panzermartin

Well the issue is that this war is definitely of the old way, slow and grinding with sharp pulses.  Analysis needs phenomena to unpack and evaluate.  From that one can test assumptions and theories, or synthesize new ones. We only see a limited amount of actual new phenomena.  
We see lots of tweets of tanks getting blown up, or arty or aircraft or infantry but these are all tactical vignettes.  Sometimes these vignettes yield an insight but often they are just snapshots.  Russian bashing makes people feel better in a pretty uncertain time, so it is bound to happen.  In a bizarro world in Russia there probably is a small wargame company forum filled with people Ukraine/West bashing.
One thing that is becoming troubling is the lack of movement at Kherson.  UA is still projecting corrosive warfare on the Russian operational system but that system, though falling back, is still holding.  The theory was that fog-eating-snow would erode the RA forces on the wrong side of the river until they collapsed, much as they had done elsewhere, but that still has not fully developed.  I think we said that end-Oct the weather turns against the attacker, maybe early Nov.  So the UA might have 2-3 weeks to make gains, or at least gains that do not cost too much?  
Not sure what is happening but it is possible that ISR and precision are not enough, or maybe they need more precision mass.  Possibly not enough heavy mass, although we have seen little of that utility outside of Kharkiv.  Or maybe these things just take more time and the RA will fully collapse next week.  Either way if the RA can hold then we likely have to revisit the underlying theories and assumptions.  
All of this will take more solid data, and until we have that…well not much to do but wait.

Thanks, very true. I've recently reduced the time spent in this thread because I generally have the feeling it has devolved somewhat into a combination of memes, laughing at Russians and 'Murrican/NATO/Ukrainian weapons worshipping.
Re Russian mobiks: Do we know the Ukrainian side of the equation? I mean, being on the offensive doesn't say much about how sustainable the situation is, so looking at Russian effectiveness is only meaningful when also looking at, say, Ukrainian casualty rates.

Ok since previous post about adventures of sergeant 'Krzysztof X" from foreign legion became quite popular, I summarized second interview which appeared on 14 october. This time he talks about Kharkiv offensive. Note, he serves in multinational "special detachment" size of of weak platoon (Brits would probably call it "stick"), serving as recon/assault force.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEboMcDuojc&t=4s
Note I omitted some less relevant stuff, but it is still insenly detailed (in fact material for future recon campaign in CMBS...), so VERY long reading. But I think it is worth it, as we don't have too much first hand accounts and simply more people should hear story of these brave folks. Sorry for possible mistakes, I am treating this material as exercise in english and it took several days for half an hour each to compile. It may be slightly incoherent, but I hope it is undestandeable. Text in [] is my commentary.
 
Preparations:
-He claims Kherson offensive was real, but subsidiary from the start to northern one [ note- his personal opinion].
-Offensive in the north was set to begin on 1st September. There was not enough artillery ammo stocks though, so it was delayed for several days. Later they need to race with time, since Russians clearly started to sniff out something big is gonna happen and moved  reinforcments.
- They were called into different part of the front, and worked under new brigade along (in total) 5 special groups subordinated to it.
- His platoon attacked into Kupyansk direction, left of 80th Air Assault Bg. attacking Balaclava. They had insane schedule, with 3 consecutive days they were expected to be in: Vovkhyi Yar-Schevchenkove-Kupyansk. Guys did not believe when told about it and think it was a joke, as it was over 100 km and they barely moved hundred meters till now.

