does not matter if logistically hard for Ukraine, it looks really bad for Germany to hand over Marders that are better to a non-combatant so they can offload their junk to Ukraine. 
Germany has no problem selling military hardware generally. I will bring up the fact that the Inspector General (Secretary of the navy?) had to resign in January of this year due to saying that Putin needed respect, Russia and Germany should be cooperating against China, and that Crimea was gone from Ukraine. Very little for any of the states between Germany and Russia to feel pleased about, considering the carving of Poland and the Baltics in WW2 and prior. 
Does not seem like a lot of studying was done by the German government towards how the Baltics, Poland and Ukraine might feel about deals between Germany and Russia now eh? Not a lot of consideration for how they feel and the wounds inflicted on them by Germany historically hmm? 
On one hand, saying the Soviet Union's successor is Russia, and therefore is a former rival to Germany is right, but Ukraine was also part of the Soviet Union, and enjoyed German tanks rolling over the same hills and plains Ukraine is attempting to liberate from Russia, yet instead of a pledge to do right for Ukraine, we get this bull**** of a Marder being exchanged to Greece. 
On that note, so much money into Germany by Russia, a lot of politicians, including a former Chancellor owned by that money. It really comes down to the fact that Germany has a lot of incentive to not supply Ukraine, and a lot of factors that influence it to not do so, which would be less of a issue had Germany been revving to support Ukraine like Poland or the UK, or even the quieter U.S. but alas, none to be seen, so yes, Germany is gonna get slammed for being useless. 
 I mean look at these quotes from a NYT article on a interview he did two days ago: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/world/europe/olaf-scholz-germany-ukraine-war.html
How the **** can Ukraine not scream at Germany rightly when it Scholz says this? How can the Baltics, Poland, Finland or any other country in the target lens of a Russia intent on genocide and destruction be fine with that statement?!? I think we can all agree by now that the risk of NATO vs Russia is very low, (again, air defense batteries defending Moscow and the St. Petersburg region have been moved to Ukraine, and the Western Military District, supposed to fight NATO has been similarly drained of resources and personnel as well) and the fact that Ukraine unable to make offensive moves without NATO support is just doomed to have its people genocided on occupied land is just astoundingly insulting. 
"Russia can't win"?!?! Makes Macron look like a ****ing Ukrainian nationalist in comparison. 
Germany does not get to hide behind WW2 and act like it is killing Russia by sending tanks to Ukraine. Actually, Germany is letting Ukrainians die so they don't hurt Russian feelings. Just complete erasure of Ukraine and Ukrainians in enduring Nazi crimes and marching to Berlin and achieving Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. 
Why Russia has attempted for so long and hard to gloss over Soviet contributions by Ukraine over WW2 victory, is to diminish Ukraine in the eyes of Germany, so long wedded to atoning for their sins. Except the German public wants tanks sent! It is clearly not a unpopular move, which just leads us to the more cynical explanations. 

From 'Map Sketcher'. Note the soft ground anchoring the left and the woodlands on the right.

EDIT: Per the below, it looks like the UA has broken through in force further east, directly threatening Kreminna, so this is now just a face of a larger cauldron. 🇺🇦
...Posting as a useful reminder of the major N-S arteries in Luhansk.

 

Rybar just wrote an update regarding the situation there. Looks ZSU finally managed to clear the forests north of Bilohorivka, flanking the whole RU position east of Zherebets. Seems to be a huge chance that we'll see first mass encirclement of RU troops.

 

If somebody wasn't convinced that common EU defense policy is a complete dumpster fire, this Politico article explains it very nicely. Very well worth reading:
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-olaf-scholz-defense-europe-strategic-autonomy-ukraine-war/

Thank you.
In return, I can only offer you "big nasty pointy teeth".
 

It is directly from RU journalist/propagandist Herman Kulikovsky who is responsible for reporting from Kharkive direction. If you wash, shave and cut hair of RU Nats you will see familiar face of German Nazi but with nuclear balalayka.  
 
There are UKR rumors that they are already running. Maybe the brave ones are already dead.

