LongLeftFlank

Reuniting the 'Axis of Weasels?' And as usual, Galeev has these kinds of weak people zeroed....

I like the little 'orc' icons. (this may be coincidence, but in the pre Peter Jackson era, AD&D depicted orcs as 'pig men'). May it go for the Wagnerites as Khrushchev said of a different battle: The next three days will be terrible. Either we hold out, or the Germans take Kursk. They are staking everything on one card. It's a matter of life and death for them. We must ensure that they break their necks.

Your last few posts gave me a chuckle. But note we are already entering the 4th decade of the Pacific century, if you count, as I do, from GHW Bush vomiting into the lap of the Japanese PM in 1991. As you'll recall, back then the Imperial Palace grounds were assessed as being worth more than all of California or Canada, and Sony and Lexus were redefining their technologies. ...America came back during the tech/web revolution of course, but then promptly used it to de-job/offshore about 2/3 of the Western middle classes. So in addition to the reclaiming by China of its historical proportion of about 1/3 of humanity's GDP, you also have the South Asian diaspora flooding the world with low cost, high quality technical talent. Anyway, off topic....

I overpost Galeev, but if anyone has a better source for such things (other than footnoting whole textbooks), please link it. Meanwhile, despairing young national-idealist Comrade Shayga -- a future Strelnikov? -- ....decries the decline in the (fondly remembered, as a child) Moral Fibre of the Great Russian Nation (or was that USSR?): ...In the early 2000's - it was a different society in Russia, there were many times more kind, humane, sincere people... These days you can be incredibly kind, decent, honest and sincere, but if you have no money, no success, then you are seen in the Russian society as a nobody.... Ah, the eternal lament of the social conservative (or deeply frustrated member of the 'striving' classes) who turns to fascism. Galeev's general topic in this thread is the ongoing pillage of Russian resources -- there really isn't another economy worth noting there -- by its apatrid managerial crony class of 'Varyags'. (Not very different from what McKinsey and PE types are up to pretty much everywhere else now, btw while mouthing 'progressive' pieties)

See, part of the beauty here is that it doesn't actually *have* to attack, or even roll in the full unit. Just let the troops get a whiff of grapeshot while the Russians run themselves ragged (yet more) trying to counter the threat, at the expense of other fronts. Interior line asymetry, like a force of nature. Pure Sun Tzu....

I was expecting Michael Palin to cycle by or something

Many thanks, this series is very important reading. This guy is a relative rarity; an educated Russian who volunteered for the colours. But I'm not sure whether this is his samizdat. or just another flavour of Strelkov. Our division's zampolit once spoke to us after we refused to go into assaults.... He was confident we all came to fight in Ukraine for money, and that if any of us was making more than 120,000 rubles a month in Russia, then we wouldn't come here. What can be said about this? But of course, the 'Banderites' are evil.... They also said that they saw how once our guys got captured and were walked across a field by the banderites. Ours decided to strike all of them with ATGMs - both ours and Ukrainians, just so ours wouldn't get captured and tortured. In my opinion that was the right thing to do, it's better to die instantly like that than be tortured for days in the hands of these inhumans. ***** 'Happy men don't volunteer.' Most of them were in their first good pair of boots. When the boots wore out, they'd be ready to listen.

Hey, nobody here is arguing that the UA has lost its mojo! East of Izyum, since early May! So 'Partisans With Panzerfausts' is still very much a thing!

Good summary here by Schlottman: Situation map by DefMon3.

...Said absolutely nobody on this board. I can't speak for the NYT editorial board.... But good posts, Steve. Let's see how it plays out.

The Red Army was total pants from the 1940 winter war through URANUS as well, but that was cold comfort to the forces trapped in the Korsun pockket. I have heard, and contributed to, all the arguments that Russia cannot 'succeed' or endure a long draw. But if they dig in in Donbas and the land bridge, and the UA can't readily dislodge them cuz reasons, there's a clock ticking for both teams. Ukrainian will to fight 1917 is not infinite and Western will to sustain the bloodshed is not a given either. And in time, do BTGs kitted out with Chinese 99 tanks and gun systems begin appearing?

None taken mate! and no, I'm not wobbly I was just reacting to the 'ah, don't worry, the Ivans are sure to eff this up as well' statements. While meanwhile @Haiduk is reporting some very real consternation from the ground there. So I popped some red smoke, people responded and I think we are all now looking at this more soberly. Cheers!

