Blazing 88's

in Bakhmut area HIMARS has struck on one of vehicles of EW complex "Borisoglebsk-2" - for supression of satellite communications and radionavigation systems (near miss, but probably damaged) and artillery radar Zoopark-1 (destroyed - one missile, not shown on video hit nearny aside, the second likely was more accurate)
 

Skirmish somewhere on southern front
 

Saving private Fox
 

3rd assault brigade continues to overcome Russian defense on the way to Klishchiivka. 
This fight in dense tree-palnt is really like Vietnam-jungle %) 
 

Nothing really interesting so far. AFAIR RU are moving units from Luhansk region. It looks like they are sacrificing their surprise offensive toward Kupaynsk to bolster defenses there. 
Mildly interesting news though is internal power struggle - looks like RU MOD is trying to grab control over the region + AFAIR Kadyrovcy are deploying there as well which is a problem for RU Nats (Chechens controlling RU city is very unpleasant for them for obvious reason) 

Map from fresh Mashovets post.

I'd want to emphasize that it appears we're in the offensive's counter-attacking phase. To avoid further penetration, RU is pulling forward reserves and increasing counter-pressure. But if RU does not roll back UKR in the following days, they most probably will have to retreat to the next line.

I know the full version of the press conference was already posted, but here is the part of it that a lot of people seemed to have noticed on Twitter. 😁
 

Panzermartin/Buschi  seem to have taken on the formal role of naysayers on this thread  . I guess seeing a reverse view of the same thing has its uses  .

Sorry but I don't think that's up to you to allow ignorant people to spread blatant disinformation. Please don't be so supportive of other people attempts to spread it.
The RU artillery inferiority was proven and confirmed by RU months ago. Nothing to discuss here.
Tank and ATGMs were deployed to compensate for artillery weaknesses. As a result, RU is now having problems with them as well, as agent Murz noted again a few days ago:
RU arty is weak, Capt is right. Your friend is wrong. You support his lie. I will not allow this lie to spread. End of story.

then we'll have AI controlled units that are designated to keep a road section clear so they go hunting the mines.  I think I'll not be overly excited at CM:Watch the Ai do all the stuff while you play minecraft or something

The situation is confusing; all sides are keeping quiet about what is going on, with the exception of Ru Nat reporters, who I believe are being deceived by RU the command.  I believe the RU situation is bad, but they are sort of holding the line by hurling reserves at UKR (first local reserves, now main) and because UKR are not advancing in real force. 
 
According to UKR, their pushes (including the fight with Bradly and Leo) frightened RU low-level commanders. They became anxious and began calling RU higher command, asking for any support they could get. The RU upper command became spoked and activated hidden arty batteries exposing them to UKR counter-battery fire.
 
RU aviation. UKR AA moves at a slow rate as well.
 
I am always surprised by the amount of RU copium from you. Let's look at what RU side does:
Russian defence chiefs have been mocked for claiming to destroy a German-supplied lethal Leopard 2 tank - when in fact they had blown up tractors in Ukrainian fields.
Let it sink in: RU MOD officially lies in the most blatant way possible (wheels are clearly visible). Nonetheless, you complain that we demand all RU claims to be validated, at the very least, with photos.
FFS, I do not accept even photos unless they are really clear. Recently RU destroyed another Patriot and even displayed a hazy photo of the Patriot launcher. Except it wasn't a Patriot launcher, but an IRIS-T launcher. They did not destroy it, they hit and damaged the IRIS radar (AFAIK it is fixed and working again)
Finally, shortly before the Bradly-Leopard fight, RU released hazy photographs of a destroied Leopard. Except it's not Leopard, but who knows what (maybe an AMX-10) and it might not be even destroyed.
Never accept RU word. Rarely accept RU photos. Demand full video. End of story. 
 
RU are experiencing severe shortage of shells (and ATGMs). RU arty is systematically destroyed by UKR CB becasue RU suck at CB (they cannot make proper CB radar). Capt is right - RU have issues with arty. End of story. 
 
Why probably? Right now, RU is sucking at several Directions, including Bakhmut and RU border territories (RDK raids). Worse, the primary plan they had for a defensive battle in the southern direction has collapsed since UKR are not advancing as RU expected. 
 
Ignorance is bliss, I guess. Back to reality: UKR emulated a big attack by performing recon in force (by platoons or 1-2 companies at most). For the cost of a few vehicles (a couple dozen Bradly/APCs and several Leopards at most), UKR managed to utterly confuse RU command and compel it to:
reveal the bulk of concealed artillery reserved for big UKR offensive begin deploying the majority of reserves (and now committing them to combat) commit aviation to battle I do not really understand all the fuss about UKR losses. 

