LongLeftFlank

Thanks to you and the other commenters here.
While an admirer of Chinese civilisation (and food and women) since uni, I have been a China skeptic since the mid-2000s, for many of the same reasons you guys cite here.
But like Jim Chanos, I finally have to capitulate and admit that, whatever the flaws, wastage and corruption associated with CPC rule, the cult of Great Helmsman Xi, Han supremacist repression at home, harsh mercantilism and sharp dealing abroad, real estate binging, countless infra white elephants, manufacturing overcapacity and all that...
... China is now a behemoth at making and pushing out stuff on demand, the likes of which the world hasn't seen since Colt's weapons wowed the smug Europeans at the 1851 Crystal Palace.
And that sheer capacity, while it isn't all-powerful, is a macro reality we need to factor into everything now, especially since we cannot at present collectively summon the will to match it.
Hence my raising it on this thread.  I truly hope that the Russians boll%x it up again (whatever It turns out to be), and that the Ukrainian heroes don't end up as the martyred canaries in our coal mine. They have earned better from us.

Thanks to you and the other commenters here.
While an admirer of Chinese civilisation (and food and women) since uni, I have been a China skeptic since the mid-2000s, for many of the same reasons you guys cite here.
But like Jim Chanos, I finally have to capitulate and admit that, whatever the flaws, wastage and corruption associated with CPC rule, the cult of Great Helmsman Xi, Han supremacist repression at home, harsh mercantilism and sharp dealing abroad, real estate binging, countless infra white elephants, manufacturing overcapacity and all that...
... China is now a behemoth at making and pushing out stuff on demand, the likes of which the world hasn't seen since Colt's weapons wowed the smug Europeans at the 1851 Crystal Palace.
And that sheer capacity, while it isn't all-powerful, is a macro reality we need to factor into everything now, especially since we cannot at present collectively summon the will to match it.
Hence my raising it on this thread.  I truly hope that the Russians boll%x it up again (whatever It turns out to be), and that the Ukrainian heroes don't end up as the martyred canaries in our coal mine. They have earned better from us.

Tank explosion grogs /rolleyes
(Tank explosion connoisseurs?)
You remind me of this
https://xkcd.com/2535

By giving Russia a greater edge?
Russian generalship is currently one of Ukraine's greatest ally, because all reformers pushing for quality improvement in the Russian Army are grassroots. Nationalist volunteers and such. The more these people get ignored, the better for Ukraine, and the current Russian high officer corps is ignoring them very handily.

Thanks to you and the other commenters here.
While an admirer of Chinese civilisation (and food and women) since uni, I have been a China skeptic since the mid-2000s, for many of the same reasons you guys cite here.
But like Jim Chanos, I finally have to capitulate and admit that, whatever the flaws, wastage and corruption associated with CPC rule, the cult of Great Helmsman Xi, Han supremacist repression at home, harsh mercantilism and sharp dealing abroad, real estate binging, countless infra white elephants, manufacturing overcapacity and all that...
... China is now a behemoth at making and pushing out stuff on demand, the likes of which the world hasn't seen since Colt's weapons wowed the smug Europeans at the 1851 Crystal Palace.
And that sheer capacity, while it isn't all-powerful, is a macro reality we need to factor into everything now, especially since we cannot at present collectively summon the will to match it.
Hence my raising it on this thread.  I truly hope that the Russians boll%x it up again (whatever It turns out to be), and that the Ukrainian heroes don't end up as the martyred canaries in our coal mine. They have earned better from us.

Farewell to all that Arsenal of Democracy chest-pounding, I'm afraid, gents. Western military power has always been  'firstest with the mostest' since at latest Lepanto. But we now stand on the threshold of profound change, and we have nobody to blame but ourselves.
...While the West retains a large edge in innovating tech cuz "our Freedomz", it's the Chinese manufacturing behemoth that can flood the planet with cut-price fit-for-purpose knockoffs of anything you can hit with a stick, long before our 'shareholder value' guys can even roll out the first generation.
Their capacity -- including sophisticated supply chains -- is now an order of magnitude beyond  the West's remaining heavy manufacturing centres in Korea, Germany and US-Mexico. The ramp rates are mind boggling now. And as with cars, batteries and wind turbines, so with miltech.