Sorry guys, gonna throw a contrarian bomb again here. Have at it! ... I personally find the quick takes so far to be a little overconfident, even smug, in that British sense (never a good sign). 1. If developments should prove me wrong, e.g. the latest RA push dissolves into chaos under saturation UA artillery, plus its (usual) logistical c-fk into another bloody 'MARS' debacle (just as their river crossing fiasco became their 'Ozereyka Bay'), then by all means do feel free to gloat.I will be the first to cheer along with you. 2. But for this observer, a forced evacuation by UA of its 2014 Donbas fortified lines cannot be readily 'spun' as anything but a strategic UA defeat and a desperately needed Russian 'victory'. That is regardless of the cost, whose accounting truly matters only to Moscow, frankly. I take it as given they will eventually start arguing for a cease fire, and "facts on the ground" will matter, a lot. 3. As of today, all the handwavy confident theories and Twitter anecdata we keep sharing here (me included!) from 2-3 echelons up seem to amount to 'the Russian is finished.' or 'just kick in the door and the whole rotten structure caves in'. Saying it just don't make it so, any more than it did for the original theorist in question. And believe you me, I've been deeply immersed in those theories since Day One, and patiently waiting for them to show up in force! 5. So, show us, please! those systemic 'imminent collapse' theories in train, today, on the ground. Today! Not in some vague future halcyon period that happens, umm, over the summer once the UA finally gluts itself with NATO armaments and knowhow, while entire RA units actually mutiny or defect en masse (not just anecdotally), and huge banners and crowds preaching 'Peace Bread and Land' appear in Red Square. 6. This is a tactical wargaming board. It looks very much to me like the Russians have just turned the tables, operationally if not yet tactically. By finally 'securing' Donbas plus the land bridge, in the very way they said they would do back in March, once it became clear their Czechoslovakia putsch to take the whole country had explosively s&&t the bed.... 7. Meanwhile the UA, for all our fond hopes and armchair projecting, shows no sign yet of being able to mount counterattacks above local/ battalion scale, sustained for about 3 days march (on foot!). Such 18th century tactics will simply not suffice to recover the 20% of their territory in Russian hands today, once those bastards dig in. Yes, there is no question they will figure it out, this particular 'tech' predates gunpowder. And Russians are historically masters at this art. 8. I am an amateur in military matters, but I am also a businessman with 25 years experience in emerging markets (many of them 'frontier', which is to say, distressed). If the above situation 'congeals' into a cease fire, it will leave Ukraine as a devastated and impoverished no-mans land, far worse off than 2014. Bloodlands 2022. Not a bulwark or entrepot for modern Europe. No private capital will dare to invest there. Ukraine might as well reach an arrangement with Putin at that point. ...And because they realise, as I do, that we can still lose this war. [/Gauntlet thrown.]

Polish military analyst on Popasna. In spite of the translation step, I like his mapwork. Another short thread about Popasna. Many commentators see this breach as a catastrophe for the Ukrainian army and the Severodonestk - Lysychansk 'cauldron'. Indeed, the threat is great. The Russians desire a strategic breakthrough on this front, but there is also a risk that they will jump into the fire. On the one hand, the defeat of their crossing on Donets and the desire to expunge it, on the other hand, the longed-for surrender of Azovstal give them an injection of optimism and energy. But let's look at similar events at Izyum. On a 37 km front, the Russians broke through in several places by crossing Donets. They entered the depth of about 25 km and were then bogged down under the fire of Ukrainian artillery. So far out of Popasna, from a front about 7 km wide, the Russians broke 20 km to the west and 10 km to the north (they do not control the road yet). If they do not broaden the base, e.g. the road to Troitske, then they will not be able to pour a large amount of equipment and Popasna may become a trap for the Russian army. Even a repeat of Izyum if the Ukrainians pull up enough artillery.

Fairly major development in Donbas over the last day. 1. I actually agree that OsintAggregator has been out over his skis before, but I guess this will be a good benchmark case. And as I said before, his maps are very useful if you take the big red arrows with several grains of salt..... 2. possible corroboration from DefMon3, he retweeted an hour ago. 3. FWIW, here is an assessment by a pro-Russian Israeli analyst, worth a skim. Not endorsing its conclusions though. In keeping with my general efforts to check 'the other side of the hill, I've checked out his stuff before. While Zimerman's logic/pitch sounds rigorous, if you read back in his feed, you'll find a number of his confident calls in the past have gone horribly wrong on the ground.... A word on the salient south of #Popasna, that often gets overlooked. Using livemap (typically a bit outdated & w a UA bias). Firstly, this salient is very important for several reasons. The blue are represents a general heavily fortified area of the Ukrainian front. It guards the critical junctions of Bakhmut and Kostyantynivka. The Horlivka (RU) front, has not moved very much the entire war due to these heavy entrenchments. Note the two main roads south from Bakhmut that feed this front. Also note the important railway from Poapsna (now under RU control). Finally, two important cities, Svitlodarsk & Myronivskyi are behind this front. It would be very difficult for RU to attempt to take these by frontal attack. Cutting off one of these roads would be a strong blow to this front & both would be fatal. Background behind us, note the developments. Thick red lines indicate recent developments. Thin lines one of many potential future ones. #Troitske has been captured by RU forces rendering strong UA positions in the east untenable. As I commented on previously, RU was unlikely to concentrate an advance on Bakhmut at first, and more likely to start surrounding it in order to avoid heavy urban combat at this time & achieve the effect of capturing the hub by dominating the individual axis. The Popasna - Bakhmut is heavily fortified.... They have taken larger towns than that thus far, but it seems to me that surrounding it in such conducive territory for the act would make more sense and avoid much death & destruction. Popasna, which is a bit smaller than Bakhmut, took a very long time to capture. Now that it was (captured), note the localized collapse it is leading to. Actually trapping the forces on this large front would require a second pincer. A breakout from W or NW Horlivka. But smaller encirclements are still possible if the UA forces refuse to retreat.... The general idea by the Russian forces will be to advance west behind the Ukrainian fortification & not head on through them (see thread images). Hopefully will get to the arguably more interesting update on the northern (Popasna) salient recent developments. 4. Schlottman here, on Russia still being Russia, i.e. reinforcing breakthrough, heedless of the costs elsewhere. But can the beans and bullets keep up with that doctrine given Russia's performance to date?