The single muzzle flash isn't a red flag to me. I rarely saw our M16s flash when we went to the range, so I don't expect visible flashes to be very common during daytime. I'm more curious about why it would have flashed that one time then why none of the other shots resulted in a visible flash. Perhaps there is someone who knows more about gun physics? Perhaps there was additional gunk in the barrel that burned up on the first shot?
For my part, except for the obvious question of why there was a drone present to capture the footage in the first place, I'm inclined to think the video is genuine. Why stage it? What message could it be selling to what audience?

Funny cause given the same situation the RA has been unable to do as much in 8 months as the UA has done in a week.
I'd slow down and catch a breath.  You'll be needing to make a lot more excuses for Russian failure over the next weeks and months, no sense in wearing yourself out now.
 
Another possible reason for the lack of fires.
Russia bans use of large quantities of ammunition due to self-detonation – General Staff (yahoo.com)
 

You see how easy that was?  You have a bunch of possible indicators of the RA problem right there.  Artillery density is too light.  They kept it back because they know the line is too long so maybe they have gone with hardpoints.  Maybe the guns are wearing out and ammo is becoming an issue (lots of reports out of the Winter offensive on artillery issues).  None of these are "copium", they are viable answers to why we are not seeing guns in the initial contact videos...and none of them are good news for the RA.  Artillery is a critical component of this war and if the RA is running out or unable to concentrate it, at least not initially, well that is something to keep an eye out for.
Either way, this is not a doctrinal defence in the least.  Gun coverage is normally assigned directly to obstacles and is one of the first thing one sees in a breaching operations...it is why all them there tanks and stuff are made of metal.  Now will we see it deeper?  Well if we do then we know we are into the MDA of the RA. If we do not then there is something very bad happening to RA artillery support.
As to point #4 - I do not see a crafty RA master plan here, lets not go the other way - which has also been a cognitive disease in this war.  A sparsely defended initial line where an AH/ATGM crews got lucky and a UA fumble is not a reason to start thinking the RA is the master of the battlefield either.  If that entire Cbt Team got wiped out, bodies everwhere...(you know, kinda like all those RA offensives we saw for months?) then I would be far more concerned. 

There does not seem to be a way to  avoid seeing quotes from users I have blocked  . "mentions" does not seem to do it ?

UKR has more gear promised, so it can probably replace losses except for the mine clearing vehicles.  Interesting how obsessed everyone has been w this.  What matters is the bigger picture:  what are RU reserves doing?  How much engaged, how much left?  UKR making it clear that thinning the line anywhere is dangerous. 
There's also lots of worry about defensive lines.  But we don't know what's actually in those trenches.  I suspect they are mostly well defended, but we won't know until UKR gets there.  It's a very, very long line and only has to fail in a couple areas for the whole thing to be unhinged.

Yep, nice one.
 
 

Some our "armchair generals" already plan such things - to attack on the section Dniprorudne - Vasylivka, when the water will go further and the bottom will dry. 
But historically this wasn't flat place. This was a so-called "Great Meadow" - homeland of Zaporozhian Cossaks. The region of southands small rivers, creecks, tiny lakes - it in more modern times called "Dnipro plavni" - the meadows, which flooded after snow melting. 
Locals already are finding old artefacts on the bottom of reservoir. After the war it will be holiday for "dark archeologists" 
Old pistole or sawn-off rifle

Likely WWII German graves washed out by water
Wrecked vessel

The place of old bridge, I can't understand where it can be... There wasn't bridge between Nikopol and Kamyanka, only a ferry. Germans tried to build, but hadn't a time, only several concrete pierces were seen from water. 

And here is a fragment of German map for 1942 how looked this place, when water reservoir doesn't exist
 
 

I hope his silence will be as successful as John Cage's 4'33".

It's Ukraine %)
 

Russian "Lancet" destroyed wooden Leopard %) 
 

These sorts of reactions are delusional - Just stop it guys - The only thing that matters is the  operational level goals at this point . We should not be freaking out about tactical losses - these are guaranteed to happen .  I mean seriously - please restraint the doom and gloom posts and  just thanks your lucky stars you are not at the leading edge of these attacks . The Ukrainians are  the ones shedding their blood to retake their own territory back from the orcs  . Give them some room please ! .

No one can. My old Nokia made better vids than that. We have to wait for confirmation on the ground. As for every recon in force or attack setting I expect at least 30% loss rate. So yes we will see Leos burning sooner or later.

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