LongLeftFlank

I've posted a few of these too, so not judging at all, but the intimate horror of watching human beings die on camera in these videos is something I hope I never become indifferent to, still less regard as entertainment. And I say that as a hunter. 2. Speaking of horror.... The positive news is that, having blown up this plant, the Russians will be unable to use it to manufacture munitions (explosives being kissing cousins to bulk chemicals of course) in the event this war goes 'long'. (note also that this footage may be quite dated, based on the absence of foliage, as pointed out by other Tweeters. But the point remans) 3. 10 days of fighting and the Russians have only just cleared Yarova, maybe. It's in the flatlands. The UA can fight a vicious Monte Cassino defence (low tech, grenade throwers and 81mm mortars) in the rocky wooded massif above Sviatohirsk for weeks if it so chooses before withdrawing across the river. A whole regiment of VDV could bleed out taking this area from a reinforced company of bloody minded Ukrainians. It isn't mech friendly and Katyushas won't pave the way; if you haven't visited Cassino (well worth it!) think Ardennes. Or the Gettysburg 'Devil's Den'

If that happens to be a literal quote, it is epic trolling of Putin by die Reichskänzler!

Yes, that statement is getting a *lot* of press scrutiny right now. Is it KIA, WIA, what? As you know of course, the true question is the *sustainability* of those losses for each side over the next 30 - 60 days. ...Or into the fall/winter? if our longed for Collapse somehow fails to arrive. Which leads directly to the "Collapse" question regarding sustainment of the causative agents. a. The Russian killers are almost entirely artillery and maybe some air strikes. The UA forces tend to be in cover by the look of it; buildings, entrenchments except on the occasions when they get whacked on the move by drones. Which makes them harder targets to hurt, but also more prone to get 'hosed' down by HE once spotted.... b. The Ukrainian killers seem a little more diversified -- ATGWs, sniping, mines -- but still preponderantly artillery. Being on the attack, Russians seem to be caught on the move or in laager more often, but they may also be getting better at avoiding presenting targets. But doctrinally, even their paratroopers remain quite tied to their vehicles. So, using JasonC's old analogy of mortar, gun (or rocket) tubes being fire hoses and the actual limiter being the number of shells/rockets you can truck in to them, how sustainable are these killers? >> Can Side A kill/disrupt enough of Side B's tubes to reduce the volume of incoming? >> Can Side X (and its allies) keep the materiel flowing in? does quality (e.g. accuracy) degrade with time? how much does it matter if the Russians run out of fancy smart stuff and have to revert to 1944 tech? What about fuel? Fuel trucks? Spares? >> Do the belligerents start seriously neutralising (jamming? skeet shooting? drone v drone?) each others' drones in a serious way? raising the number of shells needed per kill back to 20th century levels? >> If the fronts go static, do we see an exponential increase in mine warfare? making attack more costly than ever. (HINT: HELL YES!) The West largely faced crude but effective homemade IEDs in the Stanbox. The Russians can doubtless field vastly more fiendish and lethal devices, even with an impaired industrial base. How many? Can they source key components in volume from unscrupulous suppliers overseas? blah blah blah.... Grim "Arithmetic on the Frontier", as it were, one opinion, framework or model as is good, or irrelevant (e.g. the confounding variable of Will) as another, really.

Guys, I'm actually in the energy / power business and loves me some blueskying as much as the next guy, but could you possibly take that sidebar elsewhere?

Evil genius! I like it!!!!!!

I'm turning in now (Asia), and expect to find about 3 pages of political turning and turning in the widening gyre when I tune in again. Enjoy.... My own take, as nonpartisan as I can make it: Whether you choose to call it the NatSec Community, the Policy Establishment, MIC, the Deep State, the Blob or the Swamp, as @billbindc pointed out, a very remarkable consensus and mobilisation on Ukraine indeed took place in DC and among its closest allies (the Five Eyes). Quite surprising to all concerned, given deepening factionalism and crisis of confidence in America in most other spheres, capped by last year's Kabul debacle. To my mind, that swift consensus was enabled by the cross-institutional 'rule by committee' that seems to have been adopted to cope with both the ahem limitations of the current President, and the, umm, 'eclectic' messaging and methods of the prior President.... And that consensus has deeply disturbed people at both ends of the ideological horseshoe. FWIW

I used to have a rule that kept conversation civil: whoever mentions the 'T' word first, pro or anti buys drinks! So can we please not? ... Anyway, back to the war. More harrowing video and accounts in this thread here from BBC: Mosul levels of destruction here. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61634050

Yeah, while I know the plural of (video) Anecdote is not Data, whenever I see the UA get whacked recently, it seems to be when they're 'acting like Russians', i.e. trying to conduct mechanised movement, as opposed to doing their (unbunched) 'partisans with panzerfausts' thing.... To wit: So in response to your query, it seems like we're hoping the Russians get unable/unwilling to sustain an organised defence more than the Ukes figuring out how to attack with mechanised 'mass'.