Skoda Works in da house....

Very important, and bears repeating. In much the same way, the Battle of Britain was much closer fought than was reported at the time, even though the Luftwaffe never had any real prospect of 'winning' (in terms of clearing the skies for an invasion). I'm not very interested in propaganda, Minister. If we're right, they'll give up. If we're wrong, they'll be in London in a week. ...I too have the uneasy feeling that Ukrainian losses are quite heavy. The command level may also not yet be up to waging more complex offensive operations. What we are still seeing today in the way of UA attacks is mainly battalion (CM) scale infantry operations Tito or Giap would have known how to fight. The primary evolution since March has been in the artillery arm. Happy to be proven wrong on this, if anyone is aware of counterexamples... **** 2. Here's Strelkov's latest. Both us and Ukrainians are entrenching. And... THIS IS VERY BAD! Why? We will again need to wage fierce bloody fights for each village, every grove and every high-rise... pay with Russian blood for every few hundred meters conquered.... The "attrition battle" (as I have repeatedly noted - as a military decision, I rate it no higher than "idiotic") in the Donbas continues and the "strategic impasse" (for the RF Armed Forces, but not for the UAF, who are gaining time) is getting deeper.... Especially it's meaningless to hope for victory through attrition taking into account that almost all of Europe and North America are acting as a rear for UAF. Thus, it will be necessary to try and defeat the enemy in field battles. And, excuse me, with whom, and with what?! If so far not even the partial mobilisation has been carried out? 3. Varyag Valkyrie.

The Syrian SAA preferred the 73mm HE chucker to the autocannon for shooting up buildings, for obvious reasons.

I agree re the salt, but it's mainly because he seems to draw in part from Russian sources, who of course tend to overclaim, massively. His editorial content is consistently . And I also find his maps very good in terms of a proper scale for the actions in question, so long as you discount the 'Big Red Arrows'

Sorry about my flurry of posts, but most folks here seem happy to wheel in the sky over Western bougie ADD politix *yawn*. How many divisions does Bono have? This is some really great CM 'Level 4' style video, though somewhat edited: Tanks vs UA rocketeers up near Kharkiv. The Russian tank is guarding an infantry position, but the muzhiks can't be arsed to leave their holes to help their tank out. Even the VDV, who as paratroopers are trained to use initiative and operate in small ad hoc detachments with what they can carry, seem tied to their BMDs. Legacy of the Afgantsy and Chechen period, I guess.

OK, Russian Bizarro looking glass world has officially jumped the shark. RT talking heads comparing Mariupol to Stalingrad, and the Donbas offensive to Kursk. You DO remember, don't you? that the attacker lost both those battles, catastrophically.... But suddenly I viddied, that thinking was for the Gloopy Ones, and the Omni Ones use, like, Inspiration, and what Bog sends!

French analyst has the same read on our old friend Dovhenke as you did a month ago, @Combatintman. Perhaps he reads here lol. The stubborn 'cork in the bottle' for the Izyum-Sloviansk highway.

Spanish feed, generally neutral in its coverage between UK and RU. But just look at these ragamuffins fighting in the built up areas around their Popasna 'break-in'. For those who want to take a look at the #Avdiivka areas where combat is fought and understand why the Ukrainians manage to withstand such a punishment, here are some images. Donbas is not an open country fight; it is more like the Aachen or Breslau battles. One built up area after another, all zeroed in by the UA and probably heavily mined. Lots of industrial complexes and buildings. A nearly perfect killscape to bleed an army to death, day by day.

Fun read from Dupuy Institute, with links, discussing the famed "3:1" ratio so beloved by game geeks raised on CRTs. D back 2!

As noted previously, after spending most of May, RA forces are finally reaching the Seviersky Donetz river line northeast of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk, and (it seems) bringing the key supply junction for UA forces in Donbas under long range fire. I doubt 'cut off' (this last is a pro-Russian Yemeni feed)