rocketman

yep, being aware of inequities in society is gonna make us go broke.  Much easier to teach that slavery wasn't so bad.  Trying to understand the real continuing impact of slavery on our society is too woke.  You go Florida!

This is just getting sad. 

Yeah, wouldn't be very wise to say something else.
For someone who "lives and breaths these issues", you have a pretty uncompromising attitude.
All the persons I met in my life that I know to be considerate and/or compassionate, and who have a reasonable amount of empathy, are usually not belligerent at all. They are full of doubts, do not want to hurt other people, refrain from aggression and sometimes even from assertiveness. They think and learn, wonder and discuss. And doubt again.
I like those people. We need those people. They are the ones that can bring us better times. Not the spitefull or aggressive ones, not the ones with the big ego's or the oh so confident ones.
To me, you do not seem to be a doubter. And where I totally understand the rage, anger and bloodlust from the Ukrainians, I have a bit more difficulty with your "assertive" way of posting. You are, according to your profile, in the USA, so not directly involved in the war, but your posts sometimes give the impression that you are on the frontlines.
In more than 12 years on the Battlefront-forums I only used my ignore button once, because I think people should be able to say what they want. But even after Battlefront-Steve asked you very polite to be just a little bit more agreeable, I do not see a nicer KevinK.
I don't like myself for it, but your posts seem to keep on triggering some sort of annoyance with me, so I am gonna use the ignore-button for now.
 
 
 

Those tires are also gonna be flammable - just dump a Molotov cocktail on them and the plane will go up like a torch!

Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's (yahoo.com)
Since Vladimir Putin launched the invasion in February 2022, emigration out of Russia has exploded, with some estimates putting the exodus at 1 million people. A recent analysis from the policy platform Re: Russia narrowed the number to 817,000-922,000.
That's contributed to a record labor shortage, with 42% of industrial firms unable to find enough workers in July, up from 35% in April.
The composition of Russia's exodus also points to the best and brightest fleeing the country. While a barrage of Western sanctions incentivized many to leave for economic reasons, others fled to avoid military service, skewing the numbers toward younger Russians.
Workers under the age of 35 now account for less than 30% of the labor force, the lowest on record going back 20 years.
And according to a report from the French Institute of International Relations, 86% of those who have left Russia are under the age of 45, and 80% have a college education. At least 100,000 IT professionals moved out of Russia in 2022, a Kremlin official estimated last year.
In addition, data also suggest the Russians who fled were significantly wealthier, as nearly 11.5% of personal savings that were in Russian banks at the end of 2021 were were transferred abroad in 2022, amounting to about 4 trillion rubles ($41.5 billion).
A shrinking population of skilled professionals bodes ill for the Russian economy. When highly skilled workers leave, economic opportunities depart with them, which will bring Russia's living standards to the level of other former Soviet states, the Atlantic Council said in a report.
Without migration to fill the labor gap, and paired with declining birth rates, the Russian economy is expected to shrink.
In fact, the Atlantic Council estimated that Russia's GDP, as measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), will fall behind Indonesia's in 2026, nearly two years earlier than would've been the case had Putin not launched his war on Ukraine. By then, they will switch places as the world's sixth and seventh largest economies by PPP.
 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1698060278145945947.html
Russian government has cut off all payments to wounded and dead wagnerites. Oddly enough they are not very happy. I think there is very real risk for Putin here having thousands of these walking around with a grudge. Thread reader app link included above.

UKR Edition of Pimp My Ride
Holiday traffic jams while Russians return home after spending holidays in Ukraine.
Not to be forgotten as part of ongoing genocide by Russians.
 

