Panzerfest

And then there is the minor quibble of being a deliberate warcrime.  At some point Ukraine is going to want justice (and/or compensation) for warcrimes Russia has committed.  Bad idea to throw away the high ground by blowing airliners out of the sky.
In this day and age Ukraine does not need some sort of antiquated (and expensive) massive “no-fly zone” that risks that kind of blowback.  The US already knows where the Russian military airfields are, and while military aircraft can technically land and refuel at a civilian airport, they cannot rearm and repair - if they did that then the airport is no longer civilian.
So a long range air denial capability need only establish no-fly over military airfields.  This is also, conveniently, when all military aircraft are forced to fly at “sub-Mach”.  We are basically talking about a platform that does what I suspect UK SOF have been doing for some time - go deep, lo profile and wait.  If the standoff is a couple hundred kms one could essentially deny military airfield operations.  Or better yet, arm them with FASCAM and mine the airfield on a regular basis.
That with some cyber and deep IA ops could really hurt the RUAF. This by the way would be a strategic campaign.  Ukraine really seems to be leaning into these to effect.  It is the one area they are getting better at while Russia is not.  Russia is basically doing what it has in the past, lobbing missiles at anything as more of a terror campaign than deliberate effects.  Kharkiv power plant has been pointed at as an example of Russia improving their game.  Maybe, but it took them over two f#cking years to hit a major power station that should have been obliterated on the first day.
 

The IDF is pretty much doing what it likes right now - do you care much ?  - and you expect the West to condemn some minor revenge attacks  by Ukraine on Russia ? Unless said attacks threaten somehow the stability of the  relationship between the West and  Russia/China  I can't see anyone caring much at all . Not sure why some folks on this board think the Rubicon has somehow been crossed .

I think Belgorod and all the border cities there should be attacked regularly. Depopulate the area as much as possible and create a nice buffer zone. Send in the Free Russia legion and have them mine the hell out of it on the sly. Rostov next please.
If we are worried about the US and Europe backing off, this kind of action provides at least an alternative (or practically speaking, compliments) proliferation.

If you see more videos from there, many of scared citizens say "we have to flee from the city". The citizens of European part of Russia cities have much more comfort life, than inhabitants of villages, small towns and depressive regions, which mostly enlisted to army. Do not shoot at the cities, this is the same as "do not provoke Russia" before a war. Every Russian MUST. MUST. MUST to feel that the war is fear, blood, dirt, loss of property. Not tells about endless victories "with small blood" onTV. Then maybe they can ask authorities - WHY? Because now they have moods "go,go,go, we are winining! Khokols, surrender!"  
But Belgorod really has many (around)military industry factories and military objects. What was a target - we don't know. Because all missiles were "intercepted by Russian AD in unpofessional way" %)
Official reaction of UKR command - "Belgorod suffered because of mistakingly Russian AD work"

I was a little hesitant to advertise my own tool here but... given that I actually promised to deliver it in this thread some 2000 pages ago, the cold season is now in full swing (time for making maps and actually playing CM!) ... and we were discussing means by which aliens would invade recently:
If you are interested in automatically generating maps from OpenStreetMap data, CMAutoEditor now has a profile for CMBS. "Automatically" means, CMAutoEditor converts OpenStreetMap data into CM tiles and generates the map by automatizing the clicking in the Scenario Editor.
Let's just keep in mind that depicting actual places in an actual war might be a sensitive topic, especially for the Ukrainian forumites, so be a little circumspect when doing that. Still, if it is not asking too much, if someone knows about good elevation data for Ukraine (i.e. not globally available satellite data like SRTM or ALOS), please contact me.
 

The only thing he leaves out is that the MAGA will cheerfully betray Ukraine to Putin, and then turn around and campaign against Biden for "letting Russia win".

Because it takes a lot more energy to land on the moon (no aerobraking), and it is much less interesting long term.
Speaking of more videogames people should play… Kerbal Space Program, the best and cheapest way to develop an intuitive understanding of orbital mechanics and navigation.

No. Each UKR soldier will tell you, that BTR-70 is a piece of sh...t in comarison with M-113/YPR-765
BTR-60/70/80 have too weak side hull armor, which can't maintain proper protection from 7.62 and often against 5.45 AP from close range, when M113 protects. Inner compartment of BTRs is too narrow for soldiers in modern equipment and body armor, because both and BTR and BMP series were designed in ColdWar era, when soldiers haven't such equipment and in design was put an avarage height of Soviet soldier in 1960-1970 as about 160-165 sm, this is one more answer, why RUS and UKR soldiers ride on the top of armor. Not only because if it hit, all will burn alive (it's enough exaggregation if it not 125 mm HE), but because of full squad of troops will waste value time, trying to disembark from narrow compartment under fire. So, UKR soldiers always ride inside M113 to enemy positions, because it much safer, and disembark time is much shorter, than from inside BTR-70
Enclosed turret of BTRs doesn't give enough protection, but instead strict natural LOS of gunner. M113/HMMMWV guneer can better to observe battlefield, when he gets targeting from comamnder or spot the target himself. 
One guy from "Azov" NG brigade wrote brigade try to get at least several dozens of M113 and he amazed, why it so hard. Even 3rd assault briagade "Azov", using M113/YPR, as he told indeed have very small of them and all M113, which you can see in their videos are the same several APC. 