The Chinese state also can, and will, keep surplus heavy industrial capacity on the shelf for decades. Short of buying off China Inc. to supply our team instead, I just don't see how this changes.
Rebuttal?
@Butschi, @poesel, anyone?

 

Farewell to all that Arsenal of Democracy chest-pounding, I'm afraid, gents. Western military power has always been  'firstest with the mostest' since at latest Lepanto. But we now stand on the threshold of profound change, and we have nobody to blame but ourselves.
...While the West retains a large edge in innovating tech cuz "our Freedomz", it's the Chinese manufacturing behemoth that can flood the planet with cut-price fit-for-purpose knockoffs of anything you can hit with a stick, long before our 'shareholder value' guys can even roll out the first generation.
Their capacity -- including sophisticated supply chains -- is now an order of magnitude beyond  the West's remaining heavy manufacturing centres in Korea, Germany and US-Mexico. The ramp rates are mind boggling now. And as with cars, batteries and wind turbines, so with miltech.

The Chinese state also can, and will, keep surplus heavy industrial capacity on the shelf for decades. Short of buying off China Inc. to supply our team instead, I just don't see how this changes.
Rebuttal?
@Butschi, @poesel, anyone?

 

That's a bit harsh.
In WWII at least, those "effete slow liberal democracies" had to resort to some authoritarian measures. Mandatory conscription, rationing, curfews, Nisei concentration camps, something called the War Powers Act in the US (I presume UK/ANZAC had something similar), to name a few.
Not sure I would call Korea a win, not sure I would call the Cold War a war, and the Gulf War adversary was in a whole different league.
Not that I disagree with the point, slow and steady wins the race, as the saying  goes. It's just unfortunate that bureaucracy is a necessary evil for an open, rule-of-law democracy.

Article in English about preliminary researching of ballistic missile parts (tail part of one of missiles remained in quite large fragments), which has struck Kharkiv several days ago. It is similar to Iskander-M, but has some differences. Diameter is on 10 mm more, assembling quality is much worse, erased factory mrks on many parts, no EW system, etc. But to make final conclusion that this is N.Korean missile need to conduct additioanal researhes
  https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/6/7436148/

But I agree with Zeliban. 
Evil Axis Russia - N.Korea - Iran with proxies backed by China is growing own strength month by month, arming each other and igniting conflicts, threating to West sensitive areas (Gaza, Red Sea)
Russia expanded own "Shadow Axis" - BRICS, several days ago Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Ethiopia joined to this organisation, so BRICS countries now control 45 % of world oil 
US claimed: N.Korea will regret if hands over ballistic missiles to Russia
N. Korea: handed over
US: we will put personal sanctions on persons, responsible for this and will call UNSC meeting to blame this
UK: This is a victory! We forced Russia to walk with outstrached hand! They beg missiles in N,Korea and Iran!
Ukraine: soooo, but how it help us? N.Korea gave missile to Russia "stretched hand". Can we get at last ATACAMS, BGM-109 and Taurus?
West: this may cause escalation.Maybe will be better if we help you to produce 155 mm shells? Through the year or two...
N.Korea: shelled S.Korea territory with artilelry
Evil Axis (chorus): Yes, we are fu...g nuts. And what will you do to us?
West: sinking in 1000 round tables and deep concernings  
Alas, in situations "tough times demand tough solutions" liberal democracy is too slow in comparison with authocraties and dictatorships
 
 

