rocketman

In my opinion Putin made the same fatal error many in the US (and this board, at times) are making: seeing and hearing only what they want to, not what is actually there.  Putin grossly oversimplified the problem of a major invasion of Ukraine.  He and his cronies built a framework of weak and dangerous assumptions, willed them into facts, and refused to consider any facts that did not fit the house of certainty they had constructed.
Problem is we are seeing the same weakness in strategic thinking/ understanding within our own populations and some political players are simply exploiting that.  The real danger is when that flawed framework hits reality, which does not care about human fictions no matter how hard we may believe them.  We saw it during COVID, we see it in Ukraine - flawed strategy colliding with reality.

Fully endorse this. The claim the Biden administration somehow blinked is, let's be entirely clear, idiotic. It played every card it could play within the political/military/strategic restraints that it could in order to avert the invasion. That the Russians decided to go va banc is on them, not on everyone who tried to stop it. 

My assumption is that the global pandemic had delayed Putin's original war plan by about a year. Putin had plotted his war-of-plunder in Ukraine under the assumption that *someone else* would be in the US presidency at the time, would have pulled the US out of NATO by then and would have publicly backed him in his war. We were in fact just a few locked doors and a few alert Capitol security guards away from that happening, judging by the growing list of January 6 sedition convictions. A common meme at the start of the war was that Putin had invaded Ukraine on a whim because Biden had publicly said 'unkind things' about him (I recall one Youtube video actually used accompanying CM game footage). You can't have it both ways. You can't blame Biden because he too forcefully warned of the coming war and also because he didn't oppose it enough.

No it wasn’t and I don’t think you need to.  It is a stupid narrative proposed either by opportunists or fools.  The time for “staring” was between 2014 and 2022 and we failed on that at every turn across the entire political spectrum.  The reasons were pretty simple - you can’t just stare, you have to be ready to back it up, and no one in the US or entire western world was going to do that for Ukraine.  The costs were simply too high on too many levels. This entire post-crisis “tough guy” narrative is a pretty oblivious ploy to try and pin the blame for this war on one side or another.  We all watched Russia doing dirty in the region and basically did nothing…in some cases we made it worse.
”But air power!”  Ok dingus, how much do you think positioning that amount of AirPower in the region would have cost?  Air power is not a magic wand, it is a massive military capability one has to surge, stage and keep at readiness levels, costing billions to do so over the timescales the “staring” would have occurred.  The bill for massive overmatch of the Russian air forces would have been (and frankly still is) very high.  Let alone if we really had to do it, and completely ignore escalation risks. Same people would be quacking about “ridiculous government spending in Ukraine” that is would have taken to actually set up “staring” - unless it was their guy in charge, which is a whole other problem.
 One is not an expert “strategist” because you can regurgitate some spin-lines dreamt up by a political ad agency. You are fool being played because it is so much easier to let someone else do all that hard thinking and make this whole complicated world so simple.  And before anyone weighs on on left or right…both sides do it so let’s just not get into that.  Best thing you can do for yourself is get a library card, read a lot of history and a wide range of political sciences/military affairs.  Do the hard work for yourself.  

Russian TG claims, during retreating of Russian troops from Opytne toward Donetsk airport, Russian artillery mistakingly hit them, because spotters thought this is Ukrainian forces advance. As claimed 27 killed, 34 wounded, several vehicles destroyed.  
Repeating of 2014 situation, when battalion "Vostok" eliminated almost whole detachment of Russian volunteers "Iskra", retreating from Donetsk airport, passing them as Ukrianian troops, which brokethrough to the city
 

O.o
 

Some effect fireballs
UKR FPV drone destroyed Russian SP-howitzer east from Vesela Dolyna village (SE from Bakhmut). It's about 9 km from frontline
It's claimed TOS-1A was coocked by UKR R18 drone of 27th brigade of National Guard, but vehicles is under trees, so unclear what exactly was hit
UKR FPV drone hit directly at 240 mm shell, prepared to charge, of 2S4 SP-mortar, causing nice fireball. Lacation Popivka village 5 km SW from Svatove and about 10 km from frontline
 

yep, being aware of inequities in society is gonna make us go broke.  Much easier to teach that slavery wasn't so bad.  Trying to understand the real continuing impact of slavery on our society is too woke.  You go Florida!