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, while on a visit in France, told a story, how small group of 31 fighters maintained success in Robotyne, after weeks of unsuccessful assaults

...One Ukrainian unit had been conducting continuous assaults in this area of the front, and due to exhaustion and losses, at some point, this unit lost the ability to continue the offensive. And then "radical decisions" were made: the unit's leadership was changed.
New commander asked to assemble soldiers who were motivated and ready to perform combat missions. A combined group of 31 soldiers was created, a third of whom had no combat experience, but all of whom had the knowledge and will to win.
Thanks to the leadership of the commanders and sergeants, this group established "horizontal links" with neighbouring units and started working on the contact line. For 18 hours, they crawled literally on their stomachs through kilometres of minefields, where the Russians had placed six mines per square metre.
Finally, the unit reached a strip of trees dividing farmers' fields. Everyone in Ukraine knows this word - "posadka" ("tree-plant, tree-line"). It’s in these plantations, invisible on maps, that the greatest tragedies and heroism of the war take place. So, our unit drove the Russians out of there and held the position for two days until reinforcements arrived. Subsequently, this group walked another 10 kilometres with backpacks weighing 35-40 kilograms through minefields. They only had time to catch their breath briefly and immediately stormed the fortified Russian positions, drove the enemy out and held out until the main forces arrived.
In total, this unit conducted six assaults and two reconnaissance missions in 40 days. A group of 31 men did the work of an entire battalion, which should have consisted of about 400 men. The losses amounted to seven wounded, including only one seriously injured after stepping on a mine.
In fact, the work of this group made it possible for an entire brigade to attack Robotyne and liberate it after weeks of assaults.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/30/7417687/

Russian TG
Verbovoye can become the second Rabotino

UKR TGs (RUMINT)
- "Surovikin line" has been breached in four places
- part of Verbove already grey zone
- we have some succes in fields on east and south-east from Novoprokopivka
 

A testament to the quality of this thread:
it took 2814 pages before the subject of racism popped up. That must be a worldrecord for any thread on any forum these days.

This night Russia conducted retaliation combined strike with Shakheds and cruise missiles.
Loud night was in Kyiv too. Over the city and around were intercepted 20 aerial targets. Alas, in Kyiv parts of downed missile killes two citizens, also in Kyiv and oblast several citizens were injured by fragments of broken windows. 
Odesa was under attack two, reportedly 8 missiles were intercepted over the sea.
Total Russians have launched 28 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles (all were intercepted) and 16 Shakeds (15 were intercepted)

Reportedly factory "Kremniy EL" was hit, producing microelectronic parts, chips and semiconductors. 90 % of production uses in defense industry. Particularly in missiles Topol-M, Bulava, avionics of fighter jets MiG and Su, in SAMs S-300/400, Pantsyr S1 Russians claimed just downed drone fell on the factory

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/29/7417578/
Russian "authorities" in Tokmak prepare to leave city – Melitopol's mayor. 

Well, all good things can be used in bad ways, sure. All men have a penis, but we aren't all rapists, for example.
Ethnicity also isn't a binary - a person can legitimately be multiple things at once. I'm a Wellingtonian (which comes with a different set of assumptions than being either a Mainlander or an Aucklander, although neither of those distinctions probably mean much outside the country), and a Kiwi (similar but different to Australian), and sort-of British (somewhat similar but also very different to American), and sort-of European (different to Asian or African). None of them completely describe me, but all of them provide some degree of insight, depending on the audience. Theres nothing inherently racist about any of those categories, even though of course Wellingtonians are naturally superior to Aucklanders.

That will be a interesting day. Neptune has that sort of range? 
 
 

Small "nuke" after FPV drone of 14th mech.brigade hit Russian Msta-S. Location - near Sofiivka village, Luhask oblast, Kupiansk direction
Russian offensive on Kupiansk still bogging, though many experts say main goal was not new contact line along Oskol river (but desired), but to force Ukrainian command to move reserves here, which could be involved on the south or in some other place. Partially they could achieve this
 

I would suggest that there is no such thing as an “ethnic” Russian or an “ethnic” Ukrainian or an “ethnic” Pole, or an “ethnic” anything for that matter. Everyone’s DNA is so diversified, that all you can tell is that the largest part is from a “generally current” population.
A much better LABEL would be “cultural” instead of “ethnic.”