Finally useful Girkin post
 

The West and Ukraine are not one side, with the same goals and motivations. Once Russia nukes Ukraine, the only response is to punish Russia via conventional means in order to ensure the total Ukrainian victory. You must show that nuclear warfare is taboo. If you effectively tell Ukraine to stop advancing, if you decide to sacrifice Ukraine's security for "the West", you get no security for anyone.
Russia's red lines are bull****. End stop. We have seen time and time again, Russia acting with crazier and crazier escalation, in a bid to keep her seizures. Normalizing annexations, normalizing aggression is NOT how you enable greater world security. If you force Ukraine to not gain total Ukrainian victory, you let Putin win, you enable him to flick the nuclear button every time he wants another chunk of Ukraine.
So let's think about it. Say Ukraine tries to take Kherson and Russia declares nuclear weapons are on the table for defend Russian territory. I.e, Ukraine must stop it's offensive. (Putin's speech 3 days ago declared that a threat to Russian's territory would be met with a potential nuclear response)
What keeps Russia from saying that the people of Kharkiv must be liberated to join the Russian Federation and Putin declares that nukes are on the table?
Ukraine must cross the red line and the West needs to stand behind Ukraine or you are going to embolden Putin to feel that the West will fold, and that Ukraine is not important enough to risk brinkmanship with.

What you call cluster beep is the system itself. This is how it works. This is how everything in RU army works. You can actually see it yourself - there is classic RU comedy DMB. It is renowned for accurate depiction of RU conscription process and army internal functioning.
(239) DEMOBBED HQ (DMB, "ДМБ" 2000) comedy about Russian army with English subtitles. - YouTube
Well, translation of the name is bit off - I would translate it as [Destined for] DMB.
Do not get me wrong UKR Info Ops are active, but they are mostly limited to spreading false rumors (Yesterday they fooled my relative who decided to stay in RU). However, these rumors are just icing on the cake.
There is a certain RU rumor that cluster beep was enhanced by an anti-Putin group from inside. But I do not have anything to prove it.
 
Shoigu case is complicated. Shoigu is PR clown and placeholder for Putin himself. Blaming him for all the failures is simply unjust. It is not Shoigu who built the System (it is USSR creation). And it is not Shoigu who failed to reform it - you cannot blame your puppet for your own faults.
On top of that Shoigu is an old Putin loyalist. Killing him unjustly will send shock waves through all Putin loyalists. That is more dangerous than not punishing him publicly. Maybe Putin will decide to relieve him at some point but that will be it. obviously, it is just my opinion.

Yeah, I'm getting married tomorrow (it's 11 PM now in Poland, we are saying the vows at 2PM). Just as we speak the missus is getting annoyed that I nerd about the war on the internet  But it is 100% worth it!

Seriously - in 5-10 years:
Ukraine:

Donbas and Crimea under Russian administration:

 

Yesterday and the day before there has been a lot of talk about how far will Ukraine attack. I want to state out that I don't think that Ukraine will reach its 1991 borders militarily. However, I also think that its likely that Ukraine will enter the DPR/LPR.

My core reasoning for this is that the DPR/LPR have "fuzzy borders" and represent a significant amount of frontage.

So what do I mean by "fuzzy borders"? Unlike Crimea, LPR/DPR are areas with wide contiguous borders with Ukraine. So crossing them somewhere and grabbing a farm would be easy and hard for Russia to declare off limits. Would Russia go nuclear over the loss of Ivan's wheat farm? No. Well then what about going nuclear over a one horse town? likely not. And you can see how it becomes hard for Russia to red line these areas.
But more importantly I think the reason is frontage. I did a quick mockup

Assuming Russia loses everything west of the Dnipr and North of Luhansk you end up with the black lines representing static fronts if Ukraine doesn't enter LPR/DPR (and assuming they cannot bounce the Dnipr). By ruling out the "Republics" Ukraine is cutting Russian frontage from over 375 kilometers to less than half that, and essentially doing a huge favor for the Russian's given their increasingly limited military capability. 

I believe Ukraine has the military means to push through this shorter front, but why would you give your enemy a choke point of your own creation? Now obviously this doesn't necessarily mean that Ukraine pushes all the way through the LPR to the Russian border but I think it gives weight to the idea that the LPR/DPR territory isn't going to be avoided. By pushing into this terrain they more than double the amount of distance Russia needs to seriously consider defending.


edit: I also have been meaning to mention Crimea's situation gives the opportunity for the Russian's to use a nuclear strike in a non-direct way. If Ukraine begins to push across Perekop and the Russian's airburst a tactical nuke over the Sea of Azov it would very likely stop the attack without Russia suffering much in the way of consequences.