This is just getting sad. 

Yeah, wouldn't be very wise to say something else.
For someone who "lives and breaths these issues", you have a pretty uncompromising attitude.
All the persons I met in my life that I know to be considerate and/or compassionate, and who have a reasonable amount of empathy, are usually not belligerent at all. They are full of doubts, do not want to hurt other people, refrain from aggression and sometimes even from assertiveness. They think and learn, wonder and discuss. And doubt again.
I like those people. We need those people. They are the ones that can bring us better times. Not the spitefull or aggressive ones, not the ones with the big ego's or the oh so confident ones.
To me, you do not seem to be a doubter. And where I totally understand the rage, anger and bloodlust from the Ukrainians, I have a bit more difficulty with your "assertive" way of posting. You are, according to your profile, in the USA, so not directly involved in the war, but your posts sometimes give the impression that you are on the frontlines.
In more than 12 years on the Battlefront-forums I only used my ignore button once, because I think people should be able to say what they want. But even after Battlefront-Steve asked you very polite to be just a little bit more agreeable, I do not see a nicer KevinK.
I don't like myself for it, but your posts seem to keep on triggering some sort of annoyance with me, so I am gonna use the ignore-button for now.
 
 
 

Those tires are also gonna be flammable - just dump a Molotov cocktail on them and the plane will go up like a torch!

Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's (yahoo.com)
Since Vladimir Putin launched the invasion in February 2022, emigration out of Russia has exploded, with some estimates putting the exodus at 1 million people. A recent analysis from the policy platform Re: Russia narrowed the number to 817,000-922,000.
That's contributed to a record labor shortage, with 42% of industrial firms unable to find enough workers in July, up from 35% in April.
The composition of Russia's exodus also points to the best and brightest fleeing the country. While a barrage of Western sanctions incentivized many to leave for economic reasons, others fled to avoid military service, skewing the numbers toward younger Russians.
Workers under the age of 35 now account for less than 30% of the labor force, the lowest on record going back 20 years.
And according to a report from the French Institute of International Relations, 86% of those who have left Russia are under the age of 45, and 80% have a college education. At least 100,000 IT professionals moved out of Russia in 2022, a Kremlin official estimated last year.
In addition, data also suggest the Russians who fled were significantly wealthier, as nearly 11.5% of personal savings that were in Russian banks at the end of 2021 were were transferred abroad in 2022, amounting to about 4 trillion rubles ($41.5 billion).
A shrinking population of skilled professionals bodes ill for the Russian economy. When highly skilled workers leave, economic opportunities depart with them, which will bring Russia's living standards to the level of other former Soviet states, the Atlantic Council said in a report.
Without migration to fill the labor gap, and paired with declining birth rates, the Russian economy is expected to shrink.
In fact, the Atlantic Council estimated that Russia's GDP, as measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), will fall behind Indonesia's in 2026, nearly two years earlier than would've been the case had Putin not launched his war on Ukraine. By then, they will switch places as the world's sixth and seventh largest economies by PPP.
 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1698060278145945947.html
Russian government has cut off all payments to wounded and dead wagnerites. Oddly enough they are not very happy. I think there is very real risk for Putin here having thousands of these walking around with a grudge. Thread reader app link included above.

UKR Edition of Pimp My Ride
Holiday traffic jams while Russians return home after spending holidays in Ukraine.
Not to be forgotten as part of ongoing genocide by Russians.
 