I do have all the pre-2014 documents, both originals and digital backup scans in the cloud.
But it doesn't matter, because I have reasons to believe I may not reach your side of the border. Not particularly fond of the idea of figuring if I am wrong or not. I am 95% sure it's not gonna end well. So I stay put for now.
Uhm. I was born in Crimea ('89), so as my mother and grandparents. My father is originally from Russia, but came here also during Soviet era and was registered here with Ukrainian documents before 2014. I do have all the old documents, but I never left Crimea to renew them after 2014. It costs money, and there's always something more important, like dental, or clothes, or broken boiler. I was going to when I felt comfortable to properly resettle. But who cares? I've never collaborated nor commited any crimes. Those who did know it and take their own risks by staying.
I do get your point about documents disappearing when things blow up and burn, and it's a good one, but it's not like someone intends to repeat Soviet style deportations in the middle of the night with freight trains. Not the country commited to join the EU, at least. Ministry of reintegration and other state services have a lot of experience with this sort of thing by this point, I'm sure. 
 
The ethnic hatred, on the other hand, is something to watch out for, definitely. I've identified myself as ethnically Russian my whole life. I speak Russian in my head 75% of the time. 20% my thoughts are in English, and sometimes I think like 5% in Ukrainian (mostly Poderev'yansky memes ;D).
After 24th February 2022, it suddenly became clear that ethnicity and even culture does not define me. I felt it in my gut and still do. Our actions define who we are. But also laws. By international law, and by Ukrainian law, I am Ukrainian citizen. Even if Estonians did not recognize me as such. That's who I am.
I do see your concerns as valid and they are worth the discussion.

You realize that a few pages back people here were calling for your deportation in the event of a liberation?  This is the mess.  You clearly are not a pro-Russian sympathizer but in the wrong circumstances unless you can prove Ukrainian citizenship and loyalty you could be on a boat out based on some of the rhetoric being thrown around here. The cause emerges out of situations just like this.
Anyway as I said before let’s honestly hope it does not come to this.  Hopefully people will be integrated smoothly and embrace peace.  It is when the honeymoon period ends that things may get weird.  For the record I am talking insurgency here, not partisan resistance during the war.  That I strongly suspect is off the table.  I am talking 6 months to a year after the war and something does not go right and Russia is still able to make trouble…because they will if they can.
And in all sincerity, take care of yourself.

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

And proper supporting equipment is even more important than the actual manpower. If Russia is out of jammers, out of artillery that put a round within a kilometer of the aim point, and out of counter-battery radar, heavily manned trenches just run up the casualty count. I still think Ukraine has gotten it more right than wrong, concentrating to soon and to obviously just lets the the Russians concentrate as well.
I will also point out that Ukraine and the U.S. have run at least one first class info op about how the Ukrainians were going to attack in this one place, and only this one place...

Another note re logistics -  in response to HIMARS et al Russia's has dispersed and atomised its supply. No large convoys,  just 1-2 trucks,  in relays,  fast moving, short drop off/load up. 
This is fine when the front is slow but if it kicks off into a sudden surge throughput then RuA logistics could suddenly start failing in cascade because its not able to concentrate sufficient quantities in short enough time, and when it tries to it gets HIMARS up the wazoo. 
UKR strikes have deformed local RUS logistics into a weird, situation specific  and reactive shape, away from an organizationally deep and somewhat operationally sound form. This has created a seemingly flexible approach but it possibly has no sustained surge capacity if the front is suddenly over matched. 
I don't think UKR will be able to out run RUS logs but overwhelm it with a widespread demand it cannot meet. 
I wonder how this would manifest... 

It's interesting how of us have mentioned the possibility of a second Wagner rebellion - we've all just assumed that minus Prigozhin & Utkin Wagner is impotent/directionless. Perhaps Putin made the same assumptions. 
But per @sburke it might not be. Perhaps Prigozhin's implanted ideology has a life of its own... 
Wouldn't that be a poison pill par excellence...