Good summary response. FWIW I would only add that you don't actually elect the party, you elect the individual representative of your constituency. Once elected they can, and do, change parties without being re-elected. Similarly, if that MP dies/resigns then there has to be a bye-election for a replacement, the party doesn't get to swap a replacement straight in.
 
Now back to our normal programmes more relevant to the situation in Ukraine!

Apologies if this outstanding (and highly CM relevant!) thread has been posted before. This thread adds pages so quickly now, it's hard to keep up. (And some 🤡 keeps posting OT videos).  This has got my mapmaking / scenario designing fingers itching.... if only I had time!
Option 2: After a breakthrough in the Barvinok - Bohorodychne area, the main group should break through in a straight line towards Dar'ivka.

 

There are two difficulties here:
1. the AFU prefers to advance on roads, and there are fields here. But as long as it's dry, this shouldn't be an obstacle. There are about 24 km to cover, it can be done in a day. There is bocage (mixed woodland and pasture) in the area, which will help with concealment.

2. The second problem is possible Russian Army strongholds in settlements and villages that would have to be bypassed. This means that forces must be allocated to attack them.
The route avoids large population centres. The Russians usually defend them, neglecting the smaller ones.....
....in both cases the key will be a breakthrough of the first line of Russian defence, but I think the AFU can pull it off. They have already done it, only they did not develop the offensive further. Now they should concentrate on one powerful strike and then everything will work out. Especially since there is time to move important units, such as reconnaissance or assault units from Izyum.
 

And here is more sobering assessment. I could not resist commenting on it as the author is clearly from RU Nat elite and never had to interact with RU reality.  
Discussion - what you see in the posts above is growing conflict between RU Nat generations. Currently the Putin generation is in charge. It is the generation that grew up before Perestroika. They grew up learning that the State is the solution to any problem. Plan is everything. They know nothing else. 
The new generation (kind of mine) is a generation that has got a taste of Capitalism. They do not care about Plan as long as there is result. And the older generation is failing to deliver the result. The older generation becomes a liability in the war the new generation wants to wage. 
As I said previously, I sense the migration of Power from old generation state actors (governors, police and army generals) due to their incompetence to new generation private actors (PMCs). But I need to add community actors (volunteer militias) as well. This is where the future front lines of RU Civil War are most likely to appear.
RU Old War Criminals against RU New War Criminals. But with Nukes.
I hope Europe Security Services and Armed Forces are not asleep at the wheel and will be ready for it.

well, if you want to start getting into the weeds, how far does this right go?  I want to secede from the US.  Not my state, not my county.. just me.  The Free state of sburke.  If you'd like to apply for a passport, just send me the $50 fee plus some handling charges etc.  You'll be met at the entrance to my drive by border control.  We'll need at least several weeks to process your visa (mostly so we can tidy up).
Seriously though a state has a right to establish some level of territorial integrity.  If those folks want to live under a Russian gov't they are free to do so. The border is just over there. That isn't an option in prison.  Prior to 2014 there was no discussion about secession as far as I know.  This is entirely instigated by Russia and I believe Steve has previously posted on some of the key players and machinations to seize power there after Maidan.  There was no vote, there was simply an armed seizure of power.  Remember those little green men?
While I do agree that Ukraine needs to decide what it feels is worth fighting for and what isn't, I don't think there is any legitimacy to a separation vote other than to legitimize Russian aggression.