Breaking the front:
- His group was tasked with stealthy clearing paths though minefields for infantry, which they started day before. They worked whole day, get back for a supper, and worked again till middle of the night. Meanwhile assault infantry platoons started to arrive, which they hid in undisclosed space.
- Artillery and HImars started to work in the night "It felt like during WWII". At 4 AM they started to prepare attack, but were delayed again because of supporting tanks were stack for a while in some difficult marshy terrain- also Russians clearly were alarmed by that time, and one RU tank  randomly shoot at their location. Ukrianian tank engaged it.
-They modified plan, but thanks to elastic command it was easier to do [they are special platoon, accustomed to swift decision making unlike rest of common infantry- note how flexible are lower commanders there]. They used a dry gorge (ukr. yar) to get into enemy Observation Point on small hill over it. They pushed sentries back, made corridor and leave attack into infantrymen hands. Specials moved back to rest.
Breaking front lines:
-Russian lines started to crack very quickly in the night. They inexpectedly were awakaned and ordered to mov into breakththough by 5 cars. It was very chaotic environment- a lot of debris, detroyed bridges and sappers [it seems engineers followed special groups before mechanized infantry]. Russians prepared lots of false roads that lead into minefields [interesting detail- again important factor is good driver and spotters]. They somehow successfully passed Vovkhyi Yar roads in light pickups over uncleared roads, but 2 heavier BTR's following them were lost on mines.
-They stayed there for night. They had very vague orders to recon and destroy enemy where possible; platoon commander took decision on his own behalf to try more aggressive recon and thanks to this they reached Schevchenkove by midday. There were so many civilians greeting them, kissing and giving food they had obstructed the road. Guys moved so much forward they lost contact with main column and had no idea if they were followed by heavier forces or were in the town on their own, till they met another group of SSO. They together formed small detachment of 6 with a drone that started to penetrate town itself. Two of his soldiers (Czech and Italian) were so elevated by advance that they cleared several hundred meters of Russian trenches around the town by night(!), without NVG, and not even knowing if main UA force being present behind them [ "blitzkrieg rush" is evident here]
-By 3rd day they moved to Kupyanks road- there they witnessed Russian armour running, but were unable to lay proper ambush due to belts of mines being set along the main roads several kms sideways; they couldn't even shoot with Javelin [another curious aspect- since RU have no infantry to secure roads, they prepared deep obstacles for ambushers along routs of advance  escape].
-Then they moved directly into Kupyansk road, moving in column of several civilian cars and one Cossack armoured car. They passed several checkpoints with abandoned muscovite armour [note they had no knowledge if they will be defended. Extremely risky move]. They reached last checkpoint on hills before Kupyansk, there they fall into ambush on masked bunkers. Fortunatelly, their brigade commander observed it by drone [note they had direct connection to Brigade command] so after sharp firefight they managed to withdraw, their Cossack car being damaged. They laid Javelin ambush just in case and called for support from SSO. Then they participated in failed probing attack on Russian lines, during which SSO offcier was WIA and Russian armour successfully blocked their advance; supporting Ukrainian tank and BTR's run dry on ammo. Only by third attempt on 4 PM they finally cleared the hill and Russian bunkers, with the help of arriving infantry and one more BTR [they stormed it from 10 am and fortifications were probably made from concrete; it could be close to Blahodativka village perhaps?]. The guy was very surprised he survived those days.

-Russian soldiers they encountered there where better equipped than average muscovites; they used for example individually cut bullets "false dum-dum",  also fought very stubbornly. Then he laughingly thanks Russians for providing so much supplies, from excellent food [unusual statement...he means "Spetsnaz military ratios", perhaps better than average🤔] to ammo and equipment.
-Front was very porous by that time, forests and hills around the city far from cleared, and Ukrainian forces behind often fall into ambushes or pinned in meeting engagements. Overal sense of chaos was constant, but very high morale due to presence of cheering civilians pushed them constantly forward ("one more village" syndrome). The more stories they heared from locals, like all young males being arrested and kept for months in small cells,the more were motivated to push- they expected Russians to start killing them like in Bucha [correctly- note many victims from previous massacres were murdered just before liberation, so speed was essential].
-After one day of rest they crossed Oskil river. They did several crossings together with other special other special groups and Kraken unit; spearhead believed they were pushing forward, but were in fact turned back and crossed the river again at Kupyansk alone [clearly Ukrainian command wanted to fool RU as to where main crossing will be]. There endured very heavy bombings by aircraft with case ammunition.
Street battles:
-Battles in Eastern Kupyanks were extremely heavy and lasted several hellish days, with meters between combatants; Russians there were visibly better soldiers than average, truly professionals [visible respect for adversary not present before]. Numerous civilian casualties lied everywhere, especially around the bridge, with people murdered by small arms; probably Russians tried to disperse crowds. Many others died due to artillery and mortars, but they still met civilians trying to find some food [insane, but corroborated by other accounts- due to speed of offensive, Kupyansk was full of civilians during fighting].
-Lines were intermingled and subjected to constant barrage, so a lot of city infrastructure and housing was destroyed. Tactically it was "fire and movement" in urban maze, enforcing fast and constant change of position by small teams unlike anything Western armies did before, often jumping over high fences just to find their previous position being blown by mortars seconds later [clearly Russian had good view and zeroed fires on them, hunting eevry team and soldier they could find]. They could only find short rest in cellars, but these could turn into traps if Russians found them. At nights they let several times Russian tanks and wave of infantry to pass them, later armour being detroyed at close range in the city center. Russians were occassionaly so close their KIA lied directly over and behind Ukrainian positions.
-Russians were very keen on capturing the city, since they still had units left on western bank and only two avenues of escape. Active defense and movement is king of the game in war like this, with large spaces between positions. Thus any army, including Western ones, would fight war of manouvre in such conditions- fortunatelly in this war Russians lacked infantry to "grab and hold" terrain.