Just going to pull on this one because frankly this is becoming a waste of time - we sent one dooms day cultist on vaycay and we get another right behind him.
But let’s unpack your expertise on reconstruction business for just as second.  Hmm, now I wonder just how scared US and western businesses were in Iraq and Afghanistan.  We poured hundreds of billions into those two countries and western companies lined up to get in on it…saw em with my own eyes.
But for “reasons” cruise missiles are somehow scarier than getting one’s head sliced off by insurgents or IED’d.  
Let me as blunt as I can be - you do not know what you are talking about.  Nothing in what the US just said points to abandonment of Ukraine.  Nor would a shift toward self-sustainment somehow chase off all support.  Why?  Because money talks. It actually makes a lot of sense and has been the long term playbook for partners globally since the 90’s.
But clearly you are in the Zeleban camp where everything is falling apart and the end is inevitable.  I strongly support what we are doing in this war.  I support a free independent and secure Ukraine.  Ukrainian resistance and then defence will go down in history as one of the great military actions.  
But every time someone from your end of things comes in here and plays this same old song - I do not want to call my MP and demand greater support for Ukraine.  I want to call them and say we should “cut and run” because if this is what Ukrainian steadfast resolve looks like we are likely backing another bad partner.
Now, I know that you, nor Zeleban represent your people.  For some reason we are collecting these types but I see Ukraine fighting and defending itself under extreme duress everyday.  I see people make sacrifices and staring into that abyss with resolve and determination.  Pull yourself together and honour what they are doing.  You do them no service coming here and pushing this sort of outright disinformation.  
I honestly miss kraze at this point.

The generous response to this would be 'you are reading too much into the article - that's not what it says'.  In the UK we have a less generous, single-word response that I think is probably more appropriate, though.
 
Fixed that for you.
 
You do seem to spend a lot of your time intentionally 'interpreting' what people write in order to fit your 'all is lost' narrative.
The point of the response you laughed off here was, I think, to ask what Ukraine's plan is?  For the first year or so, Ukraine were in panicky, dear-god-they're-invading-help-please-send-whatever-you-can mode.  Where is Ukraine now?  Two years in, what is Ukraine's strategy for winning this war?  Surely it's not to rely on free equipment sent in by foreign nations?  I mean, I think Ukraine can rely on US/EU providing as much support as they can (given the various other factors at play) but it would be idiotic to rely on that and make no other plans to defend your country, right?  Perhaps if we knew more from Ukraine about what they are trying to do then we could all offer more insightful opinions as to how the US/EU could help.
 
Your apparent understanding of how Western European people think is frankly stunningly inaccurate.
To be blunt, people in Western Europe don't give a solitary, flying **** about Russia.  They don't.  No-one talks about Russia, worries about Russia or even less considers Russia's strength when they go to the ballot box.  Ask people in the UK about Russia and they will talk about Salisbury, the World Cup and the ongoing war with Ukraine.  Some of them might remember 2014.  A few more will remember the Kursk tragedy because the Russians turned down British help to rescue the crew.  Beyond that it's probably all Yeltsin and pre-90s stuff.
What you think seems to be a reflection of Russia's own internal propaganda line -  that the West spends all its time envying and plotting against the mighty Russian people.  It's just bollocks (oh, there we are - the one-word response made it into print after all).

I am not sure the distinction between Chinese and US focus on AI development is correct.
LLMs are hip and trendy (for very good reasons) and so everyone who does anything AI looks for ways to leverage LLMs for whatever products they have. One main driver of AI development is autonomous driving where Waymo (Google) and Cruise (GM) are top players and US based. Google smartphones use AI for a lot of stuff, too. On the other hand, China doesn't only do consumer electronics and hardware. They have huge social media platforms (that just aren't used widely outside of China), and of course they use AI for social scoring (in other words, spying on their people).
Btw, no idea if LLMs specifically are useful for drone operations. As the first L in LLM implies, those models have billions of parameters and are therefore quite resource hungry. So I guess you either use stripped down versions or edge computing (meaning that your computation heavy stuff runs in a computing center and only data collection is done on the device itself).

I've backed off posting a little cuz work, probably to the relief of some here.
But this piece, while not directly war related, is interesting, as China's ability to innovate, refine and mass-manufacture/export is a key megatrend to keep tracking soberly (i.e. without either exaggerating or dismissing):
https://tphuang.substack.com/p/ai-approach-differences-between-china
People often comment that China has turned to mature chip fabs as a result of October sanctions. I would say they always had plans to massively expand mature chip productions. The market for these “mature chips” in future AI controlled consumer electronics product and machines are enormous...
China is at the forefront of consumer electronics and robotics product, so its focus on LLMs are driven by how to make its consumer electronics and robotics product smarter. So, making hard tech better.
American tech companies are the leaders of search, e-commerce, social media and apps. So, its focus on LLMs are focused on how to make these soft tech products better...
As many have observed here, the Ukraine war already has the makings of a test-bed and laboratory for next generation miltech, much like the Spanish Civil War (albeit without the Condor Legion/Italian CTV).
PS: I'm not suggesting 'glorified autocomplete' (LLM) extrapolates directly to fully autonomous drones or slaughterdogs. But the general focus of Chinese industry on using AI programming to enhance the performance of physical devices was an interesting insight to me.