If we mean what we stand for then this isn't about what we want, it is about what the populations within those regions want - we cannot go back-sies on democracy because we don't like the result. 
And now we get down to it. What is democracy? What is a "region" with a right of secession? What is a "population"? What is the franchise? We get into gerrymandering discussions here.
To take the case of Northern Ireland. What gave the six counties the right to secede from the rest of Ireland? (in reality it was military power through the gun running to Larne and the British Army mutiny in the Curragh). But what is the franchise? Whole of UK (which would have lost)? Whole of Ireland (which would have lost)? Whole of Ulster (which would have lost)? On a county by county basis (which would have shown four counties in favor of secession)? So what we ended up with was four Protestant counties and two subject Catholic counties making a six county statelet which was (just about) large enough to be viable and with a (then) inbuilt 66/33 Protestant majority. i.e. it was an entirely illegitimate project.
So when we move to Ukraine. What was the mandate behind Donetsk or Luhansk having any legitimacy as a separatist region? There is none. The majority of the population in both oblasts wanted to stay in Ukraine. There was no problem until Russia sent it in agents provocateurs to stir up trouble because they could not accept being defeated in the Maidan. So I do not see that Donetsk, Luhansk or Crimea have any legitimate right to secede. And when you add to the fact that the Russians have engaged in ethnic cleansing to clear out the Tartars and plant Russians in Ukraine to generate an artificial majority, the fact that the pro Ukrainian parts of the population fled from Donetsk and Luhansk and Crimea how do we say we can have a fair poll today. Like take Crimea, do Russian settlers who moved in get a vote because they live there now? And the family who's house they live in who are refugees in Kiev don't get a vote?
No.
This is not a question of pseudo independence referenda (and why would Ukraine subject to this if Russia is not going to allow Buriyta and Chechnya and other regions secede). Yes, if people in Donbas want to have Russian language rights and the right to send members of Parliament to Kiev they should (after a period of weeding out traitors who should lose their Ukrainian citizenship).
 
You have some places like Scotland for example which entered a voluntary union with England in 1707 or whatever and therefore can have a natural justice right to undo that (it is still a separate country with a separate legal system). Greenland is hundreds of miles from Denmark. And even there whether they have a right to secede or not is an open question. But what gives the Donbas the right to secede from Ukraine? To my mind, nothing. And sorry, regardless what the current quisling "government" there says or the remains of the population that currently inhabit that place.
 
Have they a right to citizenship in Ukraine or to leave peacefully to Russia? Yes. Have they the right to live in peace? Absolutely. The right to raise their kids in Russian language schools? 100%. Have they the right to declare themselves independent of Ukraine and ask Russia for "protection"? Hell no.

It is, Cedric. As a simple matter of historical fact.
Fortunately the census results out today show that the days of Rhodesia on the Bann are numbered.
See for example - https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2022/09/22/northern-ireland-census-results-analysis/
However the thread has had enough problems staying on message today, so I will just leave it there. However I would be more than happy to get on to another thread with anyone here who wants to trash out this subject in more detail. But let's keep the focus on Ukraine.
 
By two cents on Donbas and Crimea. And here for I think the very first time I find myself in disagreement with The Captn.
 
We have as a matter of international law to respect current international frontiers. Which is why Kosovo is such an unfortunate precedent. This is why despite all the brutality we (the West) ultimately recognize for example Russia's sovereignty over Chechnya or Assad's sovereignty over the Kurdish part of Syria. If we are to say that Donetsk or Luhansk or Crimea or any other part of Ukraine (Kharkiv, Odesa, Kherson, where would it stop?) have a right to secede from Ukraine because of some local plebiscite then where do we stop? How do we keep international order?
 
We would first of all have the Basque region of Spain or Catalonia seceding. Problems in Corsica and Brittany, in Sardinia. A free republic of Texas. It would undermine the international order.
 
My opinion is that Ukraine needs to be supported by the West to regain all of its internationally recognized frontiers. That includes Crimea and the Donbas. And yes, we will have a NATO naval base in Sevastopol and the Russians will hate that. But Sevastopol is not a part of Russia no matter what they say. It was Ukrainian and they had a lease on the naval base. Now that they have made an enemy of Ukraine why should Ukraine tolerate a Russian naval base there?
And I know that some of you can (in good faith and reasonably) argue that this would be unacceptable for Russia. That they might resort to nuclear weapons. But that in my opinion is not rational. Are we going to fold every time they declare somewhere to be a part of Russia that objectively is not? And where do we draw the line if we are going to fold to nuclear brinksmanship? Crimea? Donetsk? Luhansk? Kherson? Mariupol? Kharkiv? Odesa? Transnistria? Kiev? Warsaw? Berlin?