-More strategic thoughts- he doesn't think Russian soldier, despite being cruel and ruthless to civilians, is necessarly "mobilized peasant". Some are like that, but many he met were well led professionals knowing their job. Also people at home laughing about Putin's mobilization should consider the influx of infantry, even weak one, will have significant effect on RU ability to hold terrain (especially urban) and plug holes at the front, thus changing nature of war into more linear and static. Once they will be there in mass, It will be more and more difficult for UA special teams to infiltrate the lines, and even recruits with guns can turn any urban fight into nightmare. He generally warns against treating RU mobiks lightly, as disregard for enemy is what started this war in first place [ very good point, btw; I think we sligthly slipped into echo chamber laughing at examples of Russian mobiks being drunk or send into meatgrinder. In favourite conditions, even dying by hundreds, they can make a difference].

-After several days they started to push Russians out of the city toward forests, where they set their positions. Ukrainian assault groups needed to cross more open spaces there, meeting massive barrages of artillery fire. He refuses to tell what they did to avoid them [probably they had Russians tapped somehow, allowing them to "chase off" fire]- it was constant movement to avoid heavy fires and find some cover, with enemy trying to trap them between lines of progressing creeping barrages. In the end they managed to secure enemy positions, and were called off to R&R. All that time they slept very little and were extremely tired.

-Asked for casualties- refuse to tell real numbers, but grimly give Zelensky's number of magnitude of ca. 50 soldiers dying daily as roughly correct; his platoon also suffered combat lossess he refuse to elaborate on. Russian lossess are hard to tell, but were visibly higher than Ukrainian judging by numbers of left dead bodies. Some were lost in doomed Russian assaults that were conducted poorly due to lack of infantry [I suppose too many armour charging blindly forward]. There was also a lot of POW's that will be used as bargaining chip. Russians in turn seem to not taking foreign volunteers as prisoners, which every legionaire should be concious about before he joins [based on Russian nationalistic channels, it can be largely true].
-At the end, he laughs at Shoigu complaining at "Polish mercenaries from under Kharkiv"; there are barely several Poles on entire front, but during one particulary heavy barrage he started to nervously call somebody in native language by radio on open waves, which was intercepted by the enemy and started this legend of "two brigades of Poles" [entirely believeable; Russians and their complexes...😎]
-They spend some days behind the front, but now are again going into recon missions on northern front and hunting Russians. Despite casualties, spirits are very high, especially thanks to civilians they liberated. Many units participating in the offensive are very tired and have used equipment; for example, their 5 cars are junk demanding complex reapair. They are also in need of spare barrels for their carbines [he personaly use GROT but with longer barrel, unsuitable for close combats they often participate in] and exchange for broken NVG's. Still, volunteers and Ukrainians are optimistic as to how the war is going, especially compared to gloomy June.
 
Ok, end for now. If I see other interesting interviews I will try to post them.
 

Somebody found Strelkov. Geolocated to Rostov, despite claims he was in Donbas.
[sorry for rudeness, but he looks like he would just found a "street lady"😎. Ukrainians are already joking about it.]
Previous raid was planned by Boris Johnson himself. Brits don't quit so easily.

The ghosts of Zaporizhzhia. 