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, while on a visit in France, told a story, how small group of 31 fighters maintained success in Robotyne, after weeks of unsuccessful assaults

...One Ukrainian unit had been conducting continuous assaults in this area of the front, and due to exhaustion and losses, at some point, this unit lost the ability to continue the offensive. And then "radical decisions" were made: the unit's leadership was changed.
New commander asked to assemble soldiers who were motivated and ready to perform combat missions. A combined group of 31 soldiers was created, a third of whom had no combat experience, but all of whom had the knowledge and will to win.
Thanks to the leadership of the commanders and sergeants, this group established "horizontal links" with neighbouring units and started working on the contact line. For 18 hours, they crawled literally on their stomachs through kilometres of minefields, where the Russians had placed six mines per square metre.
Finally, the unit reached a strip of trees dividing farmers' fields. Everyone in Ukraine knows this word - "posadka" ("tree-plant, tree-line"). It’s in these plantations, invisible on maps, that the greatest tragedies and heroism of the war take place. So, our unit drove the Russians out of there and held the position for two days until reinforcements arrived. Subsequently, this group walked another 10 kilometres with backpacks weighing 35-40 kilograms through minefields. They only had time to catch their breath briefly and immediately stormed the fortified Russian positions, drove the enemy out and held out until the main forces arrived.
In total, this unit conducted six assaults and two reconnaissance missions in 40 days. A group of 31 men did the work of an entire battalion, which should have consisted of about 400 men. The losses amounted to seven wounded, including only one seriously injured after stepping on a mine.
In fact, the work of this group made it possible for an entire brigade to attack Robotyne and liberate it after weeks of assaults.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/30/7417687/

Russian TG
Verbovoye can become the second Rabotino

UKR TGs (RUMINT)
- "Surovikin line" has been breached in four places
- part of Verbove already grey zone
- we have some succes in fields on east and south-east from Novoprokopivka
 

A testament to the quality of this thread:
it took 2814 pages before the subject of racism popped up. That must be a worldrecord for any thread on any forum these days.

This night Russia conducted retaliation combined strike with Shakheds and cruise missiles.
Loud night was in Kyiv too. Over the city and around were intercepted 20 aerial targets. Alas, in Kyiv parts of downed missile killes two citizens, also in Kyiv and oblast several citizens were injured by fragments of broken windows. 
Odesa was under attack two, reportedly 8 missiles were intercepted over the sea.
Total Russians have launched 28 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles (all were intercepted) and 16 Shakeds (15 were intercepted)

Reportedly factory "Kremniy EL" was hit, producing microelectronic parts, chips and semiconductors. 90 % of production uses in defense industry. Particularly in missiles Topol-M, Bulava, avionics of fighter jets MiG and Su, in SAMs S-300/400, Pantsyr S1 Russians claimed just downed drone fell on the factory

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/29/7417578/
Russian "authorities" in Tokmak prepare to leave city – Melitopol's mayor. 

Well, all good things can be used in bad ways, sure. All men have a penis, but we aren't all rapists, for example.
Ethnicity also isn't a binary - a person can legitimately be multiple things at once. I'm a Wellingtonian (which comes with a different set of assumptions than being either a Mainlander or an Aucklander, although neither of those distinctions probably mean much outside the country), and a Kiwi (similar but different to Australian), and sort-of British (somewhat similar but also very different to American), and sort-of European (different to Asian or African). None of them completely describe me, but all of them provide some degree of insight, depending on the audience. Theres nothing inherently racist about any of those categories, even though of course Wellingtonians are naturally superior to Aucklanders.

That will be a interesting day. Neptune has that sort of range? 
 
 

Small "nuke" after FPV drone of 14th mech.brigade hit Russian Msta-S. Location - near Sofiivka village, Luhask oblast, Kupiansk direction
Russian offensive on Kupiansk still bogging, though many experts say main goal was not new contact line along Oskol river (but desired), but to force Ukrainian command to move reserves here, which could be involved on the south or in some other place. Partially they could achieve this