I've backed off posting a little cuz work, probably to the relief of some here.
But this piece, while not directly war related, is interesting, as China's ability to innovate, refine and mass-manufacture/export is a key megatrend to keep tracking soberly (i.e. without either exaggerating or dismissing):
https://tphuang.substack.com/p/ai-approach-differences-between-china
People often comment that China has turned to mature chip fabs as a result of October sanctions. I would say they always had plans to massively expand mature chip productions. The market for these “mature chips” in future AI controlled consumer electronics product and machines are enormous...
China is at the forefront of consumer electronics and robotics product, so its focus on LLMs are driven by how to make its consumer electronics and robotics product smarter. So, making hard tech better.
American tech companies are the leaders of search, e-commerce, social media and apps. So, its focus on LLMs are focused on how to make these soft tech products better...
As many have observed here, the Ukraine war already has the makings of a test-bed and laboratory for next generation miltech, much like the Spanish Civil War (albeit without the Condor Legion/Italian CTV).
PS: I'm not suggesting 'glorified autocomplete' (LLM) extrapolates directly to fully autonomous drones or slaughterdogs. But the general focus of Chinese industry on using AI programming to enhance the performance of physical devices was an interesting insight to me.

I've backed off posting a little cuz work, probably to the relief of some here.
But this piece, while not directly war related, is interesting, as China's ability to innovate, refine and mass-manufacture/export is a key megatrend to keep tracking soberly (i.e. without either exaggerating or dismissing):
https://tphuang.substack.com/p/ai-approach-differences-between-china
People often comment that China has turned to mature chip fabs as a result of October sanctions. I would say they always had plans to massively expand mature chip productions. The market for these “mature chips” in future AI controlled consumer electronics product and machines are enormous...
China is at the forefront of consumer electronics and robotics product, so its focus on LLMs are driven by how to make its consumer electronics and robotics product smarter. So, making hard tech better.
American tech companies are the leaders of search, e-commerce, social media and apps. So, its focus on LLMs are focused on how to make these soft tech products better...
As many have observed here, the Ukraine war already has the makings of a test-bed and laboratory for next generation miltech, much like the Spanish Civil War (albeit without the Condor Legion/Italian CTV).
PS: I'm not suggesting 'glorified autocomplete' (LLM) extrapolates directly to fully autonomous drones or slaughterdogs. But the general focus of Chinese industry on using AI programming to enhance the performance of physical devices was an interesting insight to me.