Some facts about Shakhed-131 (smaller brother of 136 with 10-15 kg warhead) and -136 after their remains research by UKR engineers:
1. Engine (in Shaked-136).  German-develped Limbach L550E for small aircrafts. Clones produce in China and Iran (likely China was a source). This is air-cooled 4-cylynder horyzontally-opposed two stroke engine with displacement 548 cc and 50 hp
2. Navigation. Drones are not guided, they fly by coordinates and have GPS (CRPA) and inertial navigation system. GPS is default. It has protection against GPS-jammers/spoofing. If drone is losing GPS signal, inertial system is turning on and the drone continue a flight, but can have course errror 5% of traveled route. When GPS signal is renewed, GPS-navigation turning on again and drone is conducting course correction
3. Electronics. Flight control block of Shakhed-131 composed from five boards with processors TMS320, F28335 from Texas Instruments. Shakhed-136 - CPU marking is removed, but due to architecture it matched to Altera/Intel product. Some types of Korean chips are present of Shakhed-136 board
4. Manufactiring. One of factories, which produce theese drones (as well as Mohajer-6) was built in Tajikistan by China, use Chineese technology and controlled by Chineese
Sources:  https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/an_advanced_radio_communication_device_on_american_processors_found_in_the_shahed_136-4446.html (in English)
  https://techno.nv.ua/innovations/drony-kamikadze-shahed-136-50277597.html 
https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ne_tilki_shahed_136_zjavilos_detalne_doslidzhennja_sche_odnogo_iranskogo_drona_kamikadze_jakij_vikoristovuje_rf-9033.html (here pdf file with detailed report with photos of Shakhed-131 components)
Communication board of Shakhed-136

Shakheds don't fit for HIMARS hunting. They suitable only for stationery object attacks. There were dozen cases when they appeared on frontline, when they destroyed some number of our atrillery pieces and trucks, but all theese strikes were successfull only because targets were found as long-time standing. HIMARSes either move, or hide. 

I get some harkonen vibes from the new Russian commander 

I get some harkonen vibes from the new Russian commander 

I get some harkonen vibes from the new Russian commander 

I get some harkonen vibes from the new Russian commander 

Or all he really wants is sharks with freaking laser beams on their heads....

They are trying to hit the power plant, but they can't seem to find it.

Former chief commander of  DPR https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

The USSR became what it became because Hitler waged a total war of annihilation on them. A lazy, incompetent and backwards military that couldn't find its way in the Lapland forests and was humiliated, was forcibly transformed to a fearful giant army to cope with an existential threat. It remains to be seen if Russia will transform under this new threat or they will collapse. I see no signs of the first to be honest... 
 

Er, distances on the globe are not affected by Russian propaganda. Unless google map is wrong, the shortest distance from Ukraine to Moscow is around 275 miles, Latvia to Moscow is 360 miles.
True but it can restrict Russian access to the black sea, especially if it controls Crimea.
Which of those weapons were tested in any near-peer conflict?
How so?
 
Gas from Norway will be delivered via pipeline. But a number of LNG terminals are being constructed in addition. Norway can't replace all Russian gas in the EU. If the additional gas will come from the US will be determined by the market but the chances have certainly increased.
 
But it doesn't matter what they want to do. They just don't have the means to.

There is no evidence of Russia ability to threaten conventionally the rest of Europe. It's crystal clear that they lacked the will and readiness to wage a war of a larger scale and had only hoped for a quick collapse. Now their impotency is right in front our eyes. No doubt it's also thanks to tenacious fight of the Ukrainians. But what army that wants to conquer the world is drunk, deserter, and abandons brand new equipment in the woods? That's not the way Wehrmacht conquered Europe. 
Will mobilization change this? I doubt. 
Yes there is the nuclear threat remaining but that takes two to tango and if the West does not want to dance, it won't happen. Some  here want to but thankfully they are in the minority. 
 
 
 

Let's not imply imperialistic motives, otherwise this leads nowhere productive. 
But let's also not be naive. Of course the US have interests beyond just doing The Right Thing™ - which is probably true for many or all other countries.
The USA are the only remaining superpower and want to stay it, so although costs are by no means to be neglected, some benefits are obvious:
* A soon to be NATO member that otherwise would have had a very slim chance of becoming one any time soon.
* Said NATO member at the southern flank of Russia, with (I think?) shortest range to Moscow so far. With all the geostrategical benefits this position brings.
* Another good position for a missile shield?
* A bit replacing Turkey, which was somewhat unreliable of late, in the role of guarding this side of Russia/the black sea
* An opportunity to test the latest weapons, sensors, concepts, you name it, without risk to US soldiers.
* Keeping Russia down (which had shown ambitions to become a superpower again at some point)
* A much more close knit NATO than before
* Cheap Russian gas and oil is no longer a competition to US energy exports
* ...
Most of this is also a benefit to NATO but NATO was always dominated by the US (by design, and I think the rest of NATO was usually happy with that arrangement).
Still, let's not forget that it was Russia who attacked Ukraine and not the other way round. That doesn't change just because others benefit from it.