Ok, on mobilization.  I hope I am not repeating myself too much but my assessment is that it won't help Russia much at this point in the war.  If they were serious they should have done whatever this is back in March.  Why?
- It does not fix the Russian operational system, in fact it might make it worse.  The Russian logistical and C4ISR systems are already strained under the current load, and the UA are not making life easier by hitting them all over the place.  Adding another 300k troops to that system, may do as much damage as HIMARs on a good day.  This is everything from uniforms, weapons, equipment, food/water/consumables and medical support - dear gawd, the medical support plan just got burned badly.  Further, unless Russia is recruiting from a 5 EYES nation or possible China, they are not going to get the technical expertise to even start to try and get their C4ISR to a competitive level.  I am sure Russia has switched on tech savvy young people but intake into these trades is not quick or easy.  Nor is getting the equipment they need to do the job.  No, my bet is that IT specialist is going to wind up in a freezing trench with a Cold War era AK-47.
- It does not fix the joint force - which for Russia may as well be a magical/mythical concept along with fairies and functional democracy.  It takes years to create pilot and air weapons controllers, let alone integrating that at an operational level.  Maritime crews are in the same boat (bah-dump, bump).  So 300k barely trained infantry are not going to solve the lack of joint force integration in the RA.
- It does not create offensive capability.  Even if the RA could magically create the logistics and C4ISR system to support them.  Turning 300k individual troops into fighting units and formations is a very large time bill.  We are talking Lvl 1 - 7 training, to start with. Training formation staff that can actually plan and synchronize offensive operations is also a years long effort. This mobilization creates, at best (or worse, depending on how one looks at it), defensive capability.  Which means that with the exception of tactical surges, the operationally offensive phase for the RA in this was is likely over.  I strongly suspect this signals a "dig in and hold onto whatever ground you can so Putin can call it a win" warfare for Russia from here on out. 
- It creates massive political exposure.  Hence why I think this is endgame.  It forces people who wanted to sit on the sidelines into the fire.  It puts pressure on home front that wasn't there before.  It is the last card in conventional warfare, done in desperation to try and keep things afloat.  The equation is upside down for Russia on this.  It cannot create wins on the battlefield, and will only create losses politically.  Were I Steve, I would call it the death spiral.  
- This is 2022, not 1941.  The lethality of warfare is frankly pants-wettingly scary.  300k poorly trained and equipped troops are going to get cut to pieces by modern precision artillery backed up with ISR of the gods.  It is going to be brutal and nasty.  These units are going to have a very rough time of it and their morale is going to iffy from the start.  That, or they will feed these poor sods in as replacements into existing line units, which does nothing for cohesion.  You can integrate replacements but you need a period of unit integration, and I am doubting the RA has that time.  I am betting RSOMI is going to look like the opening of Enemy at the Gates.
- Last point, it does not change the simple fact that also unlike 1941 these lads are not fighting on Russian soil.  No matter how many times Putin or the generals say it, they are not stupid.  They are in a foreign country dying for "what?"  exactly.  Conscript troops will fight and die like mad dogs for their homes and families.  Fighting over a few yards in a country that isn't theirs is the land of professional militaries with years of training and experience.  There are plenty of examples from Afghanistan back in the 80s to back this up.
So basically, mobilization is not a sign of much beyond just how bad thing have gotten on the RA side.  My bet is that casualty rates are in the higher ranges we have seen.  300k is not enough to cover the now-700 km frontage in any kind of depth, so hardpoints and isolated fort is the likely plan.
The only question I have left is - how much time does it actually buy the RA?  
 

One of my favorite things about Ukraine is their state level trolling of Russia.

Thousands of people came out on protests against mobilization in many large cities of Russia. Well... Even the threat to be a canon fodder didn't wake up Russian society. Most large rally there was in Moscow, but local "creative class" (as like to say Russians) can do nothing to resist except chaunting "no war!" and сlapping, while OMON was taking them away one by one without any resistance. Even beating up of the girl, which allegedly caused her death nothing changed. Russian new-generation can't fight for the future of their land and nation. This generation of comfort life and "we are out of politics" can only to run away from Russia, but only to bring own part of "Russia desecrated" in other countries and to show own defiant arrogance to the people of theese countries.
Even most of Russian liberals and "creative class" have an opinion that all in the world have to be rotate around them. So, if the same Germany wants to recieve in the future new millions of Russians, which don't want integrate in German society and will cooperete in agressive "Russian communities" like this did previous wave of Russian migrants, driving now with Russian flags and supporting the war, so well... let Germany gives "asylum" for them. But I suppose more than 2/3 of theese people, which now assaulting border crossings and airports, posted Z and rejoiced on 24th Feb, hoping about fast Russian triumph.
Ah, I forgot. In Russian social networks many people blame in mobilisation not Putin, but... Ukraine! As if "this is all because of Ukraine continue to resist instead to accept Russian demands and make peace, so we forced to go at war"
Moscow. Chaunting "no war!"
   