I admit it, it is very funny...  😂🙃

Ah, so that is what happened?  I guess from that particular layman’s perspective the trajectory of the RA does appear upwards.  They sucked in the initial invasion and have been sucking less and less up through the summer offensive.
The problem with a layman’s assessment is that it ignores the deeper causal issues.  So here is a quick  and dirty professional assessment:
- Russian operational and strategic quality has been a factor in this war but it is secondary.
- The primary factor driving outcomes is fundamental shifts in the character of warfare in the modern age.  Primarily the fact that evidence is becoming nearly insurmountable that we have shifted from offensive primacy through concentrated mass to defensive primacy through denial.
- At Kyiv in Feb of ‘22, the RA had massive mass superiority against an opponent who had not even time to dig in.  RUSI reports show upwards of 12:1 concentrations of RA spearheads to local UA defence, which was largely distributed.  Even accounting for Russian failings, those sort of mass ratios should have blown through whatever defence the UA could mount..and initially it did.
- And then friction kicked in.  Modern warfare, enabled by ubiquitous C4ISR, PGM and deep strike has created friction pressures that in effect break mass.  The ability to project and sustain it in particular.  This combined with a baffling Air Denial dynamic essentially broke the traditional mass concentration ratios.  The UA’s ability to deny air superiority with disparate and ad hoc capability plugged into another ad hoc C4ISR architecture will be studied for decades.  These conditions ensured that however the RA sucked, they had no offsets in the one strength they did have - overwhelming force advantages.
- The northern axis collapsed when the RA was unable to sustain itself.  Russia may suck but no modern army on the planet is built to have its entire LOC infrastructure lit up from space and hit with precision artillery and ATGMs at the ranges experienced.  The fact that the RA undersubscribed the logistic requirement is a combination of sucking and warfare changing.
- Kharkiv was very similar.  The RA was over extended…by emerging modern standard.  They experience corrosive warfare at is zenith as HIMARs got into the game and essentially broke what was left of a logistical system built for another era…Jan ‘22.  The operational collapse at Kharkiv is one for the history books.  How it was established and conducted points to new forms of tactical manoeuvre and exploitation.
- Kherson was a collapse before a full collapse.  In this Russia did learn (after two failures) what collapse was starting to look like.  The pull out may have proceeded in good order but it was also a major operational failure.  Why?  Because of what did not happen (something layman also are prone to miss).  The RA should have been able to turn Kherson into a reverse Mariupol and break the UA on a grinding urban fight.  But they could not…because they were collapsing.  And they still could not establish operational conditions to do otherwise.
- The RA now is benefiting from the shift in character of warfare…not sucking less.  The one thing they did right was put in minefields everywhere.  This multiplied the friction of modern systems dramatically.  To the point that UA mass…wait for it….did not work as it was supposed to.
The RA of today is a shadow of its former self.  Beyond the body count, the high end operational enablers have seen significant attrition.  They are able to hold on and will continue to make tactical offensive just to make a point but they are in no shape for major operational offensive action in their current state.  They are not sucking less, they are better suited to fight in line with what war has become.  Unless the UA buckles and walks away, the RA is able to hold on (maybe) but will take a decade to rebuild itself back to where it was in Feb ‘22.
So “Russia Sux” is only half the story and not even the most important half.   Warfare has fundamentally changed and both sides are grappling with that is why any predictions on what will happen are nearly useless at this point.
But hey we are just guys in a bar talking….

Which "politically savvy Chinese expats" would it be who think this?
I can't say I have a great insight into the political class of China, but I did live there for several years so I can share my experience talking to younger people, both blue collar and white collar types. The_Capt's implication that China intends for Russia to become its hat the same way that that Canada is America's hat feels like a more accurate take to me.
Russians do get a special level of respect in China that other foreigners do not - in fact it was often the first question out of people's mouths when I showed up in their small town or industrial suburb speaking Chinese: "are you Russian?" The stereotype is perhaps that Russian people are the only white foreigners who can both speak decent Chinese and also might have business to do in low class areas. Russians are trusted. Americans are not.
But every Chinese person I spoke to on the topic was also was critical of Russian politics, and saw the fall of USSR as a cautionary tale. This is one of the reasons why "... with Chinese characteristics" is still a major political buzzword. Middle class Chinese who drink the party kool-aid read Animal Farm or watch Chernobyl and see these as indictments of political structures that failed because they weren't imbued with "Chinese characteristics". Working class Chinese just know that that their great party leaders have special wisdom that former Russian leaders did not, which is why China is number 1, and why Russians today all come to China to work or study and make a better life for themselves.
It's certainly possible that people were just trying to say what they thought I wanted to hear - something that happens a lot in China - but the comments seemed fairly consistent. I think perhaps it is wishful thinking from Russian nationalists and western fascists that the current Chinese leadership secretly idolizes Putin.
Recently on this thread people were talking about what a split Russia could look like, and if there had been any historical precedent. It got me thinking about conversations I had with soft critics of the party and they'd often ask me "but what other alternative do we have?" And I'd say maybe China is too big and diverse to have a centralized government, maybe it it would do better if the geographic region we now call China were in fact managed as several smaller states, each with political structures and leaders who understood the local issues better. Just a tip: never say this to a Chinese person unless you want to get into a long discussion about Warring States period, Warlord Era, and why history has apparently proven that the only way there can ever be peace and prosperity in the region is under centralized leadership. It's the party line, but it's how people think, and it informs their views on Russia too.