I call it Tuberville-ism.

yep, being aware of inequities in society is gonna make us go broke.  Much easier to teach that slavery wasn't so bad.  Trying to understand the real continuing impact of slavery on our society is too woke.  You go Florida!

This is just getting sad. 

you should delete this if you have any sense whatsoever, and hope it wasn't seen by the east coast forum admins who are probably asleep

I am just going to walk past without getting involved in this but, should I drop any thing over my shoulder as I go maybe it can go towards drawing a line under this whole sub-thread?
...
Whoops!
Clumsy me!

This is ridiculous. This has already happened repeatedly through normal judicial processes following liberation of territories. I can’t think of a single proven example of extrajudicial violence against civilian collaborators by the Ukrainian government or military.

Why he have to be deported if he lived in Crimea before 2014? But all Russians, who came to Crimea after occupation are illegals and must leave Ukrainian territory. All their deals of real estate are legally void.
I suppose, if Crimea become a theater of warfare, they will just flee as most of local pro-Russian vatniks.

Do you have inner Ukrainan passport? Ukraine has opened Kolotylivka border crossing in Sumy oblast in order Ukrainin citizens could return to Ukraine without big circle through Europe. This checkpoint works only in one direction - from Russia to Ukraine. Also it uses for official exchanges of POWs and civilains, moved to Russia. 

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

yeah..... macgreggor , with a link to michael savage-  now  that's a real indication of truth, quality, and sanity.    my first use of the ignore button, ever. cool
 
cheers,
rob

Now the Falklands is a very good analogy for this war…lead with that one.  As to morale, well here we get into human collective certainty again.  Most wars are really collisions of human collective fiction, not based in physical reality.  “They are Muslim, we are Christian.”  “That is our land.”  “Our Sky Chicken told us to”.  These may be total fiction but they still have tremendous power.  If we give up on certainty it means we have to live with uncertainty and we do not like that at all.  Morale is really as much about clinging to a certainty as anything else.
For Russia they definitely are clinging to certainty and talked themselves into this whole thing.  As to RA morale, well something is holding it together, I will give them that.

I feel like I am pointing out the obvious here but listen to any other first person combat audio. That isn't the sound of a close range gunshot.

Almost all of them?
Late last year and early this year the was noticeable shift from deliveries being almost exclusively defensive and immediate use equipment, to a higher proportion of offensive and sustainment equipment, including a lot of engineering stuff (esp breaching)

The matter of far-right or "pseudo far-right" (better to call them populists) support of Russia is not so ideology, but Russian money.  Russia generously fertilized both left and right politics, activating them, when it needs. 
But Le Pen doesn't support Russia after 24th Feb, though she afraids, that victory of Ukraine can lead to WWIII. Prime minister of Italy, for example, is representative of right spectre, but her level support of Ukraine is increadable. Polish ruling party and goverment also of right spectre, but they support Ukraine.  
Why some (far-) right political organizations has pro-Russian or false "appeasemnet" (for the cost of Ukraine of course) positions? Isolationism became popular. "We have many problems inside, but current government is wasting our taxpeyers money and military resourses for senseless support of corrupted Ukraine!" Or "do not provoke WWIII!!!" And little of ideology - as I can see in tweets of western Russia-supporters, they respect Russia for "tradicionalistic values", "Christianity", "fighting with LGBT", "fighting with Jewish-Masons world conspiracy" and they see Ukraine like a dangerous puppet in hands of leftists and globalists (OMG!!!!). Though indeed level of conservatism in Ukraine is comparable to Poland or Hungary. 
My personnal big dissapointment is US Republicans, which always were hawks in relation to USSR and Russia (McСain for exanle) and now MAGA-isolationism and QAnon ate brain of half of them and their followers    
 

Bag of flour with a kicker charge + slight delay incendiary in an enclosed space = BFB.  Seriously one can blow up a concrete bunker.  Now if you really want to ruin someone’s day get some aluminum powder.

By the way, here are the most useful Ukrainian telegram channels covering the war that I've come across so far.

Are there some others that people might recommend? 

Official:
https://t.me/ministry_of_defense_ua
https://t.me/AFUStratCom
https://t.me/operativnoZSU
https://t.me/annamaliar
https://t.me/CinCAFU
https://t.me/DIUkraine
https://t.me/kpszsu
https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official
https://t.me/verkhovnaradaofukraine

Non-official:
https://t.me/DeepStateUA
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu
https://t.me/supernova_plus
 
Then, there's this list from the Kyiv Post:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/17868
12 Telegram Accounts to Follow for the Latest Ukrainian Counteroffensive News

There's also this list of non-telegram sources:
https://mediacenter.org.ua/trusted-sources/

It takes a younger generation indignant at the status quo with little materially to lose and little appreciation for the long term consequences to push for change. It takes the older generation to keep things in perspective that in fact change is a constant and progress even if slow does occur. Having been on both ends of that experience, I prefer being on the older end.  😎