At this point I'm starting to wonder whether Putin's "plan B" is to get the professional army killed in Ukraine (and also discredited) so he can hold power in Moscow with the FSB, the mafiyas and Kadyrov's Chechen thugs, or sumfink. With the nukes immunizing Russia from invasion. Just mind boggling.

This is the first source I've run across to state explicitly what is fairly obvious from studying the maps: that with the failure and stallout of the pincer moves, there is no 'cauldron' to be had at Sieverdonetsk! Occupying Siev'sk (while the UA rearguards withdraw in decent order) merely presents the Russians with *another* defensive belt to assault: the river and Lyschansk (on higher ground). And behind that, the fortified (and mined) refineries (Novodruzhesk) and mining works. They don't get into open country for miles yet. 2. Ukr. and Russian sources say ... that there was constant fierce fighting for every street. Ukrainians say that the Russians stormed the city with the forces of up to 25-30 of their best BTGs. 4. The Russians are counting on the fact that it will not be the second #Mariupol for them, because apparently Ukrainian troops, and especially terit. they withdraw. But only the toughest area ahead of them - the industrial zone ....Basically, this is a WW1 Somme or Verdun approach, or the Wehrmacht deciding to punch into the Maginot Line in 1940. And the RuAF still seem to be running a steady BTG per day in KIA and vehicle losses.... So when the hell does the Collapse kick in? P.S. Just noticed, what in the Sam Hill is happening behind RU lines near Mykhailivka????? Bombardment or a non-military fire?

1. And since mid April, Dovhenke STILL continues to be the cork in the bottle for the Russians south of Izyum! Look at the moonscape of craters! Interesting linear barrage pattern though; haven't seen that too much. Remember that Moscow volunteer Shoygu who wrote that long screed about being tossed into a meat grinder? The meat grinder was Dovhenke; he was with 752 MRR / 3 MRD. 2. Intense video (Russian side source) of Russian KUB drone knocking out a UA tank, and the crew bailing. Warning to the squeamish: they intersperse it with brief explicit takes of burn wounds being treated, no idea if it's the stricken crewmen or not. 3. Leningrad Cowboys go Popasna? Since I'm not cruel enough to post the Leningrad Cowboys 'Machine Gun Blues', here's a far better version by Social D.... And I'm already gone, I left a pool of blood and sorrow.... 4. Bombardment of Sloviansk junction has begun, as UA forces in Donbas feel the pressure: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-05-29/ukraine-battlefield-us-weapons-6171449.html (WaPo 29 May) “Seventy people from my battalion were injured in the last week,” said a soldier and ambulance driver .... “All the wounded are coming from shrapnel. Most guys in the trenches haven’t even seen the enemy face-to-face.” If he could send one message to Washington, he said, it would be this: “Help us with weapons. The most important is antiaircraft. Close the sky — it’s the civilians who are suffering the most.” “If Russia doesn’t lose, they won’t have any internal transformation,” Podolyak said. “A Russia that doesn’t lose will, on the contrary, be more chauvinist and have an even more revanchist outlook, because they will hate us for humiliating them in front of the rest of the world ... and, accordingly, in two years they will come back and kill us even more brutally.” 5. Sapper Maksim hard at work and tweeting again. Glad they didn't cashier him for breaking OPSEC with his thread on how he rumbled the river crossing. Mine warfare is brutal stuff (as any Iraq vet will testify), but it pays dividends. But this is why I don't want Ivan to get too comfortable before the UA takes back the country. Mines are nasty things that Russia can still make and sow/scatter by the million....

Graham Chapman's 'British Ambassador to Moscow' skit from the famous 'Cycling Tour' episode has been 'canceled' as culturally insensitive, but there is a classic line: He have heart attack and fall out of window on top of exploding bomb.

Kadyrov's Praetorian gangstas have far more important things to do for Putin than fight Ukrainians....

A bunch of empty tough talk from a guy whose liver should clearly be added to @sburke's KIA list. For a country renowned for mathematics and poetry, where chess is a spectator sport, this barfly rant is pretty pathetic really, from end to end. But I guess that's what I expect from the Urûk Hai general emeritus..... P.S. Follow the siege train. Yet another way Ivan telegraphs his punches.