Well primarily the one orchestrating the UA operations and funding with billions of aid, US. UK and the rest european countries follow. 

A good point about safe lake - RU for some reason believes NATO will use Black Sea to convinetly bypass RU land defenses to invade or use Black Sea as convenient maritime way of supporting NATO troops marching deep into RU South. So, from their point of view securing UKR shore secures RU flank.

I can't speak for Japan. For Germany I think especially some US forum members seem to misunderstand the role the Allies played in bringing about the change in German culture.
To start with, I'm not sure how much of a cultural change there actually was between, say, 1930 to 1960. The Nazis were not elected because Germans believed in all this aryan superiority nonsense or were convinced of the need for war for Lebensraum. They were elected because Germany was among the countries hit hardest by the worldwide economic crisis and had stopped trusting in the democratic system that was known for petty power squabbles and being unable to keep public order. Under the Nazis the economical situation improved, there was work for everyone, people could even go on vacations. Some lost territory was "reintregated" ... as some historian put it: had Hitler died in mid '39 he'd be counted among the greatest German leaders today. Still, there was no enthusiasm for war whatsoever at that time. Also the society was not nearly as "nazified" as Hollywood wants to make us believe. On the countryside it was still pretty much the church who ruled daily life. There was antisemitism, yes, but only up to a point. Public violence was still frowned upon (well, don't look, don't tell and all). In short, the hardcore nazis were more of a minority, most were chameleons, conformists, people who adapted to the system and were most interested in living their lives without being bothered. Don't get me wrong, many thought that Hitler had some good points. Antisemitism and some sense of superiority was common sense at the at the time and the Germans hadn't forgotten the Versailles contracts and the humiliation. Of course after the victory over France many held Hitler high regard. But they were not hardcore ideological Nazis.
Having survived the war and the chaos in the years directly after, the Germans wanted to just get on with their lives.
Denazification didn't really happen, at least not by the Allies. The Nuremberg trials did make sure that noone could say afterwards he didn't know. While they were a powerful sign that regimes could be held accountable for their deeds, it also gave the common German a bunch of scapegoats. Denazification among the common population was effectively rather symbolic. Most importantly the whole civil service was left largely untouched - our third chancellor, Kiesinger, had been a somewhat higher ranking Nazi. At least that quickly enabled a functioning state (compare to Iraq...). The civil servants functioned in the new system just as well as in the old system.
Generally, people knew of the war and what had happened at that time (although many claimed otherwise). But it was not spoken about. Former Nazis rarely ended in court because most of the judges had already been judges under the Nazis. And because the Germans didn't want to be reminded of the time and their deeds, people who tried were generally being frowned upon or even seen as traitors.
This really only changed with the next generation who suddenly demanded to know what their parents had done. That is what brought about a slow(!) change in culture.
What was vastly more important than denazification was what became known as the economic miracle. The Germans profited from the new system, their lives became objectively better. This is also where the US come into play: The Marshall plan, while strictly speaking did not do that much in reality (in the and it was all paid for by Germany), was brilliant because those signs everywhere "built with the help of the Marshall plan" connected the new good life with the Allies and the West in general. Then there was France (under de Gaulle) who extended their hands in friendship, the Queen came for a visit and all that. And then of course we discovered that we can just go on vacations if we want to see other countries 😉

Except, of course, that is exactly what happened. The Marshall and Morgenthau plans were actively being debated while the biggest battles of WWII were still being waged. The debate continued post war, and Marshall wasn't formally adopted till '48, but the start of it was no later than 1944.

Agreed.

I agree It doesn't have a made in USA stamp. But that doesn't mean that some 3rd party couldn't have done this under their guidance. If a single country expressed publicly their annoyance with the nord stream that was US through very official voices, Biden, Nuland etc...
Is Russia that irrational? Maybe. Until now they hesitated to admit they are blackmailing EU with the gas by referring to technical issues. Now they blow up everything like an angry madman. There must have been some very important motive to do this. Blackmail Europe further through the ukrainian pipeline? It didn't work so far. Divide Europe and USA? An internal matter between energy companies in Russia and the deep state?
Doesn't make much sense to destroy a valuable asset for ever, a negotiating card and a symbol of their prosperity and bridge with Europe. What is next, they will blow up their Kerch bridge 🙄