Four OMONs packed a guy, but nobody try to free him - they still to clap and chaunt, OMON returns and detains other protester. 
The girl, beaten up, allegedly to the death. No reaction of protestes
And typical comment of Z-fan. I suppose, this flame patriot now on his route to Turkey, Georgia, Finland...

Why I must to participate in mobilization if I support the war and Putin? This is not fair! Let they take those, who against the war, traitors. Otherwise in the conuntry will not remain sane people absolutely! And so many traitors are bred! 
And here it "middle class" - IT employee of the bank. He said he received summons to come to enlistment office on 22nd Sep "for checking personnel data". He came and got immediately appointment that in the same day he must be departed to Naro-Fominsk [base of 4th GTD]. He never served in army, and has health category B. But in enlistment office said he is fit for service. Journalist asks him, what he will do now and man answers: "Waht I can do? I will go, elese it will be criminal case against me"
Maybe I enough sharp, but Russians lost a right to name a "nation". They just "population", which can't and don't want to change something in own country 

Mind you, there is a much longer list of reasons not to attack and seize Belgorod then simply risk of escalation. Rhetorically, Belgorod is actually useless. Oh sure it's a military hub that bombards Kharkiv daily. But the Ukrainian people do not need Belgorod conquered and not even need the bombardment of Kharkiv to end (tho I'm sure lessening it is nice and that has occurred via targeted action that is not a precursor for invasion) and Zelensky is not going to suffer politically for failing to invade Belgorod. (A great contrast is of course the return of Ukrainian POWs) In that sense, while yes it is a valid target, there is no political need, and not really military need and lots of military negatives and political negatives before we even reach the escalation negativity factor as something for the General Staff of Ukraine to consider.
And obviously Russia understands this as well.
Russia has always understood that Ukraine claims the return of the Donbas and Crimea. It shouldn't be understated that we have a very long list of reasons for Russia to claim Crimea is politically poison for returning to Ukraine and one of the most important is because the international order basically makes Crimea actually a much, much more valid target than Belgorod. Way more valid. Belgorod would actually raise eyebrows worldwide, Crimea would not, or a much less raising of the eyebrows worldwide to be fair.
Russia must employ this "red line" precisely because Crimea is a valid target. The problem is they spent a lot of time cheapening their rhetoric, and the basis for this invasion itself has damaged Russia's red lines. Ukraine is a sword held by NATO at Russia's neck, except the world can see Russia isn't concerned with NATO at all. (You don't move military hardware away from borders that are supposedly ready to invade you)
Even the basis for Ukraine's "Nazi" rhetoric domestically and internationally just got damaged, the leadership of the Azov, terrorists and war criminals who tortured the Donbas, traded over to Ukraine without a trial even.
Attempting to cast the recently occupied regions of Ukriane as eternally Russia damages Russian claims to Crimea severely as well.
Oh sure, no state is immune to domestic concerns and it's right to say that considerations for escalation must account for domestic instability as well as international support.
But even here Russia falls flat on its face. The initial invasion force, understood to be small for the complete occupation of Ukraine, turns out Russia was just a idiot and figured Ukraine for a bunch of chumps.
Instead of opting for measures to indicate the severity of the threat to the Russian state and people and worldwide, it spent months hiding behind the SMO and still does today. By extension the problems we see in the Russian military in Ukraine, the reaction to mobilization, indicate not a whole lot of bottom up eagerness to protect the Donbas or Crimea. At least not to the death.
The fact that Russia spent years rhetorically hyping up Ukraine as the enemy and yet the Russian military, aside from all it's other problems, very much shows a problem stemming from lack of faith and belief in the stated goals of the SMO.
Maybe elite factions threaten Putin if he does not pursue the defense of Crimea. Certainly valid.
But ya, to sum it up, Russian rhetoric around Ukraine just straight up is lies and BS all the way down. Whether Crimea itself is a red line is clouded by the fact they seem to say everything is a red line. Ukraine was a red line. (Not even saying nuclear red lines, mind you, just red lines in general)