Wow.  So what I saw:
-  lead tank with rollers got hit by a mine (front driver side) but that did not look like a standard HE mine.  Might have been a shaped charge mine with a delay fuse.  Basically a clever mine fuse that waits a second after being triggered by a roller so it goes off under the vehicle.  Saw a lot of orange/molten which looks more like a shaped charge.
- Rear vehicles got taken out by direct fire systems, likely ATGMs but hard to see.  Assuming ones in the middle also got picked off.  You can see some sort of heavy direct fire tracer flying past.
- Last BMP took a mine strike, pure and simple.  Section and crew bailed out.  UA dropped the sky on them.  First was arty/mortars, then a DPICM.  And then a freakin UAS dropping grenades to finish the job.
- Last finishing hit on lead tank was an ATGM. [edit: actually I think that may have been an FPV]
It actually looks like the RA may have tried smoke but those could also just be other burning vehicles.  UA UAS watched the whole damned thing and likely directed the indirect fire, which was incredibly accurate.  That entire RA unit, looks like a small combat team (Inf Pl with a couple tanks) was completely wiped out.  Maybe a few infantry crawled away but those vehicles are complete write-offs. UA ISR likely picked this attack up after it had been spotted well out by operational ISR.  I doubt that attack was stopped by more than a dozen troops on the UA side, maybe less.

That is why it is so important to get people rotated through the army, with that experience they will never forgive russia.
If they get to keep living in the no war bubble, with parties and all, they will not participate enough to end this war.

For some strange definition of 'bail', perhaps, because that isn't what this article says at all.
...That said, if the below reporting is anywhere close to reality, the Ukrainians are having serious manpower problems which may well be part of why the Western backers are managing expectations down.
Ukraine Military Recruiters Use Harsh Tactics to Fill Ranks (NYT, Dec 2023)
While some believe that high casualty numbers are partially to blame for aggressive conscription tactics, others point to a different reason: many Ukrainian men have either fled or bribed their way out of the draft, leaving a shrinking pool of conscripts, some of whom are supposed to be exempt from mobilization.
War casualties (NYT) Aug 2023
Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops.
The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
Those Ukrainian estimates (for August) are about 20% higher than I would have thought.
But if they are accurate, then while I don't see collapse or mutiny as serious prospects, I wonder whether the UA can keep fighting in the same way it has with increasingly undermanned, exhausted combat troops, even if it switches purely to deep zone defence and attriting LOCs/attack concentrations.
...troops who *may* also start being materially outgunned again in 2024 (define that how you will), whether because Western aid is ebbing, or because the Russians are sourcing more/less wastefully, or both.

For some strange definition of 'bail', perhaps, because that isn't what this article says at all.
...That said, if the below reporting is anywhere close to reality, the Ukrainians are having serious manpower problems which may well be part of why the Western backers are managing expectations down.
Ukraine Military Recruiters Use Harsh Tactics to Fill Ranks (NYT, Dec 2023)
While some believe that high casualty numbers are partially to blame for aggressive conscription tactics, others point to a different reason: many Ukrainian men have either fled or bribed their way out of the draft, leaving a shrinking pool of conscripts, some of whom are supposed to be exempt from mobilization.
War casualties (NYT) Aug 2023
Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops.
The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
Those Ukrainian estimates (for August) are about 20% higher than I would have thought.
But if they are accurate, then while I don't see collapse or mutiny as serious prospects, I wonder whether the UA can keep fighting in the same way it has with increasingly undermanned, exhausted combat troops, even if it switches purely to deep zone defence and attriting LOCs/attack concentrations.
...troops who *may* also start being materially outgunned again in 2024 (define that how you will), whether because Western aid is ebbing, or because the Russians are sourcing more/less wastefully, or both.

1. Shoot and scoot, Ukrainian style.
2. The chance to begin again, in a golden land of opportunity and adventure!
3. Here ya go, brother @Haiduk. Not murder, but a massacre....
4. Good old fashioned wire entanglements. Haven't seen many of these in this war.