Possible, but as you know withdrawal of UA forces has been 'preannounced' too many times before (e.g. Lyman, Oskil, Volnovakha). My feeling is that we'll know they really control Sev'sk and the east bank once Lyshansk across the river comes under regular bombardment (the Lyman rule?) Like OSINTTracker previously who started logging damaged T34 war memorials as kills in April, the indefatigable DefMon is hitting a point where he has to inject a little silliness to stay sane....

I may have overdosed on Chomsky/McLuhan and misread, but I think he's discussing the tendency of the public messaging to become a self referential maelstrom, as opposed to the SCI decision information and analysis. ...Although the PR tail can certainly wag that dog at times too (e.g. the monomaniacal focus on enemy body counts in Vietnam, or Coalition casualties in Iraq/Astan). But I also agree, the US natsec apparatus seems to have performed quite creditably to date.

Many thanks for this, again, as always a very interesting read though some of it (what the heck did he mean by Mass again?) makes my brain hurt. I sometimes miss the Eyes / Teeth / Hands thing. ...I thought you (as well as those close to the Mighty Wurlitzer, like @billbindc) might appreciate this snip from a worthy longer thread on the Twitter Wars. The keys go up an' down, the music goes round and round (wo-oh-woah) an' it comes out.... here! P.S. And speaking of It Comes Out Here, this sequence is darkly comical, in a Wile E Coyote kind of way. I've had days when I feel like this.

1. Go shopping, get shelled? Was this a military target? Looks more like a construction site. But then, why park so far away? Who the hell knows. War is hell. 2. But meanwhile it looks like Ukraine is running the table now (with its new US guns) in the sector west of Izyum, joining Kharkiv and Kherson fronts as a place where Ivan is acted upon, no longer acting. Even allowing for video editing prop, these are clearly punishing artillery strikes, taking out a LOT of equipment.(there's more in the thread) Russians just won't disperse in laager, will they? 3. Meanwhile, it looks very much to me like the RA is building up for an intensive bombardment of Sloviansk, which is a key road/rail junction for sustaining the UA Donbas salient. Kiev Independent had 2 reports, one of a buildup of 120 new 'pieces of equipment' and another re withdrawal of mobile forces from the Lyman area. There was also a report of PMP bridging equipment, but I find it doubtful that they will have the forces to seriously attempt a river crossing in the Lyman sector, even once they finally clear the north bank.

This pro-Russian blogger is geolocating film clips of the Russian advance into eastern Severodonetsk, including the power plant which lately was the site of a hard fight. His editorial viewpoint is wevs, but his product is very CM-reminiscent. It gives a good flavour of the 'map' and battlespace. Note however that the RA have already occupied these areas, so this isn't combat footage. Sievierodonetsk has been on the front lines for months now, so I imagine there is some kind of defensive crust in the town. OSINTAggregator does love his Giant Red (and Blue) Arrows of Doom lol....

Patrick Stewart has volunteered for the UA foreign legion?! P.S. Bog willing, those Slovak guns last longer than the S400 system they kindly sent previously, and which I understand (from Russian sources, but it's credible) was promptly blown to bits by cruise missiles at Dnipro Airport. In other celebrity news, Legolas is fighting for the UA as well. Hide the mûmakil, yrch!

Ha, with T72Bs now joining the 62s and BMP1s, if the US throws in some NG M60s on top of the Leopard 1s and M113s, maybe we'll need to hound @Bil Hardenberger and @The_Capt for a new CMCW module instead of Steve and Charles!

I hope you're right, Steve. For the sake of Ukraine, first and foremost. But also for the sake of the Russian and Siberian and Caucasian kids whose lives are being thrown away so wantonly by an evil elite that views them as cattle. History, of course, suggests things could drag on, against all sense and reason, for much longer than we think.... Even Comrade Lenin underestimated both the anguish of that 900 mile long front, and our cursed capacity for suffering. ... But of course this is not the old Russia, with infinite numbers of hardy peasant boys to fling into the firing line. Also, the Ukrainians are every bit as hardy, and fighting much smarter.

Good post. Your last bit on Ukraine being cautious in its attacks is the key open question.

Russia has inflated the Autopilot! He actually looks more like Stan's dad from South Park. So Putin needs to fill THIS gap with new cannon fodder....

Ha, DefMon has joined the Drive To Azov club!